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Thread: Yay unemployment is down!

  1. #1
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    Yay unemployment is down!

    Thank God for the quitters!

    "The unemployment rate declined to 7.6%, but this was due entirely to the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which declined by 20 bps to 63.3%, a new 30 year low."

    Payrolls Plunge To 88K, Biggest Miss Since December 2009, Participation Rate At New 30 Year Low


    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/05/2013 08:34 -0400





    So much for "open-ended QE driven recovery". Moments ago the March Non-farm payroll hit and it was a doozy, printing at 88K, below the lowest forecast of 100K, well below the expected number of 190K, and a tragedy compared to the February revised print of 268K (was 236K). This was the biggest miss to expectations since December 2009 and the worst print since June 2012. The unemployment rate declined to 7.6%, but this was due entirely to the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which declined by 20 bps to 63.3%, a new 30 year low.


    And now the time to come up with excuses is here.



    and its not just the US - Canada's employment collapsed the most since Jan 09...


    From the report:
    Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up in March (+88,000). Over the prior 12 months, employment growth had averaged 169,000 per month. In March, employment increased in professional and business services and in health care, while retail trade employment declined. (See table B-1.)
    Professional and business services added 51,000 jobs in March. Over the past 12 months, employment in this industry has grown by 533,000. Within professional and business services, accounting and bookkeeping services added 11,000 jobs over the month, and employment continued to trend up in temporary help services and in several other component industries.


    Job growth in health care continued in March, with a gain of 23,000, similar
    to the prior 12-month average. Within health care, employment increased
    by 15,000 in ambulatory health care services, such as home health care,
    and by 8,000 in hospitals.


    Construction employment continued to trend up in March (+18,000). Job growth in this industry picked up this past fall; since September, the industry has added 169,000 jobs. In March, employment continued to expand among specialty trade contractors (+23,000). Employment in specialty trade contractors has increased by 128,000 since September, with the gain about equally split between the residential and nonresidential components.


    Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in March (+13,000). Over the past year, the industry added 262,000 jobs.


    In March, retail trade employment declined by 24,000. The industry had added an average of 32,000 jobs per month over the prior 6 months. In March, job declines occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (-15,000), building material and garden supply stores (-10,000), and electronics and appliance stores (-6,000).


    Within government, U.S. Postal Service employment fell by 12,000 in March.
    Employment in other major industries, including mining, manufacturing,
    wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial
    activities, state government, and local government, showed little change
    over the month.


    The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours. The manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, and factoryovertime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)


    In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $23.82, changed little (+1 cent). Over the year, average hourly
    earnings have risen by 42 cents, or 1.8 percent. Average hourly earnings
    of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $20.03,
    changed little (-1 cent) in March. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)



    The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +119,000 to +148,000, and the change for February was revised from
    +236,000 to +268,000.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trades View Post
    Thank God for the quitters!

    "The unemployment rate declined to 7.6%, but this was due entirely to the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which declined by 20 bps to 63.3%, a new 30 year low."
    I suspect as the percentage of 65 to 85 year olds continues to grow as a percentage of the population this trend will continue.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winstonbiggs View Post
    I suspect as the percentage of 65 to 85 year olds continues to grow as a percentage of the population this trend will continue.
    Baby boomers and people getting out of the military. It's the govt's fault when tn
    The numbers are bad and it's the govt lying when the numbers are good, right?

  4. #4
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    Tyler Durden article for proof.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cr726 View Post
    Baby boomers and people getting out of the military. It's the govt's fault when tn
    The numbers are bad and it's the govt lying when the numbers are good, right?


    Baby boomers getting out? They've been out a LONG time except for a few 3-4 star generals.
    The U.S. population is growing by about 2Mill/year. Somebody better come up with jobs. 175k per month get to stay at this lousy level. And with the hidden costs of Obamacare being unveiled - watch out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by palmetto defender View Post
    Baby boomers getting out? They've been out a LONG time except for a few 3-4 star generals.
    The U.S. population is growing by about 2Mill/year. Somebody better come up with jobs. 175k per month get to stay at this lousy level. And with the hidden costs of Obamacare being unveiled - watch out.
    Baby Boomers AND people getting out of the military.

    Why do you hate America?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by palmetto defender View Post
    Baby boomers getting out? They've been out a LONG time except for a few 3-4 star generals.
    The U.S. population is growing by about 2Mill/year. Somebody better come up with jobs. 175k per month get to stay at this lousy level. And with the hidden costs of Obamacare being unveiled - watch out.
    The US birth rate is below the level needed to maintain the population. Most of the growth is coming from importing workers many of whom have a guaranteed job when they get here. The last census showed a huge increase in the population above 65 and particular higher in the above 80 group. We also have over 25% of the population that are under 21, many of whom have part time jobs or attend college full time.

    There are about 10,000 people a day who are reaching the age of 65 in the US.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winstonbiggs View Post
    The US birth rate is below the level needed to maintain the population. Most of the growth is coming from importing workers many of whom have a guaranteed job when they get here. The last census showed a huge increase in the population above 65 and particular higher in the above 80 group. We also have over 25% of the population that are under 21, many of whom have part time jobs or attend college full time.

    There are about 10,000 people a day who are reaching the age of 65 in the US.
    Shh, Palmetto is with the decision makers having a Arnie Palmy.

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    7.6%. So what is that in real unemployment? 12-13%??

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by DDNYjets View Post
    7.6%. So what is that in real unemployment? 12-13%??
    no, that's just for blacks. So it's OK.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Winstonbiggs View Post
    I suspect as the percentage of 65 to 85 year olds continues to grow as a percentage of the population this trend will continue.
    http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/12s0009.pdf

    insignificant according to these projections

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    Quote Originally Posted by cr726 View Post
    Baby Boomers AND people getting out of the military.

