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Thread: Jets, Wilkerson could be headed for Revis-like contract showdown

  1. #1

    Jets, Wilkerson could be headed for Revis-like contract showdown

    Love the assumptions being made in this article. As I bolded below no one has said anything.


    http://nypost.com/2014/02/05/jets-wi...over-contract/

    The Jets famously feuded with their best player over his contract in recent years with the whole Darrelle Revis saga. Could they be heading down that road again?
    Star defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson is eligible for a contract extension after having just completed his third season, but like all 2011 first-round picks he might be facing a fight with his team.
    The 2011 collective bargaining agreement limited rookie contracts to four years, but gave teams an option for a fifth year on first-round picks. The belief at the time by most was the salary in the option year would be high enough to make it smarter for teams to give players long-term deals. But now the numbers look good for the teams and bad for the players.
    In Wilkersonís case, his fifth-year option, which would be for the 2015 season, is expected to be around $6 million. Wilkerson is scheduled to make about $1.2 million in 2014, meaning the Jets could hold onto Wilkerson, an All-Pro player, for $7.2 million over the next two years ó a bargain. If you want to take it even further, they could franchise tag him in 2016 at a number that will probably be about $12 million. So, three years at $19.2 million and the Jets would have controlled the first six years of Wilkersonís career.
    Neither the Jets nor Wilkersonís camp is saying anything right now. But in talking to people around the league the expectation is the Jets (and nearly every other team) will exercise the fifth-year option and then negotiate with the players. The options must be exercised by May 3.
    Since this is the first draft class to go through this process, agents and executives are curious to see how it all plays out.
    Some believe the only leverage the players have is to stage a training camp holdout to force teams to negotiate new deals. On ďPro Football Talk LiveĒ this week Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson, a 2011 first-rounder, said he would not rule out a holdout.
    Wilkerson has said nothing publicly about his contract, but a holdout would be tough for him. He would face fines of $30,000 a day, which would add up quickly if the team holds strong and his salary is $1.2 million this year. A 20-day holdout wipe out half his salary.
    There is no debate Wilkerson, the 30th overall pick in 2011, has outperformed his contract. He is the best player on the Jets and has emerged as a team leader. He was second-team All-Pro this season and had 10 Ĺ sacks. But will the Jets reward him?
    There is disagreement among executives and agents about how much, if any, leverage the players have. If you go strictly by the rules that are set up, the teams hold all the leverage. But others argue teams will be risking sending a terrible message to their other players if they donít reward their best players with new contracts.
    One general manager said teams always prioritize locking up their best players long-term, but acknowledged if those negotiations donít go the way the team wants, the option year buys time to negotiate.
    Several agents said they donít expect the negotiations for the class of 2011 to begin until after the NFL Draft this spring with teams focused on free agency and the draft right now.
    Wilkerson likely will be paying close attention to what the Texans do with star defensive end J.J. Watt, the 11th overall pick in 2011. If Watt gets a contract extension, that will set the new ceiling for defensive ends.
    The Jets hired Thomas McGaughey as their new special teams coordinator Wednesday. He replaced Ben Kotwica, who left after one season to take the same job with the Redskins.
    McGaughey, 40, spent the last three seasons as the special teams coordinator at LSU. He spent four years with the Giants before that, including the 2007 Super Bowl season, as the assistant special teams coach. He also has worked for the Broncos and Chiefs.

  2. #2
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    a week after the super bowl with nothing to write about. May as well have a misleading headline on the website and twitter feeds to generate "clicks"

  3. #3
    There's no question the Jets will pick up the option; it would be criminally stupid not to.

    They should then use that "19.2M over 3 years" contract (1.2 this year, 6 in 2015, 12 in 2016) to negotiate a long term extension with smoothed out cash and cap flows. They can have him at about 8.5M per over 7 years and still give him an extension worth 10M per year (just tack on 4 years, 40M), with more cash up front (signing bonus) and smoothed out cap charges that would cost them, say, 5M in cap space this season and 2M In cap space next season, while saving them cap space over the "franchise" and "extension" years.

    It's the same thing the Pats did with Gronkowski and Hernandez, and the Niners did with Bowman. http://overthecap.com/link-joel-corr...ear-extension/ Once the players have proven they can play and you decide you want them long term, use the cost control to negotiate a deal that sacrifices short term cap space for long term stability (assuming you have the cap space to burn in the short term) while still giving the player close to "best case scenario" money, and giving it to him sooner rather than later.

