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Thread: BR: Root Cause of Geno Dropping and QBs

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    BR: Root Cause of Geno Dropping and QBs

    This is a post that I wrote for another forum, but figured might as well discuss it here. I heard the JetsInsider podcast today, and I can't understand why picking Geno in the second round was a mistake. And I think part of the problem is the negativity that is attached with dropping to the second round.

    Again, this is my post from TGG, but I'll put it in quotes, so you can distinguish my thoughts then and now.

    Since this is more or less about all of the QBs in the draft, figured it didn't need to get buried in the Geno thread. From Bleacher Report (Btw, did they merge with some major media company? They were crap like a year ago, I remember not even bothering to click on links to their site, because their writing was some of the worst out there. But nowadays, they seem to have a lot of coverage, their app is very useful, and even saw like a TV ad for them, lol).

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...2013-nfl-draft

    It was a case, where the teams that had inept QBs were tied to first round picks in the last two years, and thus reluctant to give up on those guys. Also about natural supply and demand as well. How last year's QB run, filled a lot of teams with QBs (some promising, some not so much) that the demand just wasn't there.

    Also, the teams that could have picked say Geno Smith or EJ Manuel may have overplayed their hand.

    Let's examine the teams that had a shot at picking a QB in this draft as a matter of need, rather than luxury.

    The Kansas City Chiefs: They made the trade for Alex Smith, while Geno Smith was almost certain to be picked in the top ten of the draft. At that time, there were rumors that Nassib might be gone in there as well. They probably didn't rate Geno as the No. 1 player in this year's draft, and saw value in waiting. They traded their second for Alex Smith. Now that's a team that does have some holes, so it's not wise for them to now waste their first two picks on a QB in this draft. They passed. They only had one pick (The No. 1 overall) before Geno was off the board.

    The Jacksonville Jaguars: This is one of the teams mentioned in the article, about how they are just 2 years into a first round QB. It's admitting a colossal mistake to give up on a top 10 pick after two years. They are also admitting to the fact that the team he has taken over is devoid of talent, hence why they have drafted a WR and an OL with top ten picks the next two years. I mean, Sanchez in year 4, and we have people getting a heart attack as soon as you mention that it might be time to move on. This is most likely the make or break year for them. They picked twice before Geno was off the board.

    Philadelphia Eagles: One of the most rumored places for Geno Smith or EJ Manuel to go. However, they already have a QB that they are paying dearly for in Vick. A 3rd round pick in Foles as well. And they acquired Taylor from Baltimore too I believe because he was a stud at Oregon. Adding a first round QB there just might not have been worth the money. They needed help on the offensive line big time, because last year they were really hurting to protect Vick. And adding the TE helps as well to protect the QB. They obviously think Vick will thrive, otherwise they wouldn't have brought him back at the salary that he is making. Barkley makes perfect sense as a backup QB. It's the same idea as the Ryan Mallet pick by the Pats in the past. They picked twice, but again, understandable why they passed on QBs in the first three rounds.

    Cleavland Browns: Invested first round pick in a QB last year, and lost their 2nd round pick to find a WR for that said QB. Weeden had an up and down year. There were a couple of games where he looked very good, some duds. But pretty much anyone of significance on their offense was a rookie or second year player last year, so it makes perfect sense for them to wait one more year atleast and see if things gel. They picked once before any QB was gone.

    Arizona Cardinals: This is the one team that had a legitimate need for a QB and the one that most blatantly passed on a QB. They traded for Palmer, and gave him what is essentially a 2 year 16 million contract, with an opt out clause after year 1. However, this could also be their thinking that, they need OL help as much as any team in the league. Last year, their QBs were getting killed and it wouldn't matter who they picked, if they couldn't protect them. So they most likely saw Palmer as a stopgap until they can fix the OL problems, and then try to get a QB. They only picked once before Geno was gone, and they addressed OL with that pick. Remember, they also made that trade when these QBs were projected to go in the top ten, so they already showed their hand by the time the draft rolled around.

