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Thread: Is it all that suprising?

  1. #1

    Is it all that suprising?

    For all the teeth gnashing going on, is it really surprising that the Jets are 3-6 right now? They were a mediocre (8-8) team last year, with offensive and defensive issues (talent & coaching). Such a team should beat weaker teams and lose to better ones. Through nine games they’ve only played 3 games against teams who currently have sub-.500 records, won 2 of those 3 and beat a team with a winning record to get to three wins. They are where they should be. Through Week 10 the average winning percentage for the Jets opponents is .605; that's a pretty good “average” opponent; the Jets are not a .600 caliber club themselves. Luckily for the Jets the “average” opponent the rest of the way has a .397 winning percentage. I expect the Jets will get a fair number of wins, which will only mask the fact that the Jets are still a mediocre team.

    We’ve all been disgusted with how the Jets have lost; defense has been up and down, specials have been surprisingly poor and the offense is a dud. The lack of offense has been particularly acute when the opposing defense is a strong one. And they’ve faced a lot of strong defenses in the first nine games. Of the first nine opponents (counting Mia twice), six of the nine are in the top ten in either total or scoring defense. For a weak offense, they should lose to those teams, probably badly. Using those defensive standings a predictor, the Jets should be 3-6 right now. It tracks pretty well, the exception being that they beat Mia (8th in Scoring D) once and lost to NE (25th total D, 16th Scoring). Against weaker defenses (Buf, Indy, NE) the Jets’ offense looked pretty respectable.

    Looking forward, the only top ten defenses left for the Jets are AZ (9th T, 5th S), SD (7th T, 11th S). Assuming they’ll lose those games, and to NE (too good on offense), they could finish 4-3 and look OK doing it. 7-9 in a year after they finished 8-8 and quickly lost Revis and Holmes is pretty predictable.

    And as to the QB controversy, suffice to say they whoever QBs the Jets the rest of the season will look a lot better than thus far this seaons against mostly good teams. Hard to make any judgment calls based upon that. Sanchez could look better and some will wonder whether he is improving or just facing weaker Ds; Tebow or McElroy, if successful against weaker defenses, wouldn’t tell us much; we’d need to see how they handle a string of tough D’s to compare to Sanchez. I think either way we all feel that a QB that can carry the team over a strong defense does not exist on the Jets today, and may not any time soon. Those QBs aren’t easy to come by.

    Best bet WRT to QBs is Sanchez (barring injury) plays out the string; Tebow leaves after this year and a mid-career vet QB comes in as back-up (this may be an attractive slot for backup who sees the chance to supplant Sanchez next year, when Sanchez could be in a lame duck status—Stanton thought he had this in 2012 before Tebow showed up).

    And a “strong” (4-3 or 5-2) finish probably wouldn’t mandate major changes to upper management, which would be needed for the Jets to truly contend next year. I’d prefer to see the Jets abandon the ground and pound theme (it takes more good players than a decent passing offense) and bring in an OC who is known for developing QBs and passing offenses (Schotty was bad, Sparano no better that I can see). That plus a strong defense can win in the NFL (balanced offense is nicer but…). And I’d really like the Jets to become a more disciplined and focused team, but that requires such emphasis from the coaching staff, not something we’ve ever seen under Rex.

    But for this year, for a team that belongs in the 7-9 to 9-7 range, they pretty much should be 3-6 after the schedule played so far. I wonder what other teams have played against cumulative .600 level opponents and what is their record?

  2. #2
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    Maybe sparano is still hiding the plays like he was in the preseason. He will bring them out now that the stretch run is upon us.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by jk816 View Post
    For all the teeth gnashing going on, is it really surprising that the Jets are 3-6 right now? They were a mediocre (8-8) team last year, with offensive and defensive issues (talent & coaching). Such a team should beat weaker teams and lose to better ones. Through nine games they’ve only played 3 games against teams who currently have sub-.500 records, won 2 of those 3 and beat a team with a winning record to get to three wins. They are where they should be. Through Week 10 the average winning percentage for the Jets opponents is .605; that's a pretty good “average” opponent; the Jets are not a .600 caliber club themselves. Luckily for the Jets the “average” opponent the rest of the way has a .397 winning percentage. I expect the Jets will get a fair number of wins, which will only mask the fact that the Jets are still a mediocre team.

    We’ve all been disgusted with how the Jets have lost; defense has been up and down, specials have been surprisingly poor and the offense is a dud. The lack of offense has been particularly acute when the opposing defense is a strong one. And they’ve faced a lot of strong defenses in the first nine games. Of the first nine opponents (counting Mia twice), six of the nine are in the top ten in either total or scoring defense. For a weak offense, they should lose to those teams, probably badly. Using those defensive standings a predictor, the Jets should be 3-6 right now. It tracks pretty well, the exception being that they beat Mia (8th in Scoring D) once and lost to NE (25th total D, 16th Scoring). Against weaker defenses (Buf, Indy, NE) the Jets’ offense looked pretty respectable.

