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Thread: The Depressed Cornerback Market and Darrelle Revis

  1. #1

    The Depressed Cornerback Market and Darrelle Revis

    Not sure if this was posted, but Jason from NYJetscap.com (now overthecap.com) wrote a interesting article on how the possibilities that Revis remains a Jet keep getting better thanks to the current conerback market correction.


    http://overthecap.com/the-depressed-...arrelle-revis/

    So what exactly is going on right now with the Jets and Darrelle Revis? It is clear that the Jets were at one point shopping him. There were far too many stories from too many sources for it to not be true. The other day it was reported by, I believe, Peter King that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are willing to give up a 1st and 2nd round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft for Revis. Manish Mehta of the NY Daily News followed up with a report that the Buccaneers were willing to pay Revis $12-13 million a year. Last week the Jets seemed to have a soft deadline to trade Revis due to a $1 million dollar roster bonus that he earned at 4PM on March 17th. The day came and went and the Jets are now on the hook for $1 million in both cash and cap to a player who they are supposedly trading. Now word is that teams arenít even sure if the Jets are really looking to move him. Weird isnít it?
    Old readers of mine from nyjetscap.com know my feelings on Revis and his relationship with the team. For new readers I donít think there is any love lost between the organization and Revis. Revis has held them up twice now and was prepared to do it a third time last season before he realized that the Jets held all the contractual power in the world over him and he had no choice but to play on his current contract. When it was floated out there, even while injured, that Revis was again looking to be the highest paid defensive player in the NFL it more or less makes it a no brainer to trade him. The Jets were not a good team with Revis and allocating that kind of money to him is pointless given the teams situation.


    However all of the posturing by Revis was based on an assumption that teams were willing to pay an incredible amount of money for his services. Now paying the type of money Revis was looking for is fools gold for any corner, even one as great as Revis, but it would not stun me that a team would pay it. I mean the Raiders did it for Asomugha and the Bills did it last year for Mario Williams one of the most overrated pass rushers in the league. This year players lined up looking for big money in free agency but the market changed and nobody got the money.
    This time last season the NFL cornerback market had 6 players with an APY over $10 million a season. 11 players were over $9 million and 17 players made over $8 million. The new market is 4 over $10 million, 7 over $9 million, and 11 over $8 million. Overall this is the new marketplace breakdown:

    It is not as if one can argue that this was a bad market for corners this season. At least two corners, Sean Smith and Aqib Talib, were considered franchise tag candidates this offseason. Smith ended up getting a 3 year deal worth $5.5 million a season and Talib settled for a 1 year contract at $5 million. Brent Grimes, coming off injury, is still waiting to sign a contract. The best deal of the offseason may have been signed by Kyle Arrington, a hybrid number 2/slot cover corner that received $7.5 million in cash in the first year of his contract, the 2nd highest of any corner this season.
    Comparing free agency last season with this one shows a startling picture of where the market is headed. Based on my own recollection (which may be off a bit) the biggest offseason deals signed in 2012, based on APY, were those of Brent Grimes, Brandon Carr, Cortland Finnegan, Ladarius Webb, and Stanford Routt. This years top 5 contracts are those of Cary Williams, Smith, Keenan Lewis, Chris Houston.