    Why do you hate America?
    They are out becasue they are too old. And the military has mandatory separation based on age. Exceptions - senior flag grade (3 & 4 stars).

    People leave the military before required in large part becasue the military is reducing force size and pays poorly. People go in to learn certain skills and earn benefits. Then move on like most people in our country.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Winstonbiggs View Post
    The US birth rate is below the level needed to maintain the population. Most of the growth is coming from importing workers many of whom have a guaranteed job when they get here. The last census showed a huge increase in the population above 65 and particular higher in the above 80 group. We also have over 25% of the population that are under 21, many of whom have part time jobs or attend college full time.

    There are about 10,000 people a day who are reaching the age of 65 in the US.

    I criticize you enough. Please don't make it even easier.
    Just go to your search site and look up U.S. population trends. You will see that births are higher than deaths by a good margin and then add in immigration. 2millioon a year increase . FACT.
    All age groups are increasing. Of course over 65s -the post WWII population is growing. But the largest birth rates came well after that group.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FF2® View Post
    no, that's just for blacks. So it's OK.


    No, real is around 12-13%. Blacks are around 20%. Black youths are WAY up there 25%+.

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    Quote Originally Posted by palmetto defender View Post
    I criticize you enough. Please don't make it even easier.
    Just go to your search site and look up U.S. population trends. You will see that births are higher than deaths by a good margin and then add in immigration. 2millioon a year increase . FACT.
    All age groups are increasing. Of course over 65s -the post WWII population is growing. But the largest birth rates came well after that group.
    I have no problem with your critic, it's facts that are your problem.

    The current birth rate is substantially below the population replacement rate. 1.93 per women is well below the 2.1 needed and it's still falling.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...387770718.html

    What do you think an imported worker is? That's what is sustaining our population growth.

    The older population is increasing faster than the younger population that is a declining birth rate trend. Guess what the older people who make up a bigger and bigger percentage of the population are going to die. They are also the least productive members of the society as they are resource hogs without producing very much. (No offense to you personally) Of course your smart investments are still productive as it will make capital available for those with ideas that still want to produce something. (Not many as most have lost their desire and ability to want to produce because of the welfare state they unlike you grew up in)
    Last edited by Winstonbiggs; 04-06-2013 at 03:33 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cr726 View Post
    Baby Boomers AND people getting out of the military.

    Why do you hate America?
    Food stamp nation. It plays right into liberal politicians hands...they get to play class warfare and Santa Claus at the same time. I am staying out of this forum for the most part bc there is no debating the Obama drones- not worth it. When the Fed stops easing, look out. This is a fugazy stock market run, and retail investors aren't even asking part in it for the most part.

    To claim baby boomers and the military shrinking. Are the main reasons people are fleeing the workforce in record numbers is the height of absurdity. Carry on

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tucker134 View Post
    Food stamp nation. It plays right into liberal politicians hands...they get to play class warfare and Santa Claus at the same time. I am staying out of this forum for the most part bc there is no debating the Obama drones- not worth it. When the Fed stops easing, look out. This is a fugazy stock market run, and retail investors aren't even asking part in it for the most part.

    To claim baby boomers and the military shrinking. Are the main reasons people are fleeing the workforce in record numbers is the height of absurdity. Carry on
    true or false the market has been kicking ass for the past few years?

    Ending 2 wars should help the job numbers?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Winstonbiggs View Post
    I have no problem with your critic, it's facts that are your problem.

    The current birth rate is substantially below the population replacement rate. 1.93 per women is well below the 2.1 needed and it's still falling.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...387770718.html

    What do you think an imported worker is? That's what is sustaining our population growth.

    The older population is increasing faster than the younger population that is a declining birth rate trend. Guess what the older people who make up a bigger and bigger percentage of the population are going to die. They are also the least productive members of the society as they are resource hogs without producing very much. (No offense to you personally) Of course your smart investments are still productive as it will make capital available for those with ideas that still want to produce something. (Not many as most have lost their desire and ability to want to produce because of the welfare state they unlike you grew up in)
    God help me. You actually make good efforts at issues.
    I always (unless I know) check data before I comment. The birth rate is above thye death rate. We have 315+ mill now. Forecast is 350m by 2050. Mostly birth over death. Some immigration also.
    There was another detailed post on here with actual charts which dispels your point.
    Now we can talk about use of resources - fine. I make a lot of money but have had no job for several years. I pay an enormous amount of taxes to the fed and state govs and invest a lot back into the economy. I have large bond holdings which benefit both municipalities or companies. I am NO drain on the gov at all. My medical is insignificant and I pay an exorbitant Medicare bill with no usage.
    BTW, how did I grow up in a welfare state. I was just of age when LBJ's nonsense programs went into effect. Of m,y entire family from parents to children, I am the only one who ever colleccted unemployment - for 3 weeks after I separated from the Army. The interviews etc took that long.
    WE contribute. Not a 1%er. I understand that takes $17Mill in assets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cr726 View Post
    true or false the market has been kicking ass for the past few years?

    Ending 2 wars should help the job numbers?


    Said before and will say again. The stock market is a gambling casino.
    Please check out the grossly infalted price earnigs ratios. Companies are not booming. There are some opportunities. But many are eh.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by palmetto defender View Post
    Said before and will say again. The stock market is a gambling casino.
    Please check out the grossly infalted price earnigs ratios. Companies are not booming. There are some opportunities. But many are eh.
    The stock market is more like horse racing, too many know things they should not.

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