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Thread: ChiefST's - Fantasy Football 2014 - An Early Look with 2 Round Mock

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    ChiefST's - Fantasy Football 2014 - An Early Look with 2 Round Mock

    http://www.dailyfantasyadvice.net/20...-strategy.html

    Fantasy Football 2014 Draft Strategy - A Look Ahead with a 2 Round Mock Draft

    The 2013 fantasy football season is over and for degenerates like me there's no time like the present to start thinking about next seasons fantasy draft. Each NFL season has a unique flavor when it comes to fantasy strategy. Going in to the 2013 draft one theme that many fantasy pundits including yours truly harped in waiting on the QB position. That strategy paid off nicely as the season played out. Drafting your fantasy team is a balancing act. The key is to recognize where the talent pool is deep and where it is shallow. In this post we are going to take a look at the various positions and include tiered rankings for each.

    Going in to 2013 there were 10 to 12 QB's I was comfortable heading up my team. Players like Luck and Romo had ADP's in the 10 to 12 range. This meant I could wait well into the middle rounds to draft one. What further solidified the "wait on the QB" theory was the parity in the second tier QB position. I had Wilson, Luck, Kaepernick, and Romo all with similar grades. As that point why waste a 5th on Kaepernick when one could wait and grab Wilson in the 9th. I used a "wait on the QB" strategy in 2013 with fantastic results. Of the 5 Fantasy Teams I drafted in money leagues all but one finished in the money. The one losing team was a very early draft which was crushed by pre-season injuries. I wound up riding QB's like Foles and Wilson to Fantasy Glory due to depth at the other positions. Looking ahead to 2014 the same logic applies. We will take a look at all of the positions and determine where the elite talent is.

    QB Spot:

    Elite Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees
    Excellent: Cam Newton, Nick Foles, Stafford
    Solid Starters: Matt Ryan, Kaepernick, Brady, Wilson, Romo, Rivers, Cutler, RG3, Luck

    As you can see above there are 15 QB's I would be comfortable with as season long starters for 2014. That does not even include the draft which may produce one or two more startable players. When a position is this stacked it makes sense to wait in the draft.

    RB Spot:

    Elite: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte,
    Excellent: Eddie Lacy, Marshaun Lynch, Adrian Peterson
    Solid: Le'Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy
    4th Tier Startable Players: Reggie Bush, Ryan Mathews, Gio Bernard, CJ Spiller, Knowshon Moreno (or Monte Ball if Moreno leaves via FA), Arian Foster
    5th Tier: CJ2K, Ray "knock out" Rice, Steven Jackson, MJD, Shane Vereen, Frank Gore,

    There are around 20 RB's I'd be comfortable rolling out as starters on my fantasy squad. Some of whom are a fairly large drop off in talent from the "elite level".Since most fantasy leagues feature at least 10 teams and at least 20 starters at RB this area is critical to address in the early rounds. My goal will be to land two of the top 15 Runners within the first three rounds of the 2014 Fantasy Draft.

    WR Spot

    Elite Talent: Megatron, Josh Gordon, Brandon Marshall, Demaryus Thomas, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones
    Excellent: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffrey
    Very Good: Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Michael Crabtree, Keenan Allen,
    Good: Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Eric Decker, Victor Cruz, Reggie Wayne, Edelman, Welker, Percy Harvin
    Tier Five (These are WR3-4 Type Players) Corradelle Patterson, T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Bowe, Roddy White, Michael Floyd, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, Riley Cooper, Marquez Colston,
    Tier Six Tavon Austin, Marvin Jones, Cecil Shorts, DeAndre Hopkins, Ruben Randle, Hakeem Nicks,

    Looking at the WR position there are 15 names in the top three tiers. The major dropoff occurs in tier 5 24 players in to the draft. Assuming a 10 team league with 3 WR positions the indication here is to focus on WR early. I would want at least 3 of the top 25 names on my squad.

    TE Spot

    Elite: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Vernon Davis
    Good: Jordan Reed, Dennis Pitta, Jordan Cameron,
    Startable: Jason Witten, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett,
    Upside: Zack Ertz, Delanie Walker, Ladarius Green, Tim Wright, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph

    Here we have 16 names all with fantasy starter potential. This is another situation where waiting in the draft is the way to go. Outside of the elite four there are very few options here that differentiate from one another. Do you grab Pitta in the 5th or Delanie Walker in the 10th? The savvy team manager would wait on TE there and grab a player in a more scarce position instead.

    Conclusion

    It's difficult to know what will happen between now (February) and the start of draft season. Still when looking at this upcoming draft through the lens of the 2013 season its clear that once again we have a depth of startable fantasy talent in the TE and QB positions. The appropriate strategy is to wait on both of those positions and focus on WR and RB in the first 5 to 6 rounds.

