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Thread: some numbers on just how bad our D is

  1. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by SMC View Post
    I think 3 weeks is too early to look at statistics, either team wide or individual and pass judgment. Ther's just not enough data.

    Eight weeks is a good judge IMO, because after 8 weeks it is harder to change the trajectory of the statistical breakdown.

    Either a team/player has to greatly overperform or underperform for the final 8 games for their stats to be markedly different at the end of the season.
    I posted the info to give some objective proof for what my eyes had been telling me all along as I watched the games.

    Yes three games in is too early to make conclusions about how the 2012 season will go. Yet this downward defensive slide is a continuation of how things were going last season. And with Revis now out, I fear it could get worse.

    Regression to the mean suggests we'll get better at most of these defensive rankings. And frankly I don't see how we could get much worse. But unfortunately I'm somewhat led to believe that the likely outcome for the season is a far more mediocre final defensive ranking (maybe 12 - 16 ) than anyone here predicted at the start of the year. Most believed that the Jets D would be at least top 5 if not even #1 (myself included).

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    I started it Ironingfan. I'm sorry you're confused
    If we are going to talk about the Jets then lets talk reasonable. Don't ask me nothing stupid .

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by lageman4ever View Post
    I posted the info to give some objective proof for what my eyes had been telling me all along as I watched the games.

    Yes three games in is too early to make conclusions about how the 2012 season will go. Yet this downward defensive slide is a continuation of how things were going last season. And with Revis now out, I fear it could get worse.

    Regression to the mean suggests we'll get better at most of these defensive rankings. And frankly I don't see how we could get much worse. But unfortunately I'm somewhat led to believe that the likely outcome for the season is a far more mediocre final defensive ranking (maybe 12 - 16 ) than anyone here predicted at the start of the year. Most believed that the Jets D would be at least top 5 if not even #1 (myself included).
    Well a big part of the problem is that we had Revis for only two halves. Pouha was out one game, and then was not himself last game. He normally takes two blockers. Then add in that Thomas has been hurt, and Coples has been on the bench along with Ellis and you have a D line that is getting at least one man pushed off the line on most plays. That normally doesn't happen to us and it makes the LBs look much better. I would only use Pace as a rush end at this point. Dixon has been pushed off almost every snap he was in, and he's gone. Hopefully Pouha is back in form, and/or Ellis plays more and consistently. Either way Ellis and Coples should be in on pass plays. Wikerson was doubled most of last game, and he peeked in the backfield too much in the first half, but he played very well in the second half. I belive they will play better.

  4. #104
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    Well a big part of the problem is that we had Revis for only two halves. Pouha was out one game, and then was not himself last game. He normally takes two blockers. Then add in that Thomas has been hurt, and Coples has been on the bench along with Ellis and you have a D line that is getting at least one man pushed off the line on most plays. That normally doesn't happen to us and it makes the LBs look much better. I would only use Pace as a rush end at this point. Dixon has been pushed off almost every snap he was in, and he's gone. Hopefully Pouha is back in form, and/or Ellis plays more and consistently. Either way Ellis and Coples should be in on pass plays. Wikerson was doubled most of last game, and he peeked in the backfield too much in the first half, but he played very well in the second half. I belive they will play better.
    I'm sure they will get better as well. It's just that I don't think the group is going to be anywhere near DOMINANT this year as we had all hoped. And that's true even if we didn't lose Revis.

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by lageman4ever View Post
    I posted the info to give some objective proof for what my eyes had been telling me all along as I watched the games.

    Yes three games in is too early to make conclusions about how the 2012 season will go. Yet this downward defensive slide is a continuation of how things were going last season. And with Revis now out, I fear it could get worse.

