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Thread: playoff machine

  1. #21

    Red face

    Quote Originally Posted by SONNY WERBLIN View Post
    http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

    Nice tool to try and figure stuff out.

    If found it interesting that if the Colts lose out, and Cincy beats Pitt then loses to Balt, ..... the Jets are the 5th seed and the Colts the 6th seed.

    Then I changed the Colts loss to KC to a win, and the Jets AND Colts still made the playoffs with their seeds reversed. Go figure.

    Then I noticed that even if the Steelers beat the Bengals, the Jets still make it if the Colts lose to KC and the Bengals lose to Balt.

    My brain hurts.
    "a Colts loss to KC" ????

    Sonny, I know you are many years dead, but dont they have satellite TV up
    in heaven? Have you watched a KC game recently?
    The Colts have as much of a chance to lose to KC, as you do to come back and own the Jets again...

  2. #22
    yeah the Colts losing to KC is a longshot.

    BTW, we should all be Giants fans next week vs. Baltimore, otherwise if the Ravens win they will probably be locked into the #4 seed and will have nothing to play for vs. Cincy in week 17. They'd probably rest their starters in that case and lay down for Cincy.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Baddniss View Post
    "a Colts loss to KC" ????

    Sonny, I know you are many years dead, but dont they have satellite TV up
    in heaven? Have you watched a KC game recently?
    The Colts have as much of a chance to lose to KC, as you do to come back and own the Jets again...
    The colts are not a powerhouse by any means. Especially on the road.

    To call them a lock to beat anyone just isn't realistic. KC can certainly win that game. Sure the Colts will be favorites but to call it an immortal lock, which you seem to be doing is simply wrong.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Baddniss View Post
    "a Colts loss to KC" ????

    Sonny, I know you are many years dead, but dont they have satellite TV up
    in heaven? Have you watched a KC game recently?
    The Colts have as much of a chance to lose to KC, as the Cardinals have to beat the Lions...
    fixed

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vin View Post
    You know I love ya, IndianaJet.



    Just messin' with ya!
    You're the only Vin.....the only one..... :-(

  6. #26
    Just went through this and this is what I have so far...

    Scenario 1 - 5th/6th seed, depending on IND
    Jets: 3-0
    Pittsburgh: 1-1 or worse
    Cincinnati: 1-1 or worse

    Scenario 2 - 5th/6th seed, depending on PIT/CIN
    Jets: 3-0
    Indianapolis: 0-2

    Those first two just get us in. These are more for position ..


    Scenario 3: - 5th seed
    Jets: 3-0
    Pittsburgh: 1-1
    Cincinnati: 1-1
    Indianapolis: 0-2
    Baltimore: 1-1

    Scenario 4: - 6th seed
    Jets: 3-0
    Pittsburgh: 2-0
    Cincinnati: 1-1
    Indianapolis: 0-2
    Baltimore: 0-2
    Last edited by 124; 12-17-2012 at 08:40 AM.

  7. #27
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    The Ravens have had 3 weeks now to clinch a playoff spot and haven't. Can you imagine the media attention if that was the Jets? Geez.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by chesapeakejet View Post
    The Ravens have had 3 weeks now to clinch a playoff spot and haven't. Can you imagine the media attention if that was the Jets? Geez.
    They actually clinched yesterday in true Jets fashion with Pittsburgh's loss to Dallas.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by SONNY WERBLIN View Post
    fixed
    The Lions were 4-9 on their way to 4-12 heading into that game. They actually had the same record as Arizona. You're comparing that to the 9-5 Colts playing a 2-12 team? I don't see it myself...

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by fidelioion View Post
    The colts are not a powerhouse by any means. Especially on the road.

    To call them a lock to beat anyone just isn't realistic. KC can certainly win that game. Sure the Colts will be favorites but to call it an immortal lock, which you seem to be doing is simply wrong.
    At this point if the Chiefs were playing the bye they'd lose by 14. They were outscored 45-7 the last 2 weeks by the Browns and Raiders. Read that sentence again. Jets need to hope for the Steelers/Bengals scenarios to play out, although both of those seem improbable as well. If the Steelers beat Cincy at home, why would anyone believe they'd lose to the Browns at home the following week? Vice versa for Cincy. If they can go into Pitt and win, why would they then drop a home game to the fading Ravens? If Jets win out, I'd say about 25% chance of a playoff spot. No better.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by 124 View Post
    They actually clinched yesterday in true Jets fashion with Pittsburgh's loss to Dallas.
    lol, I forgot about that scenario.


