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Thread: Bet Big to Win Big (Revis)

  1. #1

    Bet Big to Win Big (Revis)

    Obviously the Jets don't like the Bucs or any other offer right now or else Revis would have been shipped before the bonus today. I don't see any offer significantly changing before Revis proves he is healthy. Idzik should keep him on the roster to start the season and pay him his $3 million in bonuses. Once the season starts, Revis' salary cap number for the 2013 season for a trading partner is the prorated portion of $3 million.

    The gamble is Revis will show he is back to being a top corner within the first few weeks of the season and a contender will either lose a couple of early games, suffer an injury, etc. If healthy, the same teams previously mentioned (49ers, Broncos, Bucs, Falcons, etc) will have the need, proof of health and relatively modest salary cap number to deal with. At this point, a 1st round pick in 2014 and a conditional pick (3rd which converts to 2 or 1 if he signs with acquiring team) can be had in my opinion. If Revis is not healthy, we risk losing him for nothing (worst case scenario) but his leverage as a FA is also drastically reduced.

    This route will lead to a $9 million cap charge for the Jets in 2014 which sucks but cutting Sanchez, Holmes and Harris will save about $20 million in 2014.

    I think the 49ers would be the team to watch. I think they take a Patriots approach to this year's draft by trading some of their picks for 2014 picks. It's very easy to see how they can add an additional 1st round and maybe 2nd or 3rd round pick for 2014. How about a week 4 trade of Revis to SF for one of the 49ers 1st round picks in 2014 plus a conditional 3rd. If the 49ers make the Super Bowl, it bumps to a 2nd. If Revis re-signs, it bumps to a 1st.

    Cue the dump threads, 10 posts in 6 years comments. But bottom line is the Revis situation is a mess and we need to maximize the return. A 2nd round pick in 2013 for Revis would be a big mistake.

  2. #2
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    Good post. I can't argue with your logic, but I am guessing the Jets want to move Revis sooner than you propose.

  3. #3
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    the only way I would take a 2nd round this year is if it included also a conditional 1st in 2014....aside from that, i'd also wait and keep Revis if we have to.


    Quote Originally Posted by nutty27 View Post
    Obviously the Jets don't like the Bucs or any other offer right now or else Revis would have been shipped before the bonus today. I don't see any offer significantly changing before Revis proves he is healthy. Idzik should keep him on the roster to start the season and pay him his $3 million in bonuses. Once the season starts, Revis' salary cap number for the 2013 season for a trading partner is the prorated portion of $3 million.

    The gamble is Revis will show he is back to being a top corner within the first few weeks of the season and a contender will either lose a couple of early games, suffer an injury, etc. If healthy, the same teams previously mentioned (49ers, Broncos, Bucs, Falcons, etc) will have the need, proof of health and relatively modest salary cap number to deal with. At this point, a 1st round pick in 2014 and a conditional pick (3rd which converts to 2 or 1 if he signs with acquiring team) can be had in my opinion. If Revis is not healthy, we risk losing him for nothing (worst case scenario) but his leverage as a FA is also drastically reduced.

    This route will lead to a $9 million cap charge for the Jets in 2014 which sucks but cutting Sanchez, Holmes and Harris will save about $20 million in 2014.

    I think the 49ers would be the team to watch. I think they take a Patriots approach to this year's draft by trading some of their picks for 2014 picks. It's very easy to see how they can add an additional 1st round and maybe 2nd or 3rd round pick for 2014. How about a week 4 trade of Revis to SF for one of the 49ers 1st round picks in 2014 plus a conditional 3rd. If the 49ers make the Super Bowl, it bumps to a 2nd. If Revis re-signs, it bumps to a 1st.

    Cue the dump threads, 10 posts in 6 years comments. But bottom line is the Revis situation is a mess and we need to maximize the return. A 2nd round pick in 2013 for Revis would be a big mistake.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by nutty27 View Post
    Obviously the Jets don't like the Bucs or any other offer right now or else Revis would have been shipped before the bonus today. I don't see any offer significantly changing before Revis proves he is healthy. Idzik should keep him on the roster to start the season and pay him his $3 million in bonuses. Once the season starts, Revis' salary cap number for the 2013 season for a trading partner is the prorated portion of $3 million.

    The gamble is Revis will show he is back to being a top corner within the first few weeks of the season and a contender will either lose a couple of early games, suffer an injury, etc. If healthy, the same teams previously mentioned (49ers, Broncos, Bucs, Falcons, etc) will have the need, proof of health and relatively modest salary cap number to deal with. At this point, a 1st round pick in 2014 and a conditional pick (3rd which converts to 2 or 1 if he signs with acquiring team) can be had in my opinion. If Revis is not healthy, we risk losing him for nothing (worst case scenario) but his leverage as a FA is also drastically reduced.

    This route will lead to a $9 million cap charge for the Jets in 2014 which sucks but cutting Sanchez, Holmes and Harris will save about $20 million in 2014.

