Enjoy an Ads-Free Jets Insider - Become a Jets Insider VIP!
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 28

Thread: KC Joyner via ESPN: Why the Jets Can Make the Playoffs

  1. #1
    Practice Squad
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    251
    Post Thanks / Like

    KC Joyner via ESPN: Why the Jets Can Make the Playoffs

    New York Jets fans have a long history of being jaded when it comes to good starts by their team. This is a natural side effect of seeing campaigns like the 1986 season (started 10-1, didn't win division, lost in AFC divisional playoffs), 2000 season (started 6-1, missed playoffs) and 2008 season (began 8-3 and arguably looked like the best team in the NFL, missed playoffs).

    That kind of track record is part of why Gang Green fans may be only cautiously optimistic about the team's 2-1 start in 2013. A rookie quarterback and a dismal recent history may be other reasons. But fans actually should be excited for their team's prospects. A detailed tape and metrics analysis indicates this team is building the foundation for a club that could be a postseason contender -- not just in the near future, but right now.

    This support starts with a defense that leads the league in yards per play (4.1) and has some incredible numbers against the run and the pass.

    There are many contenders for New York's most impressive defensive aerial stat -- the 6.0 overall yards per attempt, 7.2 vertical YPA (productivity on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and 6.4 stretch vertical YPA (production on attempts 20 or more yards downfield) being among the best of the bunch. For perspective, consider that these figures are appreciably better than the topflight numbers New York posted in these categories last year (6.5 overall YPA, ranked sixth; 8.7 VYPA, ranked second; 9.0 SVYPA, ranked third).

    As great as those numbers are, there are two important areas where the Jets pass defense can, and almost certainly will, get better at as the season progresses.

    First is Antonio Cromartie's coverage metrics. His 7.5 YPA allowed is a solid number but is appreciably higher than his 5.9 YPA in 2012 that ranked tied for ninth in the league. Cromartie still has shutdown cornerback capabilities and should be able to bring this metric back to its former level.

    Second is New York's 0.9 percent in the bad decision rate metric, which gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the defense. Rex Ryan doesn't build his game plan entirely around generating a high BDR the way Dom Capers does, but his defenses historically have been in the 2-2.5 percent mark at season's end. If this platoon's BDR moves up toward that level through the rest of the season and keeps its various YPA marks at or near their current levels, the Jets will be a strong contender for the best pass defense in the NFL.

    Their run defense is nearly as strong, as the Jets rank sixth in rushing yards allowed (79.7 per game) and third in rush yards per attempt (3.2). Two key factors are their marks in the good blocking rate and good blocking yards per attempt metrics.

    GBR measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking, which is roughly defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt. A 50 percent mark is a topflight total from an offensive perspective, a 45 percent mark is average, and anything below 40 percent is considered bad for an offense -- so the Jets defense's 37.6 percent GBR shows just how disruptive it is to opposing offensive lines. That's a nice feather in the defense's cap.

    GBYPA gauges how productive a runner is on plays with good blocking. Anything below the 6.0-yard mark is quite an achievement for a defense, and the Jets can currently boast a 5.8-yard total.

    [+] EnlargeStephen Hill
    Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports
    Stephen Hill has improved in his second season.
    These run defense showings are even more notable considering New York's first three games featured matchups against Doug Martin, Stevan Ridley and C.J. Spiller, three of the top running backs in the NFL today.

    Meanwhile, the Jets have taken a lot of grief for how they have dealt with their offensive passing game personnel over the past few years, but there are multiple signs indicating the offense is trending in the right direction.

    The first sign is the development of quarterback Geno Smith. His 331 passing yards last week were the second-most passing yards ever by a Jets rookie (Ken O'Brien with 351 in 1984).

    Smith did this in large part by bringing back the vertical game. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Smith has nine completions of at least 20 yards downfield in his last two games, completing at least four such passes in each. By contrast, former starter Mark Sanchez had one game with four completions of 20-plus yards downfield in his career.

    The rookie quarterback has combined this downfield passing prowess with superb decision-making. His 1.8 percent BDR is a huge improvement over Sanchez's 3.1 percent BDR last season (ranked tied for 35th) and, if Smith kept it in that area, would project as a top-10 mark by season's end. To be fair, Smith's numbers are through only three games, but he posted a 1.8 percent BDR at West Virginia last year, so he has a history of effectively protecting the ball.