  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by 124 View Post
    They actually clinched yesterday in true Jets fashion with Pittsburgh's loss to Dallas.
    Yeah, that was pretty funny. Get blown out at home yet clinch a playoff spot. Proof that a playoff spot does not heal everything. Ravens fans probably hate the team and Flacco said they're 9-5 but feel like they're 0-14. Which is why some of the excitement over our potential playoff berth still puzzles me a bit. At least the Broncos aren't sitting in the 3 seed anymore if you want a slight positive...

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by 124 View Post
    They actually clinched yesterday in true Jets fashion with Pittsburgh's loss to Dallas.
    Are you saying the Ravens backed into the playoffs?

  14. #34
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    Clearest path for Jets is Bengals beating Steelers and the following week the Ravens beating the Bengals. That final game will mean something for Ravens if they lose this weekend against the Giants because the Ravens will lose the division if they're defeated by the Bengals.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by SMC View Post
    Clearest path for Jets is Bengals beating Steelers and the following week the Ravens beating the Bengals. That final game will mean something for Ravens if they lose this weekend against the Giants because the Ravens will lose the division if they're defeated by the Bengals.
    Probably true. No way the Steelers drop a home game to the Browns with playoffs on the line if they beat Bengals. Although the idea of the Ravens losing 4 in a row, having clinched a spot, and then walking into Cincy against a surging Bengals team and winning seems improbable as well. Although more likely than the other 2 scenarios. If Ravens beat the G-men, you can book it, they will lay down for Cincy.

  16. #36
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    I'm not losing hope on KC beating Indy.

    KC will need a big game from Charles and as we certainly know, it doesn't take much more than Shonn Greene to run on the Colts.

    Also, Luck has been playing like crap recently. Outdoors, in the cold, hopefully a little wind and rain, he may have problems.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by IndianaJet View Post
    I'm not losing hope on KC beating Indy.

    KC will need a big game from Charles and as we certainly know, it doesn't take much more than Shonn Greene to run on the Colts.

    Also, Luck has been playing like crap recently. Outdoors, in the cold, hopefully a little wind and rain, he may have problems.
    Agreed. Luck has had some great comeback wins and he will eventrually be a stud QB, but he has been a below average QB all year. His QB rating is one of the worst in the league. His TD/INT ratio is horrible and the colts defense is terrible. All of that explains why the Colts are just 6 point faves over the patehtic Chiefs this comming week.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by SlickBri481 View Post
    The Lions were 4-9 on their way to 4-12 heading into that game. They actually had the same record as Arizona. You're comparing that to the 9-5 Colts playing a 2-12 team? I don't see it myself...
    Since betting lines reflect the public's overall view (because they attempt to get the money split 50/50 on each side of the bet), perhaps the spreads can provide some insight?

    Opening line for Indy @ KC 5.5

    Closing line for Detroit @ Arizona 5.5

    I guess others see it, even if you don't ...

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by SONNY WERBLIN View Post
    Since betting lines reflect the public's overall view (because they attempt to get the money split 50/50 on each side of the bet), perhaps the spreads can provide some insight?

    Opening line for Indy @ KC 5.5

    Closing line for Detroit @ Arizona 5.5

    I guess others see it, even if you don't ...
    Well said.

    Road games are tough no matter who you are playing...they are a 5.5 point fav (around 2-1 on the ML), so to say there is no chance is silly.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by SONNY WERBLIN View Post
    Since betting lines reflect the public's overall view (because they attempt to get the money split 50/50 on each side of the bet), perhaps the spreads can provide some insight?

    Opening line for Indy @ KC 5.5

    Closing line for Detroit @ Arizona 5.5

    I guess others see it, even if you don't ...
    Not impossible, but our board is selling the Colts very short right now, mostly based on our head to head matchup with them. They didn't embarrass themselves yesterday, not even close, and that was with Luck struggling. Based on talk around here, you'd think the Colts lost 42-3 while the Chiefs put up 50 on the Raiders.

    Colts finish 11-5, I'll be surprised if they don't. Texans won't need that last game, even if they did, not sure they go into Indy and win...

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