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Thread: Great ESPN article on Jets draft

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Kentucky Jet View Post
    Nor should they! If Sucky got 4 or 5 years to do his thing, Geno deserves a few years too.
    Agreed and that is why I didn't want to draft a QB at all in this draft.

  2. #22
    What amazes me more then anything is BSPN writing or saying anything positive in regards to the Jets.

  3. #23
    Negative articles about the Jets are bashing, positive articles about the Jets are brilliant.

  4. #24
    Just wanted to address the the WR/TE question.
    Honestly, if we get better production from the QB position, our WR's and TE's are going to look 100 % better and their production is going to go up as well. Hard to be much worst then last year anyway

    The CB spot with the best CB in the draft Dee Mill coming to the Jets should be okay. He is no Revis but in the words of Rex" he is pretty f'en good" ! Add in Cro and Wilson and you have a nice three spot going there.

    No doubt safety has big ????? marks, but we have to see how it plays out, we might be able to pick up a hold the fort veteran cut along the way, should there be concern about the young guys. Yet I do hope the the kids step up and show the coaches they are capable and ready to start.
    Last edited by fltflo; 05-24-2013 at 04:15 PM.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    There's a great piece on ESPN insider on the jets draft. titles 'why joe nameth is wrong. drafting geno smith was anything but a mistake'.

    makes 5 main points:

    1) jets maximized chance to compete now by improving defense in draft;

    2) jets maximized draft board value, didn't reach for offensive skill players;

    3) jets figured the wrs they have, when healthy, are better than what they could have drafted;

    4) taking geno in the 2nd round maximizes cost/benefits of qb risk;

    5) taking geno in 2nd round doesn't prevent them, salary cap wise, from drafting another qb next year.

    very level-headed, reasoned article, defending idzik's draft and the decision to take geno.
    That's similar to an article from Jason's "Over The Cap" :


    http://overthecap.com/the-benefits-o...-the-young-qb/
    Last edited by WestCoastOffensive; 05-24-2013 at 10:31 PM.

  6. #26
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    We need to start using our 1st round picks on players that can help us score points. Playmakers at the skill positions on offense. The strategy we've been using won't make us contenders, and games will continue to be tough to watch.

  7. #27
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    And this stuff about Hayden Smith and Cumberland being "secret weapons" is crazy talk. We need actual talent on offense.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzzsaw View Post
    And this stuff about Hayden Smith and Cumberland being "secret weapons" is crazy talk. We need actual talent on offense.
    I like Cumberland as a Tony Fasano type TE, but i didnt even see Hayden Smith play last season.

    Granted i wasnt looking too hard towards the end of the season, but did he get some playing time?

  9. #29
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    So when the media say positive things about the Jets they're great but when they say negative things they're bias? I get it now.

  10. #30

    Copy of Article

    If you're a New York Jets fan, make a little note on your fridge-sized schedule or put a reminder in your Outlook calendar: A few minutes after halftime of the Week 7 game between the Jets and Patriots this upcoming season, Mark Sanchez will have made a little more than $5 million toward his total cap hit of $12.85 million for 2013. That number is notable for this reason: That $5 million is what Geno Smith is going to make over the four years of rookie deal he'll sign with the Jets -- total.

    It won't matter if Smith has Jay-Z or Jay Mohr as his agent -- that total is locked in. At that point, remind those who think drafting Smith was a mistake, or not a big need -- as Joe Namath stated this week -- that what the Jets will pay Sanchez for nearly 50 percent of what should be his last, lame-duck season, they'll likely pay Smith on the entirety of his first contract. This means that at its highest point, Smith's first deal will never represent a cap hit of even 2 percent of the Jets total salary cap.

    And whether Smith ever becomes a great player, a good player, or merely a quality backup, New York's decision to draft him where it did was a smart one. Maybe he wasn't a "need" by the technical standards of Namath's definition -- yes, Sanchez is available to start football games. Namath and so many suffering Jets fans have been exposed to so much lunacy in decision-making at the QB position that it's easy to forget that smart franchises don't find the best QB value when it's a huge need -- they find it and have the chance to develop a player when it's not.

    The decision on Smith, and New York's draft strategy as a whole, actually makes a lot of sense, and there a number of reasons why. Here are five:



    1. They maximized the chance to compete now
    So many fans clamor for teams to draft with the goal of mending a roster weakness that they often overlook the value of maximizing a strength. As you see in the chart at right, over the past eight NFL seasons, Rex Ryan has run defenses that never once have fared worse than No. 7 in the NFL in total defense (total yards allowed per game).