    When drafting I always use the tiers method to value players. Using the example above there are 6 RB's that should go in the first round this season (The Elite and Excellent Tiers). Depending on your strategy somewhere after the 3rd pick is where WR's should start coming off the board.

    Sample 2 Round Mock For The 2014 Fantasy Football Draft
    This Sample is for a 10 Team Draft (QB 2RB 3WR 1TE)

    Round 1

    1. Jamal Charles
    2. LeSean McCoy
    3. Matt Forte
    4. Eddie Lacy
    5. Megatron
    6. Marshaun Lynch
    7. AJ Green
    8. Josh Gordon
    9. Adrian Peterson
    10. Brandon Marshall

    Round 2

    11. DeMarco Murray
    12. Doug Martin
    13 Julio Jones
    14 Dez Bryant
    15 Alfred Morris
    16 Jordy Nelson
    17 Randall Cobb
    18 Alshon Jeffrey
    19 Antonio Brown
    20 Zac Stacy

    As you can see the first two rounds focused exclusively on the WR and RB positions. In this case if you look back at the tiered ranking system the picks fell in line as follows:

    Elite level RB's outrank Elite level WR's. As we make our way through the draft that would be the outline to follow. When the top three tiers of RB's and WR's are gone it is time to consider TE and QB. I would rank the elite TE's ahead of Elite QB's as the TE spot has a large drop after the first four players go of the board. QB is the deepest position and should be filled only once all your starters and perhaps a backup or two are in place.

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    Great write up, always enjoy your FF expertise. Getting me in the mood for the upcoming season, after a frustrating conclusion to my season last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DevsJetsYanks88 View Post
    Great write up, always enjoy your FF expertise. Getting me in the mood for the upcoming season, after a frustrating conclusion to my season last year.
    I appreciate the kind words. I'll have a more detailed draft strategy guide at some point this summer before draft season Any thoughts on the mock and where I slotted the players?

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    Quote Originally Posted by chiefst2000 View Post
    I appreciate the kind words. I'll have a more detailed draft strategy guide at some point this summer before draft season Any thoughts on the mock and where I slotted the players?
    Well, I obviously am 100% on the same page with your outlined strategy. I haven't used your tiered outline in the past, but I'm definitely going to be using that format going forward.

    In terms of your rankings, there's really not much to disagree with. Plenty of things can change between now and the start of the season, but as of now I think you're pretty spot on. I look forward to seeing your write up come summer time.

    Some of the lower tiered players that intrigue me and I may be looking to target as the draft rolls on:

    Hakeem Nicks - I'm sure I'm not alone in this feeling, but I really like him to have a reemergence in a very good offense and on a 1 year deal.

    Tavon Austin - In a brutal division, but I like him to have a more prominent role in his sophomore season. I love these quick, versatile receivers as a flex option, especially in a PPR league.

    Gio Bernard - Another guy that I can see really taking a leap in his sophomore season. Can be a very dangerous RB in PPR leagues.

    CJ2K - A big part of this depending on where he's playing next season.

    Arian Foster - Always have a soft spot for him, as he was a monster for me the year he burst onto the scene. I think Houston has a much better season, with him having one more big year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DevsJetsYanks88 View Post
    Well, I obviously am 100% on the same page with your outlined strategy. I haven't used your tiered outline in the past, but I'm definitely going to be using that format going forward.

    In terms of your rankings, there's really not much to disagree with. Plenty of things can change between now and the start of the season, but as of now I think you're pretty spot on. I look forward to seeing your write up come summer time.

    Some of the lower tiered players that intrigue me and I may be looking to target as the draft rolls on:

    Hakeem Nicks - I'm sure I'm not alone in this feeling, but I really like him to have a reemergence in a very good offense and on a 1 year deal.

    Tavon Austin - In a brutal division, but I like him to have a more prominent role in his sophomore season. I love these quick, versatile receivers as a flex option, especially in a PPR league.

    Gio Bernard - Another guy that I can see really taking a leap in his sophomore season. Can be a very dangerous RB in PPR leagues.

    CJ2K - A big part of this depending on where he's playing next season.

    Arian Foster - Always have a soft spot for him, as he was a monster for me the year he burst onto the scene. I think Houston has a much better season, with him having one more big year.
    Gio Bernard may actually be the most talented RB in the game right now. He has that kind of potential. The key with him is how much the coaching staff will use him. To be elite he needs to touch the ball 20+ times a game. I like him in the third round this season.

