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Thread: Cowboys Draft Board Leaked

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFCEastFan View Post
    Not sure about this -- it only takes one team to screw up a "smart" team's plans. If you truly think you have the next Tom Brady, you'd better take him in Round 1.

    Can't think of a good NFL example off the top of my head, but one NBA example is when the Sonics drafted Shawn Kemp in the 1st round in the late 80's. At that time, NOBODY was drafting high school players in the 1st round, especially ones who had some off-court baggage and were not even the #1 player in the nation.

    The Sonics could have easily traded back into the second round and still gotten Kemp. But why chance it? If you think the guy is going to be a multiple-time NBA all-star, you draft him with your first pick and that's that. Same goes for the NFL, IMO.
    lol shawn kemp ? Why didn't seahawks draft russel Wilson in the 1st round ? because they didn't have to... They wanted him whole time, and knew he was going to compete for job right off the bat.. Carrol didn't even give Flynn 1 game to start, they didn't care he was making all that $$$.. I agree if the bills like Manuel fine take him earlier than expected, but all the mocks had him going in 3rd or 4th that I saw, Sure could have taken him in 2nd, and still picked a stud in 1st.. We heard the talk of Jets possibly trading up for geno in 2nd but I believe they realized they didn't have to.. Bills are committed to Manuel for 4 years now.. If they had picked him in the 2nd, his salary wouldn't be that high. So if they have a even more terrible year than they normally do and are in a position to draft a stud qb, they may now pass.. Why I like the Jets picking Geno in the 2nd not the 1st..

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cleansweep2013 View Post
    lol shawn kemp ? Why didn't seahawks draft russel Wilson in the 1st round ? because they didn't have to... They wanted him whole time, and knew he was going to compete for job right off the bat.. Carrol didn't even give Flynn 1 game to start, they didn't care he was making all that $$$.. I agree if the bills like Manuel fine take him earlier than expected, but all the mocks had him going in 3rd or 4th that I saw, Sure could have taken him in 2nd, and still picked a stud in 1st.. We heard the talk of Jets possibly trading up for geno in 2nd but I believe they realized they didn't have to.. Bills are committed to Manuel for 4 years now.. If they had picked him in the 2nd, his salary wouldn't be that high. So if they have a even more terrible year than they normally do and are in a position to draft a stud qb, they may now pass.. Why I like the Jets picking Geno in the 2nd not the 1st..
    They didn't know Wilson would be that good. If anyone did he would have never made it past pick number 3.

  3. #23
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    Didn't want either in the 1st ... But I actually liked EJ as a prospect a little more than Gino ... Hope they prove me wrong!

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Digetydog View Post
    Lets say you have identified the next Tom Brady. You are sure he is The Guy!
    1) do you draft him the first chance that you get; or
    2) do you draft him based upon when you expect him to go?

    I submit that smart teams are good at evaluating when to draft "their guy." The Bills aren't that team. Manuel wasn't going in the 1st round to any other team. Picking him that early was stupid.

    Geno may or may not turn into "The Guy." But, the Jets didn't draft him before they had to.
    The thing is the Bills FO obviously felt like they saw something in Manuel to draft him that high, and considering they obviously hold their own evaluation skills in high esteem it's clear they were afraid someone else saw something in him as well. Usually when a team drafts a guy out of left field you start to hear the grumblings afterwards if they were right or not. Bruce Irvin last year was a good example. Even though most felt he was a reach by SEA, you immediately started hearing reports that he was on other teams radars as well. I haven't heard any other team or rumor anywhere that hinted that other teams were interested in Manuel anywhere near the first round. So are the Bills truly geniuses or is this more of the same from them?

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFCEastFan View Post
    Not sure about this -- it only takes one team to screw up a "smart" team's plans. If you truly think you have the next Tom Brady, you'd better take him in Round 1.

    Can't think of a good NFL example off the top of my head, but one NBA example is when the Sonics drafted Shawn Kemp in the 1st round in the late 80's. At that time, NOBODY was drafting high school players in the 1st round, especially ones who had some off-court baggage and were not even the #1 player in the nation.

    The Sonics could have easily traded back into the second round and still gotten Kemp. But why chance it? If you think the guy is going to be a multiple-time NBA all-star, you draft him with your first pick and that's that. Same goes for the NFL, IMO.
    The reality is it's always a blend of risk-reward, in both directions.

    The risk of waiting is you might lose the player. The reward of waiting is the opportunity to draft two highly rated players for the price of one.

    The risk of grabbing early is that you are all but guaranteed to lose out on another highly rated player. The reward of grabbing early is you are guaranteed to take the player you have ranked the highest.

