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Thread: Jets Performance Based Value (PFF)

  1. #1

    Jets Performance Based Value (PFF)

    Great read on seeing who is worth their contract and who is not. Good bit on Howard -- the NFL's 4th rated run-blocking RT last year.

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...w-york-jets-2/


    Undervalued

    1. Muhammad Wilkerson, Defensive End

    While J.J. Watt and Geno Atkins stole a lot of the attention for interior defenders this year, you shouldn’t ignore the kind of year Wilkerson had. His 10.9 Run Stop Percentage would have led 3-4 defensive ends in 2011 and finished behind just Watt and Justin Smith this year. There were very few bright spots for the New York Jets’ defense, but this is one that stands out. While the Jets might hold back from paying defensive players big money from their past mistakes, one day Wilkerson will need that big contract.

    2012 Cap Hit: $1.6m
    2012 Performance Based Value: $10.5m
    Value Differential: +$8.9m

    2. Austin Howard, Offensive Tackle

    It isn’t all that often that you can stick an undrafted player who has yet to play an offensive snap in at right tackle and it work out well. He had the fourth-highest run blocking rating amongst right takcles behind Anthony Davis, Phil Loadholt, and Andre Smith. As the season went on, his pass blocking improved and he wound up a respectable right tackle. Anytime you can get a suitable starter for the league minimum, you’ve done something right.

    2012 Cap Hit: $540k
    2012 Performance Based Value: $3.4m
    Value Differential: +$2.8m

    3. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Offensive Tackle

    You might be surprised to find Ferguson on this list, but it was a case where Ferguson restructured his contract prior to the 2012 season which resulted in a lower cap hit for 2012 and higher one in future years. Regardless, he was amongst the best left tackles in the league — one of just four to have 500 or more pass blocks, and allow two or fewer sacks. He also tied for ninth in terms of total pressure allowed with 26.

    2012 Cap Hit: $4.5m
    2012 Performance Based Value: $7.1m
    Value Differential: +$2.7m

    4. Mike Devito, DE – Cap: $2.5m, PBV: $4.2m, Value Differential: +$1.7m

    5. Jeff Cumberland, TE – Cap: $540k, PBV: $1.6m, Value Differential: +$1m

    6. Jeremy Kerley, WR – Cap: $500k, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: +$1m

    7. Matt Slauson, G – Cap: $1.1m, PBV: $2.0m, Value Differential: +$900k

    8. Bilal Powell, TE – Cap: $570k, PBV: $1.4m, Value Differential: +$850k

    9. Clyde Gates, WR – Cap: $465k, PBV: $1.3m, Value Differential: +$850k

    10. Brandon Moore, G – Cap: $4.5m, PBV: $5.2m, Value Differential: +$700k



    Overvalued

    1. David Harris, Inside Linebacker

    This offseason the Jets already released two of their overpaid linebackers, yet the most overpaid of the group, David Harris, remains. He makes stops less frequently than the average inside linebacker and misses tackles more often. In the past he performed better in coverage, but with no interceptions and more missed tackles this year, he was much closer to an average player in that regard. He was overpaid when he signed his second contract, and he doesn’t seem to be getting any better.

    2012 Cap Hit: $12.0m
    2012 Performance Based Value: $1.1m
    Value Differential: -$10.9m

    2. Darrelle Revis, Cornerback*

    It isn’t entirely fair to put Revis here because he only played in two games this season. What is probably more surprising is that he didn’t end up at the top of the list. Regardless, the Jets didn’t get their money’s worth on Revis during the 2012 season as he was paid over $100,000 per defensive snap he took.

    2012 Cap Hit: $11.5m
    2012 Performance Based Value: $950k
    Value Differential: -$10.6m

    3. Santonio Holmes, Wide Receiver*

    You never want to get into the habit of making excuses for a team, but when their best defensive player goes down with an injury followed by their best skill player, chances are the season isn’t going to end well. Regardless of the injury, Holmes has already seen his catches decrease by 10 from 2010 to 2011, and yards per catch decrease from 14.3 to 12.8. Even if Holmes played similarly to 2011 he would be overvalued, and his cap hit is just going to increase these next few years.

