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Thread: A Value Based Look At Our Drafts Since Rex has been here

  1. #1

    A Value Based Look At Our Drafts Since Rex has been here

    I have seen a lot of people dismiss the idea that we have totally overloaded on defense while ignoring the offense in the draft, citing that we drafted 19 offensive players and 9 defensive players in the drafts. But that ignores the value of the picks so I thought I would do a quick analysis and see from a draft value standpoint the disparity. I took all of our drafted players from 2009 on as well as Ivory this year (I skipped Holmes/Lito Shephard and Edwards trades), and made a list with their draft value. Some findings, looking at 2009-2013 and then 2010 through 2013 when Rex was established:

    Total Offensive Players: 20 Total Offensive Players Since 2010: 17
    Total Defensive Players: 9 Total Defensive Players Since 2010: 9

    Offensive First Rounders: 1 Offensive First Rounders Since 2010: 0
    Defensive First Rounders: 5 Defensive First Rounders Since 2010: 5

    Average Offensive Draft Position: 189.8, 3rd rounder 80th overall
    Average Offensive DP Since 2010: 106.9 Between 98th and 99th pick in 4th round

    Average Defensive Draft Position: 567.5 34th pick in the draft at top of 2nd round (same for 2010)

    Difference in Value Between Offense and Defense: 1311.6 (equivalent of 10th pick or equivalent of 3.1 middle 2nd round picks)

    Difference in Value Since 2010: 3290.8 (More than the #1 pick in the draft or 7.8 middle second rounders)

    So as you can see despite higher numbers, our drafts especially since 2010 have been incredibly biased towards defense. Essentially, the defense has 8 second round selections more value of talent than our offense. That is huge. The average player we have drafted for the defense is a high 2nd rounder (remove Allen and Bush and its like the 25th pick in the draft, or a low first rounder), while the offensive average is a 4th round pick.

    I cannot imagine that many teams have this disparity between offense and defense in the value of the picks they have used to draft them. Our defense SHOULD be really good, and our offense SHOULD be really bad.

    It is impossible to think that with a heavily biased defensive coach that this disparity is not linked to Rex , and a good reason for him to go. No team can be successful, in my view, with this level of disparity in building the two sides of the ball, especially since you could make an easy argument that offense in today's NFL is more important than defense.

    I will copy data in a below post.

  2. #2
    Offense Defense
    2009 Player Value Player Value
    Mark Sanchez 1700
    Shonn Green 265
    Matt Slauson 14.2
    Total 1979.2

    2010 Vladimir Ducasse 292 Kyle Wilson 640
    Joe McKnight 70
    Jon Connor 36.5
    Total 398.5 Total 640

    2011 Bilal Powell 46 Muhammad Wilkerson 620
    Jeremy Kerley 30.2 Kendrick Ellis 124
    Greg McElroy 8.2
    Scotty McKnight 2
    Total 86.4 Total 744

    2012 Stephen Hill 430 Quinton Coples 1000
    Terrence Ganaway10.6 Demario Davis 205
    John Griffin 10.2 Josh Bush 16.6
    Jordan White 2 Antonio Allen 2
    Total 452.8 Total 1223.6

    2013 Geno Smith 510 Dee Milliner 1350
    Brian Winters 230 Sheldon Richardson 1150
    Chris Ivory (trade) 82
    Oday Oboushi 31.5
    William Campbell 20.2
    Tommy Bohannon 5.4
    Total 879.1 Total 2500

  3. #3
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    Not to mention that when we have taken an offensive player in the first couple of rounds they have been bad. Sanchez, Ducasse, Hill. We have gotten very little offense out of our drafts the pasts 5 years. Kerley is basically all we have to show for it and guys like him are a dime a dozen.

  4. #4
    For whatever it's worth consider the fact that the Jets first 2 years were essentially entirely offense drafts, between the trades for Sanchez, Holmes and Edwards, and drafting a QB, 3 RBs, and 2 O-Lineman.

    Again, I agree with your general assessment, but there were reasons why for everything. Most notably, there was no WR/RB taken until the 28th pick of the first round, Jets went Offense in Rounds 2 and 3. The stats are so lopsided because the Jets took 2 first rounders in the 2013 draft.

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