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Thread: Post Election Reflections

  1. #1

    Post Election Reflections

    Obviously it was a disappointing night for me. I wrote here yesterday that I believed that it would be close but losing Florida or barely winning it was not something I would have expected to see.

    Where did it go wrong? There are a few things I would point to starting with Sandy. That was truly an October surprise. Obama got this sort of bipartisan bounce as the country came together in a time of crisis. Gallup and Rassmussen had a shift from Romney +4 to a tie. Exit polls showed that 42% of voters said Obama's response to the crisis was very important to their vote, an additional 15% said it was the most important factor.

    That was just one thing. An even larger factor was the Aiken and Murdoch with their comments. It played right in to the hands of Obama's campaign and their war on women narrative. In general the need to pander to evangelicals on social issues is hurting the GOP brand. No one seriously believes that Romney is an anti-abortion warrior or a social values guy but the need to take some of those positions hurts the party with single women in particular. I think moderate candidates going forward should get leeway from the base to position themselves in more of a libertarian stance along the lines of "Personally I am against it for moral reasons but I don't believe that Government should ban it. I am against any government funding specifically for abortions". In general I think the GOP needs to move much closer to libertarian positions across the board. Become the party of smaller government and greater liberties and freedom. Lose some of the social values stuff and appeal to a larger audience. Why should social moderates and fiscal conservatives like me always have to compromise with the party. Let the social values folks compromise instead. They aren't going anywhere regardless.

    Another big one was the stance on immigration that Romney took during the primaries. Clearly the GOP will need to revise their position there because the Latino voting bloc is growing and can't be overlooked.

    Finally, Obama's ground game was as good as advertised. This was the most surprising for me personally. Obama played it like Bush did in 2004. It was a base turnout campaign and they effectively scared their base in to getting to the polls. Women via the war on women narrative, Blacks turned out in large numbers because Romney promised to cut spending on entitlements which they rely on, and Latinos due to the immigration stance. It helped that Obama had the incumbency advantage and had paid staff on the ground in the key swing states since the 2008 election.


    On the plus side: The victory margin for obama was slim. It will end up somewhere in the 2 points range. Republicans held the house and didn't lose ground there. The takeaway was that while the electorate was not ready to fire Obama they also arent ready to embrace a progressive agenda. They left the House in GOP hands and basically said to Obama that its time to actually reach across the aisle and make a deal which can work for both sides.

    To his credit Obama gave a fantastic acceptance speech. I advise people that missed it to check it out on you tube. He acknowledged that he needs to listen to and work with the other side. That he hadn't in the past. We have a debt ceiling about to be reached at the moment, a fiscal cliff via taxes and the sequester deal which needs to be changed in the next few months. Obama is a man that strives for greatness. He wants to be remembered as a great president. Another 4 years of staunch positions and battles with the GOP house wont get him there. He will need to take the lead on budget and spending issues as well as entitlement reform working with the GOP in a bipartisan way or we will end up with 4 more years of gridlock. I'm not sure he has it in him but maybe this close election will be a wake up call. If he was sincere it will be a positive thing though past history says that the message was not sincere. I have an inkling of hope that Bill Clinton has advised him of this reality and that there will be a closer relationship with Bubba and Obama that will lead to the type of bipartisan solutions we saw in Clinton's second term.
    Last edited by chiefst2000; 11-07-2012 at 12:35 PM.

  2. #2
    My own reflection:

    You, and every loyal (R) on this site, was wrong.

    Again.

    /endpointlessdiscussion

    Best of luck with your Pro-Entitlement, Pro-Illegal Immigration Brown-People-Winning Agenda in 2016.

  3. #3
    A black vice presidential candidate would have been huge and fighting against the social issue of gay marriage would have been tremendous.

    But the free gift of health care still would have been tough to overcome.



    Bold for you 21st
    Last edited by cedk; 11-07-2012 at 01:12 PM.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by cedk View Post
    A black vice presidential candidate would have been huge and fighting against the social issue of gay marriage would have been tremendous.

    But the free gift of health care it still would have been tough.
    Putting a black VP on ticket would of done a big load of nothing. You can't put a woman, an African American, or a Hispanic and think that alone will do the trick. Those voting blocks support Democrats because of the issues.

  5. #5
    Sure it would have but i did fix my post in case you missed the major issue I reference.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by 21st Amendment View Post
    Putting a black VP on ticket would of done a big load of nothing. You can't put a woman, an African American, or a Hispanic and think that alone will do the trick. Those voting blocks support Democrats because of the issues.
    You're forgetting waffling independents like me choose the president, not the Left or Right. Palin was an exemption to the rule given her complete incompetence. It definitely would have made a big difference. You're getting quite smarmy with this win ya know.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by 21st Amendment View Post
    Putting a black VP on ticket would of done a big load of nothing. You can't put a woman, an African American, or a Hispanic and think that alone will do the trick. Those voting blocks support Democrats because of the freebies.
    Fixed

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Warfish View Post
    My own reflection:

    You, and every loyal (R) on this site, was wrong.

    Again.

    /endpointlessdiscussion

    Best of luck with your Pro-Entitlement, Pro-Illegal Immigration Brown-People-Winning Agenda in 2016.
    Technically so were you. I think a 30 day self imposed ban from poli-sci was a bet you made... One I don't care to have you follow through on since you're one of my fave posters

  9. #9
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  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Warfish View Post
    My own reflection:

    You, and every loyal (R) on this site, was wrong.

    Again.

    /endpointlessdiscussion

    Best of luck with your Pro-Entitlement, Pro-Illegal Immigration Brown-People-Winning Agenda in 2016.

