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Thread: 2013 - The Lost Season

  1. #1

    2013 - The Lost Season

    As bleak as things are right now, I really think everyone needs to relax about 2013 being a “lost year”.

    Lets look at this objectively and see what it would take to go from the 6 wins we had in 2012 to 10 wins in 2013 (obviously we cannot account for injuries or strength of schedule).

    We can start with the obvious: We will get back the services of the best CB in the league or get a least one high additional draft pick to fill a spot that needs addressing. While he is a complete a-hole, we will still be getting back a top WR in Santonio. Whoever starts at TE will be an upgrage over 2012 jeff Cumberland (albeit a slight one). Lastly we will replace an OC who had absolutely no clue how to run an NFL offense with someone who has had very successful offenses and QB improvement under his watch.

    Now, the key to any team is the QB play and for all the talk about Alex Smith, lets look at his 2011 season as a barometer.

    61% 3100 yards, 17 tds and 5 picks. Good enough for 19th in yards, and 17th in TDs – relatively pedestrian season but he helped his team by not turning the ball over.

    In 2012 Sanchez: 54% 2800 yards 13 tds and 18 picks along with 11 fumbles lost (per profootball reference)

    Do you know what a STAGGERING difference those 2 seasons are, and Smith in 2011 was FAR from elite (and that is with no receiver other then crabtree and Vernon davis having over 30 catches).

    Moving on to Shonne Greene and his pathetic 3.9 yard average and inability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Greenes YPC was in the neighborhood of 25th overall (depending on how many carries you count a RB being eligible for comparison). His inability to make even 1 tackler miss was so poor, that moving to Bilal Powell as the starter and finding a semi-capable backup will move that needle at minimum from 3.9 to 4.2 (personally I think it will be higher but lets be conservative).

    Now for the negatives:

    We have to replace at least one safety, 1-2 guards, find a TE, 1 ILB and 2 OLBs.

    As for the LB positions, our production was so low (aside from BT setting the edge in the run defense) that whatever we find from demario davis, and hopefully a first round rookie, along with a 3rd fill in cant be much worse then what pace, BT, and Bart gave us.

    Moore and Slauson are more difficult to replace, but hopefully one of them (slauson IMO) can return and we can draft a RG.

    Safety is much harder to predict and is a big hole that needs to be filled.
    So for all the negatives will some of them be helped by the hopeful improvement of young players like Howard and Stephen Hil?

    Overall I have no interest in alex smith, he was used for comparison only, but Matt Flynn is perfect for the type of offense MM wants to run. Furthermore, while our cap is bad, we have should be able to fill OLB , OG, and backup RB within our first 4 selections, filling many of the holes we have, with young, but probably faster more talented players.

    I think everyone who says 2013 is LOST, should think how many wins were simply thrown away by sanchez alone and what a QB like Flynn, playing AVERAGE, would do for team getting revis and holmes back as well as finding a RB that can run and an OC that understands offense.

  2. #2
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    When I talk to young Jets fans I tell them that 87 to 97 was the lost decade.
    these are kids who think Pennington was the answer.

  3. #3
    Been saying this for a while now. Jets won 6 games last year and got virtually zero production from their QB. That is almost impossible. Our defense was really and will be even better this (with or without Revis).

    IF, and its a big IF, MM can fix our offense and if we can find a QB to help make that happen we could easily win 3 or 4 more games next year.

  4. #4
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    Do things look promising? No they don't, but anyone that writes off an
    NFL season obviously doesn't pay attention to what happens around the
    league. Every year a team goes from "worst to first" and everyone is
    amazed at how they did it

  5. #5
    I don't think the Jets are going to be a 3 win team. They could very well make the playoffs if things go just right for them. However the team should in no way be making decisions that will delay or sidetrack the inevitable. They need to look ahead, clear up the cap mess even if it means pain this year and look to 2014 to make hay. I do not see this team as a super bowl team and I feel you should be in one of two modes at all times.

    1) Actively looking to add to win the superbowl if you feel you are close.
    2) Rebuilding if you are not close.

  6. #6
    I don't see it as a lost year at all. I think there is no doubt we get better in the off season. Slauson, Howard, Scott, Pace, Thomas, Greene! These will not be hard players to replace sorry. You can find talent of that caliber on the scrap heap making min. Really only Keller and Landry are the 2 guys we need to worry about loosing and neither where spectacular. If we get 2 now OLB in the 1st 4 rounds we are already better then last year. Any QB that can throw the ball TO his WRs we are better. A TE that can block, a RB that can break a tackle, or even a RT that isn't a revolving door. Any of that would improve this team. We have some very good pieces a smart GM can build around IMO. This is not Cleveland 2-3 years ago or a 0-16 Detroit team. Or even a 87 Jets bad.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    I don't think the Jets are going to be a 3 win team. They could very well make the playoffs if things go just right for them. However the team should in no way be making decisions that will delay or sidetrack the inevitable. They need to look ahead, clear up the cap mess even if it means pain this year and look to 2014 to make hay. I do not see this team as a super bowl team and I feel you should be in one of two modes at all times.