    Regression to the mean suggests we'll get better at most of these defensive rankings. And frankly I don't see how we could get much worse. But unfortunately I'm somewhat led to believe that the likely outcome for the season is a far more mediocre final defensive ranking (maybe 12 - 16 ) than anyone here predicted at the start of the year. Most believed that the Jets D would be at least top 5 if not even #1 (myself included).
    Without a PASSRUSH AND Revis I strongly agree with you. It is hard to watch 10 minute drives against our defense. I am learning to resent REX. Coaching Counts! I try to be an optimist about the Jets but he is turning me against him. I hate when he brags about being the best DC in football etc. He is a HC. Emulate the Harbaugh's and stfu and just win!

    I am also inclinded to wish that Tanny be terminated forthwith and BILL POLIAN be hired to replace him. We MUST get a real GM who can spot talent and hire coaches who can coach that talent into SB Champs!

    I see that we use the PS like a revolving door of talent. That has got to hurt the development of young players. One week they are here learning; then they are cut; and then they are brought back! It must hurt the development of players to be treated like that!

    Parcells used to say- " You are what your record says it is". In our case we are 2 and 1 but are we that good? I hope that we are but I just don't know!

  6. #106
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    Pouha was getting pushed off the line by one man when he normally anchors two men. McIntyre was physically handled last week, and Harris has been missing a lot of tackles. Pace while he is always in position, and handles his man at the line, is just so slow at this point that it allows them to recover. The McIntyre experiment may be over soon. Harris is normally a great form tackler so I can't expect it to continue. Pouha either will recover, or be replaced by Ellis who is a beast. Wilkerson is getting double teamed and handling it great. His biggest problem is that he sometimes looks for the ball. When he stays down and uses his technique he is a monster. With Pouha back, or Ellis in this will be a mismatch. Coples is also a beast, but seems a little tentative like he's not sure if he's in position or not. He definitely needs to be out in passing situations though. So we need to try someone besides McIntyre, and Pace. We need Pouha healthy, and need to play Coples, and Ellis more. That's what I see.
    Well put, good summary. Forget the SOJF's. Same old, same old.The D will not be allowed to put up mediocre performances week in week out.

  7. #107
    good points all. they just changed personnel on the dline and lb's in getting rid of thomas and bringing in ellis and coples. maybe coples' expectations were a bit high given his draft position but he will come around. he's not gholston mk 2. and ellis? the jail time no doubt took him out of his game a bit. and let's not forget the doltfins do have a decent oline.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ray Ray19 View Post
    Some facts to consider that deludes these numbers.

    Spiller gained over 100 yds on two carries in the first game when the score was 41-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter, and the team went into pro bowl mode/extended garbage time.

    Jets stopped the Steelers for 28 carries for 66 yds against a physical OL and RB's

    The Miami game, the team had to adjust twice and any game in Miami in September is a dog fight, the heat, the elements in that game, the defense was running on fumes by the end of the game. Factor in OT play and the team played for nearly 70 minutes. Bush started fast but then the defense clamped down. Thomas had 60 yds on 19 carries, Miami does have a strong OL, they kept going back to the run when the passing game was ineffective.

    It's week 3 of the season, these numbers are deluded.

    A better story will be available after week 8.

  8. #108
    The only game I was disappointed with the QB pressure was the Miami game. They seemed to get a log of hits and pressures on Fitzpatrick and Rothlesberger. Fitzpatrick got rid of the ball quick and is known for never getting sacked, and Rothlesberger broke away from like 5 sacks. Not sure what happened in the Miami game.

    I'm stilled not concerned with our D stopping the run. I'm sure by the end of the year it will be where it needs to be. We stuffed the Steelers running game and all of the Bills runs came on shotgun draw plays when we were up by 30. It's not like we are giving up 4 yard gains consistently, the numbers are skewed because of some long runs from busted plays. That's my feeling anyway. I'll bet we are in the top 10 against the run by seasons end. I thought this D would be impossible to run on coming into this season. Reggie Bush/CJ Spiller type players that bounce plays to the outside are the defenses weakness. We've played those 2 guys and they burned us (again, Spiller was in garbage time), the other team we shut down. Pretty sure any team that faced Bush and Spiller in the first 3 weeks would not have great run defense stats. Bush averaged 5 you against Houston, and Spiller has shredded everyone.

