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Thread: Report: Jets "toying" with using Geno to change pace.

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by JetsNeedNewton View Post
    So at the end of the day it all goes back to the original comment: The historical odds of any drafted QB to be successful are less than 50%.

    IMHO a lot of the Geno enthusiasm here is more "anything rather than Sanchez" than truly being enamored with Geno's history and skills.
    True, and where a QB is drafted has absolutely no bearing on how he performs on the field. If anything being passed over may provide some sort of chip on his shoulder that may fuel some added passion. At the end of the day though it really doesnt matter if Geno was taken #1, #13, #30 or #250, Geno will succeed based on his ability, not where he was drafted.

  2. #202
    Quote Originally Posted by JetsNeedNewton View Post
    So at the end of the day it all goes back to the original comment: The historical odds of any drafted QB to be successful are less than 50%.

    IMHO a lot of the Geno enthusiasm here is more "anything rather than Sanchez" than truly being enamored with Geno's history and skills.
    True, and I'm the first to admit that's a possibility with me. Maybe I'm being a little biased because i just want believe a franchise QB dropped in our laps.

    I'm just trying to be positive for a change.

  3. #203
    Quote Originally Posted by sec.101row23 View Post
    True, and where a QB is drafted has absolutely no bearing on how he performs on the field. If anything being passed over may provide some sort of chip on his shoulder that may fuel some added passion. At the end of the day though it really doesnt matter if Geno was taken #1, #13, #30 or #250, Geno will succeed based on his ability, not where he was drafted.
    You are right . At the end of the day, Geno will succeed based on his ability not draft position. Where you are drafted has no bearing how you perform.

    However, what history tells us is that where you are drafted is a predictor of the likelihood of success. QBs drafted in the 1st round are more likely to perform better than QBs drafted in later round. It does not mean all 1st rd QBs will be stars or all 4th round QBs will suck. Its about likelihoods. Not absolutes. Yes Brady is HOF QB drafted in the 6th RD. The vast majority of QBs drafted in the 6th round will not become a starter in this league. Doesnt mean they can not because of draft position, just means they are not likely. Same can be said about other positions

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by JetsNeedNewton View Post
    So at the end of the day it all goes back to the original comment: The historical odds of any drafted QB to be successful are less than 50%.

    IMHO a lot of the Geno enthusiasm here is more "anything rather than Sanchez" than truly being enamored with Geno's history and skills.
    No, the reality is that yes Geno, using this list as a guide, has a 50% chanced.

    Sanchez has a % in the middle of slim and nil.

  5. #205
    Quote Originally Posted by Jet Nut View Post
    No, the reality is that yes Geno, using this list as a guide, has a 50% chanced.

    Sanchez has a % in the middle of slim and nil.
    How did you come up with Geno having a 50% chance using the list?
    Based on the lists, QBs taken in the 1st round since 1992 had a 45% chance of succeeding and those taken in the 2nd round since 1992 had a 13% chance.

    Geno has a chance. If history tells us anything its that the odds are stacked high against him but still he has a chance.

  6. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    You are right . At the end of the day, Geno will succeed based on his ability not draft position. Where you are drafted has no bearing how you perform.

    However, what history tells us is that where you are drafted is a predictor of the likelihood of success. QBs drafted in the 1st round are more likely to perform better than QBs drafted in later round. It does not mean all 1st rd QBs will be stars or all 4th round QBs will suck. Its about likelihoods. Not absolutes. Yes Brady is HOF QB drafted in the 6th RD. The vast majority of QBs drafted in the 6th round will not become a starter in this league. Doesnt mean they can not because of draft position, just means they are not likely. Same can be said about other positions
    Give it up already.

  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    Give it up already.
    + a million

    I wonder if this loosar has ever read one of those mutual fund prospectus things where it says in huge bold letters


    PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS

    final comment


    Mark Sanchez was the #5 pick in the first round, right up there with Jamarcus Russell, Tim Couch, David Carr and Ryan Leaf


    all MASSIVE busts

    I'll take my chances with Geno Smith of the second round, thank you

  8. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    How did you come up with Geno having a 50% chance using the list?
    Based on the lists, QBs taken in the 1st round since 1992 had a 45% chance of succeeding and those taken in the 2nd round since 1992 had a 13% chance.

    Geno has a chance. If history tells us anything its that the odds are stacked high against him but still he has a chance.
    By using the person I responded to numbers?

