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Thread: The way to turn around a losing team is to hit on draft picks

  1. #1
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    The way to turn around a losing team is to hit on draft picks

    I know it does seem like an obvious saying but in the end we can't afford to again have drafts without even getting one or two starters out of it. Now I think our draft class last year was a great step in the right direction as we got a bunch of young players who should be ready next year for starting spots or bigger roles: Quinton Coples (DE), Stephen Hill (WR), Demario Davis (ILB) and Antonio Allen (LB/S hybrid on passing downs). This year with higher picks in every round we should look to continue that trend and finally find some impact players. Look at the teams who had losing years last season and now are or were in the playoffs this year and how their rookies are playing a huge part in their success:

    Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton (861 rec yards), Dwyane Allen (521 rec yards), Vick Ballard (814 rush yards), Coby Fleener (281 rec yards)
    Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson, Robert Turbin (354 yards), Bobby Wagner (140 tackles), Bruce Irvin (8.0 sacks)
    Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Alfred Morris (1613 rush yards), Logan Paulson (308 rec yards), Aldrick Robinson (237 rec yards)
    Minnesota Vikings: Ryan Kalil (starting LT), Jarius Wright (310 rec yards in 7 games), Blair Walsh (35 of 38 FGs), Harrison Smith (103 tackles, 3 INTs), Josh Robinson (55 tackles, 2 INTs)

    Again, Coples was very good but only in limited duty. Other than Hill all the others mainly saw special teams duty. Of course, in three of four cases it included a star quarterback coming out but in the end, the Jets have the picks and have to find one. They have to find ways to get guys who can make an impact.

  2. #2
    Indy, Sea and Min all had 10 picks last year, Wash had 9.

    The Jets had 8 after doing their normal trade up thing.

    The one thing that having a lot of picks does is that insulates you from busts or non contributors because even if your 3rd rounder blows often a later rounder will surprise and contribute. Tanny and the Jets thinking they were very close mortgaged the future in a lot of drafts which may not be a bad thing if you are close.

    Now the Jets have multiple holes and their poor depth and development has really killed them, not to mention the high cap costs of high profile guys vs depth guys. I like for teams to trade up on occasion but not as a rule if they have multiple holes.

    This year we should be doing whatever we can to accumulate more picks.

  3. #3
    Solid post.

    There's still a lot of uncertainty with this most recent draft, however.

    Hill missed five games and wasn't able to haul in a deep catch after Week 1 (not the only culprit for this). I love the kid's potential and was resigned to the fact that he'd only catch about 2 balls per game this year, but he's still a bit of an unknown. He's a great kid and seems to have a strong work ethic, so the key will be to see how much he develops in Year 2 and 3...obviously having a competent QB will help speed that development as well.

    I really wish Davis played more this year. As much of an unknown as Hill is, Davis might be even more so. We'll learn more in OTAs and Training Camp, but I'm not certain we can automatically pencil him in as the starting ILB alongside Harris next year. It would be a poor sign for his outlook if he doesn't start.

    My hope for Allen is that he can fill the Eric Smith role. For a 7th rounder, I was pleased with the amount of playing time he got. We seemed to blitz him a fair amount this year and he looked solid in doing so. I would love to see Josh Bush improve to the point where he earns PT, but he was pretty much limited to STs this year.

    I think the 2011 and 2012 drafts have somewhat righted the ship from the 2008-2010 crappy drafts. That being said, this team still has some glaring holes and has a ways to go unless the QB position is dramatically improved.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    Indy, Sea and Min all had 10 picks last year, Wash had 9.

    The Jets had 8 after doing their normal trade up thing.

    The one thing that having a lot of picks does is that insulates you from busts or non contributors because even if your 3rd rounder blows often a later rounder will surprise and contribute. Tanny and the Jets thinking they were very close mortgaged the future in a lot of drafts which may not be a bad thing if you are close.

    Now the Jets have multiple holes and their poor depth and development has really killed them, not to mention the high cap costs of high profile guys vs depth guys. I like for teams to trade up on occasion but not as a rule if they have multiple holes.

