I have a very strange feeling about the draft coming up based on listening to all the reports from the draftniks and rumors and stuff about the draft.
Despite the fact that the QB class "sucks", I am just starting to get the feeling that we may see 3-4 QBs go in the Top 10.
I know this goes against all traditional thinking, but I think there are some factors that come into play:
1. 3 of the Top 10 players are OT, and 5 of the Top 10 could be O-line. We are seeing a true softening in the LT market, and the last four SB champions were at best average at the position. LT is just not as critical a need anymore as it was in the past, so it does not have the same value in the draft as it has before
2. Picking a QB with a high first round pick is no longer a franchise killer if you miss. The contract is manageable, and makes the risk much more attractive to teams. No position is remotely close to QB. If you get a franchise QB you compete for a decade. Think of it this way. in relative importance a QB may be a 1.5, and a LT maybe a .8. If a QB has only a 50% chance to be a franchise QB he would still offer more value (expectancy) than a LT that has a 90% chance of being a pro-bowler. (.75 to .72)
3. Drafts are made up of runs. Once certain positions start to come off the board, teams start picking or moving up for that player earlier so as not to miss the need
4. There is a lot of talk and smoke about KC maybe going QB in the first round. For the reasons above it could make a lot of sense.
5. Jacksonville has no allegiance to Blaine Gabbert
6. It's a copycat league...see 49ers
So first round:
If KC goes QB, I could see a run starting on them immediately as teams think they will not be there by round 2. KC, JAX, Oakland and either Buffalo or Philly (maybe both) take QB in round 1 as well.
KC just gave a 2nd away for Alex Smith, about to trade Branden Albert to the Dolphins. So...you think they are going to go Geno at 1st overall?
Yes, whiffing on a qb in round 1 is no longer a terrible fate financially, but it still sets franchises back years. You have to give them a few years to develop and see what they can do before realizing its time to move on. No way has Geno shown enough to make a team that confident that he's a bonafide franchise qb.
Maybe I can see 2 go top 10. If Geno goes early, maybe someone panics and pulls the trigger on EJ or Nassib. Maybe. But it seems like with all the trades (Palmer, Flynn, Smith, etc.) that top 10 teams are covering their end and setting themselves up to trade back into late 1st if they like someone. If Geno isn't taken by the Bills, I can easily see no QBs going until late first.