    It is a complete devaluation of the position in 2013. Teams just do not want to spend on it for a number of reasons ranging from the spread offense to the lack of a large number of dominant WR/QB combinations in the NFL. To think that will change next year is probably wrong. Right now you can get Chris Houston and Aqib Talib for less than it costs to get Revis alone. No matter how great Revis is from a cap standpoint he is a clear loser in this market.
    My gut instincts tell me that when the Jets were out in Indianapolis putting feelers out there for Revis and also surveying the market in the first real, even if off the record, negotiating sessions they had a good idea of where teams were headed with the salary cap and positional spending. They knew the cornerback market had a good chance to collapse and that there would be few teams willing to entertain the type of money offers Revis wants. If the Jets do not pull a trade with the Buccaneers, one of the few teams that would be willing to meet Revisí asking price, Revis is going to have to prove he is 100% healthy to get a decent payday. Even then if a team like the Bucs has a bad season they will likely not overspend for a Revis. That is a team that thinks they can compete, but another losing season and they will quickly change their outlook.
    With all of this in mind this may be a situation where the Jets realize there is an opportunity to keep Revis in New York. The most I felt, pre-injury, a team should pay for Revis is $11.25 million based on some crude stat analysis but understood his standing in the NFL and thought that could max it between $12 and 13 million. While that would be overpaying it would not be so egregious that it destroyed your team financially. Now in this new marketplace the Jets may be thinking that by rolling the dice they can get Revis for $11-$12 million a season. Not only does that keep Revis a Jet but it keeps the fans happy with a team that has a bleak outlook in 2013 and gives the Jets a marketing tool as they struggle to sell out the upper deck of the stadium.
    Financially the Jets can make this move if they need to. An interesting move that the Jets made a few weeks ago was the restructuring of CB Antonio Cromartieís contract. Most thought nothing of it at the time since the Jets needed cap relief and he was an obvious candidate. What struck me as odd, though, was that the Jets did not extend him. By extending Cromartie they could have brought his cap number even lower and not dealt with the near $15 million dollar cap figure he has in 2014. With the way the market was at worst they would have extended him under the same $8 million APY of his current contract.
    However had they extended him they were locking themselves into Cromartie as their future number 1. Releasing or trading him next season saves $9.5 million in cap room, more than enough to offset a Revis return. They would not have been able to release him if an extension was executed. So looking a bit deeper into that move may have been an indication that the Jets donít see the door as closed on Revis as we all believe.
    Now that doesnít not mean the Jets wont trade him. I think the issue here is they need something in this years draft to move him. Waiting until next year where positioning and draftees are a complete unknown is not a reasonable return. All along I have said they need a 2nd this season and a potential 1 next year. I think if the Bucs made that offer tomorrow the Jets will take it. But if they donít the Jets have a window now to get their corner under contract under their terms. The longer Revis waits the more chance there is that he gets re-injured or doesnít look the same. The way the market is going proving he is 100% doesnít mean $16 million anymore in free agency. It may not even mean $13 million. Unless the Jets are going to lowball him on an offer he can probably get almost as much now as he will after having a year like he had in 2010 or 2011. Is an extra $1 million a year worth that risk to him? The Jets might think its not.

  2. #2
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    This guy always used way too many words to express his thoughts on the Jets. Just stuff we've heard blah blah blah...

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Dupe View Post
    This guy always used way too many words to express his thoughts on the Jets. Just stuff we've heard blah blah blah...
    Because most people on this site don't know crap about the cap, so he explains everything in great detail. Not every post should be "the jets can afford to sign revis" and wait for comments. he goes into detail on how and why they may be signing him again.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by patman View Post
    Because most people on this site don't know crap about the cap, so he explains everything in great detail. Not every post should be "the jets can afford to sign revis" and wait for comments. he goes into detail on how and why they may be signing him again.

    lol, exactly.

    Dope doesn't know what he's talking about. Jason is the best and most reliable Jets cap guy out there.

    Too bad for Dope, it fits under the tl;dr criteria that exceeds his 79 IQ.

  5. #5
    Revis ain't getting $100 mil at 16 per yr clip. Jets can lock him up to an extension possibly during the season and that is the right move here.

  6. #6
    I will still be shocked if Revis is not traded.

  7. #7
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    In the end we'll keep him... no Johnny Football...

  8. #8
    I think this is good news. I've always hoped the Jets would resign him. Now, if they can actually get a deal done that is more in line with what fair market value is for a player of Revis' caliber? That's a win win for the both the team, Rex Ryan, and the fans.

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    The biggest thing I got out of that is that the NFL is finally realizing that CBs are overrated and/or overvalued. What good is it when the rules dictate that you can't play pass defense.