    Normally I'd rely on a more advanced look at defensive efficiency, but this one is very telling because it in part takes into account what the offense is doing. If you have a below-average offense, as the Jets have had, it can often make defenses look even worse. Offenses that can't stay on the field leave defenses even more exposed, and the Jets went three-and-out on offense over 26 percent of the time last season. They ranked 32nd in that category the year before, 18th in 2010 and 22nd in 2009. Even going back to 2008, the Ravens were a below-average 18th. And yet Ryan still manages to consistently put together defenses that will always keep teams competitive, regardless of what the offense provides.

    The Jets' new management inherited a salary cap mess and wasn't going to be able to dramatically upgrade the offensive personnel this offseason by shopping for top offensive talent (to the extent it even exists in free agency), nor was it going to be able to get talent to affect a dramatic shift from the draft, especially after St. Louis moved up in front of the Jets to No. 8 overall to take Tavon Austin. So the Jets opted to strengthen their biggest competitive advantage and got the best cornerback (Dee Milliner) and a defensive lineman (Sheldon Richardson) who would help a master schemer in Ryan do more on defense. Remember this: If anything has allowed Sanchez to claim the "winner" label in New York, it's been the defense, not his own play, because he simply has never been above average. This is a fact. And what the Jets did in Round 1, while it could be perceived as a detriment to the offense, actually will do the team plenty of good.


    2. They maximized draft board value
    The Jets had internal conversations about taking Smith at No. 13 overall before ultimately settling on Richardson. And while you can quibble about whether they should have taken an early-impact offensive threat such as tight end Tyler Eifert at that spot, we can all agree that by taking Smith at No. 39 overall, they'd won a pretty big hand of draft board poker. Regardless of what you think about Smith, the Jets smartly gauged that in a year without certain impact talent at QB, and due to depressed need, QBs would drop. Whether Smith is good or not, the low cost of getting him at No. 39 overall mitigated any risk. It was somewhat reminiscent of when the Bengals waited out a QB run of quarterbacks in 2010 and still got a player they really liked in Andy Dalton in Round 2.

    3. They factored in their own offensive resources
    Regardless of whether the Jets drafted a wide receiver in Round 1, they couldn't figure to get more impact from any wideout in 2013 than they'll get from a healthy Santonio Holmes. Holmes is no star, but he had 103 catches in his first two years in New York, and was at least on pace for 80 last season before he went down in Week 4. As I've said before, Stephen Hill's route tree in the Georgia Tech was a cactus, and he also figures to be improved after a year of frustrating seasoning in the NFL.

    You can argue that the Jets offense in 2013 should be better mostly because mathematically it couldn't get any worse, but you don't just draft based on statistical need -- you draft and acquire based on reasonable assumptions about gains you'll get from current personnel.

    4. They made a reasonable cost/benefit decision
    As I noted before, the previous Jets administration made so many quizzical decisions at QB from a cost/benefit standpoint, fans might not realize what a sensible one looks like. In taking Smith at No. 39, and having already upgraded the roster in a couple key spots, the Jets aren't paying for assumed performance from Smith -- they're paying very little for what could be a great deal of on-field value, even if it's merely insurance. Namath says they had bigger "needs," but no team assumes they'll get major first-year impact from a Round 2 pick. The 2012 draft provided a lot of early returns from Round 2, but only a third of those picks were consistent starters, and a number of those were at more fungible positions such as linebacker and along the offensive line, where players can be shifted around.

    Smith's ability to fill a need at QB isn't just reflected in the state of the 2013 roster. Choosing him is also reflected in the possible needs for 2014. Which brings us to a final point.

    5. They drafted a player -- they didn't marry him
    This is pretty simple: If, after a year of evaluation, and maybe even some starts, the Jets don't feel Smith is the starter of the future, so what? At that point, even in a worst-case scenario, they have a backup they aren't going to commit more than 1.5 percent of their salary cap to over the next four seasons, and they also have a low-cost QB commodity who could be dealt for future draft picks. If the season is a total disaster, and next offseason we're looking at a situation where Sanchez is no longer on the roster and Smith isn't the clear answer going forward, the Jets haven't put themselves in a situation where they can't either target a QB in free agency or once again in the draft. Options remain wide open.

    In a way, the selection of Smith reminds me of what the Lions faced in 2007 when they decided to draft Calvin Johnson. Smith and Johnson are by no means comparable talents, but consider the situation. The Lions had drafted Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Roy Williams in previous years, and even the selection of Johnson seemed laughable. But it wasn't because of Johnson, it was because of the situation and team he was headed to. Johnson was a great prospect, but you had to assume the worst because of Detroit's absurd history with the position.

