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Thread: The Draft and Personnel

  1. #1

    The Draft and Personnel

    While the media people who cover this team have no clue and also apparently a vendetta of sorts to make the Jets look like idiots, I wanted to mention this whole Capologist thing.

    Who is the best Drafter/Personnel man in the NFL today?

    Jerry Reese, who basically lucked into JPP and has had some questionable picks? For all the kyle wilson haters out there is prince akaumura a bust too?

    Ted Thompson - who had a huge hit with clay matthews, but has failed to find a good Oline?

    Ozzie Newsome - Probably has the best track record, even though jimmy smith has so far been "a bust".

    Trent Baalke - Great recent picks in kapernick, aldon smith and their Oline.

    My point is even the BEST personnel/draft guys in the league have hits and misses. The draft is an inexact science and there is no single GM out there that has hit on every pick, its simply not statitically possibe. What most good personnel people do is not trade picks, focus on best available player as opposed to need picks, and understand that the more picks (chances) they have, the better chance they will find good or great players - who will play at low salaries. Lastly, no GM is able to see every player...especially the mid round players that are so vital to a roster, he has to rely on his scouts and then make the ultimate decision.

    Now, the salary cap, and managing free agent contracts, that is something that can be a MUCH more exact science as it is based on value and math. Something that Idzik excels at (Math degree from Dartmouth). Furthermore, there is NO WAY that a guy who was director of football operations for Arizona and now holds the similar position for the seahawks, isnt involved in the draft or player evaluations. Does not having 5 years in scouting really make him less qualified to evaluate and select players for an NFL roster?

    At the end of the day, the GM is the CEO, he needs to set an organizational philosophy, hire good scouts, and build a roster. Tasks that have virtually nothing to do with whether or not he drove around the mid-west when he was 25 years old watching practices. He has helped build winning rosters in the league, lets hope he can do it here.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by eaglenj View Post
    While the media people who cover this team have no clue and also apparently a vendetta of sorts to make the Jets look like idiots, I wanted to mention this whole Capologist thing.

    Who is the best Drafter/Personnel man in the NFL today?

    Jerry Reese, who basically lucked into JPP and has had some questionable picks? For all the kyle wilson haters out there is prince akaumura a bust too?

    Ted Thompson - who had a huge hit with clay matthews, but has failed to find a good Oline?

    Ozzie Newsome - Probably has the best track record, even though jimmy smith has so far been "a bust".

    Trent Baalke - Great recent picks in kapernick, aldon smith and their Oline.

    My point is even the BEST personnel/draft guys in the league have hits and misses. The draft is an inexact science and there is no single GM out there that has hit on every pick, its simply not statitically possibe. What most good personnel people do is not trade picks, focus on best available player as opposed to need picks, and understand that the more picks (chances) they have, the better chance they will find good or great players - who will play at low salaries. Lastly, no GM is able to see every player...especially the mid round players that are so vital to a roster, he has to rely on his scouts and then make the ultimate decision.

    Now, the salary cap, and managing free agent contracts, that is something that can be a MUCH more exact science as it is based on value and math. Something that Idzik excels at (Math degree from Dartmouth). Furthermore, there is NO WAY that a guy who was director of football operations for Arizona and now holds the similar position for the seahawks, isnt involved in the draft or player evaluations. Does not having 5 years in scouting really make him less qualified to evaluate and select players for an NFL roster?

    At the end of the day, the GM is the CEO, he needs to set an organizational philosophy, hire good scouts, and build a roster. Tasks that have virtually nothing to do with whether or not he drove around the mid-west when he was 25 years old watching practices. He has helped build winning rosters in the league, lets hope he can do it here.
    Good, thoughtful post. Minor point of disagreement....Woody is the CEO. It seems like Korn/Ferry has so far had an impact on the culture of the Jets., keeping things quiet and acting in a professional manner. Hopefully, that will continue. Maybe Woody should hire the guy from Korn/Ferry and let him build a staff.

  3. #3
    most draft picks are misses. though if you really hit on a few, it makes up the difference and then some, kind of what SF is enjoying right now

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by BamaJets View Post
    most draft picks are misses. though if you really hit on a few, it makes up the difference and then some, kind of what SF is enjoying right now
    SF has really had an unreal run of picks. The safe picks like Iupati worked out. Their "risk" Anthony Davis has manged to work out. Then they happened to be bad the year that there were 5-7 great pass rushers availabel and they got one.

    Now it appears they stashed a read-option QB at the exact right time. Definitely some skill in selecting and some good luck.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by eaglenj View Post


    At the end of the day, the GM is the CEO, he needs to set an organizational philosophy, hire good scouts, and build a roster. Tasks that have virtually nothing to do with whether or not he drove around the mid-west when he was 25 years old watching practices. He has helped build winning rosters in the league, lets hope he can do it here.