  4. #4
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    You would hope Woody is gettng a little smarter with his on the job training,to know if he lets Big Mo walk,the few remaining jet fans will walk away also.I am beginning to believe Woody will be to the NY Jets what Dolan is to the NY Knicks

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    Jeez man... Mo and Sheldon are not going anywhere.
    Revis is gone because Revis is a greedy a-hole. PERIOD.

  6. #6
    I get it's a Jets article, but the 2011 draft (especially the 1st round) was one of the best defensive drafts in recent memory, the Jets are not the only team with this issue. Other than making noise, this article is quite an overreaction

    5th Extension Value:

    - Top 10 players extensions are equal to average of top 10 salaries at the position
    - Outside top 10 is (Including JJ Watt) are the average of 3rd - 25th of the position.

    This is a list of Pro Bowl players drafted in the first round alone of 2011 (Doesn't include Wilkerson), all of these guys are in the same position as Wilkerson. I'm guessing Watt and Newton will be paid the most:


    Pick #:
    1. Cam Newton
    2. Von Miller
    3. Marcell Dareus
    4. A.J. Green
    5. Patrick Peterson
    6. Julio Jones
    7. Aldon Smith
    9. Tyron Smith
    11. J.J. Watt
    14. Robert Quinn
    15. Mike Pouncey
    16. Ryan Kerrigan
    24. Cameron Jordan

    The team with a really interesting decision is Denver, Von Miller has already had a 6 game suspension and now will be recovering from an ACL injury, his 5th year extension would be $9M.
    Last edited by Batmans A Scientist; 02-06-2014 at 10:49 AM.

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    Silly article based on the Post editor saying "Costello I need a sexy Jet column". So he
    projects past Revis garbage onto this situation. To Wilkerson's credit whenever he's asked
    about his contract he says he let's his agent handle that while he takes care of business
    on the field. Contracts are personal and private and should be handled as such, hopefully
    Wilkerson continues to blow the media off with his responses

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Batmans A Scientist View Post
    I get it's a Jets article, but the 2011 draft (especially the 1st round) was one of the best defensive drafts in recent memory, the Jets are not the only team with this issue. Other than making noise, this article is quite an overreaction

    This is a list of Pro Bowl players drafted in the first round alone of 2011 (Doesn't include Wilkerson), all of these guys are in the same position as Wilkerson. I'm guessing Watt and Newton will be paid the most:

    Pick #:
    1. Cam Newton
    2. Von Miller
    3. Marcell Dareus
    4. A.J. Green
    5. Patrick Peterson
    6. Julio Jones
    7. Aldon Smith
    9. Tyron Smith
    11. J.J. Watt
    14. Robert Quinn
    15. Mike Pouncey
    16. Ryan Kerrigan
    24. Cameron Jordan
    Exactly, every team that drafted a player in 2011 who has turned out good has this same issue. Jets don't have it any more than other teams.

    There's not much reason for Jets to not be able to extend Wilkerson. That being said, with Richardson, Coples, and Harrison, the Jets could decide that they have enough young talent up front, and while those players aren't as good as Wilkerson (yet - Richardson could turn out as good or better), they're cheaper. Somewhere down the road I could see Jets trading Wilkerson for a bunch of picks, and allocating resources elsewhere.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman Harris View Post
    Jeez man... Mo and Sheldon are not going anywhere.
    Revis is gone because Revis is a greedy a-hole. PERIOD.
    +1 Revis was holding out before he played a down in the NFL.. Mo is a reasonable man I don't see any problem with him..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Savage69 View Post
    +1 Revis was holding out before he played a down in the NFL.. Mo is a reasonable man I don't see any problem with him..
    Seriously! It's like people around here have a major case of amnesia.
    Revis was "insulted" at the offer of 12M a year.
    Wilkerson is not like that. And all of those guys love Rex. A LOT.

    You guys remember how there was "no way" we were gonna be able to keep Harris, Brick, and Mangold???
    Well, they're all still here.

  11. #11
    Tennessee is another team with a really interesting decision next year. Jake Locker was starting to play pretty well last season, they aren't going to extend him via the 5th year option (Right now, he's not worth $13M), but there is still a legit shot he could be their QB of the future. If they don't extend him, and he breaks out next year, he can leave as an UFA, or be franchised at about $15M.