    Wide receiver Stephen Hill has done a superb job of assisting Smith in the long pass department. Hill has notched a ridiculously high 20.4 VYPA on 10 targets and a 23.5 SVYPA on eight targets. This does not look to be an anomaly, since Hill posted excellent numbers in his senior collegiate season that led him to rank first in my analysis of the top 10 wide receivers in the 2012 NFL draft.

    He finished first among that group in YPA, height and 40-yard dash time and finished second in VYPA, all of which led to the article's conclusion that "there is every reason to think that Hill could be just as explosive as Georgia Tech predecessor Demaryius Thomas has been." That wasn't the case with Sanchez under center, but it seems to be so with Smith.

    Hill has had four vertical passes gain 30-plus yards this season, including one over each of New England's starting cornerbacks. The Jets' offensive issues dovetailed with letting their dominant vertical threat, Braylon Edwards, walk away a couple of seasons ago, but Hill could provide the same utility for this offense in the future.

    With this caliber of offensive and defensive weaponry, the Jets have a chance to make the postseason. New York does have a difficult schedule with its share of tough road battles (Atlanta, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Miami) and hard home matchups (New England, New Orleans, Miami), but if it wins three of those seven and four of its other games (at Tennessee, vs. Pittsburgh, at Buffalo, vs. Oakland, at Carolina, vs. Cleveland), that would equal nine wins. That is a victory total that may be good enough to make it to the postseason.

    Even if the Jets fall short of this year's playoffs, they seem to be building a foundation for playoff contention for the next few years.

  2. #2
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    7,067
    Post Thanks / Like
    3px81m.jpg

    Good lord, can we at least make it to the half way mark with all this talk. It's been 3 games people.

  3. #3
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Confederacy
    Posts
    10,746
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by MDL_JET View Post

    Good lord, can we at least make it to the half way mark with all this talk. It's been 3 games people.
    YES!!!

    Let's talk about how Rex Ryan should be fired at the Bye Week instead!

  4. #4
    Hall Of Fame
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Location
    Charleston, SC
    Posts
    12,185
    Post Thanks / Like
    Didn't listen to ESPN when they trashed us....surely won't listen when they try to get back on the RexWagon

  5. #5
    Practice Squad
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    251
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by JonEJet View Post
    Didn't listen to ESPN when they trashed us....surely won't listen when they try to get back on the RexWagon
    It's hilarious.

  6. #6
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    24,971
    Post Thanks / Like
    32 Power ranking to start the season - and now they're talking playoffs after week 3?

    ESPN is like the crazy hot cheerleader in high school. Gets all the attention because there's no one as hot as her, hates you one minute, ready to **** your brains out the second you seem cool. No brains whatsoever.

  7. #7
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Confederacy
    Posts
    10,746
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by bjetsb View Post
    It's hilarious.
    F*** Them... With a rusty spoon!

    I knew they would turn and start saying this shlt, but I never thought it would be so soon.

  8. #8
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Brooklyn, NY
    Posts
    2,373
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by JonEJet View Post
    Didn't listen to ESPN when they trashed us....surely won't listen when they try to get back on the RexWagon
    Do they realize how stupid they look with these articles??? For over a year they've bashed us and called us a glorified expansion team,
    now we're going to the playoffs. Shut up already!!!

  9. #9
    All League
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Posts
    3,628
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by bjetsb View Post
    New York Jets fans have a long history of being jaded when it comes to good starts by their team. This is a natural side effect of seeing campaigns like the 1986 season (started 10-1, didn't win division, lost in AFC divisional playoffs), 2000 season (started 6-1, missed playoffs) and 2008 season (began 8-3 and arguably looked like the best team in the NFL, missed playoffs).

    That kind of track record is part of why Gang Green fans may be only cautiously optimistic about the team's 2-1 start in 2013. A rookie quarterback and a dismal recent history may be other reasons. But fans actually should be excited for their team's prospects. A detailed tape and metrics analysis indicates this team is building the foundation for a club that could be a postseason contender -- not just in the near future, but right now..
    Stopped reading after that. Honestly, this person has no credibility and not worth my time after that. The Jets recent history is...

    two AFC championship games, one .500 season and one 6-10 season....That's actually a very good recent history, not just okay, not bad and certainly not dismal.