    Smith was a perfectly logical pick at his price point, and he goes to a team that, while perpetually dysfunctional at the position, really does need a QB like him to develop and is making reasonable personnel moves under a new decision-maker. And whether Smith succeeds or fails won't diminish that fact. That Week 7 reminder will be helpful to understand why.

  11. #31
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    full article:

    If you're a New York Jets fan, make a little note on your fridge-sized schedule or put a reminder in your Outlook calendar: A few minutes after halftime of the Week 7 game between the Jets and Patriots this upcoming season, Mark Sanchez will have made a little more than $5 million toward his total cap hit of $12.85 million for 2013. That number is notable for this reason: That $5 million is what Geno Smith is going to make over the four years of rookie deal he'll sign with the Jets -- total.

    It won't matter if Smith has Jay-Z or Jay Mohr as his agent -- that total is locked in. At that point, remind those who think drafting Smith was a mistake, or not a big need -- as Joe Namath stated this week -- that what the Jets will pay Sanchez for nearly 50 percent of what should be his last, lame-duck season, they'll likely pay Smith on the entirety of his first contract. This means that at its highest point, Smith's first deal will never represent a cap hit of even 2 percent of the Jets total salary cap.

    And whether Smith ever becomes a great player, a good player, or merely a quality backup, New York's decision to draft him where it did was a smart one. Maybe he wasn't a "need" by the technical standards of Namath's definition -- yes, Sanchez is available to start football games. Namath and so many suffering Jets fans have been exposed to so much lunacy in decision-making at the QB position that it's easy to forget that smart franchises don't find the best QB value when it's a huge need -- they find it and have the chance to develop a player when it's not.

    The decision on Smith, and New York's draft strategy as a whole, actually makes a lot of sense, and there a number of reasons why. Here are five:


    The Rex Effect
    NFL total defense rankings for defenses run by Rex Ryan over the last eight NFL seasons, four in New York, four as defensive coordinator in Baltimore.

    Team Year Rank
    Jets 2012 6th
    Jets 2011 4th
    Jets 2010 3rd
    Jets 2009 1st
    Ravens 2008 2nd
    Ravens 2007 7th
    Ravens 2006 1st
    Ravens 2005 3rd
    1. They maximized the chance to compete now
    So many fans clamor for teams to draft with the goal of mending a roster weakness that they often overlook the value of maximizing a strength. As you see in the chart at right, over the past eight NFL seasons, Rex Ryan has run defenses that never once have fared worse than No. 7 in the NFL in total defense (total yards allowed per game).

    Normally I'd rely on a more advanced look at defensive efficiency, but this one is very telling because it in part takes into account what the offense is doing. If you have a below-average offense, as the Jets have had, it can often make defenses look even worse. Offenses that can't stay on the field leave defenses even more exposed, and the Jets went three-and-out on offense over 26 percent of the time last season. They ranked 32nd in that category the year before, 18th in 2010 and 22nd in 2009. Even going back to 2008, the Ravens were a below-average 18th. And yet Ryan still manages to consistently put together defenses that will always keep teams competitive, regardless of what the offense provides.

    The Jets' new management inherited a salary cap mess and wasn't going to be able to dramatically upgrade the offensive personnel this offseason by shopping for top offensive talent (to the extent it even exists in free agency), nor was it going to be able to get talent to affect a dramatic shift from the draft, especially after St. Louis moved up in front of the Jets to No. 8 overall to take Tavon Austin. So the Jets opted to strengthen their biggest competitive advantage and got the best cornerback (Dee Milliner) and a defensive lineman (Sheldon Richardson) who would help a master schemer in Ryan do more on defense. Remember this: If anything has allowed Sanchez to claim the "winner" label in New York, it's been the defense, not his own play, because he simply has never been above average. This is a fact. And what the Jets did in Round 1, while it could be perceived as a detriment to the offense, actually will do the team plenty of good.


    In Round 2, Geno Smith presented the Jets with great value potential.
    2. They maximized draft board value
    The Jets had internal conversations about taking Smith at No. 13 overall before ultimately settling on Richardson. And while you can quibble about whether they should have taken an early-impact offensive threat such as tight end Tyler Eifert at that spot, we can all agree that by taking Smith at No. 39 overall, they'd won a pretty big hand of draft board poker. Regardless of what you think about Smith, the Jets smartly gauged that in a year without certain impact talent at QB, and due to depressed need, QBs would drop. Whether Smith is good or not, the low cost of getting him at No. 39 overall mitigated any risk. It was somewhat reminiscent of when the Bengals waited out a QB run of quarterbacks in 2010 and still got a player they really liked in Andy Dalton in Round 2.

