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Thread: Warming up on Geno...

  1. #41
    No-brainer pick if he is there at #9. My guess is he won't even be there at #5, let alone #9. Somebody is going to trade up into the top 3 to make sure they get him. Would not be surprised in the least if Arizona or Buffalo trades up for him out of fear he'll be gone by their pick.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by JonEJet View Post
    Once again I am dumber from reading your post.

    Andy Reid has the #1 overall pick, and he chose Alex Smith and Chase Daniels over Geno

    If Andy doesn't like him, and Andy knows QB's, it's good enough for me.
    Who is the best QB Reid ever drafted?

  3. #43
    I honestly can't see him making it past 4 at this point. He should be 1 but KC spent too much on Smith to even make a smoke screen of it. He'd be a bargain at 9.

  4. #44
    This is another fantasy post. There is no way this guy lasts to 9.

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    Who is the best QB Reid ever drafted?
    Reid's opinion honestly means jack to me. He might not even be a head coach in 2 years once he flames out of KC. That said, with the team he has, I can see him choosing a solid vet over a rookie QB. Anyone who thinks Reid trading for Alex Smith instead of drafting Geno is some type of indictment of Geno's skills is being ridiculous. Reid sees a talented team that he thinks he can win with if he puts in a vet who was near the top of the league in passer rating last season. I wouldn't read anything else into it. Reid knows squat about the college QBs from last season. He obviously knew plenty about Alex Smith and wanted him.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamers View Post
    I honestly can't see him making it past 4 at this point. He should be 1 but KC spent too much on Smith to even make a smoke screen of it. He'd be a bargain at 9.
    I wouldn't rule out Jax taking him at #2 either. I'm fairly certain that if the Bills or Cardinals want him, they pretty much understand they'd have to move up to get him. And we're behind them. So the idea of us getting him at #9 is pure fantasy.

    People only soured on this guy because Kiper never liked him and they heard Kiper and McShay screaming all offseason about how no QB was worthy of a first round pick. Now McShay is backtracking and honestly, Kiper has been wrong so many times about QB prospects, I'd take him with a grain of salt.

  7. #47
    Not impressed with him what so ever. I'd much rather take Bridgewater or even Manziel next year.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Axil View Post
    Not impressed with him what so ever. I'd much rather take Bridgewater or even Manziel next year.
    Who says either declares? Manziel also is not a very good pro prospect your crazy on that one. He is anther Tebow with the college hype and a very low up side in the NFL. If Bridgewater is what people are hyping him right now he is a Raider next year if not he is no better then Geno. Geno is here and now.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by SlickBri481 View Post
    I wouldn't rule out Jax taking him at #2 either. I'm fairly certain that if the Bills or Cardinals want him, they pretty much understand they'd have to move up to get him. And we're behind them. So the idea of us getting him at #9 is pure fantasy.

    People only soured on this guy because Kiper never liked him and they heard Kiper and McShay screaming all offseason about how no QB was worthy of a first round pick. Now McShay is backtracking and honestly, Kiper has been wrong so many times about QB prospects, I'd take him with a grain of salt.
    I agree with you on Jax they are a complete mystery. I have them taking the 1st OT just cuz. I am hoping they do sign Kolb because if it does I think it means B is off the table for them in the 1st. Philly seems most likely though.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Untouchable View Post
    There is no correlation between the Sanchez situation and taking Geno in the Top 10.

    With the rookie wage scale in place, these guys make peanuts compared to what they made 4 years ago.
    When we took Sanchez at #5, we gave him a $60 million dollar contract.

    If we took Geno at #9, he'd be getting something in the neighborhood of $12 million.

    Taking a QB in the Top 10 doesn't cripple you for the forseeable future anymore if he doesn't pan out. You can actually cut bait after Year 1 if you deem it necessary.
    Reading your post, I am reminded of Mel Kiper's rant about the Jets not understanding how the draft works. You clearly don't understand how the draft works.

    Simply put: Top 10 draft picks do not grow on trees. With the rookie wage scale in place, they are even more valuable. You ABSOLUTELY 100% of the time must hit on the pick. They guy must be a sure fire starter and should almost always be a pro bowl contender at some point.

    If you use a #9 on a QB, you are not going to use a top pick the following year on a QB (unless you are drafting first overall b/c you lost all your games and Andrew Luck is available). You will give him 2-3 years before you try to replace him. You have to give the #9 pick a chance to succeed. See: Sanchez.

