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Thread: Pre-Draft Thoughts on Franchise Direction

  1. #1

    Pre-Draft Thoughts on Franchise Direction

    A few things I've been thinking.....

    1. I don't want to see the Jets draft Defense. Our Defense has been fine. Great? No. But Fine? Absolutely. Top 10 in yards Allowed and competative every single year, year in and year out, under Rex Ryan.

    But our offense has been, recently, so bad and unproductive (scoring) that I can't see us going Defense in the draft as smart. While no one argues that we don't need some pass rush (we do) and some help in the secondary now (we do), I have alot more faith that we can still be competative without those things than without really overhauling the Offense.

    2. We're so bad on offense, so thin, so unproductive, that it would seem we could draft almost anything and come out ahead. O-Line is weak outside Mangold and Furgeson. Quarterback is the worst in the NFL. Tight End has no one on our roster of NFL quality as a reciever. And Wide Reciever is very thin, with a cancer in Holmes, a #3 slot guy in Kerley and a who-knows-what in Hill in year 2.

    Clearly, the Offense needs exponentially more help to come to a level of competativeness than the defese does, even after the offseason changes thus far.

    3. We cannot see "fix it now" drafting from Idzik. Our draft must also be based on the long term, not a short term fix. Given that the offense needs almost a total overhaul of talent, it seems apaprent that this must be the focus both short and long term. The holes on Defense can be filled just as easily next offseason, while remaining reasonably competative in the now. The offense was uncompetative last year, will be again without majoy changes this year. Clearly this must be the priority.

    Draft Preferences should thus be:

    1. O-Line. Champions win on the backs of their running game and how well they protect whomever their quarterback is. Adding 1-2 top-tier O-linemen to Mangold and Brick is the kind of long-term thinking we should be hoping for, building the fundamental building block of future competativeness on offense.

    2. A legitimate pass-catching weapon. Be it a tall, strong AND fast multi-talented Widereciever, or a Gronk-like Tight End, the passing game is in dire need of an infusion of legitimate NFL starting-calibur talent. And no, a short "woulda been good ten years ago" tyle WR is not the answer here. Pick for the NFL we play in today, not teh NFL ofyears agao, and short scat-back style WR's are not the now.

    3. Quarterback. Yes, we all know the QB's in thisdraft are both risky and unworthy of the hype or instant-starter-status of previous drafts. But there is talent here that can be developed via a year or two of good coaching and sitting on the bench. Yes, this counterdicts my last item, since "start um' now" is the current way of things in the NFL, but on this count, the old way is still the best way IF you lack the abillity to get a now-capable starter in the draft. Picking a QB and starting his development now, rather than later, while cutting loose some of the detritus we have now at the position (Sanchez is doubtful, but Gerrard, Tebow and McElroy could all be easily dropped now) pays dividends in two ways, it provides a developmental prospect now for a mid-round pick value, and it doesn't eliminate a high-round pick next year if teh circumstances work out.

    4. Mid and Late Round Picks can be spent of defense. Safety and Linebacker especially are weak at current. Cornerback, despite the loss of Revis, should not be, with Wilson at least being given this year to earn (or lose) his spot on this team as the #2 CB.

    If the Jets go strongly Defense, it speaks volumes about the fight for control inside our team. Put simply, there is no way our new GM can look at the rlative strengths of the two units and see a primary need to bolster a Top 10 Unit over a last-in-the-NFL unit, in either short -term or long-term thinking or planning. If the Jets DO persue defense early with high-value picks, it's one sign (although surely not definitive) that Ryan remains firmly in control of the franchises overall direction AND will continue to either fail the offense side of the ball and/or express his faith in players currently on the team who have already shown such faith is not warranted (Sanchez, specificly, but others as well).

    The Jets have an opportunity to really bolster the weakest portion of the team, solidifying for the long term the O-line, providing at least one legitimate passing threat, and obtaining a QB to begin the transition away from the failed #1 Mark Sanchez, all without riskign a major falloff on the defensive side of the ball fromt he past two years. No, the D will not be elite, but at this point in our rebuilding, it doesn't need to be, it only need be competative as we progress through the rebuilding process.

    Whatever the FRanchise chooses, lets hope for the best, that we avoid the seemingly common Jets mistakes of draft day reaches, workout wonders, busts and ill suited players, the D-Robs, the Ghosts, the Duccasses, the Sanchez's. We need solid players who can anchor positions for the long term, not flash in the pan hype machines.

    Good luck Mr. Idzik, you're going to need it.

