No-brainer pick if he is there at #9. My guess is he won't even be there at #5, let alone #9. Somebody is going to trade up into the top 3 to make sure they get him. Would not be surprised in the least if Arizona or Buffalo trades up for him out of fear he'll be gone by their pick.
I honestly can't see him making it past 4 at this point. He should be 1 but KC spent too much on Smith to even make a smoke screen of it. He'd be a bargain at 9.
This is another fantasy post. There is no way this guy lasts to 9.
People only soured on this guy because Kiper never liked him and they heard Kiper and McShay screaming all offseason about how no QB was worthy of a first round pick. Now McShay is backtracking and honestly, Kiper has been wrong so many times about QB prospects, I'd take him with a grain of salt.
Not impressed with him what so ever. I'd much rather take Bridgewater or even Manziel next year.
Simply put: Top 10 draft picks do not grow on trees. With the rookie wage scale in place, they are even more valuable. You ABSOLUTELY 100% of the time must hit on the pick. They guy must be a sure fire starter and should almost always be a pro bowl contender at some point.
If you use a #9 on a QB, you are not going to use a top pick the following year on a QB (unless you are drafting first overall b/c you lost all your games and Andrew Luck is available). You will give him 2-3 years before you try to replace him. You have to give the #9 pick a chance to succeed. See: Sanchez.
If Geno was a #9 talent, I would be for picking him. BUT - everyone seem to see him as a late 1st/early 2nd round talent who may go early to team desperate to fill a need. He is not Luck. He is not RGIII. He is Jake Locker or Christian Ponder.
Last edited by Digetydog; 03-15-2013 at 05:16 PM.
No way do we risk our #9 on that guy or any other QB. We draft a stud and grab one in round 2 or 3.Most of these guys will be available in the 2nd and some later. Many of them have as much, if not more, potential than Smith.
Tyler Wilson QB 6'2⅛" 215 Arkansas 88 2 35
Matt Barkley QB 6'2½" 227 USC 87 3 36
Ryan Nassib QB 6'2⅛" 227 Syracuse 85 4 42
Landry Jones QB 6'4⅛" 225 Oklahoma 84 5 51
EJ Manuel QB 6'4⅝" 237 Florida State 81 6 66
Mike Glennon QB 6'7⅛" 225 North Carolina State 80 7 68
Tyler Bray QB 6'6⅛" 232 Tennessee 78 8 79
Last edited by SlickBri481; 03-15-2013 at 06:11 PM.
Smith is not a bad prospect, but he isn't in the Luck RGIII class either. Taking a huge risk at nine is dumb when there are viable prospects that will be available in the second round.
Furthermore, the fact that there are multiple rounds in the draft impacts the strategy for picking a QB. For simplicity, let's pretend that there are only 2 rounds.
Round 1: Pick QB - Smith at 9. Not a sure thing, you have to hope becomes special. If not, you are screwed.
Round 2: Pick best available LB/DL/OL. You are probably picking the 4-5th best guy at that position. In addition to lower upside, your draft failure rate will be higher than it would have been at the same position in the 1st round.
Round 1: You pick a "sure thing" at DL/OL/LB. He will be a starter in year 1. He has the potential to be a superstar. If you hit on him, the rookie wage scale means you are paying below market wages to him for 4 years.
Round 2: With the 9th pick, You have the choice of Glennon, Wilson, Nassib, or Manuel. If you hit (Kapernick/Wilson/Breeze), you have a huge win. If you miss, you haven't bet the farm and can try again next year.
While I don't think Smith will be a bust, there is too much risk at 9 to take him.
BTW - I like Nassib and Landry Jones. If the Jets get Jones with a third, they have huge upside and no risk.
Last edited by Digetydog; 03-15-2013 at 07:29 PM.