    Bingo, Micky Loomis never held a stopwatch in his life, Didn't stop him fro acquiring Brees, Vilma, Sproles, drafting Colston in the 7th, Graham in the 3rd and drafting one of the best olines in the game.

    He has to find personnel people he can trust. The GM may scout 1st rd picks but that is it. he has to put a good organization into place. It is good that he has worked for three teams recently, he has some nice contacts of people he respects, He may have to wait until contracts expire but he will have his chance

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglenj View Post
    While the media people who cover this team have no clue and also apparently a vendetta of sorts to make the Jets look like idiots, I wanted to mention this whole Capologist thing.

    Who is the best Drafter/Personnel man in the NFL today?

    Jerry Reese, who basically lucked into JPP and has had some questionable picks? For all the kyle wilson haters out there is prince akaumura a bust too?

    Ted Thompson - who had a huge hit with clay matthews, but has failed to find a good Oline?

    Ozzie Newsome - Probably has the best track record, even though jimmy smith has so far been "a bust".

    Trent Baalke - Great recent picks in kapernick, aldon smith and their Oline.

    My point is even the BEST personnel/draft guys in the league have hits and misses. The draft is an inexact science and there is no single GM out there that has hit on every pick, its simply not statitically possibe. What most good personnel people do is not trade picks, focus on best available player as opposed to need picks, and understand that the more picks (chances) they have, the better chance they will find good or great players - who will play at low salaries. Lastly, no GM is able to see every player...especially the mid round players that are so vital to a roster, he has to rely on his scouts and then make the ultimate decision.

    Now, the salary cap, and managing free agent contracts, that is something that can be a MUCH more exact science as it is based on value and math. Something that Idzik excels at (Math degree from Dartmouth). Furthermore, there is NO WAY that a guy who was director of football operations for Arizona and now holds the similar position for the seahawks, isnt involved in the draft or player evaluations. Does not having 5 years in scouting really make him less qualified to evaluate and select players for an NFL roster?

    At the end of the day, the GM is the CEO, he needs to set an organizational philosophy, hire good scouts, and build a roster. Tasks that have virtually nothing to do with whether or not he drove around the mid-west when he was 25 years old watching practices. He has helped build winning rosters in the league, lets hope he can do it here.
    Negotiating a clever cap contract is a very different skill set than the ability to prudently decide which players to try and sign and which ones to not try and sign. Our last GM was supposedly a "capologist" but he made very very poor decisions about who to sign and for how much.

    We are going to be digging out from under that particular cap mess for quite a while and it will take at least a lost year to do that. Probably two years.

    Going for another "capologist" if he is anything like the last one would be a complete and utter disaster IMO.

  7. #7
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    I think you have to really evauleate a guy with the picks in the middle to late rounds. 3-7 is where GM's make thier money. Tons of homework goes into these guys because they are overlooked or lack some trait that prevents them from going in the earlier rounds. When you find that "diamond" in the rough, it makes you look like a genious.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by EM31 View Post
    Negotiating a clever cap contract is a very different skill set than the ability to prudently decide which players to try and sign and which ones to not try and sign. Our last GM was supposedly a "capologist" but he made very very poor decisions about who to sign and for how much.

    We are going to be digging out from under that particular cap mess for quite a while and it will take at least a lost year to do that. Probably two years.

    Going for another "capologist" if he is anything like the last one would be a complete and utter disaster IMO.
    Let me ask you a question about "our capologist tannenbaum".

    If he didnt gaurantee sanchezs contract and we had $8 million in additional cap room and no ties to him for 2013, would he have gotten fired?

    If he was a capologist and terrible GM, does he get credit for picking revis, mangold, wilkerson, coples, kerley etc?

    Tannenbaum failed because he didnt see the fact that to win, you need young inexperienced players, trading draft picks for veterans that you then need to give FA contracts to doesnt work. Is that something a career scout knows better then a guy like Idzik?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglenj View Post
    Let me ask you a question about "our capologist tannenbaum".

    If he didnt gaurantee sanchezs contract and we had $8 million in additional cap room and no ties to him for 2013, would he have gotten fired?

    If he was a capologist and terrible GM, does he get credit for picking revis, mangold, wilkerson, coples, kerley etc?

    Tannenbaum failed because he didnt see the fact that to win, you need young inexperienced players, trading draft picks for veterans that you then need to give FA contracts to doesnt work. Is that something a career scout knows better then a guy like Idzik?
    There are numerous short term decisions that would have gotten him fired by me way before he re-upped Sanchez.

    BOTH Revis contracts were a mess.

    The Renegotiation of Bart Scott was a huge mess brought about primarily by his mismanagement of the near term cap horizon leading to his need to get players to rework their contracts. "Rework" of this kind is almost always code speak for the player providing cap relief in the short term in exchange for increased "uncuttability" in the longer term.

