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Thread: Alert : Snowstorm risk increasing for Sunday night - Monday March 16 - 17

  1. #1

    Alert : Snowstorm risk increasing for Sunday night - Monday March 16 - 17

    I warned people after this system which I predicted wrongly that another system was imminent on the models right behind it. Right now snowstorm risk increasing from 30% to 50 %. Models are forecasting a rather similar set - up to the past storm but... polar vortex is further south allowing more cold air. Right now accumalating snow is likely at least 3 inches. That is based on the avg of all the models with the Gfs being ots and the Canadian and Euro showing snow. Only hesitation is the ots on the Gfs, but that is looking less likely with the Nam jumping on board.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonsta View Post
    I warned people after this system which I predicted wrongly that another system was imminent on the models right behind it. Right now snowstorm risk increasing from 30% to 50 %. Models are forecasting a rather similar set - up to the past storm but... polar vortex is further south allowing more cold air. Right now accumalating snow is likely at least 3 inches. That is based on the avg of all the models with the Gfs being ots and the Canadian and Euro showing snow. Only hesitation is the ots on the Gfs, but that is looking less likely with the Nam jumping on board.

    STOP POSTING !! NO ONE CARES !!

  3. #3
    Again this may change but that is what the majority of the models shows. We can only forecast what we analyze and that is the current analysis.

  4. #4
    SOJF nerves are already shot with their proclaimed failures of FA after one day, the crying I'm this thread is going to be epic!

  5. #5
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    No one gives a sh*t, Bill Nye

    Free agency has started

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    As if this board wasn't cracked out enough.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonsta View Post
    I warned people after this system which I predicted wrongly that another system was imminent on the models right behind it. Right now snowstorm risk increasing from 30% to 50 %. Models are forecasting a rather similar set - up to the past storm but... polar vortex is further south allowing more cold air. Right now accumalating snow is likely at least 3 inches. That is based on the avg of all the models with the Gfs being ots and the Canadian and Euro showing snow. Only hesitation is the ots on the Gfs, but that is looking less likely with the Nam jumping on board.
    Yeeeeesssssss. Nothing like sound, quantitative weather metrics to break up the monotony of non jet FA signings. Cookie is the Dromio of Jets Insider. Well done.

  8. #8
    I usually say when the Nam and Ecmwf shows a storm system hitting in the medium range it usually verifies because you have 2 models which generally handle phasing the best and them being on board increases confidence. This system best resembles Feb 13 snowstorm which I correctly forecast.

  9. #9
    Gota love Cookie.

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  11. #11
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    This is exactly what we needed,cook. Create the diversion for the jets not signing anyone. You should've went with a larger accumulation to get these guys' minds off free agency. Valiant effort!

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonsta View Post
    I warned people after this system which I predicted wrongly that another system was imminent on the models right behind it. Right now snowstorm risk increasing from 30% to 50 %. Models are forecasting a rather similar set - up to the past storm but... polar vortex is further south allowing more cold air. Right now accumalating snow is likely at least 3 inches. That is based on the avg of all the models with the Gfs being ots and the Canadian and Euro showing snow. Only hesitation is the ots on the Gfs, but that is looking less likely with the Nam jumping on board.
    Dude, I'm usually on your side, but if the best you got is "30% - 50%" you're really not helping -- especially when the Jets are locking up all these players but not signing any of them . . .
    Last edited by OCCH; 03-12-2014 at 06:30 PM.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by OCCH View Post
    Dude, I'm usually on your side, but if the best you got is "30% - 50%" you're really not helping -- especially when the Jets are locking up all these players but not signing any of them . . .
    If it happens it will be snow. The cold air is gona be here, now we need to make sure storm doesn't move south and I get burned again.

  14. #14
    Who was the poster with the aliens and morphic fields?

  15. #15
    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/f120.gif
    Link Ecmwf model. Note the low sitting of the the mid atlantic coast... also not the red dashed line which is 850 temp line and north of it is snow. Also note the big circle to the north of it... that is known as a polar vortex and it can also act as a 50/50 low during storms. In this case it is strong and is not just at 50/50 lat/lon... it extends west and is actually moving west to east. This could suppress the storm... but I have very profound evidence that the air will be more than cold for snow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonsta View Post
    If it happens it will be snow. The cold air is gona be here, now we need to make sure storm doesn't move south and I get burned again.
    We're GONNA get some weather, but I could be wrong.

  17. #17
    Baseically why this could move south is because if we had the 50/50 at that exact location and not more west... the heights in the northeast would respond and assure the boundary where the storm travels will be close enough so we are hit. There is quite a bit of w - east here and suggesting cold air may win out. Right now though snow is a good bet.

  18. #18
    http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb...8-120_0000.gif

    Canadian model snow totals in MILIMETers convert to centimeter by moving one place to left. Up to 2 centimeters assuming the air is getting very cold here could mean totals in 8 - 12 range IF this model is right. The only model not showing snow is the GFS model .

  19. #19
    Shouldn't this thread be in the Hangar?

  20. #20
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    100% chance of weather coming soon.

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