  10. #10
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    5,492
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman Harris View Post
    F*** Them... With a rusty spoon!

    I knew they would turn and start saying this shlt, but I never thought it would be so soon.
    God I effing hate ESPN
    Please lord, someone please start a sports channel ala how FOX network came along to compete with these morons.
    Berman & the whole bunch of them!
    Then, you have hope with the NFL network & they hire guys that are more moronic, guys like Heath Evans, @ Mark Kreigal, tried & true Jet haters that don't have an unbiased bone in their body.
    The only reason Heath changed his tune after going to Jets camp is because he's at least smart enough to know he would look like an idiot of Geno turned out to be better than expected with the awesome Dline he witnessed at camp.
    I would love to see a clever Jet fan that can put together clips of all these morons jumping on the circus & worst team in history, maybe they can win 3 games, they certainly will pick in the top 5 BS we all has to hear.
    Even our own fans like Mainejet & Joe Namath bought into the hyperbowl & B4 they deny it, don't make us drag out old posts they will make you & a bunch of other fans look as moronic as the Media this summer.

  11. #11
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Upper East Side
    Posts
    6,655
    Post Thanks / Like
    For what it's worth I don't think KC Joyner really "represents" ESPN. He's a deep analytics guy on Insider. He's not Cimini... Anyone who read the article would obviously get that...

  12. #12
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    6,790
    Post Thanks / Like
    The Jets can beat anybody in the league due to the level of play in the trenches right now. Control the line of scrimmage = control the game. We just need Geno to continue progressing and bring the number of turnovers down.

  13. #13
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    5,615
    Post Thanks / Like
    eh, I would rather the media continue the circus angle. We seem to play better when we are disrespected.

  14. #14
    All League
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Sudbury,Ma
    Posts
    2,809
    Post Thanks / Like

  15. #15
    All League
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    2,725
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by Austin View Post
    For what it's worth I don't think KC Joyner really "represents" ESPN. He's a deep analytics guy on Insider. He's not Cimini... Anyone who read the article would obviously get that...
    Agreed. I have liked KC Joyner for a while since he doesn't let his opinion get in the way and generally lets the numbers do the talking. That being said, while I am thrilled to have some great metrics so far, this article is worth squat until they go out there and do it.

  16. #16
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    18,668
    Post Thanks / Like
    From drafting Teddy to the playoffs. 'Tis the NFL.

  17. #17
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Eastchester, NY
    Posts
    1,221
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by JonEJet View Post
    Didn't listen to ESPN when they trashed us....surely won't listen when they try to get back on the RexWagon
    Read the title - its about "why" they "could" make the playoffs. The author isn't making any predictions.

    It's actually a good read.

  18. #18
    Rookie
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    893
    Post Thanks / Like

    KC Joyner via ESPN: Why the Jets Can Make the Playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Bronxville Jets Fan View Post
    Read the title - its about "why" they "could" make the playoffs. The author isn't making any predictions.

    It's actually a good read.
    No doubt there were some folks who didn't jump on the circus, worst team in NFL BS. Yet I would be careful about getting caught up in any of this latest love for the Jets. A couple of losses and we will be pretenders that they all knew we were right from the start. One game at a time, win or lose and continued improvement with each game and we could be in great shape going into next season, playoff or not.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - now Free

  19. #19
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    6,440
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by John_0515 View Post
    32 Power ranking to start the season - and now they're talking playoffs after week 3?

    ESPN is like the crazy hot cheerleader in high school. Gets all the attention because there's no one as hot as her, hates you one minute, ready to **** your brains out the second you seem cool. No brains whatsoever.
    High School? Your cheerleaders where hot in HS? I thought that was like a porn movie myth. I remember going to a forced pep rally my freshman year and it was like cow and horse face central. One was in a wheel chair anther was like 300 lbs. The female bowling team put them to shame. Although to be fair our female bowling team did have a lot of really hot girls in it.

  20. #20
    Undrafted Free Agent
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    S.Florida via Long Island
    Posts
    144
    Post Thanks / Like
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamers View Post
    High School? Your cheerleaders where hot in HS? I thought that was like a porn movie myth. I remember going to a forced pep rally my freshman year and it was like cow and horse face central. One was in a wheel chair anther was like 300 lbs. The female bowling team put them to shame. Although to be fair our female bowling team did have a lot of really hot girls in it.
    Sh*tty highschool?

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us