    Let's assume the rest of the NFL shared Dallas' evaluation of Dobson, who the Pats drafted in Rd 2. That means the Pats could have grabbed Robert Alford, Blidi-Wreh Wilson, or some other 2/3 round talent at CB they had ranked ahead of Ryan Logan, and still landed Dobson in round 3. On the other hand, the risk was another team liking Dobson enough to take him before the Pats pick in the third.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFCEastFan View Post
    Not sure about this -- it only takes one team to screw up a "smart" team's plans. If you truly think you have the next Tom Brady, you'd better take him in Round 1.

    Can't think of a good NFL example off the top of my head, but one NBA example is when the Sonics drafted Shawn Kemp in the 1st round in the late 80's. At that time, NOBODY was drafting high school players in the 1st round, especially ones who had some off-court baggage and were not even the #1 player in the nation.

    The Sonics could have easily traded back into the second round and still gotten Kemp. But why chance it? If you think the guy is going to be a multiple-time NBA all-star, you draft him with your first pick and that's that. Same goes for the NFL, IMO.
    That's actually pretty funny, coming from a Pats fan. You just described the textbook example of a draft reach.

    The Pats spend weeks figuring out how NOT to reach.

    If you can find the next Tom Brady, he will likely be a guy that is infuriated that he got picked low, play with a chip on his shoulder because of it, and remind his coach of his draft position.

    And play angry.

    Do you even understand how Brady became who he is?

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geothermal View Post
    That's actually pretty funny, coming from a Pats fan. You just described the textbook example of a draft reach.

    The Pats spend weeks figuring out how NOT to reach.

    If you can find the next Tom Brady, he will likely be a guy that is infuriated that he got picked low, play with a chip on his shoulder because of it, and remind his coach of his draft position.

    And play angry.

    Do you even understand how Brady became who he is?
    Actually the Pats often "reach" for guys they like. The Pats attitude is often take a guy who is good and a fit, regardless of if he's a "reach", it's not worth waiting half a round to see if you get a guy with a "chip". Brady is obviously an incredibly extreme example.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geothermal View Post
    That's actually pretty funny, coming from a Pats fan. You just described the textbook example of a draft reach.

    The Pats spend weeks figuring out how NOT to reach.

    If you can find the next Tom Brady, he will likely be a guy that is infuriated that he got picked low, play with a chip on his shoulder because of it, and remind his coach of his draft position.

    And play angry.

    Do you even understand how Brady became who he is?
    Deion Branch, Bethel Johnson, Logan Mankins, Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon, among others, confirm that the Patriots don't care one bit about reaches. They draft the guys they want, when they want.

    LOL at "play angry". So Tom Brady would have been Billy Joe Hobert if he had been drafted in Round 1? I disagree.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carlton View Post
    Sean Kemp as your chosen example, while relevant, was a curveball.
    I know, I know. Don't know why I came up with such a random example. The Sonics don't even exist anymore.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFCEastFan View Post
    Deion Branch, Bethel Johnson, Logan Mankins, Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon, among others, confirm that the Patriots don't care one bit about reaches. They draft the guys they want, when they want.

    LOL at "play angry". So Tom Brady would have been Billy Joe Hobert if he had been drafted in Round 1? I disagree.
    Taking a guy high on your board isn't a reach, it just means that draftniks don't know your needs. Taking a guy who doesn't deserve the draft spot because you are desperately trying to fill a need is.

    You don't understand what a reach is.

    As far as the Brady to Hobert comparison... that's definitely a reach.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geothermal View Post
    Taking a guy high on your board isn't a reach, it just means that draftniks don't know your needs. Taking a guy who doesn't deserve the draft spot because you are desperately trying to fill a need is.

    You don't understand what a reach is.

    As far as the Brady to Hobert comparison... that's definitely a reach.

    So as long as a team goes BPA based on their board (even if their board is complete garbage), it is impossible for them to reach. Thanks for enlightening me.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFCEastFan View Post
    So as long as a team goes BPA based on their board (even if their board is complete garbage), it is impossible for them to reach. Thanks for enlightening me.
    Don't shoot the messenger.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFCEastFan View Post
    So as long as a team goes BPA based on their board (even if their board is complete garbage), it is impossible for them to reach. Thanks for enlightening me.
    This is going back to 1989 (I'm sure there are far more modern examples), but the Jets drafted Jeff Lagaman 14th, it was widly considered a terrible reach, and an awful pick, but he actually turned out to be pretty good, Obviously the Jets board was different than most. Similarly, the world mocked Hoston for taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, but perhaps their board was right.