    You need a few pass rushers and a couple of ball hawks in the back end.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dupe View Post
    This guy always used way too many words to express his thoughts on the Jets. Just stuff we've heard blah blah blah...
    I know, who wants to read a whole bunch of words about the Jets on a Jets message board?

  11. #11
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    I would love to keep Revis if the money was right but lets be honest there are a ton of concerns. Is there any reason to believe that he would never hold out again? No, there isn't. Would he sign another contract with penalties for holding out after what just happened to him? I don't think he would.

    And then there is the ACL. Also tack on his relationship with the ownership.

    I just don't see how we end up keeping him.
    Last edited by DDNYjets; 03-28-2013 at 07:37 AM.

  12. #12
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    I don't see how they can give him $11m+/yr until they are 100% sure he is 100% healthy. Can you imagine giving him that kind of money and him then getting re-injured in the first game of the season? No way they should take a risk like that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by brady's a catcher View Post
    I know, who wants to read a whole bunch of words about the Jets on a Jets message board?
    No one reads long informative posts, but they will read 50,000 posts from trolls saying the same thing over again. No one here actually wants to be informed, or especially enlightened. They really just want to be right. The only chance you have of getting your point across would be to split it up into sound bytes, but it's still unlikely to have the desired effect.

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    I'm sorry. I love Jason, and read everything on his site religiously, but Revis is Revis. He is not going to take less than he wants. He'll play out the year, and then sit home in 2014 rather than take less than he feels he deserves. Same reason he argued with Sherman. There was no reason for that, except that he's a teenage girl. He is not going to be reasonable, or rational. It's not about the money really, it's what the dollar figure represents. Whatever the highest paid defensive players are paid is what he wants every year. That, and he wants his diamond tiara.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    No one reads long informative posts, but they will read 50,000 posts from trolls saying the same thing over again. No one here actually wants to be informed, or especially enlightened. They really just want to be right. The only chance you have of getting your point across would be to split it up into sound bytes, but it's still unlikely to have the desired effect.
    Just because one person made a ridiculous negative comment doesn't mean "no one" enjoyed it and read it thoroughly.

    The reality is there's a handful of obnoxious, intolerant, ignorant people on this board, the vocal minority, but most enjoy others opinions and simply reading and discussing the Jets.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    I'm sorry. I love Jason, and read everything on his site religiously, but Revis is Revis. He is not going to take less than he wants. He'll play out the year, and then sit home in 2014 rather than take less than he feels he deserves. Same reason he argued with Sherman. There was no reason for that, except that he's a teenage girl. He is not going to be reasonable, or rational. It's not about the money really, it's what the dollar figure represents. Whatever the highest paid defensive players are paid is what he wants every year. That, and he wants his diamond tiara.
    what if no one one wants to pay him what he wants? like Jaosn said, the market has shown what the price of a CB is and there are still many available out there

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Dupe View Post
    This guy always used way too many words to express his thoughts on the Jets. Just stuff we've heard blah blah blah...
    I know, who wants all those words without at least some cartoon figures?

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by sect313 View Post
    what if no one one wants to pay him what he wants? like Jaosn said, the market has shown what the price of a CB is and there are still many available out there
    Agreed, he's going to hold out for the best deal he can get (from the Jets or someone else) but he won't miss a season on principal.
    He's about making as much money as possible. If 10mm year is the best he can get, than he'll play for 10mm a year.

    (At least until he thinks he can get more, at which point he'll hold out)

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Green + White View Post
    In the end we'll keep him... no Johnny Football...
    If we want a guy badly enough in next year's draft, we can get him in other ways - Revis isn't our only ticket to a QB.

    Skins went and got RGIII because they wanted him badly enough. Jets can do the same - IF they choose to.

  20. #20
    Darrelle Revis will be traded or he will walk after the 2013 season. To suggest otherwise is a waste of time. Sorry.

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