    Oakland Raiders: They traded for Matt Flynn, with his money involved, they were heavily invested in at the QB position as well. Also having Pryor there as a backup QB that seemed atleast passable last year influences them to wait. Another team that had major holes elsewhere, so it wasn't wise for them to invest that much money into Flynn, and then invest money into a first round QB. They also made the Flynn deal when the QBs were supposed to go in the top 10.

    Buffalo Bills: The one team that picked a QB, when in need of a QB, and passed on Geno. A pure projection pick, and to be honest, these two guys are pretty close together. I remember liking Manuel as a possible second round pick or third round pick early in the draft process, but he obviously moved up. His physical talent is better than Geno, IMO. It's really the mental aspect that is a problem. I watched a bunch of tapes of him back when I thought we might take a shot on him, and he never stood out as an elite guy on the field. His team was superior than most of the teams they faced in terms of talent, but he never looked like he was setting the scoreboard on fire or was unstoppable. It also didn't help that people covering FSU think he was incredibly limited on the field as to what he could run, and that they really simplified it out there for him. They also mentioned that, he stopped running the read option after injuring his shoulder, and that his effectiveness decreased exponentially after the injury in regards to the read option. But the guy has the highest potential in the draft, so I can't blame them for picking him. He just has a high bust potential as well, IMO. Also, the Bills traded for Kolb, and I don't think they pick a QB if they stayed at 8. I think they address other needs at 8, but once all the QBs made it to them, they knew they would get a shot at Manuel or Geno at 16, and getting the second to address that need pushed it over the edge. I read that they were afraid to trade back from 16 because of the fear that some other team might trade back into the late first and pick off the QB, a sign that they feared other teams valued these QBs somewhat high as well. In retrospect, they could've waited. But still a good pick for them, IMO. Have to get an elite QB to compete, so might as well take the shot with Manuel.

    So this wasn't like, teams were avoiding these guys like the plague. A good number of them had their arms tied because of first round picks in the last two years. Or, they overplayed their hands when these QBs were projected to be top ten, and invested either a high pick or a good amount of money into veteran guys. It makes sense for them to then not pick a QB high, because otherwise it looks like an idiotic move to sign or trade for someone to be your starter and then pick a QB high. And it payed off for the teams that waited it out like the Bills and Jets for a change.
    I think it ended up becoming a perfect storm type of event where teams thought QBs would go earlier, and went in different directions, only to have the pendulum swing enough to make these QBs a bargain. I just don't understand the dislike for Geno pick, because as long as he doesn't fall on his face, Geno should still have 2nd rd- 3rd value. I heard the Pats were asking for like a 2nd-3rd rd pick for Mallet, and he hasn't done anything yet.

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    So if Luck, RG3, Newton or the other first rounders of recent times were there these teams would still have passed? Those that picked up QBs before the draft had obviously evaluated the class and decided to go elsewhere. Nice try but a hellava stretch...

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    Quote Originally Posted by JetsNeedNewton View Post
    So if Luck, RG3, Newton or the other first rounders of recent times were there these teams would still have passed? Those that picked up QBs before the draft had obviously evaluated the class and decided to go elsewhere. Nice try but a hellava stretch...
    Luck and RG3 wouldn't have dropped in pretty much any draft class, but no one from this class or the class before is on their level.

    But Tannehill, Locker, and Ponder would've dropped. I think the QB needy teams were too far high in this draft to pick up a QB, when they could wait, because there were talks about Geno, Nassib, and Manuel all going in the first round. And teams most likely said, they are a much better value in the second, but most likely won't make it there, so we don't want to get stuck with nothing. Because getting stuck with nothing is what forced us to Sanchez in 2009 and we had to trade up for that. There wasn't a surefire QB in this draft, but I do believe Geno is a first round talent for sure.

    Which leads me to this. If you do a comparison between Geno and Sanchez, coming out of college, where does Sanchez have Geno beat? Lesser arm, lesser physical skills, less accuracy, yet one guy went at 5, and the other dropped? Besides playing in a pro system, there was nothing that Sanchez really had that would be better than Geno at this point, when coming out of college.

