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Thread: Paradis' first mock of 2013

  1. #21
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    Still think we go with Jones after he ran a 40 time of an Offensive Lineman?

  2. #22
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    The combine matters - no way Jones goes in top 10 IMHO.

    Why the hate on Mingo?

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by David Harris View Post
    The combine matters - no way Jones goes in top 10 IMHO.

    Why the hate on Mingo?
    Hate? I don't hate him, in fact I have him getting selected in the first round. Right where I think his value is at.


    It's funny that you should ask about Mingo, a player whose game film doesn't light the world on fire yet, you snub Jones who put on clinic as a pass rusher.

    That tells me you're the kind of guy who places too much on combine-like workouts. Joe Haden & Gholston are my case studies for that argument.
    Last edited by Paradis; 03-24-2013 at 07:10 PM.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradis View Post
    Hate? I don't hate him, in fact I have him getting selected in the first round. Right where I think his value is at.


    It's funny that you should ask about Mingo, a player whose game film doesn't light the world on fire (at all really) yet, you snub Jones who put on clinic as a pass rusher.

    That tells me you're the kind of guy who places too much on combine-like workouts. Joe Haden & Gholston are my case studies for that argument.
    Don't platitude me Dise, "you're the kind of guy" - we all want Jones' production with Mingo or Jordan's numbers but that guy isn't in this draft and if he was he'd be Von Miller, drafted #2 overall and we wouldn't have a shot at him.

    Regarding Jones, Charlie Casserly - who gets all world respect for drafting Mario over Reggie, said it best when talking about Jones, I'll paraphrase:

    "I love his college production but I have never seen another guy with his measurables be super-successful in the NFL. Where is a comparison. He's not big 6'2" at 245 and runs a 5.0 forty. Show me that guy in the NFL. There is nobody lighting it up with those numbers. Terrell Suggs was 260."

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by David Harris View Post
    Don't platitude me Dise, "you're the kind of guy" - we all want Jones' production with Mingo or Jordan's numbers but that guy isn't in this draft and if he was he'd be Von Miller, drafted #2 overall and we wouldn't have a shot at him.

    Regarding Jones, Charlie Casserly - who gets all world respect for drafting Mario over Reggie, said it best when talking about Jones, I'll paraphrase:

    "I love his college production but I have never seen another guy with his measurables be super-successful in the NFL. Where is a comparison. He's not big 6'2" at 245 and runs a 5.0 forty. Show me that guy in the NFL. There is nobody lighting it up with those numbers. Terrell Suggs was 260."
    Casserly is borderline senile these days. His claim to fame is Mario. HOU actually got good when he left. Spare me the NFL ex-GM diatribes. As you put it - if he was good at what he did, he's still be employed.

    i heard the same crap about Joe Haden after his slow time. It's garbage. People know what they're getting with him... and no he's not the #2 overall player, and that's why we're getting him at 9.
    Last edited by Paradis; 03-24-2013 at 08:55 PM.

  6. #26
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    Mingo and Jones are far apart in terms of 40 yard times and proven passrushing ability and impact. Mingo is the track star and Jones is the star football player.

    Select Mingo if you want someone who runs fast, or Jones if you desire someone who can kill the qb consistently. Sure you'd like him to have a faster 40 but since when did olb's run 40 yards in straightlines during an actual game?? WR's certainly and RB's, perhaps TE's too in this age.

    I would argue that Jets biggest need is for an OLB passrusher who can kill the qb in one on one matchups.

  7. #27
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    I hear the argument and I'm certainly not "banging my shoe on the table" for Mingo, there's a lack of production there - it is concerning...but the larger point is that Jones does not go top 10 and probably not top 15 based purely on his numbers.

    If the real argument is what is realistic, i.e. what the teams will do, rather than our personal preferences then draft history clearly shows that teams WILL reach more for measurables than for production - (you're example of Vernon, Matt Jones and JPP also come to mind), strengthening the argument that a guy like Mingo gets moved up while a guy like Jones gets moved down.