  2. #2
    My Dream Draft Today:

    #9: Tyler Eifert, TE from Notre Dame
    #13: One of the Top-Tier OL Guards
    2nd Round: E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State
    3rd: Another WR or LB/Safety
    4th: LB/Safety
    5th: LB/Safety/Cornerback
    6th: BAP Offense
    7th: BAP Offense

  3. #3
    Great post. Unfortunately Ryan will probably squeeze a first round pick on the defensive side of the ball out of Idzik, and if it was the right pass rusher, we probably couldn't complain that much. Unlike some on here, I'm also willing to go a little higher on the pick used for QB if it's someone I like (Smith, Manuel).

  4. #4
    The only 2 needs I really see on defense are at OLB and SAF. If we address those within the first 4 rounds then I don't mind taking offensive every other pick. I definitely agree with you that we need some playmakers in this draft. Right now, we need 4 impact offensive players in a pass-catching TE (I like Ertz in 2nd), RB (Ivory for 5th), WR (Tavon in 1st, Rogers in 3rd, Harper in 4th), and OG (Warmack/Cooper/Pugh/Jones)

    Some QBs make sense for the Jets to draft but I don't want to overdraft one. If we are taking someone in the 1st-2nd rounds then we better plan on making them our franchise QB.

  5. #5
    I really am a proponent of going with best players in the 1st two rounds no matter which side of the ball, especially if you are team with holes. It's clear our O is very weak but there simply isn't a ton of that kind of talent at the top half of the draft.

    I've seen all too many cases where teams slant their picks for need to some extent and then watch as the guys they passed become pro bowlers for the next 10 years.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Arctor View Post
    A few things I've been thinking.....

    1. I don't want to see the Jets draft Defense. Our Defense has been fine. Great? No. But Fine? Absolutely. Top 10 in yards Allowed and competative every single year, year in and year out, under Rex Ryan.
    "Our defense has been fine". That's past tense my friend. Ever since "our defense has been fine" we have lost DeVito, Pouha, Bryan Thomas, Bart Scott, Yeremiah Bell, Landry (replaced by the lesser Landry), Revis.

    You think it's still going to be "fine"? Our offense has not gotten worse, and we need a TE, but it sucks as bad as it did before (pretty stinkin' bad), but now the defense has become extraordinarily thin in the matter of a single off season, so this draft must address those needs too.



    Good luck Mr. Idzik, you're going to need it.
    May the force be with him.

  7. #7
    I'm sorry, but the only two positions on offense where I see MASSIVE holes are at QB and TE. I'm not saying we are particularly good or deep everywhere else, but its not horrendous.

    The O Line right now is average to good although lacking depth. Santonio is a good reciever, Kerlsey took a huge step last year and is clearly more than your run of the mill "slot guy". Hill showed the ability to make plays and get open at will last year. We've added a RB through free agency and are about to trade for another. That gives us three pretty solid and explosive backs.

    Other than Coples, Wilkerson, Harris, and Davis we have no front seven players worth a dam. Are Safteys are the worst in the league and we have no depth at corner.

    Yea, the defense has been the strength of this team the last few years. But we've lost a ton of talent due to age/contracts. We NEED to replenish this unit as badly as we need offense.

  8. #8
    I went to bed with the sinking feeling that Rex was going to find a way to talk Idzik into taking Millner at #9, if he's still there, or Hayden at #13.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Dcat View Post
    That's past tense my friend. Ever since "our defense has been fine" we have lost DeVito, Pouha, Bryan Thomas, Bart Scott, Yeremiah Bell, Landry (replaced by the lesser Landry), Revis.
    Of that list, there is only one difference maker/playmaker. Revis.

    The rest are all very average or system-syle players at best, and a few (Thomas and Scott) were clearly past their sell-by date.

    You think it's still going to be "fine"?
    Yes. I think without using a top-3-round pick on D, our 2013 D would finish Top 15 in yards and points allowed.

    Can you say the same about our Offense today?

    If Rex wishes to be retained beyond this year, this is his challenge. For once, to not get the pick of the litter on Draft Day for "his" unit. To be required to "coach up" people, and have it truly matter. To show why his talents and Defensive mind should be kept.

    By picking for Offense you not only bolster the weakest unit on the team, provide Sanchez a last chance to redeem himself and perhaps have a unit that doesn't finish bottom 5 again.....but you provide a legitimate make-or-break test for your Head Coach that will inform his future here.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Arctor View Post
    Of that list, there is only one difference maker/playmaker. Revis.

    The rest are all very average or system-syle players at best, and a few (Thomas and Scott) were clearly past their sell-by date.



