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Thread: The continuity myth.

  1. #1
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    The continuity myth.

    A lot has been said about maintaining continuity and how important that is for a Head Coach. People say Rex deserves more than 5 years regardless of his record because you need continuity to win. Here is a look at the Super Bowl winners since 2000 and how long their head coach was with them before they won their Super Bowl

    2000 St. Louis Rams Dick Vermeil.
    Hired in 1997 won Super Bowl in 3rd season with the team.

    2001 Baltimore Ravens Brian Billick.
    Hired in 1997 won Super Bowl in 4th season with team.

    2002 New England Patriots Bill Bellichick.
    Hired in 2000 won Super Bowl in second, 4th and 5th seasons.

    2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers John Gruden.
    Hired in 2002 won Super Bowl in his first year.

    2006 Pittsburgh Steelers Bill Cowher.
    Hired in 1992 won the Super Bowl in his 14th season.

    2007 Indianapolis Colts Tony Dungy.
    Hired in 2002 won Super Bowl in his 5th season.

    2008 New York Giants Tom Coughlin.
    Hired in 2004 won the Super Bowl in his 4th and 8th seasons.

    2009 Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Tomlin.
    Hired in 2007 won the Super Bowl in his 2nd season.

    2010 New Orleans Saints Sean Payton.
    Hired in 2006 won the Super Bowl in his 4th season.

    2011 Green Bay Packers Mike McCarthy.
    Hired in 2006 won the Super Bowl in his 5th season.

    2013 Baltimore Ravens John Harbaugh.
    Hired in 2008 won the Super Bowl in his 4th season.


    So as you can see since 2000 only one coach, Bill Cowher, took longer than 5 years to win the Super Bowl. Continuity is great when you have success but recent history suggests that continuity for the sake of continuity does not work.

  2. #2
    Another interesting thing about your list is that the most recent super bowl winning head coaches have won it during their first head coaching gig. Just food for thought if Rex gets fired and we start looking for a new head coach.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sec.101row23 View Post
    A lot has been said about maintaining continuity and how important that is for a Head Coach. People say Rex deserves more than 5 years regardless of his record because you need continuity to win. Here is a look at the Super Bowl winners since 2000 and how long their head coach was with them before they won their Super Bowl

    2000 St. Louis Rams Dick Vermeil.
    Hired in 1997 won Super Bowl in 3rd season with the team.

    2001 Baltimore Ravens Brian Billick.
    Hired in 1997 won Super Bowl in 4th season with team.

    2002 New England Patriots Bill Bellichick.
    Hired in 2000 won Super Bowl in second, 4th and 5th seasons.

    2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers John Gruden.
    Hired in 2002 won Super Bowl in his first year.

    2006 Pittsburgh Steelers Bill Cowher.
    Hired in 1992 won the Super Bowl in his 14th season.

    2007 Indianapolis Colts Tony Dungy.
    Hired in 2002 won Super Bowl in his 5th season.

    2008 New York Giants Tom Coughlin.
    Hired in 2004 won the Super Bowl in his 4th and 8th seasons.

    2009 Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Tomlin.
    Hired in 2007 won the Super Bowl in his 2nd season.

    2010 New Orleans Saints Sean Payton.
    Hired in 2006 won the Super Bowl in his 4th season.

    2011 Green Bay Packers Mike McCarthy.
    Hired in 2006 won the Super Bowl in his 5th season.

    2013 Baltimore Ravens John Harbaugh.
    Hired in 2008 won the Super Bowl in his 4th season.


    So as you can see since 2000 only one coach, Bill Cowher, took longer than 5 years to win the Super Bowl. Continuity is great when you have success but recent history suggests that continuity for the sake of continuity does not work.
    Oh jeez

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    Great job looking that all up. Excellent read. Time for us to find a real head coach.

  5. #5
    the jets do have continuity, 44yrs of losing. and zero SB appearances

  6. #6
    Section, great work! Very interesting info.

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    Yeah, blowhards like Francesa are always talking about how the most successful organizations have continuity. Of course, success is what creates the continuity, not the other way around. It's a classic example of confusing correlation and cause.

    A team wins, the people responsible get to stay. Period. They get to keep working through the tougher times only if they have earned the right to do so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by C Mart View Post
    Section, great work! Very interesting info.
    Thanks CMart.

    You can actually go back further.

    1998 Denver Broncos Mike Shanahan.
    Hired in 1995 won the Super Bowl in his 3rd and 4th years.

    1997 Green Bay Packers Mike Holmgren.
    Hired in 1992 won the Super Bowl in his 5th year.

    1996 Dallas Cowboys Barry Switzer.
    Hired in 1994 won the Super Bowl in his 2nd season.

    1995 San Francisco 49ers George Seifert'
    Hired in 1989 won the Super Bowl in his 1st and 6th seasons.

    1994, 1993 Dallas Cowboys Jimmy Johnson.
    Hired in 1989 won the Super Bowl in his 4th and 5th seasons.

    1992 Washington Redskins Joe Gibbs.
    Hired in 1981 won the Super Bowl in his 2nd, 7th and 11th seasons.

    1991 New York Giants Bill Parcells.
    Hired in 1983 won the Super Bowl in his 4th and 8th seasons.

    So you can see history is pretty clear when it comes to Super Bowl winning coaches. Other than Bill Cowher, you have to go back to the '70s to find a Super Bowl winning coach that took more than 5 years to win the Super Bowl with that team.
    Last edited by sec.101row23; 12-16-2013 at 11:09 PM.