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by IRONFAN 40 View Post
    Realest ?? Quick run for cover .
    LOL that's exactly what I was thinking... You can't speak the truth here without getting

  10. #110
    Ravens D has been horrible through first 3 games as well. No one cares after 3 weeks and 2 wins. Means nothing.

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ray Ray19 View Post
    Hmmm... ok you have my intrigue, I don't know what you're talking about.

    Being frustrated and unhappy is never a gripe of mine, we're all fans, we all want the same goal for the team.

    My lack of patience is with those that just throw up their hands and lash out and don't try to see the bigger picture, or those that try to paint a more gloomy picture than the reality of the team's situation.

    All coaches have their way, I happen to love Rex's way in how he operates, his no-nonsense style mixed in with an unorthodox and off-the-cuff brashness is something we really haven't seen in the NFL. To me, Rex is a really emotional guy, wears it all on his sleeve, he's confident and hates to lose, when he does, you can read it all over his face and then some. He's genuine, which for me, is huge, because there are too many coaches who put up a front and bull**** their way through their jobs. Rex isn't unlike any other coach though, he and his methods are all susceptible to losing as any other, but it's how he handles himself. When the team loses, I know he's pissed, and he will do anything and everything to fix it, and I believe the team buys in to a lot of what he does, they play hard for him, and love playing for him, that to me is a mark of a good coach, once a coach loses his team, i.e. Herm, it's a lost cause. I see a team that is always motivated, always plays hard, and loves to play on a Rex Ryan Jets football team, that doesn't make them immune to mistakes, it also doesn't mean I don't think Rex has/will/can make mistakes.
    I am not as down on Rex as some on here are but he needs to demonstrate that he is working on the parts of his own game that were weak when he got the job. Right now the apple is not falling far from the tree in terms of his MO. A coach who the defensive players on the team would run thorugh a brick wall for but one who has little or no relationship to players on the offensive side of the ball. We are in the same division as the mad professor and Rex needs to show that he is working on his own game and he needs to show that he is the BOSS of the ENTIRE team and not just one half of it.

    My problem is with Mike Tannenbaum who I think is in the wrong job. I think he is completely over matched. He should have gotten the boot at the same time as Eric Mangini IMO. He has pursued an approach to running this franchise that is all about short term gratification at the expense of the long term health of the team. We are reaping that harvest now in terms of the lack of depth across the board and washed up free agents who we are continuing to pay. THey have tried to distract the public from the internal rot inside this roster by giving us more flashy media whoring moves during the offseason the same way they have done every other offseason since Mike T. has been in charge. We the fans are not stupid and he is trying to sell us the same thing over and over again.

    In terms of this thread and the defense, for those who really watched the games the defense has not actually been as good as the top line ranking for some time. In the biggest parts of the biggest games they have been conspicuously unable to get a stop when we desperately needed them to get a stop. This was true two years ago and it was really true last year. If you watched this team every week you know this. This year I know it is early but the decline appears to be precipitous. Right now we cannot tackle, we cannot get to the QB and we cannot cover receivers over the middle. Our Linebackers may be the slowest unit in the entire NFL and yet there are people on here who still like to claim that this is an elite defense. I simply do not know what team it is that they are watching.

    Will it get better from 29th? Sure it will but that does not mean it will be anything like elite.

  12. #112
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    Flacco uses Rice as such a crutch...Sanchez doesn't have anything remotely resembling such an option when Greene's the RB out there

  13. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingofNY View Post
    LOL that's exactly what I was thinking... You can't speak the truth here without getting
    You can, but if you think they suck, and that the coaches, or GM need to be fired then maybe you should have the details to back up your opinions. If you just keep screaming, "look at me I'm upset and I want some attention." then you will get it.