    Yes. I think without using a top-3-round pick on D, our 2013 D would finish Top 15 in yards and points allowed.

    Can you say the same about our Offense today?

    If Rex wishes to be retained beyond this year, this is his challenge. For once, to not get the pick of the litter on Draft Day for "his" unit. To be required to "coach up" people, and have it truly matter. To show why his talents and Defensive mind should be kept.

    By picking for Offense you not only bolster the weakest unit on the team, provide Sanchez a last chance to redeem himself and perhaps have a unit that doesn't finish bottom 5 again.....but you provide a legitimate make-or-break test for your Head Coach that will inform his future here.
    Who did we replace pouha, devito, landry, bell, and revis with?

  11. #11
    I disagree. You keep throwing picks in one direction and before you can blink, the other side of the ball starts stinking it up. Then by the time your done throwing picks that way your offense starts getting stale and old and stinking it up. You draft with balance. You look at the BAP and you take him. If it's close then you take the guy who helps your team needs the most.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Arctor View Post
    Of that list, there is only one difference maker/playmaker. Revis.

    The rest are all very average or system-syle players at best, and a few (Thomas and Scott) were clearly past their sell-by date.



    Yes. I think without using a top-3-round pick on D, our 2013 D would finish Top 15 in yards and points allowed.

    Can you say the same about our Offense today?

    If Rex wishes to be retained beyond this year, this is his challenge. For once, to not get the pick of the litter on Draft Day for "his" unit. To be required to "coach up" people, and have it truly matter. To show why his talents and Defensive mind should be kept.

    By picking for Offense you not only bolster the weakest unit on the team, provide Sanchez a last chance to redeem himself and perhaps have a unit that doesn't finish bottom 5 again.....but you provide a legitimate make-or-break test for your Head Coach that will inform his future here.
    There is no player we can draft who will materially impact our offensive production this year. Ignoring the QB position, we have more talent/promise on the offensive side of the ball than on defense. I'd prefer at least one defensive player in the first round and would not be opposed to drafting two.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Chupa View Post
    Who did we replace pouha, devito
    Starting D-Line right now is Wilkerson, Ellis and Coples.

    landry
    Landry.

    Bell
    Bell was signed away for pennies. Clearly Rex didn't want him.

    With that said, I don't know as yet who his replacement is, someone on our roster now or a free agent yet to be signed. Bell is not diffiuclt to replace.

    and revis with?
    Cro is our #1 CB and replaces Revis. Wilson is our #2 CB (and a 1st round pick) and replaces Cro at #2.

    This will be the case no matter who we draft tonight, unless you think we are going CB at #9 or #13?

    Quote Originally Posted by Snell41 View Post
    I disagree. You keep throwing picks in one direction and before you can blink, the other side of the ball starts stinking it up. Then by the time your done throwing picks that way your offense starts getting stale and old and stinking it up. You draft with balance. You look at the BAP and you take him. If it's close then you take the guy who helps your team needs the most.
    If this were a one-year-only process, and this forthcoming draft the only way to aquire players, I'd agree with you.

    But if you check my list of preferences above, we'd still be selecting three-four players on D in the later rounds.

    And we'd still be able to fill holes remaining with free agents in the post-draft and camp periods.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by CoreyWill View Post
    Some QBs make sense for the Jets to draft but I don't want to overdraft one. If we are taking someone in the 1st-2nd rounds then we better plan on making them our franchise QB.
    I don't buy this. A QB taken in round 1 or 2 is not guaranteed anything in my book. It's simply adding talent at the most important position and one in which we are arguably the weakest in the entire league at with our depth chart. If you play well, you keep playing. If not, we'll draft another. Rookies don't make much money these days, the cost of taking a QB high in the draft is no longer financially prohibitive.

  15. #15
    I've got three words for the OP

    BPA

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Vader View Post
    I've got three words for the OP

    BPA
    The Lazy Way to Draft Thinking.

    What if the BAP is a DEnd? Going to select a DEnd with Coples and Wilkerson already in the fold?

    What if BAP is a Tackle. We'll just trade Brick then?

    BAP is fine for what it is, but a BAP must be head and shoulders above the next BAP of Need to make that BAP > BAP of Need.

    I ahve to admit, I am amazed, given how deeply bad our Offense has been for years now, that peopel would still cling to a Rex-esque "no, draft DEFENSE!!!!" theory of picks.