    Despite what the media/pundits would have you believe. THere really isn't a "consensus board". Some players are near the top of every board, but once you get past the top 5 even, different scouts (and groups of scouts) see very different things. I'm not sure that Ken O'Brien was on anyone's radar in 1983 other than the Jets (Though, the 30 for 30 implies that the Dolphins were looking at him, too). But while they missed on Marino, I think it's safe to argue that O'Brien was a worthy pick for the end of the first round, even if he wasn't rated as high by other teams (never mind a personal theory that O'Brien was similar to Carson Palmer, on his way to great things before an injury derailed his career).

    I would love to see a documentary or NFL films project that looks at a bunch of teams (5+) preparing for the NFL draft, but not until 4 years after the draft. I wouldn't be surprised too see different players rated anywhere from 1st - 7th round depending on team. We've heard stories of various QBs in this drafted being all over the place. Is it really so hard to imagine a 2nd team having EJ Manuel rated in the first round/early 2nd round?

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Batmans A Scientist View Post
    This is going back to 1989 (I'm sure there are far more modern examples), but the Jets drafted Jeff Lagaman 14th, it was widly considered a terrible reach, and an awful pick, but he actually turned out to be pretty good, Obviously the Jets board was different than most. Similarly, the world mocked Hoston for taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, but perhaps their board was right.

    Despite what the media/pundits would have you believe. THere really isn't a "consensus board". Some players are near the top of every board, but once you get past the top 5 even, different scouts (and groups of scouts) see very different things. I'm not sure that Ken O'Brien was on anyone's radar in 1983 other than the Jets (Though, the 30 for 30 implies that the Dolphins were looking at him, too). But while they missed on Marino, I think it's safe to argue that O'Brien was a worthy pick for the end of the first round, even if he wasn't rated as high by other teams (never mind a personal theory that O'Brien was similar to Carson Palmer, on his way to great things before an injury derailed his career).

    I would love to see a documentary or NFL films project that looks at a bunch of teams (5+) preparing for the NFL draft, but not until 4 years after the draft. I wouldn't be surprised too see different players rated anywhere from 1st - 7th round depending on team. We've heard stories of various QBs in this drafted being all over the place. Is it really so hard to imagine a 2nd team having EJ Manuel rated in the first round/early 2nd round?
    Agreed. All this goes back to the point that you should take who you want, when you want, and not worry about whether the guy you are about to draft in round 2 is only a 6th round pick on every other team's board.

    Other recent high-profile "reaches" that I can think of are Tyson Alualu, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Tyson Jackson and Chris Johnson. Sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't, much like any other pick.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFCEastFan View Post
    Agreed. All this goes back to the point that you should take who you want, when you want, and not worry about whether the guy you are about to draft in round 2 is only a 6th round pick on every other team's board.

    Other recent high-profile "reaches" that I can think of are Tyson Alualu, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Tyson Jackson and Chris Johnson. Sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't, much like any other pick.
    To paraphrase Mel Kiper: you obviously do not understand how the draft works.

    The entire point of having seven rounds is to stockpile as much talent as possible. While picking your BPA might seem like the way to accomplish that, it is not. You must understand how to use multiple picks to get the best combination of players available.

    Lets say that you have the 5th and 7th pick. You rate player A as better than Player B. But, you want both. If you think that player A will not get picked 6th, you should consider picking B first.

    Factors: how sure are you that A wont get picked? Do you have a good option if A is picked? How much better is A than B? Is C a big falloff?

    Smart teams work to get both A and B.

    Dumb teams blindly pick A and lose B to the sixth pick. They always get stuck with C.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Digetydog View Post
    To paraphrase Mel Kiper: you obviously do not understand how the draft works.

    The entire point of having seven rounds is to stockpile as much talent as possible. While picking your BPA might seem like the way to accomplish that, it is not. You must understand how to use multiple picks to get the best combination of players available.

    Lets say that you have the 5th and 7th pick. You rate player A as better than Player B. But, you want both. If you think that player A will not get picked 6th, you should consider picking B first.

    Factors: how sure are you that A wont get picked? Do you have a good option if A is picked? How much better is A than B? Is C a big falloff?

    Smart teams work to get both A and B.

    Dumb teams blindly pick A and lose B to the sixth pick. They always get stuck with C.
    I understand this perfectly. Recall that you started this whole discussion using Tom Brady as an example. If you truly think you have identified the next Tom Brady, you take him as soon as you can. You don't risk playing the A, B, C game you describe.

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