    If you're so hot on Jones then why are you so cold on Damontre Moore? If workouts are overrated why does Moore and his 12.5 sacks and countless tackles for loss fall to Green Bay in your mock? He was Pauline's #2 overall player at season's end.

    And how dare you insult Charlie Casserly.

  8. #28
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    Tony's most recent rankings......just sayin.....they changed a lot after workouts, because that's what teams do. Based on his assessment Jones is still a top 10 player, Mingo is #3 now - so we're all wrong and all right according to this.
    http://www.draftinsider.net/


    Rank Rnd Name Pos Year
    1 1st Luke Joeckel
    Texas A&M T 3Jr
    2 1st Star Lotulelei
    Utah DT 5Sr
    3 1st Barkevious Mingo
    LSU OLB 4Jr
    4 1st Dion Jordan
    Oregon OLB 5Sr
    5 1st DeMarcus Milliner
    Alabama CB 3Jr
    6 1st Eric Fisher
    Central Michigan T 4Sr
    7 1st Jarvis Jones
    Georgia OLB 4Jr
    8 1st Shariff Floyd
    Florida DT 3Jr
    9 1st Chance Warmack
    Alabama G 5Sr
    10 1st Damontre Moore
    Texas A&M OLB 3Jr
    11 1st Bjoern Werner
    Florida State DE 3Jr
    12 1st Ezekiel Ansah
    BYU DE 5Sr
    13 1st Jonathan Cooper
    North Carolina G 5Sr
    14 1st Cordarrelle Patterson
    Tennessee WR 3Jr
    15 1st Sheldon Richardson
    Missouri DT 4Jr
    16 1st Lane Johnson
    Oklahoma T 5Sr
    17 1st Kenny Vaccaro
    Texas S 4Sr
    18 1st Tyler Eifert
    Notre Dame TE 4Jr
    19 1st Geno Smith
    West Virginia QB 4Sr
    20 1st Keenan Allen
    California WR 3Jr
    21 1st Alexander Ogletree
    Georgia ILB 3Jr
    22 1st Tavon Austin
    West Virginia WR 4Sr
    23 1-2 Xavier Rhodes
    Florida State CB 4Jr
    24 1st Matt Barkley
    USC QB 4Sr
    25 1st Jesse Williams
    Alabama DT 4Sr

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by David Harris View Post
    If you're so hot on Jones then why are you so cold on Damontre Moore? If workouts are overrated why does Moore and his 12.5 sacks and countless tackles for loss fall to Green Bay in your mock? He was Pauline's #2 overall player at season's end.

    And how dare you insult Charlie Casserly.
    I still like Moore. I feel better about him than Jordan, Ansah, Mingo, etc because I know he can play the position. I know he can be productive. ...His approach to the most important offseason of his life though, does drive him down in my books though. Very disappointing. If we took him in the teens via a trade or something, I'd be OK with that. Moore and Jordan are the only two OLBs i feel comfortable spending a 1st round pick on.

    Casserly has become something of a TV character now with his old-man routine. I'm waiting for the day he falls asleep on set.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradis View Post
    Ya, I'm just not a fan Ertz. Don't think he'll develop into anything special.

    Eifert was in consideration @13, and I flirted with Escobar, but at pick 40... felt like Hunt + Reed better value.
    I don't think there's a chance Hunt is drafted by the Jets. With DE as one of the strengths of the team, and so many holes, they're probably going to go with something else there, unless someone falls that's available.

    You said you're not a fan of Ertz, and I'm the opposite. If you watched Stanford's play this year, he was the entire deep threat of the team. He can do everything, block, catch, run after the catch, etc. Runs good routes. He needs a QB though, like every other WR/TE/RB on the team. I'd like for them to take him with the #2.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by David Harris View Post
    Don't platitude me Dise, "you're the kind of guy" - we all want Jones' production with Mingo or Jordan's numbers but that guy isn't in this draft and if he was he'd be Von Miller, drafted #2 overall and we wouldn't have a shot at him.