  14. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by JamaicanJetFan View Post
    Flacco uses Rice as such a crutch...Sanchez doesn't have anything remotely resembling such an option when Greene's the RB out there
    Couldn't agree more. One reason why I want to see more Powell and McKnight on offense more. They both have good hands.

  15. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by lageman4ever View Post
    I posted the info to give some objective proof for what my eyes had been telling me all along as I watched the games.

    Yes three games in is too early to make conclusions about how the 2012 season will go. Yet this downward defensive slide is a continuation of how things were going last season. And with Revis now out, I fear it could get worse.

    Regression to the mean suggests we'll get better at most of these defensive rankings. And frankly I don't see how we could get much worse. But unfortunately I'm somewhat led to believe that the likely outcome for the season is a far more mediocre final defensive ranking (maybe 12 - 16 ) than anyone here predicted at the start of the year. Most believed that the Jets D would be at least top 5 if not even #1 (myself included).
    Dont mistake my point, I agree with the regression argument because even last year with a top 5 D, they were worse on 3rd down and other aspects compared to years past.

    That said, 3 games is still not enpugh data to definitively say that such regression will proceed.

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by EM31 View Post
    I am not as down on Rex as some on here are but he needs to demonstrate that he is working on the parts of his own game that were weak when he got the job. Right now the apple is not falling far from the tree in terms of his MO. A coach who the defensive players on the team would run thorugh a brick wall for but one who has little or no relationship to players on the offensive side of the ball. We are in the same division as the mad professor and Rex needs to show that he is working on his own game and he needs to show that he is the BOSS of the ENTIRE team and not just one half of it.

    My problem is with Mike Tannenbaum who I think is in the wrong job. I think he is completely over matched. He should have gotten the boot at the same time as Eric Mangini IMO. He has pursued an approach to running this franchise that is all about short term gratification at the expense of the long term health of the team. We are reaping that harvest now in terms of the lack of depth across the board and washed up free agents who we are continuing to pay. THey have tried to distract the public from the internal rot inside this roster by giving us more flashy media whoring moves during the offseason the same way they have done every other offseason since Mike T. has been in charge. We the fans are not stupid and he is trying to sell us the same thing over and over again.

    In terms of this thread and the defense, for those who really watched the games the defense has not actually been as good as the top line ranking for some time. In the biggest parts of the biggest games they have been conspicuously unable to get a stop when we desperately needed them to get a stop. This was true two years ago and it was really true last year. If you watched this team every week you know this. This year I know it is early but the decline appears to be precipitous. Right now we cannot tackle, we cannot get to the QB and we cannot cover receivers over the middle. Our Linebackers may be the slowest unit in the entire NFL and yet there are people on here who still like to claim that this is an elite defense. I simply do not know what team it is that they are watching.

    Will it get better from 29th? Sure it will but that does not mean it will be anything like elite.
    The safeties have been substantially improved, and we drafted a new MLB and a new DE. Last year we got a stud, DE, and DT. We are lacking at OLB, but that's it. Pace got old quickly. Thomas hasn't played yet, but I don't expect too much from him either. We need to start trying some different guys at OLB, and/or start playing more 4 man fronts. Tanny didn't injure Revis, or Pouha. We have to see how they will manage without Revis, and hopefully Pouha gets better. We are transitioning from the old guard. You can't expect it to be completely seamless, but it's not as if they are doing nothing. We are covering receivers over the middle. I don't know what you're watching. We aren't tackling as well because blockers have been getting to the second level. We need to shore up the line, and get a pass rush. The pass rush is Coples, and olb. I'd say either Sapp, or Maybin. Maybin looks like he forgot all the new pass rush moves he learned. Maybe Pace should be on the line in a 43 instead olb. He's been playing in Thomas' spot so we'll see how he does moved back to the weak side. Ellis, a healthy Pouha, and losing Dixon should fix the run defense.