    One more comment: Both Kapernick and Dalton are UFA at the end of 2014, and because both were drafted in 2nd round, the team has no 5th year option. I'm curious how it works out for them. I think Kapernick is above average QB right now, which is probably lower than othe people rank him as a QB, but I don't see any reason for SF not to sign him to a big deal, I do think he has top 10 potential.

    I'm not sold on Dalton at all. I don't think there's any QB in the NFL (maybe Matthew Stafford) who's benefitted more from having an absolute beast at WR then Dalton. That being said, his numbers have been good or better in all 3 seasons, and I can't imagine the Bengals not extending him to a long term deal.
    Last edited by Batmans A Scientist; 02-06-2014 at 11:14 AM.

  12. #12
    When your HC is constantly talking about how great a player is, lobbying for them to make Pro Bowls, and just kissing player's assess, what's gonna happen is that these player's agents are going to get in the player's ears and convince them that they have leverage to force a new contract because the Jets need them.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by First DOWN! View Post
    When your HC is constantly talking about how great a player is, lobbying for them to make Pro Bowls, and just kissing player's assess, what's gonna happen is that these player's agents are going to get in the player's ears and convince them that they have leverage to force a new contract because the Jets need them.
    Delusional...

    Revis was going to do that regardless of what Rex said. Those agents have looked for the absolute maximum anywhere. Vincent Jackson is a great example of that.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman Harris View Post
    Jeez man... Mo and Sheldon are not going anywhere.
    Revis is gone because Revis is a greedy a-hole. PERIOD.
    Yes, and because it's not worth $16 million to keep a guy who can be neutralized by simply throwing away from him.

    Mo will get his money not only because he's worth it, but also because he can't be taken out of the game. At least not without freeing up the other beasts on the line.

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    Quote Originally Posted by doggin94it View Post
    There's no question the Jets will pick up the option; it would be criminally stupid not to.

    They should then use that "19.2M over 3 years" contract (1.2 this year, 6 in 2015, 12 in 2016) to negotiate a long term extension with smoothed out cash and cap flows. They can have him at about 8.5M per over 7 years and still give him an extension worth 10M per year (just tack on 4 years, 40M), with more cash up front (signing bonus) and smoothed out cap charges that would cost them, say, 5M in cap space this season and 2M In cap space next season, while saving them cap space over the "franchise" and "extension" years.

    It's the same thing the Pats did with Gronkowski and Hernandez, and the Niners did with Bowman. http://overthecap.com/link-joel-corr...ear-extension/ Once the players have proven they can play and you decide you want them long term, use the cost control to negotiate a deal that sacrifices short term cap space for long term stability (assuming you have the cap space to burn in the short term) while still giving the player close to "best case scenario" money, and giving it to him sooner rather than later.
    Exactly, aside from Wilkerson making a ton more money this year, it eliminates any risk of injury that he would have by playing out the last two years of the current deal. It makes sense for Wilkerson AND the Jets in the short and long term.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by sec.101row23 View Post
    Exactly, aside from Wilkerson making a ton more money this year, it eliminates any risk of injury that he would have by playing out the last two years of the current deal. It makes sense for Wilkerson AND the Jets in the short and long term.
    Just gonna point out that it's a lot to assume that the player will be so willing to concede a couple million per year based on the idea that he COULD get injured.

    This is the reason why so many players don't sign their extensions earlier. A lot of these players feel indestructible and don't believe they'll be injured.

    Wilkerson has every right to look at Calais Campbell's contract and get around 12 mill a year. Because the cap has gone up since Campbell's contract, you add that percentage difference and you have Wilkerson's number.

  17. #17
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    We have the cap room. We have a conservative GM that wants to build through the draft, and build a sustainable contender. I say pay the man now instead of blowing all our money on sexy FAs. Revis wanted to be the highest paid player every year. So far as we know Wilk is nothing like Revis. I'd say we tear up the contract. Give him a very high salary this year, and a nice Bonus. Then make it a nice affordable cap number for the remainder so we can have plenty of money the following years. I'm hoping we need to pay a franchise QB sometime soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan1983 View Post
    Just gonna point out that it's a lot to assume that the player will be so willing to concede a couple million per year based on the idea that he COULD get injured.

    This is the reason why so many players don't sign their extensions earlier. A lot of these players feel indestructible and don't believe they'll be injured.