    Regarding Jones, Charlie Casserly - who gets all world respect for drafting Mario over Reggie, said it best when talking about Jones, I'll paraphrase:

    "I love his college production but I have never seen another guy with his measurables be super-successful in the NFL. Where is a comparison. He's not big 6'2" at 245 and runs a 5.0 forty. Show me that guy in the NFL. There is nobody lighting it up with those numbers. Terrell Suggs was 260."

    Ted Sundquist the other day said he wouldn't draft Jones, with the questions regarding stenosis and his poor workouts. Not only that, but when I watch him he just doesn't impress me as much as his stats are... some think hes going to be a great pass rusher, but I just don't see it. Hes not that fast on the field to get right past the OT, and hes pretty small to do much else. I don't see the explosiveness of other small pass rushers like Clay Matthews and Von Miller. A lot of times it seems like he gets stonewalled by guys if he can't run around them and a lot of sacks were either untouched blitzes or coverage sacks. I just watched him vs South Carolina and he was a nonfactor all game, was struggling getting by any OT and pretty much had zero pressure on the QB. His one sack was a coverage sack, the QB was scanning the field for like 5-6 seconds and then started running outside where Jones got him.

    I don't see the upside and I don't think he'll be a great pass rusher in the NFL and who knows about the stenosis problem...
    Last edited by k.Rhodes25; 03-24-2013 at 11:44 PM.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by k.Rhodes25 View Post
    Ted Sundquist the other day said he wouldn't draft Jones, with the questions regarding stenosis and his poor workouts. Not only that, but when I watch him he just doesn't impress me as much as his stats are... some thing hes going to be a great pass rusher, but I just don't see it. Hes not that fast on the field to get right past the OT, and hes pretty small to do much else. I don't see the explosiveness of other small pass rushers like Clay Matthews and Von Miller. A lot of times it seems like he gets stonewalled by guys if he can't run around them and a lot of sacks were either untouched blitzes or coverage sacks. I just watched him vs South Carolina and he was a nonfactor all game, was struggling getting by any OT and pretty much had zero pressure on the QB. His one sack was a coverage sack, the QB was scanning the field for like 5-6 seconds and then started running outside where Jones got him.

    I don't see the upside and I don't think he'll be a great pass rusher in the NFL and who knows about the stenosis problem...
    Good post. He's not big, he's not athletic. He's a football player. But to be dominant in the NFL you have to have the physical tools.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradis View Post
    This mock is done with some of my preferences in mind, but also based on where talent meets the picks.

    KC – Joekel OT
    JAX – Ansah DE
    OAK – Floyd DT
    PHI – Fisher OT
    DET – L. Johnson OT
    CLE – D. Milliner CB
    ARZ - Jordan DE
    BUF – Smith QB
    NYJ – J. Jones OLB
    TEN – C. Warmack OG
    SD – A. Ogletree ILB
    MIA – D. Trufant CB
    TB – X. Rodes CB ....(If NYJ = J. Cooper OG)
    CAR – S. Lutolutoto DT
    NOS – T. Austin WR
    STL – C. Patterson
    PIT – T. Eifert TE
    DAL – K. Vaccaro S
    NYG - T. Carradine
    CHI – J. Cooper OG
    CIN – B. Werner DE
    STL – M. Elam S
    MIN – S. Richardson
    IND – D. Hopkins WR
    GB – D. Moore DE
    HOU – K. Allen WR
    DEN – J. Hankins DT
    NE – M. Watson OT
    ATL – B. Mingo DE
    SF – J. Banks CB
    BAL – K. Minter


    Rest of the Jets draft (under the pretense that we traded and took jones & Cooper)

    2nd - Margus Hunt DE
    3rd – J. Reed TE
    4th – TJ McDonald FS
    5th – M. Lattimore RB
    6th - T. Sinkfield WR
    7th - M. Hughes DT



    Final haul;
    3 front seven
    1 O-line
    1 Secondary
    3 Offensive players
    Pretty much hate it, though I appreciate the time you took to do it, not personal. I just don't really like any of the pics to be honest. Seems like you are very very biased for line and defense and it shows in the rest of the first round mock for other teams as well.