  17. #117
    Slow linebackers are killing our defense: Pace, Scott, BT even David Harris looks like he's lost a step. Even moreso than the Revis injury.

    No wonder all the Eric Smith-lovers want to see that clown move to LB. He'd fit right in with those old slow pokes.

  18. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by detjetsfan View Post
    Slow linebackers are killing our defense: Pace, Scott, BT even David Harris looks like he's lost a step. Even moreso than the Revis injury.

    No wonder all the Eric Smith-lovers want to see that clown move to LB. He'd fit right in with those old slow pokes.
    BT hasn't even played. Perfectly shows your ignorance.

  19. #119
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    BT hasn't even played. Perfectly shows your ignorance.
    Well I guess if by "hasn't even played" you mean Bryan Thomas didn't start week 1 at OLB before getting cut then I guess yeah you're right in your own little world.

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    The safeties have been substantially improved, and we drafted a new MLB and a new DE. Last year we got a stud, DE, and DT. We are lacking at OLB, but that's it. Pace got old quickly. Thomas hasn't played yet, but I don't expect too much from him either. We need to start trying some different guys at OLB, and/or start playing more 4 man fronts. Tanny didn't injure Revis, or Pouha. We have to see how they will manage without Revis, and hopefully Pouha gets better. We are transitioning from the old guard. You can't expect it to be completely seamless, but it's not as if they are doing nothing. We are covering receivers over the middle. I don't know what you're watching. We aren't tackling as well because blockers have been getting to the second level. We need to shore up the line, and get a pass rush. The pass rush is Coples, and olb. I'd say either Sapp, or Maybin. Maybin looks like he forgot all the new pass rush moves he learned. Maybe Pace should be on the line in a 43 instead olb. He's been playing in Thomas' spot so we'll see how he does moved back to the weak side. Ellis, a healthy Pouha, and losing Dixon should fix the run defense.
    I have been as hopeful about Kenrick Ellis as anyone on these boards but I think it is a stretch to call him a stud at this point. Wilkerson looks like he will turn into a Shaun Ellis type which would be a wonderful outcome but outside of a golden playoff game in New England Shaun Ellis was not a game changer. I do not expect Mo to be a game changer either. Unless Coples fulfills his promise and quickly we will still be left in the same spot we have been in since Abe left. Not being able to get to the QB and eventually getting picked apart because of that. Maybin? Who the heck knows with him.

    The safeties are a huge improvement and if they stay healthy that is indeed a big upgrade for the defense (this year). Can they stay healthy?

    The linebackers are a year older and a few yards slower. David Harris seems to be slower than even I remember him and until or unless Demario Davis steps up and shows he is capable we have an old, slow and unfortunately a very poor tackling LB corps. That is exactly what they are until they prove they are not. I think we are at least one first day LB draft pick away from having even a competent LB corps let alone a good one.

    The CBs are a bit of a mess quite frankly. Darelle Revis made everyone better of course but let's face it, Antonio Cromartie has spent his entire career being vulnerable to receivers who can change direction quickly. Good against burners and actually pretty bad against Santonio Holmes type receivers. He gambles often by holding excessively and if the refs are calling the holding tightly what day.... Anyway, now the we have Cro and Wilson as our starting corners I think you have to assume we have and average to substandard unit unless someone surprises.

    I think Rex needs to dial back up the exotic blitz schemes and other defensive trickery here in 2012 because I do not think this unit has the talent to beat their opposing players straight up.

    In short I think it is going to take at least a year for the DL kids to blossom and I think we are undermanned and over aged at LB. We need to draft again there. We are crossing our fingers that one or more of the younger safeties or cornerbacks step up because the team has urgent needs elsewhere and is unlikely to go CB in the draft any time soon. Landry will either crap out with an injury of be very very expensive next year if he has an injury-free year this year. Pace and Scott and BT are gone after this season. Where are the replacements? McEntyre?

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