    Looking forward, the only top ten defenses left for the Jets are AZ (9th T, 5th S), SD (7th T, 11th S). Assuming they’ll lose those games, and to NE (too good on offense), they could finish 4-3 and look OK doing it. 7-9 in a year after they finished 8-8 and quickly lost Revis and Holmes is pretty predictable.

    And as to the QB controversy, suffice to say they whoever QBs the Jets the rest of the season will look a lot better than thus far this seaons against mostly good teams. Hard to make any judgment calls based upon that. Sanchez could look better and some will wonder whether he is improving or just facing weaker Ds; Tebow or McElroy, if successful against weaker defenses, wouldn’t tell us much; we’d need to see how they handle a string of tough D’s to compare to Sanchez. I think either way we all feel that a QB that can carry the team over a strong defense does not exist on the Jets today, and may not any time soon. Those QBs aren’t easy to come by.

    Best bet WRT to QBs is Sanchez (barring injury) plays out the string; Tebow leaves after this year and a mid-career vet QB comes in as back-up (this may be an attractive slot for backup who sees the chance to supplant Sanchez next year, when Sanchez could be in a lame duck status—Stanton thought he had this in 2012 before Tebow showed up).

    And a “strong” (4-3 or 5-2) finish probably wouldn’t mandate major changes to upper management, which would be needed for the Jets to truly contend next year. I’d prefer to see the Jets abandon the ground and pound theme (it takes more good players than a decent passing offense) and bring in an OC who is known for developing QBs and passing offenses (Schotty was bad, Sparano no better that I can see). That plus a strong defense can win in the NFL (balanced offense is nicer but…). And I’d really like the Jets to become a more disciplined and focused team, but that requires such emphasis from the coaching staff, not something we’ve ever seen under Rex.

    But for this year, for a team that belongs in the 7-9 to 9-7 range, they pretty much should be 3-6 after the schedule played so far. I wonder what other teams have played against cumulative .600 level opponents and what is their record?
    Nice thesis, & it is true that the Jets have played the toughest schedule in the NFL up till now, no doubt.
    But, lets not exonerate Sanchez & the coaching here in games vs "Above average" teams.
    Jets had many chances vs Texans but Sanchez doesn't make ANY PLAYS that matter anymore!
    Jets vs Pats- I live in New England & the most annoying thing about that loss was to a man, every Pats fan I know that I ran into that week was like, "we should have lost that game". Again, bad coaching! 3rd & 1 in the 4th quarter & you have Tebow sitting on his azz on the bench? Ridiculous.
    Vs Seahawks...Again Sanchez chits the bed in scoring position by throwing another BACK BREAKING pick! It's not like these games weren't WINNABLE.
    With sound coaching & AVERAGE QB play, the Jets should be 5-4 right now. Sure, they are mediocre but this staff...Rex, Sparano & Westy all share in this debocle which frankly shocks me, I expected a helluva lot more from these seasoned coaches.
    Last edited by jetster; 11-13-2012 at 10:05 AM.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by jetster View Post
    Nice thesis, & it is true that the Jets have played the toughest schedule in the NFL up till now, no doubt.
    But, lets not exonerate Sanchez & the coaching here in games vs "Above average" teams.
    Jets had many chances vs Texans but Sanchez doesn't make ANY PLAYS that matter anymore!
    Jets vs Pats- I live in New England & the most annoying thing about that loss was to a man, every Pats fan I know that I ran into that week was like, "we should have lost that game". Again, bad coaching! 3rd & 1 in the 4th quarter & you have Tebow sitting on his azz on the bench? Ridiculous.
    Vs Seahawks...Again Sanchez chits the bed in scoring position by throwing another BACK BREAKING pick! It's not like these games weren't WINNABLE.
    With sound coaching & AVERAGE QB play, the Jets should be 5-4 right now. Sure, they are mediocre but this staff...Rex, Sparano & Westy all share in this debocle which frankly shocks me, I expected a helluva lot more from these seasoned coaches.
    I personally would not exonerate anyone associated with the Jets; a few players are playing at or above their norms, but no one is really impressive (Cromartie, maybe?). A good coaching staff can lead a poor or mediocre team to overachieve through discipline, scheming (matchups) and a bit of inspiration. The Jets haven’t managed that. A good QB can lift the offense and maybe rally a whole team; the Jets haven’t managed that. At the same point they haven’t really underachieved that much either. Last year they had inconsistent QB play, little running game, no pass rush buoyed by decent DB play. Pretty much what we have this year, against a much tougher lot of defenses over the first 9 games. They are where they should be at this point based upon the coaching, player composition and schedule.