    It's also a byproduct of having to sign FA before the draft, so a lot of teams already invested in their teams with veterans by then. It also helps, that next year's QB class is better, but as with Newton being picked No. 1, if Geno fails this year, we can still take another QB next year in the first round. For where he was projected to go, at such an important position, and a position of need, I think it was great that Geno dropped to us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win4ever View Post
    Which leads me to this. If you do a comparison between Geno and Sanchez, coming out of college, where does Sanchez have Geno beat? Lesser arm, lesser physical skills, less accuracy, yet one guy went at 5, and the other dropped?

    It's also a byproduct of having to sign FA before the draft, so a lot of teams already invested in their teams with veterans by then. It also helps, that next year's QB class is better, but as with Newton being picked No. 1, if Geno fails this year, we can still take another QB next year in the first round. For where he was projected to go, at such an important position, and a position of need, I think it was great that Geno dropped to us.
    We don't really know that yet, even with the worst QB in the league.

    Hope is eternal, and it doesn't sound like Geno will start this year. I'm really tired of waiting til next year. I don't care if we go 1-15, Mountaneer or bust.

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    TGG ****ing sucks. Bunch of Nazi mods over there that find any reason at all to ban you. **** them all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win4ever View Post
    This is a post that I wrote for another forum, but figured might as well discuss it here. I heard the JetsInsider podcast today, and I can't understand why picking Geno in the second round was a mistake. And I think part of the problem is the negativity that is attached with dropping to the second round.

    Again, this is my post from TGG, but I'll put it in quotes, so you can distinguish my thoughts then and now.



    I think it ended up becoming a perfect storm type of event where teams thought QBs would go earlier, and went in different directions, only to have the pendulum swing enough to make these QBs a bargain. I just don't understand the dislike for Geno pick, because as long as he doesn't fall on his face, Geno should still have 2nd rd- 3rd value. I heard the Pats were asking for like a 2nd-3rd rd pick for Mallet, and he hasn't done anything yet.
    We have many Suckchez fans here . They hate every QB mentioned for the Jets! They'd hate Andrew Luck if he was available to us!

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    Consensus was before the draft that if Geno got past the Bills @ 16 that he could plummet and that is exactly what happened. Teams in the bottom half of the first round draft usually have an average-to-excellent QB situation.

    Historically teams have "reached" for QBs b.c of the importance of the position. Just so happens that many teams at the top of the first round did not feel that he was worth picking in that spot. Geno is by no means a can't miss prospect. Scouts were concerned with the system he played in and if his skills could translate. He racked up a ton of yardage and TDs on relatively easy throws and was not nearly as accurate when throwing down the field. Also, he had a pretty rough second half to his senior season and a dismal bowl game performance in bad weather.

    Basically Geno got picked where he should have gotten picked. I heard plenty of scouts and analysts give him a 2nd or 3rd round grade. If he plays well and becomes our franchise QB nobody is going to care where he was picked. If he doesn't, all we did was take a chance with a 2nd round pick and I can't fault the Jets for doing that. We need a QB and I am one of the fans that advocate drafting one every single year until we find one.

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    I think there were 2 factors in the Geno fall.
    I agree with everything you wrote, plus I believe because Luck & RG3 were such studs the year before, their outrageous talent made Geno look much worse in comparison.
    I mean look at what Luck did last year! Look at RG3!
    Those guys are what top draft picks look like, not Sanchez at 5.

    Plus the only reason why we are having this discussion at all on a 2nd round flyer on a QB that played quite well on a team with a bad Oline & horrific defense, ( this wasn't Sanchez at USC), and did it for 4 years, not 16 games, is because its THE NYJETS that drafted him!!!!!!
    Come on people!
    Are you telling me that if the Jags or KC, or the Browns came out of this draft with Milliner, Richardson & Geno Smith in the 2nd it wouldn't have lauded as
    A 2013 greatest heist in the draft?
    Hating on the Jets is a sport! It's news folks when Cimini has another bad thing to report.
    Any other team in the NFL gets Geno where the Jets did in the 2nd round & it's a stroke of wonderful luck.
    All those knob jobs over at ESPN would have been giving them AAA for being so clever to get top players at their position, AND Geno in the 2nd!
    It's the NY Jets stupid