    I think the 49ers would be the team to watch. I think they take a Patriots approach to this year's draft by trading some of their picks for 2014 picks. It's very easy to see how they can add an additional 1st round and maybe 2nd or 3rd round pick for 2014. How about a week 4 trade of Revis to SF for one of the 49ers 1st round picks in 2014 plus a conditional 3rd. If the 49ers make the Super Bowl, it bumps to a 2nd. If Revis re-signs, it bumps to a 1st.

    Cue the dump threads, 10 posts in 6 years comments. But bottom line is the Revis situation is a mess and we need to maximize the return. A 2nd round pick in 2013 for Revis would be a big mistake.
    When a player is traded the proration becomes due right then- the day of the trade, not the following off season. For the jets to Trade Revis during the season they will need to be 10 mill under the cap. whatyou laid out is imposssible.

    Revis can only be traded during July when he is working out without restraint. and before the draft picks are signed. At this point in time the jets don't have enough cap room to sign the rookies and trade Revis.

  5. #5
    10 posts in 6 years

  6. #6
    I was basing the cap implications on an in-season Revis trade from this site: http://www.nyjetscap.com/2013_Articl...-timeline.html

    It looks like the Jets need $13 million in cap room if they trade him now. I read this as the Jets cap hit would be $6 million + prorated salary if traded in-season. The downside is a big hit in 2014. Conversely, if traded now, big hit on 2013 cap but no hit in 2014.

  7. #7
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    The last paragraph was definitely my favorite

  8. #8
    Most in season trades just don't happen because it takes so long for the player to learn the team's offense or defense. With a corner like Revis, its not an issue... its innate, instinct. Cover this guy, cover that guy. Learning the coaching signals, or playbook etc, isnt a big deal for a guy like him. He gets traded on Saturday, blankets their main receiver on Sunday, shutting him down completely... allowing the entire REST of the defense to adjust to the fact that they now HAVE Revis covering the biggest threat on the field, and can cheat, rush a safety, whatever.

    Someone remind me why Woody isnt paying this guy?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    When a player is traded the proration becomes due right then- the day of the trade, not the following off season. For the jets to Trade Revis during the season they will need to be 10 mill under the cap. whatyou laid out is imposssible.

    Revis can only be traded during July when he is working out without restraint. and before the draft picks are signed. At this point in time the jets don't have enough cap room to sign the rookies and trade Revis.
    Incorrect - after June 1st it would be over 2 years

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by K-Met57 View Post
    10 posts in 6 years
    And?

  11. #11
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    because NO CB is worth what he is asking for...and this team has other needs.




    Quote Originally Posted by MadCroatian View Post
    Most in season trades just don't happen because it takes so long for the player to learn the team's offense or defense. With a corner like Revis, its not an issue... its innate, instinct. Cover this guy, cover that guy. Learning the coaching signals, or playbook etc, isnt a big deal for a guy like him. He gets traded on Saturday, blankets their main receiver on Sunday, shutting him down completely... allowing the entire REST of the defense to adjust to the fact that they now HAVE Revis covering the biggest threat on the field, and can cheat, rush a safety, whatever.

    Someone remind me why Woody isnt paying this guy?

  12. #12

    cj spiller

    i still think would should try trade for cj spiller and the 8th

  13. #13
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    if buffalo calls up and offers spiller and the eighth overall selection for revis that would be tough to say no.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by nutty27 View Post
    Obviously the Jets don't like the Bucs or any other offer right now or else Revis would have been shipped before the bonus today. I don't see any offer significantly changing before Revis proves he is healthy. Idzik should keep him on the roster to start the season and pay him his $3 million in bonuses. Once the season starts, Revis' salary cap number for the 2013 season for a trading partner is the prorated portion of $3 million.

    The gamble is Revis will show he is back to being a top corner within the first few weeks of the season and a contender will either lose a couple of early games, suffer an injury, etc. If healthy, the same teams previously mentioned (49ers, Broncos, Bucs, Falcons, etc) will have the need, proof of health and relatively modest salary cap number to deal with. At this point, a 1st round pick in 2014 and a conditional pick (3rd which converts to 2 or 1 if he signs with acquiring team) can be had in my opinion. If Revis is not healthy, we risk losing him for nothing (worst case scenario) but his leverage as a FA is also drastically reduced.

    This route will lead to a $9 million cap charge for the Jets in 2014 which sucks but cutting Sanchez, Holmes and Harris will save about $20 million in 2014.

    I think the 49ers would be the team to watch. I think they take a Patriots approach to this year's draft by trading some of their picks for 2014 picks. It's very easy to see how they can add an additional 1st round and maybe 2nd or 3rd round pick for 2014. How about a week 4 trade of Revis to SF for one of the 49ers 1st round picks in 2014 plus a conditional 3rd. If the 49ers make the Super Bowl, it bumps to a 2nd. If Revis re-signs, it bumps to a 1st.