    Hate to disagree. Of course, you don't keep a tally of all of us. I am a loyal R.
    I felt that this was an Obama win all along. The attitude of the American people has become one of a "give me" lazy society. Certainly enough to change an election. Too much with the anti abortion crowd nonsense also. An economic upheavel is necessary to change the pendulum. 8% unemployment is not enough. 12% might be a tipping point.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by palmetto defender View Post
    Hate to disagree. Of course, you don't keep a tally of all of us. I am a loyal R.
    I felt that this was an Obama win all along. The attitude of the American people has become one of a "give me" lazy society. Certainly enough to change an election. Too much with the anti abortion crowd nonsense also. An economic upheavel is necessary to change the pendulum. 8% unemployment is not enough. 12% might be a tipping point.
    Er, that sounds like 4% of more people voting for democrats given the food stamps they'll be expecting.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by AlwaysGreenAlwaysWhite View Post
    Technically so were you. I think a 30 day self imposed ban from poli-sci was a bet you made... One I don't care to have you follow through on since you're one of my fave posters
    Remind me of the post in question. I cannot seem to locate it, but I'd like to.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by PlumberKhan View Post
    Awesomely appropriate. Thats going on my FB timeline

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by chiefst2000 View Post
    Obviously it was a disappointing night for me. I wrote here yesterday that I believed that it would be close but losing Florida or barely winning it was not something I would have expected to see.

    Where did it go wrong? There are a few things I would point to starting with Sandy. That was truly an October surprise. Obama got this sort of bipartisan bounce as the country came together in a time of crisis. Gallup and Rassmussen had a shift from Romney +4 to a tie. Exit polls showed that 42% of voters said Obama's response to the crisis was very important to their vote, an additional 15% said it was the most important factor.

    That was just one thing. An even larger factor was the Aiken and Murdoch with their comments. It played right in to the hands of Obama's campaign and their war on women narrative. In general the need to pander to evangelicals on social issues is hurting the GOP brand. No one seriously believes that Romney is an anti-abortion warrior or a social values guy but the need to take some of those positions hurts the party with single women in particular. I think moderate candidates going forward should get leeway from the base to position themselves in more of a libertarian stance along the lines of "Personally I am against it for moral reasons but I don't believe that Government should ban it. I am against any government funding specifically for abortions". In general I think the GOP needs to move much closer to libertarian positions across the board. Become the party of smaller government and greater liberties and freedom. Lose some of the social values stuff and appeal to a larger audience. Why should social moderates and fiscal conservatives like me always have to compromise with the party. Let the social values folks compromise instead. They aren't going anywhere regardless.

    Another big one was the stance on immigration that Romney took during the primaries. Clearly the GOP will need to revise their position there because the Latino voting bloc is growing and can't be overlooked.

    Finally, Obama's ground game was as good as advertised. This was the most surprising for me personally. Obama played it like Bush did in 2004. It was a base turnout campaign and they effectively scared their base in to getting to the polls. Women via the war on women narrative, Blacks turned out in large numbers because Romney promised to cut spending on entitlements which they rely on, and Latinos due to the immigration stance. It helped that Obama had the incumbency advantage and had paid staff on the ground in the key swing states since the 2008 election.


    On the plus side: The victory margin for obama was slim. It will end up somewhere in the 2 points range. Republicans held the house and didn't lose ground there. The takeaway was that while the electorate was not ready to fire Obama they also arent ready to embrace a progressive agenda. They left the House in GOP hands and basically said to Obama that its time to actually reach across the aisle and make a deal which can work for both sides.

    To his credit Obama gave a fantastic acceptance speech. I advise people that missed it to check it out on you tube. He acknowledged that he needs to listen to and work with the other side. That he hadn't in the past. We have a debt ceiling about to be reached at the moment, a fiscal cliff via taxes and the sequester deal which needs to be changed in the next few months. Obama is a man that strives for greatness. He wants to be remembered as a great president. Another 4 years of staunch positions and battles with the GOP house wont get him there. He will need to take the lead on budget and spending issues as well as entitlement reform working with the GOP in a bipartisan way or we will end up with 4 more years of gridlock. I'm not sure he has it in him but maybe this close election will be a wake up call. If he was sincere it will be a positive thing though past history says that the message was not sincere. I have an inkling of hope that Bill Clinton has advised him of this reality and that there will be a closer relationship with Bubba and Obama that will lead to the type of bipartisan solutions we saw in Clinton's second term.
    Even after this disaster you still believe this? Incredible

  15. #15
    Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin's reflection on the campaign is fascinating.

    http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/11...er-read/191214

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by chiefst2000 View Post
    Awesomely appropriate. Thats going on my FB timeline
    Here's another:


  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jetdawgg View Post
    Even after this disaster you still believe this? Incredible
    It's hilarious watching so many Republicans explain the results of the election as a product of lazy, do-nothing leeches. Talk about irony.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by PlumberKhan View Post
    Here's another:

    LOL. You have to give him credit though, he could have already been doing that his whole life.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by parafly View Post
    It's hilarious watching so many Republicans explain the results of the election as a product of lazy, do-nothing leeches. Talk about irony.
    It is stereotyping like this that makes some people think that republicans are dumb

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by chiefst2000 View Post
    Obviously it was a disappointing night for me. I wrote here yesterday that I believed that it would be close but losing Florida or barely winning it was not something I would have expected to see.

    Where did it go wrong?
    Stop right here. Your party nominated a guy NOBODY liked. And I mean nobody.

    That's it. No need to talk about hispanics or the auto industry. Polls showed nobody was excited about Wiilard for months or years - he was disliked. Ryan turned out to be a dud, but he was an unknown so you can't blame the Repubs for that. But Romney, even his own party didn't like him. He was unelectable. Period.

    Very few, if any people in here (except Sackdance) liked him for reasons other than anti-obama sentiment.

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