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Thread: Coldest air of season since January for next week

  1. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonsta View Post
    It's a bang and a bigger bang coming, perhaps. Behind the Monday storm, there is growing certainty of a system for March 6 - 9 time frame with widespread 1 - 2 ft snows as well. Why is this winter the winter that never ends?? Because the Pna/west ridge continues to cycle in 1 - 2 week cycles and this is another cold cycle. But we are getting disturbances that would normally produce rain now produce snow for this time of the year.
    You are killing me here, I take your info as the bible. We cant kick off our baseball season or prepare the fields because of this weather. We cant even get clay for the fields. People on the LIRR are starting to call me future man.

    When will this winter end?

  2. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetstream23 View Post
    Things like that have happened to me a few times. Sometimes we don't realize how ridiculous it is around here until someone points it out. The wife will hear me break out laughing about something, she comes over and asks what's up. I make the mistake of trying to explain something like...

    Me: "There's this guy Fish....and he made this really funny picture thread and....
    Her: "Oh, your messageboard thingy?"
    Me: "Well, yeah....forget about the funny picture thread....anyway, he had to take a dump at work one day and.....well, let me back up. There's this guy who used to be a cop and he really dislikes turkey legs. It's a long story, but you remember when we took the kids to Disney and we'd see all those people on scooters?...."

    Her: Turning and walking out of the room, "Forget I asked. I bet TokyoJet is somehow involved in this."
    this happens with my wife and I as well. People see me laugh on the train and ask me whats so funny, i dont even try to explain

    Did you get any thing on the barometer pressure yet?

  3. #163
    6 Inches of snow would move this winter into #2 all time for snowfall
    It would take a total of 18 Inches to pass 1995-96.

    What's been crazy about this winter is that there's hasn't been one of those massive 20" snowstorms. Just a constant stream of snow. We've had 11 days of at least 1" of snow since January 1st, we haven't had a single day with at least 1 foot of snow.

  4. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Batmans A Scientist View Post
    It would take a total of 18 Inches to pass 1995-96..
    1995-96 was so much fun seeing the cross country skiers on sixth avenue ... this year's unrelenting ongoing small volumes of snow just makes the winter a drudge up here.

  5. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by dmitexxi View Post
    I take your info as the bible.
    There's your first problem.

  6. #166
    Quote Originally Posted by Batmans A Scientist View Post
    6 Inches of snow would move this winter into #2 all time for snowfall
    It would take a total of 18 Inches to pass 1995-96.
    Do we get rings?

    SAR I

  7. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by 10PennyToColes87 View Post
    There's your first problem.
    D!ck!!

  8. #168
    Quote Originally Posted by 10PennyToColes87 View Post
    There's your first problem.
    Do not do that. Science is not an exact profession and it is subject to change as you receive better information and more research. So even though I am forecasting a huge snowstorm, sure it could still change a bit 4 days out. Right now Nyc is getting slammed.

  9. #169
    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonsta View Post
    Do not do that. Science is not an exact profession and it is subject to change as you receive better information and more research. So even though I am forecasting a huge snowstorm, sure it could still change a bit 4 days out. Right now Nyc is getting slammed.


    SAR I

  10. #170
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    It's cold in Febuurrrrary...go figure.

  11. #171
    Alert : Gfs/Ecmwf models lower snow amount to 4 - 8 inches for NYC and shift storm south. Too soon to tell if that is correct because the storm system has yet to pass into the North American sounding system, and be properly diagnosed on the coherent shape of the system. Until then models are fluctuating on how much moisture this system will have... in addition to the structure affecting phasing or if it even phases.

  12. #172
    There is a small minor shot the storm misses us to the south, but still expect significant snow as of now. This is just model disco... no official change yet.

  13. #173
    If people remember March 4 2001 we had one of the biggest forecast busts in recorded history. All models showed a huge blizzard, but then in that case it shifted north at last minute. We only saw 3 - 6 inches but were predicted to get 2 ft. This time frame has a black mark on it, so that is making me nervous.

  14. #174
    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonsta View Post
    If people remember March 4 2001 we had one of the biggest forecast busts in recorded history. All models showed a huge blizzard, but then in that case it shifted north at last minute. We only saw 3 - 6 inches but were predicted to get 2 ft. This time frame has a black mark on it, so that is making me nervous.
    I think I can safely say that no one remembers a forecast bust from 13 years ago.

  15. #175
    Breaking news : Risk for huge snowstorm rapidly decreasing. New Gfs has moved the south so far south such that only 1 - 2 inches of snow occurs. What is happening is the northern stream disturbance in canada is now expected so surge the front with cold air so much south that the track of the sfc low goes well south of us. Spread news if you may that risk is lessened.

  16. #176
    The storm has been sampled and with that clarity that this is mainly a miss.

  17. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonsta View Post
    Breaking news : Risk for huge snowstorm rapidly decreasing. New Girlfriend has moved the south so far south such that only 1 - 2 inches of shlt occurs. What is happening is the northern stream disturbance in canada is now expected so surge the front with cold air so much south that the track of the sfc low goes well south of us. Spread news if you may that risk is lessened.
    Total bummer, man

  18. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by SAR I View Post
    Do we get rings?

    SAR I
    The rings around Uranus are reward enough

  19. #179
    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman Harris View Post
    Total bummer, man
    You are an idiot for dissing my post. My posts affect people's plans, as they plan around my info. Go mock someone else.

  20. #180
    Quote Originally Posted by Batmans A Scientist View Post
    This may be true, but you should be quite careful on what you mean by "Best call on accumulation". NYC is very roughly 40 miles North to South and 15 miles East to West. There's no way to know where the meat of a storm is going to go on such a micro scale this early on.

    The "best call on accumulation" is still a really small number. A more accurate thing to say would be that there is a good chance of a major snowstorm (Lets say, for arguments sake 75% likely, though that seems way too high for a storm 5 days) and if there is, there is a good chance it could roll through NYC (Say 60% likely of hitting NYC, and 30% likely of the heart of storm going through NYC), and if that is the case, the max amount of snow for the snow could be as high as 18-24" (70% likely), That would make it about a 35% chance of good snow (roughly 4+ Inches), and 15% chance of major snow (12" or higher) .

    Still the most likely scenario, just far too soon to expect a foot of snow.
    I think your probability matrix makes sense. It provides cover for when the models change. In this case we went from a massive snowstorm to nothing in two days. That's a big change.

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