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Thread: Geno Improving his Int Rate

  1. #1

    Geno Improving his Int Rate

    We all hoped to see year over year improvement in sanchez's ability to cut down his turnovers and never saw it, so I wanted to see how consistent he was from college to the Pros vs Geno.

    Sanchez played a season and 1/3 in college (2007 and 2008) and Geno played 3 full college years and 1 NFL)

    Sanchez
    2007 - 114 attempts with 5 Ints 4.3%
    2008 - 366 attempts with 10 ints 2.8%
    2009 - 364 attempts with 20 ints 5.5% First year in NFL
    2010 - 507 attempts with 13 Ints 2.5%
    2011 - 543 attempts with 18 ints 3.3%
    2012 - 453 attempts with 18 ints 3.9%

    Geno

    2010 - 372 attempts with 7 ints 1.8%
    2011 - 526 attempts with 7 ints 1.3%
    2012 - 518 attempts with 6 ints 1.1%
    2013 - 443 attempts with 21 ints 4.7% First year in NFL

    It seems like taking away a players rookie year as an NFL QB (for obvious reasons, even peyton manning threw an ton of picks), there is a good chance of a player reverting to NEAR their overall average in college. Now Sanchez unfortunately has a very small college sample size, but even at USC, he did throw a high % of Ints for a player in a good offense who was a top 10 pick. Now he also did not play in a spread, which would have helped pad his % with some shorter, high % throws, but still he showed a propensity for ints in college that continued in the pros.

    To me, Geno showed a very low propensity for ints in college, so hopefully a lot of the picks he threw his first year in the NFL are a result of the league and his inexperience, vs an inability to know when to throw it away.

    **Fumbles is a different issue which was just too hard to track**

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by eaglenj View Post
    We all hoped to see year over year improvement in sanchez's ability to cut down his turnovers and never saw it, so I wanted to see how consistent he was from college to the Pros vs Geno.

    Sanchez played a season and 1/3 in college (2007 and 2008) and Geno played 3 full college years and 1 NFL)

    Sanchez
    2007 - 114 attempts with 5 Ints 4.3%
    2008 - 366 attempts with 10 ints 2.8%
    2009 - 364 attempts with 20 ints 5.5% First year in NFL
    2010 - 507 attempts with 13 Ints 2.5%
    2011 - 543 attempts with 18 ints 3.3%
    2012 - 453 attempts with 18 ints 3.9%

    Geno

    2010 - 372 attempts with 7 ints 1.8%
    2011 - 526 attempts with 7 ints 1.3%
    2012 - 518 attempts with 6 ints 1.1%
    2013 - 443 attempts with 21 ints 4.7% First year in NFL

    It seems like taking away a players rookie year as an NFL QB (for obvious reasons, even peyton manning threw an ton of picks), there is a good chance of a player reverting to NEAR their overall average in college. Now Sanchez unfortunately has a very small college sample size, but even at USC, he did throw a high % of Ints for a player in a good offense who was a top 10 pick. Now he also did not play in a spread, which would have helped pad his % with some shorter, high % throws, but still he showed a propensity for ints in college that continued in the pros.

    To me, Geno showed a very low propensity for ints in college, so hopefully a lot of the picks he threw his first year in the NFL are a result of the league and his inexperience, vs an inability to know when to throw it away.

    **Fumbles is a different issue which was just too hard to track**
    This shows me how shockingly right people were when Geno dropped to 2nd for playing in QB friendly air raid offense. You reap what you sow I guess.

    The scary thing is Geno stopped throwing picks once they became a vanilla offense. I am not sure why we compare him to Sanchez. Sanchez's terrible ability is the reason why Geno is now here. Garbage in garbage out.

  3. #3
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    Excellent analysis!!! Let's hope the numbers hold true, if they do we finally have a QB

  4. #4
    The thing that disappointed me about his ints last year was that in preseason and in some early games he threw the ball away like a vet QB. I thought that he was ahead of the game in that regard, then he seemingly forgot all about that and started forcing things.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    The thing that disappointed me about his ints last year was that in preseason and in some early games he threw the ball away like a vet QB. I thought that he was ahead of the game in that regard, then he seemingly forgot all about that and started forcing things.
    Agreed. Again, on here I get negative about Geno and I probably need to cool down. But, I agree. Preseason he let the ball rip. Something I rarely see on here is anyone comment on how long is windup is to throw the ball. I'm not talking about going through reads and getting the ball out, his physical throwing motion. Hopefully they clean that up this offseason.