    No way do I pick a questionable pass rusher in Jones over Warmack. Tavon Austin is ideally suited for MM's offense and that would be a much stronger pick here, probably my 2nd choice behind Warmack. (Holmes, Hill, Austin, Kerley and Edwards would be a huge jump from last years WR)

    Desmond Trufant or Xavier Rhodes would be better defensive choices here than Jones if we lose Revis which should happen before the draft. Even Star would be a better pick here than Jones if he is healthy to make a super unit at DL, but I would prefer offense. I don't want Cordarelle Patterson here I think we need to let Hill bloom, which he will.

    We don't need another DE in round 2, I would prefer Nassib or EJ Manuel here, possibly Ertz to replace Keller.

    I like your 3rd rounder, but I think Christine Michael might be a better choice here.

    I don't love taking a chance on Lattimore. I would take Renfree anywhere from round 5 on, even if we pick another QB. He has a shot especially in MMs system. We need to draft OL in the middle to late rounds as well

    I think the Jets need playmakers and offensive players. Your draft seems to be very risky and heavily skewed towards a defensive mindset. The Jets should take 5 or 6 offensive players at least in this draft to be honest.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnysd View Post
    Pretty much hate it, though I appreciate the time you took to do it, not personal. I just don't really like any of the pics to be honest. Seems like you are very very biased for line and defense and it shows in the rest of the first round mock for other teams as well.

    No way do I pick a questionable pass rusher in Jones over Warmack. Tavon Austin is ideally suited for MM's offense and that would be a much stronger pick here, probably my 2nd choice behind Warmack. (Holmes, Hill, Austin, Kerley and Edwards would be a huge jump from last years WR)

    Desmond Trufant or Xavier Rhodes would be better defensive choices here than Jones if we lose Revis which should happen before the draft. Even Star would be a better pick here than Jones if he is healthy to make a super unit at DL, but I would prefer offense. I don't want Cordarelle Patterson here I think we need to let Hill bloom, which he will.

    We don't need another DE in round 2, I would prefer Nassib or EJ Manuel here, possibly Ertz to replace Keller.

    I like your 3rd rounder, but I think Christine Michael might be a better choice here.

    I don't love taking a chance on Lattimore. I would take Renfree anywhere from round 5 on, even if we pick another QB. He has a shot especially in MMs system. We need to draft OL in the middle to late rounds as well

    I think the Jets need playmakers and offensive players. Your draft seems to be very risky and heavily skewed towards a defensive mindset. The Jets should take 5 or 6 offensive players at least in this draft to be honest.
    Well I appreciate the honestly. Sounds like it's an old fashioned case of different schools of thought. I don't like taking Austin. I think he's become march's darling and that's a super reach. He's not percy harvin. He's 5'7 and 175 pounds. He's not going open up your offense unless your offense is NOS or NE and you have the personel to execute. It's a waste. A sexy pick sure, but a damn waste.

    So is drafting a corner with the pick we get for Revis. I have no interest in trading Revis for Rhodes. That's stupid. That's essentially what you're suggesting. Our secondary played fairly well without him. It wasn't like Cro was getting burned.

    This "we have to draft offensive players" mentally is where you lose me. "have to" anything is no good. ....Look at which players we released/cut this year. Last time i checked, we lost two OLBs, a DT, a DE, two Safeties, an ILB.. and yes, two Guards and TE. ...and I HATE the idea of wasting a pick on Manuel or Nassib to ride the pine.