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    Quote Originally Posted by JetsNeedNewton View Post
    So if Luck, RG3, Newton or the other first rounders of recent times were there these teams would still have passed? Those that picked up QBs before the draft had obviously evaluated the class and decided to go elsewhere. Nice try but a hellava stretch...
    No one ever said Geno was an elite prospect. The guys you mention would be worth 2 #1 picks. Geno is a mid to late first round talent, based on the fact that he's a little short, and hasn't run a pro style offense.

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    EJ Manuel will be an idiotic selection if he doesn't pan out. Not the case with Geno.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win4ever View Post
    Luck and RG3 wouldn't have dropped in pretty much any draft class, but no one from this class or the class before is on their level.

    But Tannehill, Locker, and Ponder would've dropped. I think the QB needy teams were too far high in this draft to pick up a QB, when they could wait, because there were talks about Geno, Nassib, and Manuel all going in the first round. And teams most likely said, they are a much better value in the second, but most likely won't make it there, so we don't want to get stuck with nothing. Because getting stuck with nothing is what forced us to Sanchez in 2009 and we had to trade up for that. There wasn't a surefire QB in this draft, but I do believe Geno is a first round talent for sure.

    Which leads me to this. If you do a comparison between Geno and Sanchez, coming out of college, where does Sanchez have Geno beat? Lesser arm, lesser physical skills, less accuracy, yet one guy went at 5, and the other dropped? Besides playing in a pro system, there was nothing that Sanchez really had that would be better than Geno at this point, when coming out of college.

    It's also a byproduct of having to sign FA before the draft, so a lot of teams already invested in their teams with veterans by then. It also helps, that next year's QB class is better, but as with Newton being picked No. 1, if Geno fails this year, we can still take another QB next year in the first round. For where he was projected to go, at such an important position, and a position of need, I think it was great that Geno dropped to us.
    Thats actually a big deal. Especially when he was throwing to two receivers who also were drafted (one in the top 10)

    The other question is who did Geno actually beat last year? I mean besides a 9-4 Texas team his wins came against powerhouses like Marshall, James Madison, Maryland, 1-11 Kansas, Iowa State and Baylor and then played terribly in the Bowl game against a very average Syracuse team

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    The fact teams passes on Geno I dont believe had anything to do with his talent level. He had a questionable attitude going into the draft and reports where his interviews did not go well. Rumors where also he wasnt liked in his own locker room. Teams want a QB that will be dedicated to the team and I just dont think GMs saw that in Geno. We have seen QBs drop for stuff like that before no one wants to have anther Vince Young on there hands. In the same perspective we have also seen guys like McNabb though. I dont think Geno will be that bad but yeah there is definitely a concern IMO. I really dont think his draft night tweets helped at all ether. His agent should have told him day one stay off tweeter and dont make any comments you dont want posted. He is just one of those foot in mouth guys. I have had people tell me that didnt have an effect but I cant see how it didnt when he was already on the bubble. You dont normally see that in a QB. All things aside he has shown he is trying and is maturing. Seems to be a lot of people tagged him for just a lot of little minor things. He has never had big issues. I really feel Barkley and Glennon falling was more confusing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    Thats actually a big deal. Especially when he was throwing to two receivers who also were drafted (one in the top 10)

    The other question is who did Geno actually beat last year? I mean besides a 9-4 Texas team his wins came against powerhouses like Marshall, James Madison, Maryland, 1-11 Kansas, Iowa State and Baylor and then played terribly in the Bowl game against a very average Syracuse team
    Still waiting for you to honestly admit the real reason you hate Geno Smith

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    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    Thats actually a big deal. Especially when he was throwing to two receivers who also were drafted (one in the top 10)

    The other question is who did Geno actually beat last year? I mean besides a 9-4 Texas team his wins came against powerhouses like Marshall, James Madison, Maryland, 1-11 Kansas, Iowa State and Baylor and then played terribly in the Bowl game against a very average Syracuse team
    Texas and Baylor where pretty huge wins. It is not his fault he spent 3 years in the big east playing weak teams. Why do I not hear this when people talk about Bridgewater? They also lost to Syracuse BTW and it wasnt in the snow.