  6. #6
    Not that there's ever an excuse for INTs…….BUT I do feel like some were rushed throws because of the horrific play of the oline. At times he would see a defender in his face as soon as he dropped back, it was terrible. And he was sacked twice as much as Sanchez was his rookie year.

    Now that I think about it. Winters kinda blew. We should be looking for an upgrade.

  7. #7
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    Geno Smith was a raw rookie thrown directly into the fire after getting half the starter reps in camp. Some growing pains were to be expected.

    Despite all of the negative factors surrounding him, Geno showed some very good promise in a number of games and situations last year. The key to his development and reduction of turnovers is for the game to slow down for him which will lead to improved field awareness. He was overwhelmed at times and didn't get much help from his receiving core. The good news is that Geno looked like a much more composed quarterback in the final quarter of the season, and he put up decent performances throughout the season when his only reliable target Kerley was actually on the field. In my opinion, there is definitely reason to be positive about Geno, but he has to keep improving and working on his craft or his potential will go to waste.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    The thing that disappointed me about his ints last year was that in preseason and in some early games he threw the ball away like a vet QB. I thought that he was ahead of the game in that regard, then he seemingly forgot all about that and started forcing things.
    Very good point. Teams started to blitz him heavy and he panicked under duress.....

    He started to even out toward the end of the season so that's where my hope lies....

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    The thing that disappointed me about his ints last year was that in preseason and in some early games he threw the ball away like a vet QB. I thought that he was ahead of the game in that regard, then he seemingly forgot all about that and started forcing things.
    Its easy to throw the ball away when nobody is running complex defenses or really blitzing in the preseason. I really like Geno and IMO he has all the tools to be good with the right pieces around him. I think he will be much improved next year.
    Last edited by TebowCan'tThrow; 04-10-2014 at 01:06 PM.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    The thing that disappointed me about his ints last year was that in preseason and in some early games he threw the ball away like a vet QB. I thought that he was ahead of the game in that regard, then he seemingly forgot all about that and started forcing things.
    One thing to remember, Geno had to carry his WVA teams and put up 45+ per game to win. Yes he had tavon and steadman bailey, but it was on his shoulders to win games.

    He probably began to realize that regardless of what was said in the media, he need to make some things happen on offense (see the carolina pick that ended the game) for us to win.

    The point about his motion is a good one also. Not compact at all, but hopefully something he is working on this offseason. It does help that his arm strength has to be respected so that gives him a little extra room for a slower then ideal delivery.

  11. #11
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    Geno Smith had little to no dropback experience playing in an Air-Raid system in college, and was asked as rookie to play in a timing based WCO....Geno Smith was drafted to be a project, but an injury to Sanchez forced him to be the guy before he was ready....he was fed to the wolves and came out alive....the adversity didn't break him. He found a way to improve after his horrendous stretch....

    Lots of downs but plenty of ups his rookie season, capped off by a good performance against a Dolphin team fighting to get into the playoffs...

    It's an absolute MUST that he cuts down on the turnovers...he did to end the season, but it needs to carry over into this season. He needs to continue to make great decisions, and USE HIS LEGS!!!!! Part of the problem why he was reluctant to run is because he was dead set on proving he's a pocket passer(As a Black man myself I understand where this comes from, the stereotype that all Black QB's are nothing more than athletes with strong arms but no brain to read a D) but once Marty and Lee ingrained in him that he needs to take the yards if they're given to him, his play picked up.

    The thing I like most about Geno is his heart. He's a gamer, a competitor. THAT's what I want to see out of my QB. Not someone who sulks after a pick, not someone who doesn't have the fire to get better after playing horribly. Someone's who's willing to go all out for the score(that play where he willed himself to the endzone against Miami comes to mind)

    Anyone who thinks Vick is just gonna walk into camp and take the job is sadly mistaken. Geno will be ready.

  12. #12
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    From what I recall Genos biggest issue with INTs was he would look at one receiver the entire way. Honestly I've never seen a QB do it as obviously as he did and often.

    The last 4 games something changed. I believe they simplied his reads and he used his legs more.

    Geno needs to continue to get better and has a long way to go. Teams now have a full year of tape on him. It won't be easy.

    Jets must still protect him with good defense and a strong run game.

  13. #13
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    Geno had no idea where his receivers were going to be in the middle of the season, be it because they were horrible(Hill), or they were just off the street, so if he was staring them down that would be understandable no?
    Once he got a chance to work a couple weeks with the same receivers he did much better.
    Let's see how he does with some good receivers shall we?