    3. They factored in their own offensive resources
    Regardless of whether the Jets drafted a wide receiver in Round 1, they couldn't figure to get more impact from any wideout in 2013 than they'll get from a healthy Santonio Holmes. Holmes is no star, but he had 103 catches in his first two years in New York, and was at least on pace for 80 last season before he went down in Week 4. As I've said before, Stephen Hill's route tree in the Georgia Tech was a cactus, and he also figures to be improved after a year of frustrating seasoning in the NFL.

    You can argue that the Jets offense in 2013 should be better mostly because mathematically it couldn't get any worse, but you don't just draft based on statistical need -- you draft and acquire based on reasonable assumptions about gains you'll get from current personnel.

    4. They made a reasonable cost/benefit decision
    As I noted before, the previous Jets administration made so many quizzical decisions at QB from a cost/benefit standpoint, fans might not realize what a sensible one looks like. In taking Smith at No. 39, and having already upgraded the roster in a couple key spots, the Jets aren't paying for assumed performance from Smith -- they're paying very little for what could be a great deal of on-field value, even if it's merely insurance. Namath says they had bigger "needs," but no team assumes they'll get major first-year impact from a Round 2 pick. The 2012 draft provided a lot of early returns from Round 2, but only a third of those picks were consistent starters, and a number of those were at more fungible positions such as linebacker and along the offensive line, where players can be shifted around.

    Smith's ability to fill a need at QB isn't just reflected in the state of the 2013 roster. Choosing him is also reflected in the possible needs for 2014. Which brings us to a final point.

    5. They drafted a player -- they didn't marry him
    This is pretty simple: If, after a year of evaluation, and maybe even some starts, the Jets don't feel Smith is the starter of the future, so what? At that point, even in a worst-case scenario, they have a backup they aren't going to commit more than 1.5 percent of their salary cap to over the next four seasons, and they also have a low-cost QB commodity who could be dealt for future draft picks. If the season is a total disaster, and next offseason we're looking at a situation where Sanchez is no longer on the roster and Smith isn't the clear answer going forward, the Jets haven't put themselves in a situation where they can't either target a QB in free agency or once again in the draft. Options remain wide open.

    In a way, the selection of Smith reminds me of what the Lions faced in 2007 when they decided to draft Calvin Johnson. Smith and Johnson are by no means comparable talents, but consider the situation. The Lions had drafted Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Roy Williams in previous years, and even the selection of Johnson seemed laughable. But it wasn't because of Johnson, it was because of the situation and team he was headed to. Johnson was a great prospect, but you had to assume the worst because of Detroit's absurd history with the position.

    Smith was a perfectly logical pick at his price point, and he goes to a team that, while perpetually dysfunctional at the position, really does need a QB like him to develop and is making reasonable personnel moves under a new decision-maker. And whether Smith succeeds or fails won't diminish that fact. That Week 7 reminder will be helpful to understand why.

  12. #32
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    I still like the Smith pick if nothing but for the value of having a solid backup at low cost. Backup QB's cost about 2m a year, we got one that's about 1.25m a year over 4 years. And that's assuming he doesn't pan out. If he does we have a franchise QB and the upside is there. Will see in time but either way the Jets made a great pick. Imagine the backlash if we didn't draft him? Critics would be at our tails about not drafting the top QB on the board knowing we needed one to have competition at that position. How many back stories would that have given the NY Jets?

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Mainejet View Post
    1) The team probably got better along the D line, but what about the hole FS, CB?

    2) That may be true, but that doesn't help us on the field.

    3) Possible

    4) See number 2

    5) True.
    Stop reading at #1 smh. Go watch the CFL, it's closer to Maine.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by BrickHouse View Post
    full article:

    If you're a New York Jets fan, make a little note on your fridge-sized schedule or put a reminder in your Outlook calendar: A few minutes after halftime of the Week 7 game between the Jets and Patriots this upcoming season, Mark Sanchez will have made a little more than $5 million toward his total cap hit of $12.85 million for 2013. That number is notable for this reason: That $5 million is what Geno Smith is going to make over the four years of rookie deal he'll sign with the Jets -- total.