    This year we should be doing whatever we can to accumulate more picks.
    The 2014 draft will be a big one for us -- I can't see the new GM bringing back many (possibly none) of our significant UFA's this offseason; this will lead us to a handful of comp. picks for 2014. We can have as many as 10-11 draft picks in 2014 given the right offseason strategy this year, and that number could always go up with draft-day trades this year.

  5. #5
    and the best way to beat teams is to outscore them.

  6. #6
    if the Jets trade away any picks to move up in this draft, especially considering there is nobody who jumps out like last draft, they hired the wrong GM.

    Some ways to turn it around:
    -Cut high-priced, inneffective players.
    -Keep/get as many draft picks as possible. This team really needs to build depth.
    -Do not take so many risks on "projects" like Hill, Vlad, etc., so high in the draft thinking you can coach everyone up. If you are a team stacked in that position or are a perennial playoff team, then maybe you can.
    -Take players who can play. Like Kerley -- not a blazer or workout warrior, but in college he ran crisp routes, had great hands and put up big numbers as a top target with a QB who went in the 2nd round. If the guy is a "player" a la Russell Wilson, you take him.
    -And don't whiff on supposed franchise QBs in the top 5.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    and the best way to beat teams is to outscore them.
    FUUUUU, you mean we've been doing it wrong?

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Flaming Mo View Post
    I know it does seem like an obvious saying but in the end we can't afford to again have drafts without even getting one or two starters out of it. Now I think our draft class last year was a great step in the right direction as we got a bunch of young players who should be ready next year for starting spots or bigger roles: Quinton Coples (DE), Stephen Hill (WR), Demario Davis (ILB) and Antonio Allen (LB/S hybrid on passing downs). This year with higher picks in every round we should look to continue that trend and finally find some impact players. Look at the teams who had losing years last season and now are or were in the playoffs this year and how their rookies are playing a huge part in their success:

    Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton (861 rec yards), Dwyane Allen (521 rec yards), Vick Ballard (814 rush yards), Coby Fleener (281 rec yards)
    Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson, Robert Turbin (354 yards), Bobby Wagner (140 tackles), Bruce Irvin (8.0 sacks)
    Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Alfred Morris (1613 rush yards), Logan Paulson (308 rec yards), Aldrick Robinson (237 rec yards)
    Minnesota Vikings: Ryan Kalil (starting LT), Jarius Wright (310 rec yards in 7 games), Blair Walsh (35 of 38 FGs), Harrison Smith (103 tackles, 3 INTs), Josh Robinson (55 tackles, 2 INTs)

    Again, Coples was very good but only in limited duty. Other than Hill all the others mainly saw special teams duty. Of course, in three of four cases it included a star quarterback coming out but in the end, the Jets have the picks and have to find one. They have to find ways to get guys who can make an impact.

    Washington, Indy and Seattle just proved that the best way to turn around a losing team is to get a good QB

    After that, many other things start to fall in place, like the development of a running game, and rookie/young receivers suddenly start looking all pro.

  9. #9
    Drafting Talent, Player Development, Coach-Up ... etc... can't be stressed enough.......

    Fixing the Jets... not easy task.... but it has to start with the Draft.... Having the correct draft strategy and vision is a key to the long term success of a franchise...... Every pick in Draft represents value.... round 1 through round 7.....

    Regarding current roster.. Can't keep everyone! Out with old , in with the new!

    Cut: Pace, Scott and E.Smith

    Keep focus: locking up Revis, try and keep Landry...

    Let your Veterans walk........ resign cap friendly stop gap F/A....

    ie.. A guy like Braylon Edwards won't command much interest around the league... but.... he can play hard for Rex and has all physical skills.. if at the right price.. u can live with him...


    play the youth.. make your draft pics count.... no such thing anymore as development pics.. college players are ready to play day 1 in NFL..... find them......... rounds 1 thru 7

  10. #10
    you act like we are a 1-15 club and have not drafted a starter in a decade.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demosthenes9 View Post
    Washington, Indy and Seattle just proved that the best way to turn around a losing team is to get a good QB