    1) Actively looking to add to win the superbowl if you feel you are close.
    2) Rebuilding if you are not close.
    Beer - Im with you 100% and I think if we (idzik) just keeps it simple we can wind up accomplishing both things. What does a team need to do to rebuild:

    1. Dump aging veterans - Already a definite with eric smith, bart, pace, BT and probably with Moore.

    2. Dont save today and mortgage the future - we dont have anyone to even do that if we wanted to

    3. Keep your picks - Done as we have a full slate for the first time in a long time.

    4. Play your young guys - We will have no choice and will have 2nd year starters in coples and demario and 3rd year starters in powell, wilkerson, and kerley.

    Then there are the things we "CAN" do

    1. Not overpay for positions that you cant afford to - Landry
    2. Trade expensive contracts (revis or cro) - No idea what to do here and i dont want hijack a perfectly good football convo
    3. Restructure older, useful players - pouha

    The key happens to be finding a QB, and while it could cost us "something" either salary or a pick, flynn happens to be available an fit what we want to do.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    I don't think the Jets are going to be a 3 win team. They could very well make the playoffs if things go just right for them. However the team should in no way be making decisions that will delay or sidetrack the inevitable. They need to look ahead, clear up the cap mess even if it means pain this year and look to 2014 to make hay. I do not see this team as a super bowl team and I feel you should be in one of two modes at all times.

    1) Actively looking to add to win the superbowl if you feel you are close.
    2) Rebuilding if you are not close.
    Any way you look at it, we're rebuilding. We're going to be replacing a lot of starters/contributors. The good news is most of those players suck, so they really won't be missed.

    - Shonn Greene is gone. Not only can you easily replace him, you can easily replace him with someone better than he is.

    - Ditto Mark Sanchez

    - Ditto Matt Slauson

    - Ditto Dustin Keller

    - Ditto Bart Scott

    - Ditto Calvin pace

    - Ditto Bryan Thomas

    Get the picture? Most of these players are terrible. The only ones I want (hope) we can keep are Landry and Bell. But if they're looking for big pay days, then let them walk.

    A good draft, and some smart moves in free agency (and some worthwhile trades), and 2013 is a much better team than what we saw in 2012.

    Super Bowl contenders? No.

    Competitive? Yes.

  9. #9
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    all we need to do is get in the playoffs. once we do, Sanchez has a 95 rating in 6 playoff games on the road.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    I don't think the Jets are going to be a 3 win team. They could very well make the playoffs if things go just right for them. However the team should in no way be making decisions that will delay or sidetrack the inevitable. They need to look ahead, clear up the cap mess even if it means pain this year and look to 2014 to make hay. I do not see this team as a super bowl team and I feel you should be in one of two modes at all times.

    1) Actively looking to add to win the superbowl if you feel you are close.
    2) Rebuilding if you are not close.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Sourceworx View Post
    Any way you look at it, we're rebuilding. We're going to be replacing a lot of starters/contributors. The good news is most of those players suck, so they really won't be missed.

    Competitive? Yes.
    I could have saved 15 minutes of writing a post by just using the above sentence.

    100% correct, most teams that are in a position where they are "forced" to dump 30+ million of contracts rarely get to do it without losing a single good player.

    Jason Smith, Eric Smith, Bart, and BT certainly wont be missed.

  11. #11
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    We start out our season looking good; Sanchez had his confidence and the Defense had Revis; Keller and Santonio were healthy.
    We beat Buffalo big and lose to Steels in Pitts. Beat Dolfins in Miami and lose Revis.

    The 49er cleaned our clock and Sanchez gets traumatized. Took a big hit where he left the ground. We realize Wayne Hunter is a big problem.
    Next game Houston's JJ Watt has his way with Sanchez and Wayne Hunter is a turnstile. The whole season was up and down like that. We lost Holmes and Keller got injured and was never the same. Hill get dropsies and gets injured also. Hill drops a perfect pass in a game we had we had Pats beat.

    Sep 9 BuffaloW 48-28
    Sep 16@PittsburghL 10-27
    Sep 23 @Miami W 23-20
    Sep 30 San Francisco L 0-34
    Oct 8 Houston L 17-23

    A few good draft picks and we could make the playoffs again.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by JetItalia View Post
    all we need to do is get in the playoffs. once we do, Sanchez has a 95 rating in 6 playoff games on the road.
    Wow.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglenj View Post
    I could have saved 15 minutes of writing a post by just using the above sentence.