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    Nice work. To add to that, we're on a clear downward trajectory: win/loss record, offense and defense are all getting worse every year. I saw a few recent posts that many fans only want to keep Rex due to his personality and I really think there's something to that. He is a likeable guy. But if you're a Jets fan you only care about the team.

  10. #10
    coaching continuity: overrated; roster continuity: underrated.

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    And as exceptions go, Cowher is pretty exceptional. He took over the Steelers and led them to the playoffs 6 consecutive years, most by winning division titles and with the fourth season being a trip to the SuperBowl. The guy earned the benefit of the doubt during his rough patch before taking them back to the top.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Traitor Jay & the Woodies View Post
    And as exceptions go, Cowher is pretty exceptional. He took over the Steelers and led them to the playoffs 6 consecutive years, most by winning division titles and with the fourth season being a trip to the SuperBowl. The guy earned the benefit of the doubt during his rough patch before taking them back to the top.
    But that is the only exception until you go all the way back to the '70s where it took Chuck Knoll 6 years to win the Super Bowl in 1975.

  13. #13
    Not sure where Couglin fits on your list.

    He went to two AFC Championship games with the Jaguars but did not appear in the SB in his 8 years as their first ever head coach.

    After joining the Giants in 2004 he had a reputation for being too serious / strict before winning the first of two Superbowls with them in 2008.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by sec.101row23 View Post

    1998 Denver Broncos Mike Shanahan.
    Hired in 1995 won the Super Bowl in his 3rd and 4th years.
    They cheated and went over the salary cap that year.

    Otherwise the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets would have won it all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by James Hasty View Post
    They cheated and went over the salary cap that year.

    Otherwise the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets would have won it all.
    You don't mention the Bellicheat... Who hasn't won SHlT in a VERY long time!

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    Quote Originally Posted by James Hasty View Post
    Not sure where Couglin fits on your list.

    He went to two AFC Championship games with the Jaguars but did not appear in the SB in his 8 years as their first ever head coach.

    After joining the Giants in 2004 he had a reputation for being too serious / strict before winning the first of two Superbowls with them in 2008.
    This is why I'm starting to buy the argument of NO MORE rookie head coaches. If the stats posted above indicate anything, it's that a HC is better in his 2nd go round than in his initial term. I want a guy who has proven he can build & take a team into the playoffs and won't go through the growing pains we've endured since 2000 with Groh, Herm, Mangini, & Rex.

    I want Lovie Smith as our next HC if Idzik chooses another direction.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Gas2No99 View Post
    This is why I'm starting to buy the argument of NO MORE rookie head coaches. If the stats posted above indicate anything, it's that a HC is better in his 2nd go round than in his initial term. I want a guy who has proven he can build & take a team into the playoffs and won't go through the growing pains we've endured since 2000 with Groh, Herm, Mangini, & Rex.

    I want Lovie Smith as our next HC if Idzik chooses another direction.
    I'm also starting to go in the direction of a veteran coach.
    I was thinking Bevell based on offense, but Whisenhunt has a pretty good resume, has the Idzik connection & has a NY Jet connection.
    He also will know how to use TEs, and I'm sure this offseason will be about fixing this offense.
    Lets hope the Bucs resign Revis & we have those 2 third rounders! That could be our offensive value picks, WR, RB.
    I remember Kurt Warner saying that Whisenhunt was very meticulous & coached a lot of fundamentals.
    If we have a young team that's how you get progression.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by sec.101row23 View Post
    A lot has been said about maintaining continuity and how important that is for a Head Coach. People say Rex deserves more than 5 years regardless of his record because you need continuity to win. Here is a look at the Super Bowl winners since 2000 and how long their head coach was with them before they won their Super Bowl

    2000 St. Louis Rams Dick Vermeil.
    Hired in 1997 won Super Bowl in 3rd season with the team.

    2001 Baltimore Ravens Brian Billick.
    Hired in 1997 won Super Bowl in 4th season with team.

    2002 New England Patriots Bill Bellichick.
    Hired in 2000 won Super Bowl in second, 4th and 5th seasons.

    2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers John Gruden.
    Hired in 2002 won Super Bowl in his first year.

    2006 Pittsburgh Steelers Bill Cowher.
    Hired in 1992 won the Super Bowl in his 14th season.

    2007 Indianapolis Colts Tony Dungy.
    Hired in 2002 won Super Bowl in his 5th season.

    2008 New York Giants Tom Coughlin.
    Hired in 2004 won the Super Bowl in his 4th and 8th seasons.

    2009 Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Tomlin.
    Hired in 2007 won the Super Bowl in his 2nd season.

    2010 New Orleans Saints Sean Payton.
    Hired in 2006 won the Super Bowl in his 4th season.

    2011 Green Bay Packers Mike McCarthy.
    Hired in 2006 won the Super Bowl in his 5th season.

    2013 Baltimore Ravens John Harbaugh.
    Hired in 2008 won the Super Bowl in his 4th season.


    So as you can see since 2000 only one coach, Bill Cowher, took longer than 5 years to win the Super Bowl. Continuity is great when you have success but recent history suggests that continuity for the sake of continuity does not work.
    Boy, most of those teams had some pretty good QB's in their prime. Perhaps that had more to do with the SB wins than the HC's service time?
    Last edited by SONNY WERBLIN; 12-17-2013 at 08:46 AM.

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    i like it when the team averages around 6 years experience.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by SONNY WERBLIN View Post
    Boy, most of those teams had some pretty good QB's in their prime. Perhaps that had more to do with the SB wins than the HC's service time?
    Well history shows us that if you do not find your QB early in your tenure the chances of winning the Super Bowl are almost non-existent. As you can see only once in the past 37 years has a coach taken longer than 5 years to win a Super Bowl with that team.

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