    2012 Cap Hit: $9.3m
    2012 Performance Based Value: $825k
    Value Differential: -$8.4m

    4. Calvin Pace, OLB – Cap: $7.3m, PBV: $1.1m, Value Differential: -$6.3m

    5. Mark Sanchez, QB – Cap: $7.9m, PBV: $2.4m, Value Differential: -$5.5m

    6. Bart Scott, ILB – Cap: $6.0m, PBV: $2.4m, Value Differential: -$3.6m

    7. Dustin Keller, TE – Cap: $4.0m, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: -$2.5m

    8. LaRon Landry, S – Cap: $3.5m, PBV: $1.3m, Value Differential: -$2.2m

    9. Tim Tebow, QB – Cap: $2.6m, PBV: $1.2m, Value Differential: -$1.4m

    10.Jason Smith, T – Cap: $2.4m, PBV: $1.1m, Value Differential: -$1.3m

    (* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)



    Summary – Team Value Differential: -$32.2m

    The Jets ended up as one of the worst teams when comparing money spent to what they got out of it. A large part of that were the two injured players. Luckily, the future isn’t as grim. Of the seven players rounding out their Top 10 overvalued, three have already been released, two are free agents, and rumors are Tim Tebow won’t be back. Now they just need to find even more value in their young players.



    Follow Nathan on Twitter: @PFF_NateJahnke

  2. #2
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    Tannenbaum really ****ed us with some of those contracts. Harris, Holmes, Pace and Sanchez were all big swings and misses. It wasn't acquiring them that was the mistake, it was extending them.

  3. #3
    I'm surprised by the Landry statistic.

    Actually, many of the stats on Landry explain his value to have had a negative impact overall.

  4. #4
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    No surprised here. PFF was high on our OL pretty much all year. Same for Wilk.

    I still think we need to make upgrades b.c our QBs need a great OL to be functional.

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    How in the world is Eric Smith not on that list.

  6. #6
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    David harris has turned to crap ever since he signed that deal. He seems like a humble guy so i dont think the money got to his head. What has happened to him?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by John_0515 View Post
    I'm surprised by the Landry statistic.

    Actually, many of the stats on Landry explain his value to have had a negative impact overall.
    My BIL subscribes and told me that PFF analyzes players play by play. He said that PFF considered Landry the worst S in the league in terms of being out of position as plays evolved - is that true? What stats do you think are most telling?

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe W. Namath View Post
    David harris has turned to crap ever since he signed that deal. He seems like a humble guy so i dont think the money got to his head. What has happened to him?

    I think the decline of Scott hurt him plus the fact that our NT play was inconsistent with Pouha and Ellis continually hurt. Or maybe Harris just had a down year. That happened to D'Brick in '11 and he bounced back phenomenally this year. Or maybe Harris just isn't as good as many of us thought.

    It's probably a combination of all of those things.

    If he doesn't play well this year, we can always release him after the season. It would save $5MM on the '14 cap and only be $2MM in dead money.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Buzzsaw View Post
    Tannenbaum really ****ed us with some of those contracts. Harris, Holmes, Pace and Sanchez were all big swings and misses. It wasn't acquiring them that was the mistake, it was extending them.
    What about Santonio Holmes? Only one season over 1000 yards (when he was with Pittsburgh). We pay him $24M in guarantees, which we could have used for 4-5 solid players. We also make him captain. That year he shows he can't shoulder the load and ends up with only 654 yards. In addition, he acts like a complete ass to the point that they pull him during the most critical drives in the Miami game. This past year year he's out for 12 games. Next year he'll be gone, if not this year.

    His signing to me was the worst of the worst. Dump a bunch of money into a WR with a history of being a team cancer and ignore all the other needs.

    We could have filled alot of needs for that $24M, e.g. back up QB, OL, S, you name it.

  10. #10
    Interesting that 4 out of 5 of our OL, end up on the undervalued list.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Long Suffering Jets Fan View Post
    Interesting that 4 out of 5 of our OL, end up on the undervalued list.
    and that most of the players on the overvalued list will be cut or not re-signed. and revis may get traded.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Long Suffering Jets Fan View Post
    What about Santonio Holmes? Only one season over 1000 yards (when he was with Pittsburgh). We pay him $24M in guarantees, which we could have used for 4-5 solid players. We also make him captain. That year he shows he can't shoulder the load and ends up with only 654 yards. In addition, he acts like a complete ass to the point that they pull him during the most critical drives in the Miami game. This past year year he's out for 12 games. Next year he'll be gone, if not this year.