    So, I'm not saying it needs to be Jones. I am saying it needs NOT to be Austin though. Or a handful of scattered mid-tier talented RBs and QBs either. None of that will change the dynamic of this team. Jones/Warmack/Eifert are my faves in round 1 who'll actually make a difference. Actually.

    ***

    .... side not - let's examine where you're flat out wrong. Too many linemen? No. I'm not biased, it's where the value is. I have 17 linemen in my draft. CONSIDERING that there's fck all for QBs who usually take up a few spots, it's right on par...

    2012 - 11 linemen
    2011 - 18 linemen
    2010 - 16 linemen
    2008 - 15 linemen
    Last edited by Paradis; 03-25-2013 at 11:25 AM.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradis View Post
    Well I appreciate the honestly. Sounds like it's an old fashioned case of different schools of thought. I don't like taking Austin. I think he's become march's darling and that's a super reach. He's not percy harvin. He's 5'7 and 175 pounds. He's not going open up your offense unless your offense is NOS or NE and you have the personel to execute. It's a waste. A sexy pick sure, but a damn waste.

    So is drafting a corner with the pick we get for Revis. I have no interest in trading Revis for Rhodes. That's stupid. That's essentially what you're suggesting. Our secondary played fairly well without him. It wasn't like Cro was getting burned.

    This "we have to draft offensive players" is where i'm not just not on. Do me a favor and have a look at which players we had to cut and release this offseason. Tell me how many of them were the O. TE and some OGs... which i addressed. I HATE the idea of wasting a pick on Manuel or Nassib to ride the pine.

    So, I'm not saying it needs to be Jones. I am saying it needs NOT to be Austin though. Or a handful of scattered mid-tier talented RBs and QBs either. None of that will change the dynamic of this team. Jones/Warmack/Eifert are my faves in round 1 who'll actually make a difference. Actually.

    ***

    .... side not - let's examine where you're flat out wrong. Too many linemen? No. I'm not biased, it's where the value is. I have 17 linemen in my draft. CONSIDERING that there's fck all for QBs who usually take up a few spots, it's right on par...

    2012 - 11 linemen
    2011 - 18 linemen
    2010 - 16 linemen
    2008 - 15 linemen
    Point made on lineman but maybe a better way of saying it is that my perception is you are biased against taking playmakers high in the draft.

    Last year, TA would have been a horrible pick, but he is perfect for MMs system. Remember he did have the performance on the field too before blowing it up in the combine.

    In terms of QB, we have to get one. I'd rather take a shot on Nassib/Manuel and Renfree and potentially bust on those picks than not try and find the franchise QB at all and start Sanchez again or some veteran retread. All of the QBs have perceived issues but each of them has the potential to be extremely good depending on their work ethic, how they adapt and how they are developed. They system we have now is probably the most QB friendly in the NFL. I just think you have to try. Nassib and Manuel are very highly rated by some scouts. Gil Brandt LOVES Renfree. So there is a chance to get the franchise guy in this draft.

    In terms of corner, there is almost no scenario where Revis is a Jet in 2014. So CB does become a need and equating it with replacing Revis is just self destructive.
    Last edited by johnnysd; 03-25-2013 at 11:52 AM.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnysd View Post

    Last year, TA would have been a horrible pick, but he is perfect for MMs system. Remember he did have the performance on the field too before blowing it up in the combine.

    In terms of QB, we have to get one. I'd rather take a shot on Nassib/Manuel and Renfree and potentially bust on those picks than not try and find the franchise QB at all and start Sanchez again or some veteran retread. All of the QBs have perceived issues but each of them has the potential to be extremely good depending on their work ethic, how they adapt and how they are developed. They system we have now is probably the most QB friendly in the NFL. I just think you have to try. Nassib and M
    I'm so not on the page with you here. Trying doesn't mean buying walmart jeans cause it's the closest store and you need a pair of slacks. We did try. We brought in Garrard, we're working out a bunch of as$holes. They're gonna give Sanchez another long leash to start the season... it just makes no sense to bring in a developmental guy right now when next year we could be on the hunt for a franchise QB. A team like PIT, DEN, NOS, HOU - These are the teams that can afford to groom a benchwarmer for life like Manuel.