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    Very early for FF but I don't mind. Here's a couple thoughts:

    Andrew Luck - I think he ends up being a top 3 Fantasy QB next season

    Peyton - buyer beware, I'd still draft him but these guys who have amazing 48-50td seasons have disappointed the next season

    WRs - love Welker having a big bounceback season, love Edelman in the later rounds if your PPR

    RBs - love Woodhead if you're in PPR, like Shane Vereen for PPR, interesting to see how much Sproles affects McCoy's value he is going to go 1 in most drafts

    TE - Graham is a Golden God

    Defense - stay away from Carolina, SEA and SF are the only two great fantasy defenses
    Last edited by detjetsfan; 03-21-2014 at 01:53 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chiefst2000 View Post
    Gio Bernard may actually be the most talented RB in the game right now. He has that kind of potential. The key with him is how much the coaching staff will use him. To be elite he needs to touch the ball 20+ times a game. I like him in the third round this season.
    Gio is a tough player to figure out because he splits time with BJGE who also gets alot of goal-line action. I'm not ready to use a first round pick on him yet even though if BJGE got injured Gio would be the best fantasy RB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by detjetsfan View Post
    Very early for FF but I don't mind. Here's a couple thoughts:

    Andrew Luck - I think he ends up being a top 3 Fantasy QB next season

    Peyton - buyer beware, I'd still draft him but these guys who have amazing 48-50td seasons have disappointed the next season

    WRs - love Welker having a big bounceback season, love Edelman in the later rounds if your PPR

    RBs - love Woodhead if you're in PPR, like Shane Vereen for PPR, interesting to see how much Sproles affects McCoy's value he is going to go 1 in most drafts

    TE - Graham is a Golden God

    Defense - stay away from Carolina, SEA and SF are the only two great fantasy defenses
    Expanding your point on Defense one of the things I made a note of last season was that in general the NFC West defenses are great and therefore all position players in the NFC west get a downgrade. Guys like Fitzgerald, Crabtree, Gore, Ellington, Lynch, Kaep and Wilson all have to face top ranked defenses 4-6 times per season because of the division. In Daily Fantasy contests you never take WR's or RB's going against Seattle or San Fran. Even Arizona is a Defense to avoid. So even though I really like Crabtree as a player I will probably avoid drafting him because he has to face my MAN Sherman twice a season and AZ's excellent secondary twice as well.

    For the most part I agree with the rest of your points. I do think Jamal Charles goes ahead of Shady in draft order however.

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    Quote Originally Posted by detjetsfan View Post
    Gio is a tough player to figure out because he splits time with BJGE who also gets alot of goal-line action. I'm not ready to use a first round pick on him yet even though if BJGE got injured Gio would be the best fantasy RB.
    Agreed, questionable usage is what pushed Gio in to my 4th tier alongside guys like Bush and Matthews. I think as the season progresses there will be more clarity on some of these guys. For me CJ Spiller is one of the most difficult players to place in a tier. Fred Jackson is another year older and CJ is up there with GIO, Forte, Shady and Jamal as far as speed and talent go. I just have a hard time trusting Buffalo's coaching staff to use him correctly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chiefst2000 View Post
    Agreed, questionable usage is what pushed Gio in to my 4th tier alongside guys like Bush and Matthews. I think as the season progresses there will be more clarity on some of these guys. For me CJ Spiller is one of the most difficult players to place in a tier. Fred Jackson is another year older and CJ is up there with GIO, Forte, Shady and Jamal as far as speed and talent go. I just have a hard time trusting Buffalo's coaching staff to use him correctly.
    Spiller is a good back but he is tricky because Buffalo's D gives up alot of points and when that happens the running game goes out the window usually. I'm staying away from early round RBs this year all together I am so sick of getting burnt by them after having Ridley last season costing me my league with his fumble and benching in that Monday Night Denver game. I'm going top tier QB, top tier WR and Jimmy Graham early and hoping to get Woodhead in the later rounds since my money league is PPR. Charles and Shady are the only backs I would draft in rd 1 I won't sniff those guys unless I have a top 3 pick.

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    Quote Originally Posted by detjetsfan View Post
    Spiller is a good back but he is tricky because Buffalo's D gives up alot of points and when that happens the running game goes out the window usually. I'm staying away from early round RBs this year all together I am so sick of getting burnt by them after having Ridley last season costing me my league with his fumble and benching in that Monday Night Denver game. I'm going top tier QB, top tier WR and Jimmy Graham early and hoping to get Woodhead in the later rounds since my money league is PPR. Charles and Shady are the only backs I would draft in rd 1 I won't sniff those guys unless I have a top 3 pick.
    I couldn't be more opposed to going after a top tier QB in the early rounds. Particularly in a PPR league. If your comfortable waiting on RB's then WR, Graham, WR makes more sense. I don't think Peyton, Rodgers or Brees in the 1st 3 rounds will give you much more then Foles, Brady, Ryan or Kaep in the 6th - 10th rounds. If I'm choosing between Julio Jones in the mid second or Dewayne Bowe in the 6th there is a MAJOR drop off there.

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