    It won't matter if Smith has Jay-Z or Jay Mohr as his agent -- that total is locked in. At that point, remind those who think drafting Smith was a mistake, or not a big need -- as Joe Namath stated this week -- that what the Jets will pay Sanchez for nearly 50 percent of what should be his last, lame-duck season, they'll likely pay Smith on the entirety of his first contract. This means that at its highest point, Smith's first deal will never represent a cap hit of even 2 percent of the Jets total salary cap.

    And whether Smith ever becomes a great player, a good player, or merely a quality backup, New York's decision to draft him where it did was a smart one. Maybe he wasn't a "need" by the technical standards of Namath's definition -- yes, Sanchez is available to start football games. Namath and so many suffering Jets fans have been exposed to so much lunacy in decision-making at the QB position that it's easy to forget that smart franchises don't find the best QB value when it's a huge need -- they find it and have the chance to develop a player when it's not.

    The decision on Smith, and New York's draft strategy as a whole, actually makes a lot of sense, and there a number of reasons why. Here are five:


    The Rex Effect
    NFL total defense rankings for defenses run by Rex Ryan over the last eight NFL seasons, four in New York, four as defensive coordinator in Baltimore.

    Team Year Rank
    Jets 2012 6th
    Jets 2011 4th
    Jets 2010 3rd
    Jets 2009 1st
    Ravens 2008 2nd
    Ravens 2007 7th
    Ravens 2006 1st
    Ravens 2005 3rd
    1. They maximized the chance to compete now
    So many fans clamor for teams to draft with the goal of mending a roster weakness that they often overlook the value of maximizing a strength. As you see in the chart at right, over the past eight NFL seasons, Rex Ryan has run defenses that never once have fared worse than No. 7 in the NFL in total defense (total yards allowed per game).

    Normally I'd rely on a more advanced look at defensive efficiency, but this one is very telling because it in part takes into account what the offense is doing. If you have a below-average offense, as the Jets have had, it can often make defenses look even worse. Offenses that can't stay on the field leave defenses even more exposed, and the Jets went three-and-out on offense over 26 percent of the time last season. They ranked 32nd in that category the year before, 18th in 2010 and 22nd in 2009. Even going back to 2008, the Ravens were a below-average 18th. And yet Ryan still manages to consistently put together defenses that will always keep teams competitive, regardless of what the offense provides.

    The Jets' new management inherited a salary cap mess and wasn't going to be able to dramatically upgrade the offensive personnel this offseason by shopping for top offensive talent (to the extent it even exists in free agency), nor was it going to be able to get talent to affect a dramatic shift from the draft, especially after St. Louis moved up in front of the Jets to No. 8 overall to take Tavon Austin. So the Jets opted to strengthen their biggest competitive advantage and got the best cornerback (Dee Milliner) and a defensive lineman (Sheldon Richardson) who would help a master schemer in Ryan do more on defense. Remember this: If anything has allowed Sanchez to claim the "winner" label in New York, it's been the defense, not his own play, because he simply has never been above average. This is a fact. And what the Jets did in Round 1, while it could be perceived as a detriment to the offense, actually will do the team plenty of good.


    In Round 2, Geno Smith presented the Jets with great value potential.
    2. They maximized draft board value
    The Jets had internal conversations about taking Smith at No. 13 overall before ultimately settling on Richardson. And while you can quibble about whether they should have taken an early-impact offensive threat such as tight end Tyler Eifert at that spot, we can all agree that by taking Smith at No. 39 overall, they'd won a pretty big hand of draft board poker. Regardless of what you think about Smith, the Jets smartly gauged that in a year without certain impact talent at QB, and due to depressed need, QBs would drop. Whether Smith is good or not, the low cost of getting him at No. 39 overall mitigated any risk. It was somewhat reminiscent of when the Bengals waited out a QB run of quarterbacks in 2010 and still got a player they really liked in Andy Dalton in Round 2.

    3. They factored in their own offensive resources
    Regardless of whether the Jets drafted a wide receiver in Round 1, they couldn't figure to get more impact from any wideout in 2013 than they'll get from a healthy Santonio Holmes. Holmes is no star, but he had 103 catches in his first two years in New York, and was at least on pace for 80 last season before he went down in Week 4. As I've said before, Stephen Hill's route tree in the Georgia Tech was a cactus, and he also figures to be improved after a year of frustrating seasoning in the NFL.

    You can argue that the Jets offense in 2013 should be better mostly because mathematically it couldn't get any worse, but you don't just draft based on statistical need -- you draft and acquire based on reasonable assumptions about gains you'll get from current personnel.