    If Geno was a #9 talent, I would be for picking him. BUT - everyone seem to see him as a late 1st/early 2nd round talent who may go early to team desperate to fill a need. He is not Luck. He is not RGIII. He is Jake Locker or Christian Ponder.
    Last edited by Digetydog; 03-15-2013 at 04:16 PM.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Digetydog View Post
    Reading your post, I am reminded of Mel Kiper's rant about the Jets not understanding how the draft works.

    Simply put: Top 10 draft picks do not grow on trees. With the rookie wage scale in place, they are even more valuable. You ABSOLUTELY 100% of the time must hit on the pick. They guy must be a sure fire starter and should almost always be a pro bowl contender at some point.

    If you use a #9 on a QB, you are not going to use a top pick the following year on a QB (unless you are drafting first overall b/c you lost all your games and Andrew Luck is available). You will give him 2-3 years before you try to replace him. You have to give the #9 pick a chance to succeed.

    See: Sanchez.
    Agreed, it still cripples you for sure because youa re not going to dump a pick that high at QB after a couple of years. He will be given every chance to succeed even if he stinks. Meanwhile a real franchise guy might come up in the next year or two and you do not take him.

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Digetydog View Post
    Reading your post, I am reminded of Mel Kiper's rant about the Jets not understanding how the draft works. You clearly don't understand how the draft works.

    Simply put: Top 10 draft picks do not grow on trees. With the rookie wage scale in place, they are even more valuable. You ABSOLUTELY 100% of the time must hit on the pick. They guy must be a sure fire starter and should almost always be a pro bowl contender at some point.

    If you use a #9 on a QB, you are not going to use a top pick the following year on a QB (unless you are drafting first overall b/c you lost all your games and Andrew Luck is available). You will give him 2-3 years before you try to replace him. You have to give the #9 pick a chance to succeed. See: Sanchez.

    If Geno was a #9 talent, I would be for picking him. BUT - everyone seem to see him as a late 1st/early 2nd round talent who may go early to team desperate to fill a need. He is not Luck. He is not RGIII. He is Jake Locker or Christian Ponder.
    Actually most report compare him to Strafford who went 1. He actually has a higher upside then Strafford but a weaker arm. The 2 are comparable almost everywhere else. His big knock like Strafford was he always play shutgun. In these workouts he has looked good. I think Strafford was like 78 of 80 his 1st workout under C and Geno just went 77 of 80 in his Eagles workout.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    Who is the best QB Reid ever drafted?
    Brett Favre when he was in GB

    Not too shabby

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Digetydog View Post
    While picking a guy later is no guarantee of success (McElroy and many others), reaching for a QB who doesn't deserve to be picked in the Top 10 has proven OVER AND OVER to be a bad decision.

    Unless you think the guy deserves to be picked in the Top 5 (aka "A Sure Thing"), reaching for a QB because of Need is STUPID.

    Smith is a Mid-20s player. If the Jets end up with a pick in that area, they should consider picking him. If he falls to the 2nd round, he should be picked.

    The key to the draft is NOT TO REACH. You must pick sure things when they are available (at any position). Top 10 picks are incredibly valuable. A reach at 9 for Smith could cripple the team for years - see Mark Sanchez.
    Mike Mayock says he is a top ten pick and I think he knows more about it than you do......

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by JonEJet View Post
    Brett Favre when he was in GB

    Not too shabby
    Wasn't drafted by GB it was Atlanta

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by jetman in indy View Post
    Mike Mayock says he is a top ten pick and I think he knows more about it than you do......
    Mayock made some rants early on that scared me but he didn't think Geno would look good under C. His workouts so far have show other wise which is why so many are changing their minds. If he can get his footing right out of the pocket Geno looks like a pro QB with very good speed. If you want to use him like Mike Vick you can but he has the ability to be a pocket passer as well. All this we want Manziel and Bridgewater has really diluted some into thinking there is no talent in this draft. Fact is there is some very good talent here just no Luck or Elway guy you only see once every ten years or so. RG3 and Cam where not rated much higher then Geno coming out. People just like to play I told you so after the fact. Most QBs coming out of the draft are "gamble picks". Like the old saying goes in the lotto "You have to play to win".

