In the AFC the only way it's not the Pats is if their offensive line issues continue -- they've obviously shown they're vulnerable when you can get to Brady, and while I think they'll cruise to 13 wins with their soft schedule a team that can get to the QB and put up some points (ala most of the other contenders in the AFC, Texans, Ravens, Steelers etc) on their own could easily knock them off.
In the NFC it's up for grabs -- I think the conference is loaded to be honest. That said, I think Packers have most talent, so that's where I'll go, although Giants, Bears, or Eagles wouldn't surprise me.
49ers are so overrated. Will regress to the mean this year. 10 wins max.
Houston is very soft. They played a bit better vs Baltimore in the Playoffs last year, but I believe that was the upper limit of what they could do.
Andre Johnson is not going to be the AJ of old. He's going to be 30 years old, and coming off a major injury. They have a great RB stable, and that's going to be their bread and butter, but I can't see them being able to beat the Baltimores and Pittsburghs of the league.
Their defense is talented, but they're still soft in the secondary. We'll see if Connor Barwin is the real deal, and if the loss of MW will matter.
And most of all, their coach is very "Norv Turner". Great coordinator, not a great HC, IMO.
I predict they win the division, followed up with a crushing playoff loss.