    Wilkerson has every right to look at Calais Campbell's contract and get around 12 mill a year. Because the cap has gone up since Campbell's contract, you add that percentage difference and you have Wilkerson's number.
    How is he conceding a couple million when he is only scheduled to make 1.3 million next year. We went through this scenario a month or so ago and your math was simply wrong. Very few players will risk playing two years to get to free agency, when they can have an extension that pays them significantly more in the short term and eliminate the injury risk. Plus it brings him 2 years closer to signing another extension.

  19. #19
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    Wow Costello....what a piece of sh!t.

    It's not even an original thought.

    Cimini wrote about this possibility two weeks ago based upon a National Football Post story done by Jason Cole (at least Cimini gave Cole credit and didn't spin it into a Revis type situation):

    http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-jet...espnapi_public

    NEW YORK JETS
    Jets notes: Wilkerson's big score on hold?


    January, 26, 2014


    By Rich Cimini | ESPNNewYork.com

    Catching up with the New York Jets:

    1. Waiting game: Defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson may not get that contract extension, after all. Like all first-round picks in the 2011 draft class, he could get burned by the fifth-year option in his contract.

    Wilkerson signed a four-year contract, plus an option. It was widely assumed that Wilkerson and the other stars from that class would sign new, long-term deals after the third season, but an article by Jason Cole on National Football Post explains why that's not likely to happen. Turns out those fifth-year option salaries (based on a formula) aren't projected to be as big as anticipated, so it makes dollars and sense for teams to simply pay the option year instead of renegotiating a new contract. Teams have until May 3 to exercise the option.

    In Wilkerson's case, the option is worth about $5.25 million. It could increase to about $6 million, but even that would be a bargain for the Jets. He's due to make $1.2 million in 2014, which means the Jets could have Wilkerson's rights for two years at about $7.2 million if they exercise the option. Let's stretch it further. They could hit him with a franchise tag of, say, $12 million in 2016, meaning they'd have him for three years at $19.2 million -- once again, a bargain for a player of his caliber. The NFP article, which surveyed 10 general managers and cap specialists, said they expect almost every first rounder in 2011 to be tendered for the fifth year rather than receive a long-term extension this year.

    It stinks for Wilkerson and the others, but they're getting jobbed by a pro-management collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect for the 2011 draft. Yeah, the Jets still could do a long-term deal this year with Wilkerson, but because they hold the leverage, they'd demand a team-friendly deal. He could hold out, but the language in the CBA makes it difficult. Wilkerson, drafted 30th overall, would've been better off getting picked in the second round. Those players received straight, four-year contracts.


    Here's Jason Cole's story:

    http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/...wing-1567.html


    First round picks from the 2011 draft class are in for a rude awakening. Jason Cole


    SHARE
    Print ThisJANUARY 24, 2014, 07:00 AM EST

    The star-studded class of the 2011 draft had to put off guaranteed money when the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement was signed that year.
    But three years later, when players such as Cam Newton, Patrick Peterson, A.J. Green and J.J. Watt have established themselves, don’t expect the top players from that draft to make serious money.
    And maybe not for a while.
    In a survey of 10 NFL general managers and/or salary cap specialists, all of them said they expect almost every player from the first round in 2011 to be tendered for a fifth year in their contract rather than sign a long-term extension this year. Simply put, a system that was advertised as a way to reward players who perform has instead turned into leverage against the players.
    Or as one team executive put it: “Why wouldn’t you just put the option on them?”
    In response, numerous agents said the system is clearly broken.
    “The (NFL Players Association) sold the best players in the draft down the river,” one agent said. “And the worst part is they don’t understand the ripple effect. If star players like Newton, Peterson and Watt don’t get paid, how is anybody else supposed to get paid? You base the value of contracts on what the stars make and work your way down.”
    According to data produced by the website Spotrac.com and confirmed by many executives, the fifth-year salaries for most players from the 2011 draft are expected to be so inexpensive that there is almost no reason for teams to want to renegotiate right now. In addition, those salaries aren’t guaranteed for anything more than injury until the beginning of the player’s fifth season, putting the team in almost no risk.
    For instance, standout defensive ends Watt, Robert Quinn, Cameron Jordan and Muhammad Wilkerson project to have fifth-year salaries of only $5.25 million in 2015, according to Spotrac.com figures. While several executives said the number will probably be a little more than $6 million by the time new figures come in, the salary is still relatively small.
    And not guaranteed. Beyond that, those players can be franchised in 2016, giving teams ample control of them through the 2016 season.
    In the case of Watt, who is due to make just over $1.9 million this season, if his fifth-year option is $6 million and the franchise tag is $12 million for him in 2016, the Texans essentially have him under contract for three more years at only $20 million. On the open market, Watt might be worth double that.
    “If I was Houston and had Watt or I was the Jets with Wilkerson, why do anything right now?” one executive said. “What’s the pressure on the team? Sure, if you get a good deal and you can buy out three or four more years, essentially buy his whole career, maybe.”
    Thus, a player like Watt would be lucky to get $20 million guaranteed on a six-year, $60 million deal that would mean the first nine years of his career would be with Houston. Compare that to defensive ends Jared Allen (six-year deal for $73.2 million with $31 million guaranteed) or Mario Williams (six years, $96 million with $50 million guaranteed).
    Even teams like Tennessee, Jacksonville and Minnesota, which took quarterbacks Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder, have little risk in putting a tender on those players.