    And using the point that no matter what the odds are they're better than Sanchez's chances?

    It really helps to read before thinking there's a reason to convince someone to rethink their point. You're lost

  9. #209
    There is a 50/50 chance Geno will succeed... well there's only a 10% chance of that

  10. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jet Nut View Post
    No, the reality is that yes Geno, using this list as a guide, has a 50% chanced.

    Sanchez has a % in the middle of slim and nil.
    So he has a chance??

  11. #211
    Quote Originally Posted by Savage69 View Post
    So he has a chance??
    more like one in a million!

  12. #212
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    Give it up already.
    Give what up? The fact that it is true that the percentage of QBs taken in the first round is significantly higher than those taken in rounds 2-7. Why cant you accept the truth and admit you are wrong. Numbers dont lie.

  13. #213
    Quote Originally Posted by Jet Nut View Post
    By using the person I responded to numbers?

    And using the point that no matter what the odds are they're better than Sanchez's chances?

    It really helps to read before thinking there's a reason to convince someone to rethink their point. You're lost
    I think you should re-read your post.

    No, the reality is that yes Geno, using this list as a guide, has a 50% chanced.
    Your statement that BASED ON THE LIST AS A GUIDE Geno has a 50% chance is incorrect.

    I think you should read the list before you make an inaccurate statement

  14. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    Give what up? The fact that it is true that the percentage of QBs taken in the first round is significantly higher than those taken in rounds 2-7. Why cant you accept the truth and admit you are wrong. Numbers dont lie.
    There's no difference between round one and two. #1 for sure. Even top 10 I'll give you a slight advantage. After that, absolutely no difference, but you keep plugging away like there's some magic to it. Just admit you're wrong, and move on. No one will think any less of you.

  15. #215
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    There's no difference between round one and two. #1 for sure. Even top 10 I'll give you a slight advantage. After that, absolutely no difference, but you keep plugging away like there's some magic to it. Just admit you're wrong, and move on. No one will think any less of you.
    Round 1 includes picks 1-15. There are 32 picks in round 1. You cand just eliminate picks 1-15 when you are comparing rounds. So yes when comparing Rounds 1 and 2 there is a difference. Just like there is a difference between round 2 and 3. Stop it. Please just stop it.

  16. #216
    Quote Originally Posted by augustiniak View Post
    more like one in a million!
    Still better odds then Sanchez ever even being a viable BU.

  17. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    Round 1 includes picks 1-15. There are 32 picks in round 1. You cand just eliminate picks 1-15 when you are comparing rounds. So yes when comparing Rounds 1 and 2 there is a difference. Just like there is a difference between round 2 and 3. Stop it. Please just stop it.
    I'll politely ask again....what it it really about Smith that you hate. It's not football because your two attempts at pretend "analysis"...the round 2 argument and the recent football flaws argument have been refuted, derided and found to be laughably incorrect.

  18. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    I think you should re-read your post.



    Your statement that BASED ON THE LIST AS A GUIDE Geno has a 50% chance is incorrect.

    I think you should read the list before you make an inaccurate statement
    Yes, IF you base it solely on a list.

    Its not even the point. Real S L O W, any chance is higher than Sanchez. Sh1t, this isn't that hard.

  19. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    Round 1 includes picks 1-15. There are 32 picks in round 1. You cand just eliminate picks 1-15 when you are comparing rounds. So yes when comparing Rounds 1 and 2 there is a difference. Just like there is a difference between round 2 and 3. Stop it. Please just stop it.
    Explain the difference, in real life relevance. You have a certain # of elite players in every draft, and then you have the rest. Elite QBs go #1, or in some cases like last year 1,2. The difference in draft board grade from, usually around pick 10 to pick 40, is minimal. This year it was well known to be so, and even further toward the 3rd round. If you remove the #1, and #2 overall picks from your list the success % will be equivalent to the 2nd round QBs. The difference between pick 32, and pick 33 is nothing, but semantics, That's just pathetically obvious, and you just can't let it go. I tried, I really did. I guess I gave you too much credit. You're not ignorant, or a troll. I believe you really just cannot understand simple logic.

    Btw...now everyone will think less of you. You missed your bus.
    Last edited by NY's stepchild; 07-17-2013 at 07:44 PM.

  20. #220
    Let's sign Rex to a long term deal and just take suck to a whole new level forever.

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