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    The reason why Geno dropped and Sanchez didn't was because of how their teams did during the season. Geno's team tanked, lost like 4 or 5 in a row, and the Trojans went on to the Rose Bowl. Sanchez threw for 400+ yards and 5 TDs against a supposedly stout Penn State defense. Sanchez had a great pro day, and his leadership impressed a lot of people. Geno skipped the senior bowl.

    It doesn't make sense to blame this on other teams already having a quarterback. If they really wanted Geno, they wouldn't have wasted picks on guys like Alex Smith and Matt Flynn (who couldn't even beat a rookie in training camp). Hell, the Jets passed on him TWICE, and we needed a quarterback badly. He was and is a value pick, not someone we went after.

    Now, anything can happen at the pro level. Sanchez obviously isn't good enough. Hopefully Geno can be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sg3 View Post
    Still waiting for you to honestly admit the real reason you hate Geno Smith
    I dont hate him. I dont know the guy personally so how could I hate him.
    I just think he is not going to amount to much in the NFL. I hope im wrong.
    I also think we could have done a lot more with our 2nd round pick including trading down with a team that wanted Smith in order to acquire more picks to fill our many needs. The 2013 draft was very deep. We could have gotten more picks to fill needs at PLB, S, TE, WR. There was plenty of talent available there that was not as risky as Geno

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamers View Post
    Texas and Baylor where pretty huge wins. It is not his fault he spent 3 years in the big east playing weak teams. Why do I not hear this when people talk about Bridgewater? They also lost to Syracuse BTW and it wasnt in the snow.
    Texas (9-4/5-4 in Big 12)had a bad year and Baylor (8-5/4-5 in Big 12) is garbage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DDNYjets View Post
    Consensus was before the draft that if Geno got past the Bills @ 16 that he could plummet and that is exactly what happened. Teams in the bottom half of the first round draft usually have an average-to-excellent QB situation.

    Historically teams have "reached" for QBs b.c of the importance of the position. Just so happens that many teams at the top of the first round did not feel that he was worth picking in that spot. Geno is by no means a can't miss prospect. Scouts were concerned with the system he played in and if his skills could translate. He racked up a ton of yardage and TDs on relatively easy throws and was not nearly as accurate when throwing down the field. Also, he had a pretty rough second half to his senior season and a dismal bowl game performance in bad weather.

    Basically Geno got picked where he should have gotten picked. I heard plenty of scouts and analysts give him a 2nd or 3rd round grade. If he plays well and becomes our franchise QB nobody is going to care where he was picked. If he doesn't, all we did was take a chance with a 2nd round pick and I can't fault the Jets for doing that. We need a QB and I am one of the fans that advocate drafting one every single year until we find one.
    Who gave geno a 3rd round grade? Oh that's right nobody

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    Quote Originally Posted by cant wait View Post
    Who gave geno a 3rd round grade? Oh that's right nobody
    Did you watch ESPN or NFLN leading up to the draft?

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    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    I just think he is not going to amount to much in the NFL. I hope im wrong.
    I'm with you ... I hope I'm wrong but I don't think Geno has "it"

    Poor leadership qualities, the best wide receiver tandem in college football last year, gimmick offense, stats skewed towards short passes , poor accuracy on long passes - nothing suggests that he is going to be special.

    Manuel has accuracy issues but as a leader, he is perceived as dynamic, exciting and charasmatic. If Marrone can't fix his mechanics Manuel will bust but his up side is what made the Bills pull the trigger - John Gruden was enamoured with Manuel's intangibles, his energy, personality, leadership.

    Milke Glennon while immobile is the most accurate long ball qb in the class, he would have been my lottery pick at finding a qb in this year's draft class.
    Last edited by Gangrene; 07-18-2013 at 12:28 PM.

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