    Harris was a similar lack of near term cap planning leading to a "more expensive than necessary" deal.

    The four decent picks you mention pale in comparison to the draft picks traded away plus the laundry list of draft busts that he is responsible for. None of the better franchises trade away picks at the rate we have done. None of them. That is why they are the "better franchises". We have run our salary cap like a drunken sailor who spends his paycheck on Friday night and then borrows money with the promise to pay people back with interest at some time in the future.

    All of that mess was before the Sanchez debacle but honestly it was consistent with the pattern.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by EM31 View Post
    There are numerous short term decisions that would have gotten him fired by me way before he re-upped Sanchez.

    BOTH Revis contracts were a mess.

    The Renegotiation of Bart Scott was a huge mess brought about primarily by his mismanagement of the near term cap horizon leading to his need to get players to rework their contracts. "Rework" of this kind is almost always code speak for the player providing cap relief in the short term in exchange for increased "uncuttability" in the longer term.

    Harris was a similar lack of near term cap planning leading to a "more expensive than necessary" deal.

    The four decent picks you mention pale in comparison to the draft picks traded away plus the laundry list of draft busts that he is responsible for. None of the better franchises trade away picks at the rate we have done. None of them. That is why they are the "better franchises". We have run our salary cap like a drunken sailor who spends his paycheck on Friday night and then borrows money with the promise to pay people back with interest at some time in the future.

    All of that mess was before the Sanchez debacle but honestly it was consistent with the pattern.
    The above bolded part of what you said is completely correct....and shows the need for someone like Idzik who understands an overall philosophy and the cap instead of a scout....

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglenj View Post
    Let me ask you a question about "our capologist tannenbaum".

    If he didnt gaurantee sanchezs contract and we had $8 million in additional cap room and no ties to him for 2013, would he have gotten fired?

    If he was a capologist and terrible GM, does he get credit for picking revis, mangold, wilkerson, coples, kerley etc?

    Tannenbaum failed because he didnt see the fact that to win, you need young inexperienced players, trading draft picks for veterans that you then need to give FA contracts to doesnt work. Is that something a career scout knows better then a guy like Idzik?

    He handcuffed himself to Sanchez the minute he offered that extension last year. If Sanchez had played well, Tanny would have looked like a genius, and would still be here.

    I think staying completely away from cap people just because Tanny was one would have been foolish. Tanny's problem was he allowed his coach to heavily influence his decision-making. When Mangini was here, Tanny was all about high-character guys (sometimes disregarding their lack of talent in the process). Then Rex came in, and the high-character mantra completely went out the door.

    A GM MUST lean on his scouts as much, if not more than, his head coach when drafting players or signing free agents. They've analyzed the players a heck of lot more than the coaches have, so their input should always come strongly into consideration. Tanny sometimes ignored his scouts and did what Rex or Mangini wanted. Hence the Gholston, boar-hunter, John Conner, and Sanchez's buddy type draft picks. I would love to know the scouting department's opinions on some of those players.
    Last edited by Sourceworx; 01-18-2013 at 09:23 AM.

  12. #12
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    It helps when you pick in the top ten for an entire decade (except for the Raiders)

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Braumeister View Post
    He handcuffed himself to Sanchez the minute he offered that extension last year. If Sanchez had played well, Tanny would have looked like a genius, and would still be here.

    I think staying completely away from cap people just because Tanny was one would have been foolish. Tanny's problem was he allowed his coach to heavily influence his decision-making. When Mangini was here, Tanny was all about high-character guys (sometimes disregarding their lack of talent in the process). Then Rex came in, and the high-character mantra completely went out the door.

    A GM MUST lean on his scouts as much, if not more than, his head coach when drafting players or signing free agents. They've analyzed the players a heck of lot more than the coaches have, so their input should always come strongly into consideration. Tanny sometimes ignored his scouts and did what Rex or Mangini wanted. Hence the Gholston, boar-hunter, John Conner, and Sanchez's buddy type draft picks. I would love to know the scouting department's opinions on some of those players.
    Isn't this the supposed reason that Clinkscales left?

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetlifer View Post
    Isn't this the supposed reason that Clinkscales left?
    His college buddy is running things in Oakland. Plus the move was considered a promotion.

  15. #15
    many of tanny's failures would have been overlooked if sanchez turned into even a decent qb. tanny knew his only hope of continuing as gm here was if sanchez improved, so he extended sanchez out of selfishness. if sanchez stunk, tanny was a goner and it didn't matter to tanny in what state he left the team. the gholston, ducasse picks and trades he'd made would have been weighed against having a good qb, and he would have stayed. it all hinged on sanchez, from tanny's perspective.

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