    His signing to me was the worst of the worst. Dump a bunch of money into a WR with a history of being a team cancer and ignore all the other needs.

    We could have filled alot of needs for that $24M, e.g. back up QB, OL, S, you name it.

    Yeah I mentioned him and agree with you, terrible move to give him that extension. Without that we could've been in play for someone like Greg Jennings this offseason, a better player and better teammate

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Long Suffering Jets Fan View Post
    What about Santonio Holmes? Only one season over 1000 yards (when he was with Pittsburgh). We pay him $24M in guarantees, which we could have used for 4-5 solid players. We also make him captain. That year he shows he can't shoulder the load and ends up with only 654 yards. In addition, he acts like a complete ass to the point that they pull him during the most critical drives in the Miami game. This past year year he's out for 12 games. Next year he'll be gone, if not this year.

    His signing to me was the worst of the worst. Dump a bunch of money into a WR with a history of being a team cancer and ignore all the other needs.

    We could have filled alot of needs for that $24M, e.g. back up QB, OL, S, you name it.
    Agreed this signing was the worst. Sanchez was a mistake but at least the guy is not a total ass. The sooner Holmes is gone the better. Even on his season ending injury play he bailed by just tossing the call on the ground for a turnover, low character, low production.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Long Suffering Jets Fan View Post
    What about Santonio Holmes? Only one season over 1000 yards (when he was with Pittsburgh). We pay him $24M in guarantees, which we could have used for 4-5 solid players. We also make him captain. That year he shows he can't shoulder the load and ends up with only 654 yards. In addition, he acts like a complete ass to the point that they pull him during the most critical drives in the Miami game. This past year year he's out for 12 games. Next year he'll be gone, if not this year.

    His signing to me was the worst of the worst. Dump a bunch of money into a WR with a history of being a team cancer and ignore all the other needs.

    We could have filled alot of needs for that $24M, e.g. back up QB, OL, S, you name it.
    I have always said that the Holmes contract was the worst contract Tanny handed out. Total panic move. The money never matched the production and potential of the player.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jungle Shift Jet View Post
    My BIL subscribes and told me that PFF analyzes players play by play. He said that PFF considered Landry the worst S in the league in terms of being out of position as plays evolved - is that true? What stats do you think are most telling?
    This is one of the areas (like OL) where I thing PFF is out of its league. How can they possibly know what Landry's assignment was?

    They basically have a guy who's a fan do their best guess as to what should have happened on a play.

    If you want to chart a CB like Revis in his man on man play, I think you can get a fairly accurate rating. But charting a safety or an OLineman where the assignments are unknown to the casual observer probably leads to rampant error when trying to figure out who is responsible for what.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by sec.101row23 View Post
    I have always said that the Holmes contract was the worst contract Tanny handed out. Total panic move. The money never matched the production and potential of the player.
    Nor did it match what the likely market was for him.

  17. #17
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    So glad Tanny is gone.

  18. #18
    First off, I had no idea Bilal Powell was moving to TE.

    Secondly, I think it's time to re-sign Clyde Gates.

    Thirdly, Howard? Eh. Went from suck to below mediocre at pass blocking and while he graded out as a good run blocker, much of that probably belongs to Brandon Moore, as the article noted. I'm not sold on him as others, for some odd reason, seem to be. He went from suck to below mediocre though. Kudos.

  19. #19
    The fact that Clyde Gates made the undervalued list shows how bad last season really was. I can't remember that many good plays Gates even made.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by JetsCrazey View Post
    The fact that Clyde Gates made the undervalued list shows how bad last season really was. I can't remember that many good plays Gates even made.
    Gates is better then Holmes. Gates is XPlosive Jack.

    Jets WR depth should look like:

    1 HOPKINS OR PATTERSON CMON JETS U NEED 1 of these WR's
    2 HILL
    3 KERLEY
    4 EDWARDS
    5 GATES or JDUB#17

    TRADE HOLMES!

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