    100% correct, most teams that are in a position where they are "forced" to dump 30+ million of contracts rarely get to do it without losing a single good player.

    Jason Smith, Eric Smith, Bart, and BT certainly wont be missed.
    Exactly. Dumping Sanchez will hurt, only because of the hit on the salary cap. Certainly not for the loss in "production."

    The rest of those guys? Please! Based on their performance and salary, we're better off with all of them gone.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by RMJK View Post
    We start out our season looking good; Sanchez had his confidence and the Defense had Revis; Keller and Santonio were healthy.
    We beat Buffalo big and lose to Steels in Pitts. Beat Dolfins in Miami and lose Revis.

    The 49er cleaned our clock and Sanchez gets traumatized. Took a big hit where he left the ground. We realize Wayne Hunter is a big problem.
    Next game Houston's JJ Watt has his way with Sanchez and Wayne Hunter is a turnstile. The whole season was up and down like that. We lost Holmes and Keller got injured and was never the same. Hill get dropsies and gets injured also. Hill drops a perfect pass in a game we had we had Pats beat.

    Sep 9 BuffaloW 48-28
    Sep 16@PittsburghL 10-27
    Sep 23 @Miami W 23-20
    Sep 30 San Francisco L 0-34
    Oct 8 Houston L 17-23

    A few good draft picks and we could make the playoffs again.

    Snackchez wasn't the same after a big hit in Pitts, IIRC. Also, why are you bringing up Hunter, he wasn't even here. You thinking of '11?

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by RMJK View Post
    We start out our season looking good; Sanchez had his confidence and the Defense had Revis; Keller and Santonio were healthy.
    We beat Buffalo big and lose to Steels in Pitts. Beat Dolfins in Miami and lose Revis.

    The 49er cleaned our clock and Sanchez gets traumatized. Took a big hit where he left the ground. We realize Wayne Hunter is a big problem.
    Next game Houston's JJ Watt has his way with Sanchez and Wayne Hunter is a turnstile. The whole season was up and down like that. We lost Holmes and Keller got injured and was never the same. Hill get dropsies and gets injured also. Hill drops a perfect pass in a game we had we had Pats beat.

    Sep 9 BuffaloW 48-28
    Sep 16@PittsburghL 10-27
    Sep 23 @Miami W 23-20
    Sep 30 San Francisco L 0-34
    Oct 8 Houston L 17-23

    A few good draft picks and we could make the playoffs again.
    Umm ... you do realise we traded Wayne Hunter before the season started, don't you?

  16. #16
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    You are looking at this all wrong. Its not about going from 6 to 10 wins. its about going from 6 to 3 wins.

    This is about being ready to compete in 2016. and to do that, we need to pick in the top 5 of the draft in 2014/2015. Preferably have the #1 pick in 1, if not both of those years.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe W. Namath View Post
    You are looking at this all wrong. Its not about going from 6 to 10 wins. its about going from 6 to 3 wins.

    This is about being ready to compete in 2016. and to do that, we need to pick in the top 5 of the draft in 2014/2015. Preferably have the #1 pick in 1, if not both of those years.
    Sweet strategy.

    The statistical odds of landing the #1 pick are beyond slim, and teddy bridgewater is no andrew luck.

    F-It, lets tank for 3 years, why bother playing

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by brady's a catcher View Post
    Snackchez wasn't the same after a big hit in Pitts, IIRC. Also, why are you bringing up Hunter, he wasn't even here. You thinking of '11?
    The key was Sanchez get hit illegally and there arent even any penalties called!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe W. Namath View Post
    You are looking at this all wrong. Its not about going from 6 to 10 wins. its about going from 6 to 3 wins.

    This is about being ready to compete in 2016. and to do that, we need to pick in the top 5 of the draft in 2014/2015. Preferably have the #1 pick in 1, if not both of those years.
    The Packers/Patriots/Saints/Broncos/STeelers/Ravens never had to finish in last place for 3 straight years to turn things around(big ben and flacco were takien just about where the jets are picking this year). Its just a really stupid idea to intentionally tank a season on the hopes that there will be a player at number 1 that will change the franchise. The Niners were that bad once and it got them Alex Smith.

    Meanwhile, while GM Joe W. Namath tanks the next 3 years we just used 3 of the best years of Mangold/Dbrick/Revis/Cro/M Wilkerson etc... By the time these high draft picks pan out it will be time to look for replacements for the stars we already have.

    In the NFL you try to win every year and hope to steal an Aaron Rodgers/Brees/Big Ben/Brady along the way to set you up for a decade.

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