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Thread: October Suprise #1: Unemployment Falls Below 8.0%

  1. #1

    October Suprise #1: Unemployment Falls Below 8.0%

    Reported this morning at 7.8%, with ~114,000 jobs added. Lowest % since Obama took office.

    I'll leave the commentary to others, I know what faith (or lack therof) I put into this number already.

  2. #2
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    Such a farce. When you cook the books shouldn't you at least try to make it believable?

  3. #3
    How predictable is this thread?

    Numbers bad? Obama sucks.

    Numbers good? Books are cooked.

    Spin on...

  4. #4
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    Not bad. But isn't there usually a boost in the fall? Restaurants, retailers all gearing up for the holidays. Not sure how many of these jobs are permanent.

    Hopefully the number continues to fall. But this is nothing to go crazy about.

  5. #5
    The books have been cooked a long time before Obama was in office - and they are indeed cooked to a crispy cinder.

  6. #6
    Why the hell would one cook books?

    Are they made of Hemp?

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Soberphobia View Post
    The books have been cooked a long time before Obama was in office - and they are indeed cooked to a crispy cinder.
    Just a quick glance at how inflation is calculated nowadays is enough to turn you off of it. Figures lie and liars figure.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by FF2® View Post
    How predictable is this thread?

    Numbers bad? Obama sucks.

    Numbers good? Books are cooked.

    Spin on...
    It works for both political parties, just like everything else.

  9. #9
    The right wing spin has already entered overdrive on this report, claiming that "if the number of people in the job market on the day Obama took office was the same as today, the Unemployment Rate would be over 10%"

    I.e. Unemployment is going down primarily due to people leaving the Job Market, not because of finding Jobs. This aligns with the previous claims that to simply maintain unemployment, you'd need well over 114,000 jobs created/month to keep pace.

    Like so much of Government, it's all in how you present the numbers. Exactly like the idea that a "cut" is actually not a cut at all, but a reduction in the rate of increase. Hence how spending an additional $100 million per year could be called a "cut", or even a "massive extreme crushing cut that dismantles x, y or z".

    It pays to know how Government operates in this regard, and to dig a little deeper into the numbers than the avaerage media chucklehead, both directions (right or left spin included).

    Regardless of all that, this is massive good news for Obama, as it will be quite the political win for him on the camapign trail.

    For more interesting reading on the Obama 1st Term and the Economy, CNN has a number of tracking charts here: http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2012/...html?hpt=hp_t1

    Worth reading IMO.
    Last edited by Warfish; 10-05-2012 at 11:11 AM.

  10. #10
    The Spin:

    the positive numbers dont count because obama either made them up or had no control of them (narrative depends on which talk show host, Fox News show they followed).

    However

    if the numbers are negative it absolutely shows how bad a president Obama is because his policies obviously failed.


  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Apache 51 View Post
    It works for both political parties, just like everything else.
    Agreed

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Warfish View Post

    Unemployment is going down primarily due to people leaving the Job Market, not because of finding Jobs. This aligns with the previous claims that to simply maintain unemployment, you'd need well over 114,000 jobs created/month to keep pace.

    Regardless of all that, this is massive good news for Obama, as it will be quite the political win for him on the camapign trail.
    Part time people employed soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since Oct 2011.

    I suspect many of those new part time employees had their extended employment benefits end so it's either take a part time job or go hungry.

    This is an employment/economic picture like there is in third world countries in South America and Asia.


  13. #13
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    Not sure why any spin is even required when the jobs added don't keep up with population growth and the number of jobless drops because they've stop looking for work. It's amazing how people don't understand what these numbers mean.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by JetPotato View Post
    Not sure why any spin is even required when the jobs added don't keep up with population growth and the number of jobless drops because they've stop looking for work. It's amazing how people don't understand what these numbers mean.
    Manufacturing jobs down (again) 16,000 in September.

    Welcome to McDonalds, can I take your order?


  15. #15
    I am not a statistician but I find it hard to reconcile how adding ONLY 114,000 jobs can result in a fairly substantial DROP in the unemployment rate.
    This is counter intuitive. Can it be that droves of people are no longer being counted?
    BTW, the corporation ADP, which issues estimates on new jobs being filled on a regular basis, was founded by Senator Frank Lautenberg. He's worth about $50 mill - much of it in ADP stock. Think he has any input on data?

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by JetPotato View Post
    Not sure why any spin is even required when the jobs added don't keep up with population growth and the number of jobless drops because they've stop looking for work. It's amazing how people don't understand what these numbers mean.
    No, don't you know? It is all party politics.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by palmetto defender View Post
    I am not a statistician but I find it hard to reconcile how adding ONLY 114,000 jobs can result in a fairly substantial DROP in the unemployment rate.
    This is counter intuitive.
    A VERY Basic Example:

    Starting Stats:
    100 Total Population of Workers or Those Looking For Work
    92 Starting employed
    8 Starting Unemployed/Looking
    8.00% Starting Unemployment

    Monthly Activity/Change:
    10 Added Jobs
    -10 Lost jobs
    0 Net change in jobs
    6 Added to Workforce (Kids, Immigrants, People Starting to Look, etc)
    -7 Left workforce (Retired, No Longer Looking, Etc, no longer counted as Workers)
    -1 Net Change in Workers

    Ending Stats:
    99 Ending Population of Workers (Starting Add New workers Less Those Who left Workforce)
    92 Ending Employed
    7 Ending Unemployed/Looking
    7.07% Ending Unemployment

    Change in Unemployment Rate = Down 0.83%

    Change in Number Employed = Zero
    Last edited by Warfish; 10-05-2012 at 11:58 AM.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by palmetto defender View Post
    I am not a statistician but I find it hard to reconcile how adding ONLY 114,000 jobs can result in a fairly substantial DROP in the unemployment rate. This is counter intuitive. Can it be that droves of people are no longer being counted?
    Well, according to Mitt Romney -

    “This is not what a real recovery looks like. We created fewer jobs in September than in August, and fewer jobs in August than in July, and we’ve lost over 600,000 manufacturing jobs since President Obama took office. If not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force, the real unemployment rate would be closer to 11%. The results of President Obama's failed policies are staggering – 23 million Americans struggling for work, nearly one in six living in poverty and 47 million people dependent on food stamps to feed themselves and their families. The choice in this election is clear. Under President Obama, we’ll get another four years like the last four years. If I’m elected, we will have a real recovery with pro-growth policies that will create 12 million new jobs and rising incomes for everyone.”


  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Warfish View Post
    A VERY Basic Example:

    Starting Stats:
    100 Total Population of Workers or Those Looking For Work
    92 Starting employed
    8 Starting Unemployed/Looking
    8.00% Starting Unemployment

    Monthly Activity/Change:
    10 Added Jobs
    -10 Lost jobs
    0 Net change in jobs
    6 Added to Workforce (Kids, Immigrants, People Starting to Look, etc)
    -7 Left workforce (Retired, No Longer Looking, Etc, no longer counted as Workers)
    -1 Net Change in Workers

    Ending Stats:
    99 Ending Population of Workers (Starting Add New workers Less Those Who left Workforce)
    92 Ending Employed
    7 Ending Unemployed/Looking
    7.07% Ending Unemployment

    Change in Unemployment Rate = Down 0.83%

    Change in Number Employed = Zero

    Of course your example is correct and probably an accurate portrayal of what occured. that is why I am not a statistician although took a couple of those dreadful courses for my degree.
    Smoke and mirrors baby.

  20. #20
    200,000 jobs per month is baseline maintenance, 114,000 added is soft regardless of spin. The workforce is shrinking because once people's unemployment expires they aren't counted.

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