    After that, many other things start to fall in place, like the development of a running game, and rookie/young receivers suddenly start looking all pro.
    The Jets problems aren't siginificant enough that they can't be solved in one year if they had a QB fall from the sky into their laps. Everything else is a lot easier to get past once you have your QB.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chupa View Post
    you act like we are a 1-15 club and have not drafted a starter in a decade.
    I was just noting that we wasted way too many draft picks in recent years who haven't turned out. You get a few late rounders but overall it is apparent that for a talent challenged team, the Jets young players rarely see the field.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by crasherino View Post
    The Jets problems aren't siginificant enough that they can't be solved in one year if they had a QB fall from the sky into their laps. Everything else is a lot easier to get past once you have your QB.
    really depends on how far you are trying to go immediately. If you want to with the SB, it'll take more than getting a great QB. This is where the Colts and the Redskins are. They have what appear to be great QBs now, guys that make everyone around them look better. If they gather a few more pieces, both teams could be incredible and in serious contention for a SB.

    Denver went to even greater lengths this passed offseason. Many people think they just added Peyton Manning, and BAM, instant Super Bowl run. What they don't realize are all the other changes and additions that the Broncos have made. Looking at their defense, IIRC, 9 of the starters this year WEREN'T the starters last year. They brought in a number of guys to provide veteran depth. They have a new DC in Jack Del Rio and they switched schemes for a better fit of their personnel.

    On offense, along with Manning, they added Stokely giving them a veteran presence for the WR corps, and they also brought in Jacob Tamme who has been indispensable.

    In short, they added one of the best QBs in the NFL AND key components that have made them a "complete" team and a SB contender.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    Indy, Sea and Min all had 10 picks last year, Wash had 9.

    The Jets had 8 after doing their normal trade up thing.

    The one thing that having a lot of picks does is that insulates you from busts or non contributors because even if your 3rd rounder blows often a later rounder will surprise and contribute. Tanny and the Jets thinking they were very close mortgaged the future in a lot of drafts which may not be a bad thing if you are close.

    Now the Jets have multiple holes and their poor depth and development has really killed them, not to mention the high cap costs of high profile guys vs depth guys. I like for teams to trade up on occasion but not as a rule if they have multiple holes.



    This year we should be doing whatever we can to accumulate more picks.
    Using the 2012 draft value chart. If Jets got a call to trade down to the 20th spot. A trade down like that could result in this...

    #9 draft pick value = 1350.

    Swap #9 for #20 and also get the following...

    #20 = 850
    2nd rd = 380
    4th rd = 62
    5th rd = 32
    6th rd = 19
    7th rd = 7

    Value of picks received = 1350

    The above trade is not likely to happen...at least not all in picks received. Jets could get a couple of these picks, and a good player or two, plus the 20th spot.

    My point is...this is one way of stock piling lots young talent on the team in 2013. FA signings is not going to be much of an option. Unless Jets get rid of several player's contracts in trades and/or cuts...that goes beyond the already announced Scott, Pace, Smith, etc., cuts.

    This is what I would like to see the Jets do...

    If possible...get 10+ picks in 2013. Several of these drafted players can be ready to make significant contributions in 2014. That's also when the CAP will allow the Jets to be aggressive in FA for high ticket veterans. That can be used to supplement the 2013 acquisitions. Along with the 2014 drafted players.

    Here's the 2012 draft value chart that I used as a trade down example...


  15. #15
    It doesn't really matter how many great draft picks you hit on if you have a crappy QB.

    Kansas City is a pretty good case in point. Their entire defense (with exception of Dontari Poe) is a bunch of young studs they drafted, they have an amazing RB, and they still suck because Cassell and Brady Quinn are their QBs.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    Indy, Sea and Min all had 10 picks last year, Wash had 9.

    The Jets had 8 after doing their normal trade up thing.

    The one thing that having a lot of picks does is that insulates you from busts or non contributors because even if your 3rd rounder blows often a later rounder will surprise and contribute. Tanny and the Jets thinking they were very close mortgaged the future in a lot of drafts which may not be a bad thing if you are close.

    Now the Jets have multiple holes and their poor depth and development has really killed them, not to mention the high cap costs of high profile guys vs depth guys. I like for teams to trade up on occasion but not as a rule if they have multiple holes.

    This year we should be doing whatever we can to accumulate more picks.
    They took a shot and it didn't work out; now I agree with you on loading up with draftees.

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