    4. They made a reasonable cost/benefit decision
    As I noted before, the previous Jets administration made so many quizzical decisions at QB from a cost/benefit standpoint, fans might not realize what a sensible one looks like. In taking Smith at No. 39, and having already upgraded the roster in a couple key spots, the Jets aren't paying for assumed performance from Smith -- they're paying very little for what could be a great deal of on-field value, even if it's merely insurance. Namath says they had bigger "needs," but no team assumes they'll get major first-year impact from a Round 2 pick. The 2012 draft provided a lot of early returns from Round 2, but only a third of those picks were consistent starters, and a number of those were at more fungible positions such as linebacker and along the offensive line, where players can be shifted around.

    Smith's ability to fill a need at QB isn't just reflected in the state of the 2013 roster. Choosing him is also reflected in the possible needs for 2014. Which brings us to a final point.

    5. They drafted a player -- they didn't marry him
    This is pretty simple: If, after a year of evaluation, and maybe even some starts, the Jets don't feel Smith is the starter of the future, so what? At that point, even in a worst-case scenario, they have a backup they aren't going to commit more than 1.5 percent of their salary cap to over the next four seasons, and they also have a low-cost QB commodity who could be dealt for future draft picks. If the season is a total disaster, and next offseason we're looking at a situation where Sanchez is no longer on the roster and Smith isn't the clear answer going forward, the Jets haven't put themselves in a situation where they can't either target a QB in free agency or once again in the draft. Options remain wide open.

    In a way, the selection of Smith reminds me of what the Lions faced in 2007 when they decided to draft Calvin Johnson. Smith and Johnson are by no means comparable talents, but consider the situation. The Lions had drafted Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Roy Williams in previous years, and even the selection of Johnson seemed laughable. But it wasn't because of Johnson, it was because of the situation and team he was headed to. Johnson was a great prospect, but you had to assume the worst because of Detroit's absurd history with the position.

    Smith was a perfectly logical pick at his price point, and he goes to a team that, while perpetually dysfunctional at the position, really does need a QB like him to develop and is making reasonable personnel moves under a new decision-maker. And whether Smith succeeds or fails won't diminish that fact. That Week 7 reminder will be helpful to understand why.
    Thanks for posting so we all can read it.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Buzzsaw View Post
    We need to start using our 1st round picks on players that can help us score points. Playmakers at the skill positions on offense. The strategy we've been using won't make us contenders, and games will continue to be tough to watch.
    Our QB play, along with the injuries we had last year have greatly devalued the quality of our offensive players (aside from TE).

    If holmes is healthy kerley is a more then capable #2 and we now have an OC who actually knows how to call plays. If hill can take a decent step forward thats not a terrible group.

    Our offensive play calling was so terrible last year combined with a one dimensional RB (run straight forward only and cant catch), no screen passes to make the defense have to think about covering sideline to sideline, and a WR corps that had kerley, a developmental rookie and nothing else - how could we expect anything more. All this (along with an old/slow defense) and we managed 6 wins.

    Geno happens to be an excellent fit for MM's offense and should easily win the job and we will be able to see what this team can do with just average QB play and more speed on defense. Im looking forward to it.

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by eaglenj View Post
    Our QB play, along with the injuries we had last year have greatly devalued the quality of our offensive players (aside from TE).
    The chicken or the egg here. The team has still not addressed the needs Sanchez warranted a year ago at this time. Geno may be a great value where we got him, but do we expect an unknown to do better with nothing?

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winstonbiggs View Post
    Negative articles about the Jets are bashing, positive articles about the Jets are brilliant.
    I always get a kick out of that. Not for nothing but the article basically states the obvious. There is nothing there that hasn't already been posted on this forum.

    One thing I disagree with is the "salary cap mess" theory (even though I once subscribed to it). That has been practically debunked by Jason if you have read some of his stuff lately. And I do think we could have upgraded our WR/TE position in this draft without reaching.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    1) jets maximized chance to compete now by improving defense in draft;

    Agreed

    2) jets maximized draft board value, didn't reach for offensive skill players;

    Agreed

    3) jets figured the wrs they have, when healthy, are better than what they could have drafted;

    When healthy is a big if and I disagree overall with this. We have a weak receiving group overall.
    Holmes: injured, overrated, bad character, one step from a year suspension.
    Hill: Coming off a bad injury, still raw, suspect hands.
    Kerley: Good player but does not scare other teams.
    TE: We have none.


    4) taking geno in the 2nd round maximizes cost/benefits of qb risk;

    Agreed.

