Jets at 41.7% chance to make playoffs, 14.1% to win AFC East.
the most notable thing to me is the widespread 'parity'/abject mediocrity in the AFC... the Jets are simmed to an average of 8 wins and 8 losses, which is actually second-best among non-division winners in the AFC: Miami 8.7 wins, Jets 8.0, Steelers 7.9, Bengals 7.6, Chargers 7.3.
so a 9-7 wild-card or two is certainly a possibility - as may be an 8-8 wild card, which has not happened (iirc) since the Giants did it in 2006.
I'm looking at the Football Outsiders overall rankings and nothing is more surprising to me than the Jets being 30th in variance (32nd being most variance w/o/w). THere are really two teams that are more inconsistent than the Jets?