    Cam Newton took a big step forward in 2013, but it's unlikely that he will be fairly compensated for his efforts.

    To many people in the industry, that’s an indication of how lopsided the rules on paying rookies – and top rookies, at that – have become under the new CBA. In 2011, the owners recoiled at signing bonuses that reached upwards of $50 million for players such as 2010 No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford. Other players in the top 10 picks were regularly getting $25 million and $30 million guaranteed before playing a down in the NFL.
    At the same time, the idea at the time was that players who prove themselves deserved to get paid sooner. Rookie contracts were reduced from a maximum of six years in the first round to only four (players drafted after the first round still only can get a four-year max contract). The catch is that NFL teams have the option to exercise a fifth season on first-round picks. This is the first year under the new system in which teams can exercise the option.
    With the exception of a team such as Green Bay with injury-ravaged offensive lineman Derek Sherrod, just about every team is expected to exercise the option. Even Tampa Bay, which has disappointing 2011 first-rounders Adrian Clayborn and Gabe Carimi, is likely to exercise the options because the contracts aren’t guaranteed.
    “You’d rather have control than not because there’s very little risk. What if Carimi comes in and plays really well? You have him under contract for $5 or $6 million in 2015. Do it. Same goes for Clayborn,” one source said.
    Even flop quarterbacks such as Locker and Ponder could get the option, several GMs said.
    “You’d probably have to alter the contract a little so that you could buy insurance for the season against an injury, but that’s not expensive. If you’re talking about a $13 or $14 million salary, the insurance is about $150,000 and you’d get the cap credit back,” an NFC executive said.
    Even someone like Newton, who has performed better than Bradford to this point, is unlikely to get a contract commensurate with other quarterbacks. Bradford received a six-year, $78 million deal.
    If Carolina wants, it can wait on Newton. Under the current system, Newton is due an option salary of $13.6 million according to Spotrac.com’s numbers and a $16.4 million franchise salary in 2016. Add that to his original four-year, $22 million contract and Newton will make roughly $52 million over his first six years.
    And at a time when quarterbacks such as Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo are getting in excess of $50 million over the first three years of their new contracts, Newton is due to make roughly $35 million over his next three years.

    Or as one agent put it: “Think about that. As good as Newton is when you compare him to those guys, he has no leverage. This system was supposed to give guys leverage if they played well. It has failed. Absolutely failed.”
    Last edited by IndianaJet; 02-06-2014 at 02:59 PM.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by sec.101row23 View Post
    How is he conceding a couple million when he is only scheduled to make 1.3 million next year. We went through this scenario a month or so ago and your math was simply wrong. Very few players will risk playing two years to get to free agency, when they can have an extension that pays them significantly more in the short term and eliminate the injury risk. Plus it brings him 2 years closer to signing another extension.
    The math is definitely correct, it comes down to whether philosophically it is correct.

    Ok, assuming he goes off of Calais Campbell's contract at 11 mill per and including the cap going up, Mo would get around 12 mill as a free agent, probably a bit more. So signing him a couple of years early will likely result in us still paying around 10 mill per year at least. These guys don't want to take too drastic a discount.

    Locking him in around 10 mill a year is cool, but you are losing 9 mill of cap space at least for this season, depending on how the contract is set up.


    There is no, no-brainer aspect of this situation at all. There are pros and cons to each side. Is giving up 9 mill of cap space this season worth it when we could probably sign him to a different contract next year that would average around a mill or 2 mill more?
    Last edited by jetsfan1983; 02-06-2014 at 03:21 PM.

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