    5) taking geno in 2nd round doesn't prevent them, salary cap wise, from drafting another qb next year.

    This is a nice theory but it won't happen unless the Jets go 2-14 and have the top pick in the draft. If the Jets pick a QB next year Geno will be looked at as a wasted bust pick. Even if teams are not married to QBs financially in most cases they are by the nature of the position.

    very level-headed, reasoned article, defending idzik's draft and the decision to take geno.

    Picking Geno where they did was good value but he is their guy, they are not going to toss him next year for a high pick.
    Disagree about wasted pick.. I don't see how we can only win 2 games, but if we do and get #1 or #2 pick we can very well pick a stud qb and trade geno for a 2nd rounder.. Not every qb does well their 1st yr, geno will not go worse than a 2nd rd value only after 1 year..most qbs goes through rookie pains, teams would much rather trade a 2nd for geno then draft a qb in 2nd rd. geno will be more nfl ready.. Nothing against geno, but had the colts or skins picked a decent rookie in 2011 draft, they would have Been very foolish to pass on luck or rg3( I know skins traded up) in 12 draft just because they picked a qb early yr before.. its not like we are the raiders and know we will be picking in the top 5 every year.. If we knew that I don't think we pick geno..but glad we did, def an upgrade over sanchoke.. I doubt we lose more than 10 games next yr so we won't get the #1 pick..

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by IndianaJet View Post
    How are we gonna have the #1 overall pic when GenoJet leads us to 13 wins this year......
    In your dreams, Geno's gonna stink, 33 college fumbles, his team came in 6th in the big 12. He is Akail Smith.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by BrickHouse View Post
    full article:

    If you're a New York Jets fan, make a little note on your fridge-sized schedule or put a reminder in your Outlook calendar: A few minutes after halftime of the Week 7 game between the Jets and Patriots this upcoming season, Mark Sanchez will have made a little more than $5 million toward his total cap hit of $12.85 million for 2013. That number is notable for this reason: That $5 million is what Geno Smith is going to make over the four years of rookie deal he'll sign with the Jets -- total.

    It won't matter if Smith has Jay-Z or Jay Mohr as his agent -- that total is locked in. At that point, remind those who think drafting Smith was a mistake, or not a big need -- as Joe Namath stated this week -- that what the Jets will pay Sanchez for nearly 50 percent of what should be his last, lame-duck season, they'll likely pay Smith on the entirety of his first contract. This means that at its highest point, Smith's first deal will never represent a cap hit of even 2 percent of the Jets total salary cap.

    And whether Smith ever becomes a great player, a good player, or merely a quality backup, New York's decision to draft him where it did was a smart one. Maybe he wasn't a "need" by the technical standards of Namath's definition -- yes, Sanchez is available to start football games. Namath and so many suffering Jets fans have been exposed to so much lunacy in decision-making at the QB position that it's easy to forget that smart franchises don't find the best QB value when it's a huge need -- they find it and have the chance to develop a player when it's not.

    The decision on Smith, and New York's draft strategy as a whole, actually makes a lot of sense, and there a number of reasons why. Here are five:


    The Rex Effect
    NFL total defense rankings for defenses run by Rex Ryan over the last eight NFL seasons, four in New York, four as defensive coordinator in Baltimore.

    Team Year Rank
    Jets 2012 6th
    Jets 2011 4th
    Jets 2010 3rd
    Jets 2009 1st
    Ravens 2008 2nd
    Ravens 2007 7th
    Ravens 2006 1st
    Ravens 2005 3rd
    1. They maximized the chance to compete now
    So many fans clamor for teams to draft with the goal of mending a roster weakness that they often overlook the value of maximizing a strength. As you see in the chart at right, over the past eight NFL seasons, Rex Ryan has run defenses that never once have fared worse than No. 7 in the NFL in total defense (total yards allowed per game).

    Normally I'd rely on a more advanced look at defensive efficiency, but this one is very telling because it in part takes into account what the offense is doing. If you have a below-average offense, as the Jets have had, it can often make defenses look even worse. Offenses that can't stay on the field leave defenses even more exposed, and the Jets went three-and-out on offense over 26 percent of the time last season. They ranked 32nd in that category the year before, 18th in 2010 and 22nd in 2009. Even going back to 2008, the Ravens were a below-average 18th. And yet Ryan still manages to consistently put together defenses that will always keep teams competitive, regardless of what the offense provides.