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by carlito1171 View Post
    Geno Smith had little to no dropback experience playing in an Air-Raid system in college, and was asked as rookie to play in a timing based WCO....Geno Smith was drafted to be a project, but an injury to Sanchez forced him to be the guy before he was ready....he was fed to the wolves and came out alive....the adversity didn't break him. He found a way to improve after his horrendous stretch....

    Lots of downs but plenty of ups his rookie season, capped off by a good performance against a Dolphin team fighting to get into the playoffs...

    It's an absolute MUST that he cuts down on the turnovers...he did to end the season, but it needs to carry over into this season. He needs to continue to make great decisions, and USE HIS LEGS!!!!! Part of the problem why he was reluctant to run is because he was dead set on proving he's a pocket passer(As a Black man myself I understand where this comes from, the stereotype that all Black QB's are nothing more than athletes with strong arms but no brain to read a D) but once Marty and Lee ingrained in him that he needs to take the yards if they're given to him, his play picked up.

    The thing I like most about Geno is his heart. He's a gamer, a competitor. THAT's what I want to see out of my QB. Not someone who sulks after a pick, not someone who doesn't have the fire to get better after playing horribly. Someone's who's willing to go all out for the score(that play where he willed himself to the endzone against Miami comes to mind)

    Anyone who thinks Vick is just gonna walk into camp and take the job is sadly mistaken. Geno will be ready.
    GREAT post. Thanks! I would add, I was suspicious that Geno was told NOT to run early on last season (thru game 8 or so). I have no evidence other than he didn't run when he had the opportunity. BUT if he runs a bot, I think he's a gamer.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by NY's stepchild View Post
    Geno had no idea where his receivers were going to be in the middle of the season, be it because they were horrible(Hill), or they were just off the street, so if he was staring them down that would be understandable no?
    Once he got a chance to work a couple weeks with the same receivers he did much better.
    Let's see how he does with some good receivers shall we?
    That also speaks to his maturity. Thrown to the wolves the kid NEVER mouthed off. I like the kid.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by southparkcpa View Post
    GREAT post. Thanks! I would add, I was suspicious that Geno was told NOT to run early on last season (thru game 8 or so). I have no evidence other than he didn't run when he had the opportunity. BUT if he runs a bot, I think he's a gamer.
    Using racial stereotypes as a reason why he was focused on being a pocket passer is merely my opinion, but I did read somewhere last season where Geno said he wanted to prove he's a pocket passer....

  17. #17
    i think MM was telling geno to make quicker decisions and if nothing's open then run. the last 4 or so games maybe he started taking that advice more, realizing he didn't have near the weapons he had at WV and even though he's trying to prove he's a pocket passer, it just wasn't happening with that collection of wrs/tes/rbs.

    this is also the main reason i think the jets most definitely will go offense in the first round, and probably the second round as well. it's in idzik's best interests to help geno improve as fast as he can. if the jets drafted dennard in the first, they'd have missed a golden opportunity to help geno, and even though the wr class is deep, there will be more wrs gone by the time the jets pick in the 2nd. idzik wouldn't just be helping the offense by going offense, he'd also be helping the guy he drafted in the hopes he can be a franchise qb.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by jets31 View Post
    From what I recall Genos biggest issue with INTs was he would look at one receiver the entire way. Honestly I've never seen a QB do it as obviously as he did and often.

    The last 4 games something changed. I believe they simplied his reads and he used his legs more.

    Geno needs to continue to get better and has a long way to go. Teams now have a full year of tape on him. It won't be easy.

    Jets must still protect him with good defense and a strong run game.
    Then you never saw SUCKCHEZ play QB for the Jets! Sucky throw one less int then Geno in his rookie year and he had lots more weapons! Just sayin'.....

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Kentucky Jet View Post
    Then you never saw SUCKCHEZ play QB for the Jets! Sucky throw one less int then Geno in his rookie year and he had lots more weapons! Just sayin'.....
    wow you prove the stereo types about people from kentucky. Border line offensive and racist
    Just sayin.....

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmiekid91 View Post
    Agreed. Again, on here I get negative about Geno and I probably need to cool down. But, I agree. Preseason he let the ball rip. Something I rarely see on here is anyone comment on how long is windup is to throw the ball. I'm not talking about going through reads and getting the ball out, his physical throwing motion. Hopefully they clean that up this offseason.
    The fact that you signed up less than two months ago, after the season was over might have something to do with that.
    Last edited by Vinny Testaverde's Niece; 04-10-2014 at 08:43 PM.

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