    At the end of the year, after the schedule evens out a bit, we’ll see where the Jets truly are, but my guess is still mediocrity. And after two years of mediocrity (which followed two years where they arguably did overachieve) the declining trend should spark change; whether it will occur is anyone’s guess.

    If it did, I’d hope Tannenbaum would be “promoted” out of the GM job (kept in the business end); a GM known for talent evaluation brought in to make all other decisions. This could very well include a new HC (I tend to think we’ve seen Rex’s ceiling as an HC; if he grows as an HC it is likely in his next stint elsewhere) and staff; together the GM and new coaches can evaluate, with no personal loyalties, what is worth keeping, what can be fixed and what to dump (Cap influenced as always…).

    But a stronger finish by the Jets, which is possible, would blunt the move for a major change in all likelihood. So the trend may continue.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe W. Namath View Post
    Maybe sparano is still hiding the plays like he was in the preseason. He will bring them out now that the stretch run is upon us.
    LOL.

    Remember the "vanilla" excuse everyone was clinging onto.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by jk816 View Post
    For all the teeth gnashing going on, is it really surprising that the Jets are 3-6 right now? They were a mediocre (8-8) team last year, with offensive and defensive issues (talent & coaching). Such a team should beat weaker teams and lose to better ones. Through nine games they’ve only played 3 games against teams who currently have sub-.500 records, won 2 of those 3 and beat a team with a winning record to get to three wins. They are where they should be. Through Week 10 the average winning percentage for the Jets opponents is .605; that's a pretty good “average” opponent; the Jets are not a .600 caliber club themselves. Luckily for the Jets the “average” opponent the rest of the way has a .397 winning percentage. I expect the Jets will get a fair number of wins, which will only mask the fact that the Jets are still a mediocre team.

    We’ve all been disgusted with how the Jets have lost; defense has been up and down, specials have been surprisingly poor and the offense is a dud. The lack of offense has been particularly acute when the opposing defense is a strong one. And they’ve faced a lot of strong defenses in the first nine games. Of the first nine opponents (counting Mia twice), six of the nine are in the top ten in either total or scoring defense. For a weak offense, they should lose to those teams, probably badly. Using those defensive standings a predictor, the Jets should be 3-6 right now. It tracks pretty well, the exception being that they beat Mia (8th in Scoring D) once and lost to NE (25th total D, 16th Scoring). Against weaker defenses (Buf, Indy, NE) the Jets’ offense looked pretty respectable.

    Looking forward, the only top ten defenses left for the Jets are AZ (9th T, 5th S), SD (7th T, 11th S). Assuming they’ll lose those games, and to NE (too good on offense), they could finish 4-3 and look OK doing it. 7-9 in a year after they finished 8-8 and quickly lost Revis and Holmes is pretty predictable.

    And as to the QB controversy, suffice to say they whoever QBs the Jets the rest of the season will look a lot better than thus far this seaons against mostly good teams. Hard to make any judgment calls based upon that. Sanchez could look better and some will wonder whether he is improving or just facing weaker Ds; Tebow or McElroy, if successful against weaker defenses, wouldn’t tell us much; we’d need to see how they handle a string of tough D’s to compare to Sanchez. I think either way we all feel that a QB that can carry the team over a strong defense does not exist on the Jets today, and may not any time soon. Those QBs aren’t easy to come by.

    Best bet WRT to QBs is Sanchez (barring injury) plays out the string; Tebow leaves after this year and a mid-career vet QB comes in as back-up (this may be an attractive slot for backup who sees the chance to supplant Sanchez next year, when Sanchez could be in a lame duck status—Stanton thought he had this in 2012 before Tebow showed up).

    And a “strong” (4-3 or 5-2) finish probably wouldn’t mandate major changes to upper management, which would be needed for the Jets to truly contend next year. I’d prefer to see the Jets abandon the ground and pound theme (it takes more good players than a decent passing offense) and bring in an OC who is known for developing QBs and passing offenses (Schotty was bad, Sparano no better that I can see). That plus a strong defense can win in the NFL (balanced offense is nicer but…). And I’d really like the Jets to become a more disciplined and focused team, but that requires such emphasis from the coaching staff, not something we’ve ever seen under Rex.

    But for this year, for a team that belongs in the 7-9 to 9-7 range, they pretty much should be 3-6 after the schedule played so far. I wonder what other teams have played against cumulative .600 level opponents and what is their record?
    uhm no

  7. #7
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    This is an OUTSTANDING thread and the OP is just the kind of thing I miss, wonderful stuff and I agree with him on both his initial post and his subsequent defense of it...

    Nice Job!!!

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