    The Jets' new management inherited a salary cap mess and wasn't going to be able to dramatically upgrade the offensive personnel this offseason by shopping for top offensive talent (to the extent it even exists in free agency), nor was it going to be able to get talent to affect a dramatic shift from the draft, especially after St. Louis moved up in front of the Jets to No. 8 overall to take Tavon Austin. So the Jets opted to strengthen their biggest competitive advantage and got the best cornerback (Dee Milliner) and a defensive lineman (Sheldon Richardson) who would help a master schemer in Ryan do more on defense. Remember this: If anything has allowed Sanchez to claim the "winner" label in New York, it's been the defense, not his own play, because he simply has never been above average. This is a fact. And what the Jets did in Round 1, while it could be perceived as a detriment to the offense, actually will do the team plenty of good.


    In Round 2, Geno Smith presented the Jets with great value potential.
    2. They maximized draft board value
    The Jets had internal conversations about taking Smith at No. 13 overall before ultimately settling on Richardson. And while you can quibble about whether they should have taken an early-impact offensive threat such as tight end Tyler Eifert at that spot, we can all agree that by taking Smith at No. 39 overall, they'd won a pretty big hand of draft board poker. Regardless of what you think about Smith, the Jets smartly gauged that in a year without certain impact talent at QB, and due to depressed need, QBs would drop. Whether Smith is good or not, the low cost of getting him at No. 39 overall mitigated any risk. It was somewhat reminiscent of when the Bengals waited out a QB run of quarterbacks in 2010 and still got a player they really liked in Andy Dalton in Round 2.

    3. They factored in their own offensive resources
    Regardless of whether the Jets drafted a wide receiver in Round 1, they couldn't figure to get more impact from any wideout in 2013 than they'll get from a healthy Santonio Holmes. Holmes is no star, but he had 103 catches in his first two years in New York, and was at least on pace for 80 last season before he went down in Week 4. As I've said before, Stephen Hill's route tree in the Georgia Tech was a cactus, and he also figures to be improved after a year of frustrating seasoning in the NFL.

    You can argue that the Jets offense in 2013 should be better mostly because mathematically it couldn't get any worse, but you don't just draft based on statistical need -- you draft and acquire based on reasonable assumptions about gains you'll get from current personnel.

    4. They made a reasonable cost/benefit decision
    As I noted before, the previous Jets administration made so many quizzical decisions at QB from a cost/benefit standpoint, fans might not realize what a sensible one looks like. In taking Smith at No. 39, and having already upgraded the roster in a couple key spots, the Jets aren't paying for assumed performance from Smith -- they're paying very little for what could be a great deal of on-field value, even if it's merely insurance. Namath says they had bigger "needs," but no team assumes they'll get major first-year impact from a Round 2 pick. The 2012 draft provided a lot of early returns from Round 2, but only a third of those picks were consistent starters, and a number of those were at more fungible positions such as linebacker and along the offensive line, where players can be shifted around.

    Smith's ability to fill a need at QB isn't just reflected in the state of the 2013 roster. Choosing him is also reflected in the possible needs for 2014. Which brings us to a final point.

    5. They drafted a player -- they didn't marry him
    This is pretty simple: If, after a year of evaluation, and maybe even some starts, the Jets don't feel Smith is the starter of the future, so what? At that point, even in a worst-case scenario, they have a backup they aren't going to commit more than 1.5 percent of their salary cap to over the next four seasons, and they also have a low-cost QB commodity who could be dealt for future draft picks. If the season is a total disaster, and next offseason we're looking at a situation where Sanchez is no longer on the roster and Smith isn't the clear answer going forward, the Jets haven't put themselves in a situation where they can't either target a QB in free agency or once again in the draft. Options remain wide open.

    In a way, the selection of Smith reminds me of what the Lions faced in 2007 when they decided to draft Calvin Johnson. Smith and Johnson are by no means comparable talents, but consider the situation. The Lions had drafted Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Roy Williams in previous years, and even the selection of Johnson seemed laughable. But it wasn't because of Johnson, it was because of the situation and team he was headed to. Johnson was a great prospect, but you had to assume the worst because of Detroit's absurd history with the position.

    Smith was a perfectly logical pick at his price point, and he goes to a team that, while perpetually dysfunctional at the position, really does need a QB like him to develop and is making reasonable personnel moves under a new decision-maker. And whether Smith succeeds or fails won't diminish that fact. That Week 7 reminder will be helpful to understand why.
    Please stop with draft board poker, Isik's first 2 moves a QB who is hurt and then retires and rb who is a criminal, Geno is going to be a huge bust.

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