  17. #57
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    Most of these guys will be available in the 2nd and some later. Many of them have as much, if not more, potential than Smith.

    Tyler Wilson QB 6'2⅛" 215 Arkansas 88 2 35
    Matt Barkley QB 6'2" 227 USC 87 3 36
    Ryan Nassib QB 6'2⅛" 227 Syracuse 85 4 42
    Landry Jones QB 6'4⅛" 225 Oklahoma 84 5 51
    EJ Manuel QB 6'4⅝" 237 Florida State 81 6 66
    Mike Glennon QB 6'7⅛" 225 North Carolina State 80 7 68
    Tyler Bray QB 6'6⅛" 232 Tennessee 78 8 79
    No way do we risk our #9 on that guy or any other QB. We draft a stud and grab one in round 2 or 3.

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Digetydog View Post
    If Geno was a #9 talent, I would be for picking him. BUT - everyone seem to see him as a late 1st/early 2nd round talent who may go early to team desperate to fill a need. He is not Luck. He is not RGIII. He is Jake Locker or Christian Ponder.
    You're not very familiar with the college careers of any of these players if you are comparing the 3 of them. Locker's completion percentage in college was in the 50s, Geno just had a full season at 71%. Ponder is physically smaller and far less gifted than either player and was thought of as a 3rd or 4th round pick during his final college season, he shot up boards very very late and still thought of as a 2nd rounder on the eve of the draft. Geno's been #1 overall on many mock drafts since September. It's actually an insult to him to compare him as a prospect to someone like Ponder.
    Last edited by SlickBri481; 03-15-2013 at 05:11 PM.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfellow View Post
    No way do we risk our #9 on that guy or any other QB. We draft a stud and grab one in round 2 or 3.
    I disagree on this even though I like Barkley more then Geno. Geno without a doubt has the most potential this year which is why he is talked as the best. He has the potential to be an accurate QB out of the pocket with Mike Vick like speed to back him up. Maybe not the huge size of Glennon but much farther along as a prospect. Glennon IMO is also a sure to go in the 1st prospect based on his raw potential. Everyone else doesn't have anywhere near the upside Geno does. All the others lack the natural ability or skills to be what Geno could be. If he works out could be a healthy version of Stafford which would be huge. Now as said I like Barkley more but his size limits his chances of being successful. His odds of being anther Brees are much slimmer then Geno being a Rodgers or Strafford type guy.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlickBri481 View Post
    You're not very familiar with the college careers of any of these players if you are comparing the 3 of them. Locker's completion percentage in college was in the 50s, Geno just had a full season at 71%. Ponder is physically smaller and far less gifted than either player and was thought of as a 3rd or 4th round pick during his final college season, he shot up boards very very late and still thought of as a 2nd rounder on the eve of the draft. Geno's been #1 overall on many mock drafts since September. It's actually an insult to him to compare him as a prospect to someone like Ponder.
    Geno played in the spread offense which tends to inflate completion percentages because of wide open receivers.

    Smith is not a bad prospect, but he isn't in the Luck RGIII class either. Taking a huge risk at nine is dumb when there are viable prospects that will be available in the second round.

    Furthermore, the fact that there are multiple rounds in the draft impacts the strategy for picking a QB. For simplicity, let's pretend that there are only 2 rounds.

    Option 1:

    Round 1: Pick QB - Smith at 9. Not a sure thing, you have to hope becomes special. If not, you are screwed.
    Round 2: Pick best available LB/DL/OL. You are probably picking the 4-5th best guy at that position. In addition to lower upside, your draft failure rate will be higher than it would have been at the same position in the 1st round.

    Option 2:
    Round 1: You pick a "sure thing" at DL/OL/LB. He will be a starter in year 1. He has the potential to be a superstar. If you hit on him, the rookie wage scale means you are paying below market wages to him for 4 years.
    Round 2: With the 9th pick, You have the choice of Glennon, Wilson, Nassib, or Manuel. If you hit (Kapernick/Wilson/Breeze), you have a huge win. If you miss, you haven't bet the farm and can try again next year.

    While I don't think Smith will be a bust, there is too much risk at 9 to take him.

    BTW - I like Nassib and Landry Jones. If the Jets get Jones with a third, they have huge upside and no risk.
    Last edited by Digetydog; 03-15-2013 at 06:29 PM.

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