    Cue the dump threads, 10 posts in 6 years comments. But bottom line is the Revis situation is a mess and we need to maximize the return. A 2nd round pick in 2013 for Revis would be a big mistake.
    The Revis situation will not last nearly as long as when the regular season games begin in 2013. It will done before then. As soon as training camp begins and Revis is in uniform and running and cutting the sound you will be hearing is his trade value soaring.

    And the idea that it will be too late at that point to trade him is absurd. A prospective team will not need a lot of cap room (Revis' agent will work out a deal that makes the cap hit in 2013 easy to take) and any draft compensation will not be felt until the following year.

    In July and August one of the most dominant players in the sport will prove himself healthy. He will be cap friendly in 2013 and will cost teams nothing in 2013. And the Jets will get a nice haul for a player that will be 30 years old by the time they would be contending again.

  15. #15
    Taking a $9 million cap hit in 2014 for one more year of Revis is idiotic. I cannot see the Jets doing that.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by nutty27 View Post
    Obviously the Jets don't like the Bucs or any other offer right now or else Revis would have been shipped before the bonus today. I don't see any offer significantly changing before Revis proves he is healthy. Idzik should keep him on the roster to start the season and pay him his $3 million in bonuses. Once the season starts, Revis' salary cap number for the 2013 season for a trading partner is the prorated portion of $3 million.

    The gamble is Revis will show he is back to being a top corner within the first few weeks of the season and a contender will either lose a couple of early games, suffer an injury, etc. If healthy, the same teams previously mentioned (49ers, Broncos, Bucs, Falcons, etc) will have the need, proof of health and relatively modest salary cap number to deal with. At this point, a 1st round pick in 2014 and a conditional pick (3rd which converts to 2 or 1 if he signs with acquiring team) can be had in my opinion. If Revis is not healthy, we risk losing him for nothing (worst case scenario) but his leverage as a FA is also drastically reduced.

    This route will lead to a $9 million cap charge for the Jets in 2014 which sucks but cutting Sanchez, Holmes and Harris will save about $20 million in 2014.

    I think the 49ers would be the team to watch. I think they take a Patriots approach to this year's draft by trading some of their picks for 2014 picks. It's very easy to see how they can add an additional 1st round and maybe 2nd or 3rd round pick for 2014. How about a week 4 trade of Revis to SF for one of the 49ers 1st round picks in 2014 plus a conditional 3rd. If the 49ers make the Super Bowl, it bumps to a 2nd. If Revis re-signs, it bumps to a 1st.

    Cue the dump threads, 10 posts in 6 years comments. But bottom line is the Revis situation is a mess and we need to maximize the return. A 2nd round pick in 2013 for Revis would be a big mistake.
    The more I see the more I think Cromartie is going not Revis. Not this year, but next. Revis will be re-signed this year.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnysd View Post
    Taking a $9 million cap hit in 2014 for one more year of Revis is idiotic. I cannot see the Jets doing that.
    We're taking an $8.5m hit his year for one more year of Sanchez ...

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by nutty27 View Post
    This route will lead to a $9 million cap charge for the Jets in 2014 which sucks but cutting Sanchez, Holmes and Harris will save about $20 million in 2014.
    I'm fine with dumping Sanchez; Holmes if he doesn't pick up in 2013; but cutting Harris is questionable at best - he'll be in the back end of his contract which, while still a lot, is not astronomical, and if the D can sort itself out he can still be a player.

    Remember, if we cut him we have to sign someone to replace him, and that someone could easily cost just as much as keeping him. $5m in free agency will not necessarily get you an upgrade.

  19. #19
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    I would consider that a win win for the Jets....far too many people are making this more bleak than it really is.....I LOVE the fact that the Jets are waiting for the best deal....if it goes on until the 2013 season and its shown that Revis is fully healthy, then deal him if an agreement cannot be reached with the Jets. Too many people have this DO IT NOW mentality with everything including free agency.....I like the patient and rational approach.


    Quote Originally Posted by intelligentjetsfan View Post
    The Revis situation will not last nearly as long as when the regular season games begin in 2013. It will done before then. As soon as training camp begins and Revis is in uniform and running and cutting the sound you will be hearing is his trade value soaring.

    And the idea that it will be too late at that point to trade him is absurd. A prospective team will not need a lot of cap room (Revis' agent will work out a deal that makes the cap hit in 2013 easy to take) and any draft compensation will not be felt until the following year.

    In July and August one of the most dominant players in the sport will prove himself healthy. He will be cap friendly in 2013 and will cost teams nothing in 2013. And the Jets will get a nice haul for a player that will be 30 years old by the time they would be contending again.

  20. #20
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    I'm not sure why so many are all of a sudden down on Harris after a sub par year.



    Quote Originally Posted by JamesR View Post
    I'm fine with dumping Sanchez; Holmes if he doesn't pick up in 2013; but cutting Harris is questionable at best - he'll be in the back end of his contract which, while still a lot, is not astronomical, and if the D can sort itself out he can still be a player.

    Remember, if we cut him we have to sign someone to replace him, and that someone could easily cost just as much as keeping him. $5m in free agency will not necessarily get you an upgrade.

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