    If Rex is half the Coach he claims to be, he can make do while we at least bandage a bleeding mess of an O. If not, he'll be fired, and long term picks will be what counts....and this is an Offense-driven league, and I'll bet the next Head Coach won't be a Rex-like Defense-above-all mind anyway.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Arctor View Post
    The Lazy Way to Draft Thinking.

    What if the BAP is a DEnd? Going to select a DEnd with Coples and Wilkerson already in the fold?

    What if BAP is a Tackle. We'll just trade Brick then?

    BAP is fine for what it is, but a BAP must be head and shoulders above the next BAP of Need to make that BAP > BAP of Need.

    I ahve to admit, I am amazed, given how deeply bad our Offense has been for years now, that peopel would still cling to a Rex-esque "no, draft DEFENSE!!!!" theory of picks.

    If Rex is half the Coach he claims to be, he can make do while we at least bandage a bleeding mess of an O. If not, he'll be fired, and long term picks will be what counts....and this is an Offense-driven league, and I'll bet the next Head Coach won't be a Rex-like Defense-above-all mind anyway.
    Well, obviously there are limitations to BAP....the Colts aren't taking a QB with their 1st round pick regardless of their scouting dept's internal rankings. I think that's understood.

    But the Jets have the ability to add a player at most every position as there are holes pretty much everywhere - both Offense and Defense. If that means taking Star, I'm fine with that. If that means taking Cooper/Warmack, cool. And, if Eric Fisher somehow falls to #9, I'd start his ass at RT and not look back. Dion Jordan? Where do I sign?

    Having a sh!tty roster gives you the flexibility to draft most every position. The peverse benefits of being a 6-10 team. The only area where I'd hesitate is if the BAP a carbon copy of Coples or Big Mo. That exact guy is probably not ideal to add to the roster. In all other respects, I want great football players for this team.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB1089 View Post
    I went to bed with the sinking feeling that Rex was going to find a way to talk Idzik into taking Millner at #9, if he's still there, or Hayden at #13.
    i literally laughed out loud when i read this.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by SlickBri481 View Post
    Great post. Unfortunately Ryan will probably squeeze a first round pick on the defensive side of the ball out of Idzik, and if it was the right pass rusher, we probably couldn't complain that much. Unlike some on here, I'm also willing to go a little higher on the pick used for QB if it's someone I like (Smith, Manuel).
    You are assuming that Rex Ryan makes the pick. He has no more influence and is just a place holder for the next HC of the NYJ. He was kept on to be defensive coordinator because Woody is too cheap to pay Ryan this years 3 million dollars in the last year of his contract to stay home and be a TV analyst.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Robert Arctor View Post
    The Lazy Way to Draft Thinking.

    What if the BAP is a DEnd? Going to select a DEnd with Coples and Wilkerson already in the fold?

    What if BAP is a Tackle. We'll just trade Brick then?

    BAP is fine for what it is, but a BAP must be head and shoulders above the next BAP of Need to make that BAP > BAP of Need.

    I ahve to admit, I am amazed, given how deeply bad our Offense has been for years now, that peopel would still cling to a Rex-esque "no, draft DEFENSE!!!!" theory of picks.

    If Rex is half the Coach he claims to be, he can make do while we at least bandage a bleeding mess of an O. If not, he'll be fired, and long term picks will be what counts....and this is an Offense-driven league, and I'll bet the next Head Coach won't be a Rex-like Defense-above-all mind anyway.
    As has been mentioned there are limits to BAP at the margins of valuation, for example approximate parity in value between prospects and one is an area of great need, however to go in thinking u must draft one side of the ball exclusively is a complete abandonment of BAP philosophy altogether.

    BAP is a general strategy informed for sure by pragmatics, to different degrees based on context. But the theory behind it is a good one.

    To answer your question - yes you definitely take the DE if he is clear BPA (see giants, New York, drafting DE after DE). If there is proximate value at a position of great need and a position as premium then for all intents and purposes the prospects have parity.

    Alternatively if u are looking at a DE that is BPA, given the positions relative import, you might consider moving down in the draft, and picking up additional picks as well as the player u wanted to begin with, or a player of similar value. Because bottom line - there will be teams that may want to draft BPA ( and considering the demand for premium DEs...) if u don't...

    Consider your draft - do u REALLY need a top 15 pick TE??? The answer is no. Smart teams draft Gronk and jimmy graham after day 1. Trade back, get an additional pick and take Ertz later... Really is eifert the second coming of Vernon Davis combined with Gronk??? Answer is no. TE isn't a premium position to begin with.

    BPA is not by any means lazy drafting. On the contrary, it is the foundation of all strategic draft theory and roster management in general.

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