    Where does Tavon play? the slot? I'm pretty happy with Kerley in the slot. In fact, its the only guy i was pretty happy with last year. You gonna play him at flanker? No... split end? We need to invest some time in Hill out there. besides, TA's has short arms, and a limited vertical.. he's not going to be this safety shredding deep threat. He's not Mike Wallace, or Harvin, or Smith, etc etc. He's Dexter McCluster's size. He's ceiling is Welker... which isn't bad, but I'm not banking a #9 on that.

    I honestly like his counterpart - Bailey - better for total production at the NFL level.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradis View Post
    I'm so not on the page with you here. Trying doesn't mean buying walmart jeans cause it's the closest store and you need a pair of slacks. We did try. We brought in Garrard, we're working out a bunch of as$holes. They're gonna give Sanchez another long leash to start the season... it just makes no sense to bring in a developmental guy right now when next year we could be on the hunt for a franchise QB. A team like PIT, DEN, NOS, HOU - These are the teams that can afford to groom a benchwarmer for life like Manuel.


    Where does Tavon play? the slot? I'm pretty happy with Kerley in the slot. In fact, its the only guy i was pretty happy with last year. You gonna play him at flanker? No... split end? We need to invest some time in Hill out there. besides, TA's has short arms, and a limited vertical.. he's not going to be this safety shredding deep threat. He's not Mike Wallace, or Harvin, or Smith, etc etc. He's Dexter McCluster's size. He's ceiling is Welker... which isn't bad, but I'm not banking a #9 on that.

    I honestly like his counterpart - Bailey - better for total production at the NFL level.
    +1 on everything here. Jets need sure bets this year, not reaches or players who are raw and/or have high "upside".

    QB should wait until next season. No reason to commit to another player who isn't a blue chip QB prospect, especially when the Jets need so much else that this draft is loaded with.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by k.Rhodes25 View Post
    I don't see the upside and I don't think he'll be a great pass rusher in the NFL and who knows about the stenosis problem...
    How can you ignore TWO seasons of dominance in the SEC. You simply can't ignore his numbers that blow away the other top candidates as far as sacks and tackle for loss.

  19. #39
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    For all those wanting to wait on the 2014 draft for the Jets to take a QB. What happens if this teams manages to win 6-8 games in 2013 ?
    What happens if Rex gets his defense to play the way he thinks they can and this team wins those games ?

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinstar View Post
    For all those wanting to wait on the 2014 draft for the Jets to take a QB. What happens if this teams manages to win 6-8 games in 2013 ?
    What happens if Rex gets his defense to play the way he thinks they can and this team wins those games ?
    The Jets are not going to be as bad as people think and I can for sure see them winning 6-8. What do we do? We draft a qb where ever we are if the value is there and the QB is a legit prospect. Or we try to move up top get a guy if necessary. Or we scan other teams rosters and trade for a guy.

    It all comes down to how you feel about the QB's in this years draft. If you like them a lot you can justify picking one this year. However if you do not like them a lot you are causing more problems than you are solving.

    Let's say we draft Nassib in the 2nd round this year because 'we need a QB'

    You pass up on another quality player to draft him.
    You pass up on other Qb's next year and perhaps the year after because you are developing him. You simply can't tell if the guy is good or a bum in one or two years.

    Some of us feel that if you draft some of these dudes in the 2nd round you are getting the next ponder, gabbert, locker. You can say, hey! those guys were all first rounders! but they are still of ponder, gabbert, locker quality.

    Like any other position, don't force it, make QB a priority but do not artificially up the quality of the prospects just because we have a need.

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