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Thread: merged Kelvy vol. II ~ ~ ~

  1. #121
    Irrelevant information. If a team drafts 22 starters and they all suck, this says they're the best??????????

    A starter on one team would be a bench warmer on another. Happens all of the time. This information is almost useless.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by CleatMarks View Post
    Irrelevant information. If a team drafts 22 starters and they all suck, this says they're the best??????????

    A starter on one team would be a bench warmer on another. Happens all of the time. This information is almost useless.
    Hence the question. Who is the best?

  3. #123

  4. #124
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  5. #125
    man, the Jets got an absolute steal if this guy stays healthy.

  6. #126
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    Right now Seattle!!

    Historically Pitsburgh

  7. #127
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    Hmmm. I thought San Francisco and New England would have the most but they are far from the top. Just because you draft methodically and carefully, doesn't
    make you geniuses. A lot has to do with the age and experience of you're players too, Steelers and the Giants have lots of rebuilding to do. People are pointing at
    Carroll and John Schneider as examples of how to scout and draft talent. I think they just made as many deals as they could tell they got lucky. The more you play
    you can't hurt you're odds.

  8. #128
    Steelers-Giants- everyone else

  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamers View Post
    Steelers-Giants- everyone else


    Funny they are both owned by multi-generational families who seem to promote winning. Well except the Mara daughters, who
    play weird chicks in films.

  10. #130
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    our special teams were anything but special last year, anything is an upgrade.

  11. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by CleatMarks View Post
    Irrelevant information. If a team drafts 22 starters and they all suck, this says they're the best??????????

    A starter on one team would be a bench warmer on another. Happens all of the time. This information is almost useless.
    No. But the combination of a high number of drafted players remaining on the roster and recent success ie playoff seasons, conference titles, SB appearances, etc. would usually indicate a team that has achieved true success through the draft. Also how is it even relevant to argue that a starter on one team would be a bench warmer on another? The point is, said team has been successful with said player. If he fits their scheme and plays well in it, who cares if they bench warm with another team? The article also states that it is not counting that sort of scenario.

  12. #132
    And I couldn't agree more with the posters claiming that the Steelers have been a great drafting team. The vast majority of players who make the greatest impact in a game by game basis imo are draftees. They also seem to always target letting the draft come to them. They seem to take the BAP most of the time as well. It's also quite hard to argue with the direct results.

  13. #133
    Quote Originally Posted by Charlie Brown View Post
    Right now Seattle!!

    Historically Pitsburgh
    They have spent a ton on FA and trades over the last decade. 5 of their top ten paid players where FA pick ups.

  14. #134
    Quote Originally Posted by Mainejet View Post
    No. But the combination of a high number of drafted players remaining on the roster and recent success ie playoff seasons, conference titles, SB appearances, etc. would usually indicate a team that has achieved true success through the draft. Also how is it even relevant to argue that a starter on one team would be a bench warmer on another? The point is, said team has been successful with said player. If he fits their scheme and plays well in it, who cares if they bench warm with another team? The article also states that it is not counting that sort of scenario.
    Then explain why this doesn't show that then. It's all over the map. When it's all over the map, that means the data can't be relied upon for anything useful ...as I said.

    I've paired up the last 3 Super Bowl winners with the team that closely matches this data.

    Baltimore Ravens 6 7 7 6 5 5 3 28
    San Diego Chargers 6 6 7 2 4 3 3 26

    New York Giants 6 5 4 6 3 2 3 18
    Kansas City Chiefs 7 3 8 2 2 4 3 18

    Seattle Seahawks 4 5 3 5 6 5 6 21
    Oakland Raiders 4 3 3 6 3 4 5 24


    Nothing can be determined from this view because all it says is that there is more than one way to build a team. There's zero indication from this data some combination of draft picks means anything. You believe that's how you build a team but can't make that claim base on this data so what's the point? It's useless because the same team with some combination is a disaster of a combination on another team as I showed. It's fine to believe that but I stand by my statement that the data is useless or nearly so.

  15. #135
    Kelly... your articles are just top notch. Great stuff as usual.

  16. #136
    Quote Originally Posted by kelly View Post
    We've seen teams make Super Bowl runs on the back of strong free agency periods,

    Curious which teams he is referring to here. Unless he's talking about one FA putting a team over the top (Broncos/Manning) I can't think of any examples.

  17. #137
    Quote Originally Posted by Toooon View Post
    Curious which teams he is referring to here. Unless he's talking about one FA putting a team over the top (Broncos/Manning) I can't think of any examples.
    There are several examples but the best one is Chuck Gruden's Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

    Although the team had a strong defense under Tony Dungy they made the playoffs year after year only to go nowhere once the playoffs started.

    Gruden loaded up on free agents for the big SB win over the Raiders putting his team over the top.

    Tampa Bay acquisitions under Gruden in his first season with Tampa in 2002:

    Kerry Jenkins OG Jets
    Roman Oben OT Giants
    Keenan McCardell WR Jaguars
    Joe Jurevicius WR Giants
    Ken Dilger TE Colts
    Michael Pittman RB Cardinals
    Greg Spires DE Browns
    Tom Tupa P Jets


    Other notable free agent additions:

    Simeon Rice DE Cardinals 2001
    Brad Johnson QB Redskins 2001
    Keyshwn Johnson WR Jets 2000
    Jeff Christy C Vikings 2000

  18. #138
    The list is pointless. It doesn't tell you anything about how good the guys are. If you keep changing headcoaches, if your team sucks, it's obviously easier to make the team. That doesn't mean the players drafted are playing well, it just means that the entire team is so bad that it's easier to make the squad. Especially as a late rounder. Case in point: Look at the Texans, the Rams. They suck. The Saints don't have a lot of picks on that list, but the ones that do make their team are impact guys, Pro Bowl caliber players. The Rams have a gazillion picks that made their teams over the years, but they all pretty much suck. I rather have one 1st round pick in my starting lineup playing well instead of five 3rd rounders that play special teams only.

  19. #139
    For me, building through the draft and doing a great job each and every year is how you build a SB winner. I hear the arguments of Cleat Marks and Daballhawk. They make some good points. But if we do not have building through the draft as the tell tale sign of a SB winner then what do we have?

    It's a combination of a lot of things. It's great drafting combined with good FA moves. It's great moves to eyeball talent in the UDFA market. It's getting guys that are willing to accept reasonable contract numbers that do not hijack the team. It's having an extra pick or two here and there because you made some decent team benefitting trades. It's about selecting the right QB because the NFL is in fact a QB driven league. It's all of the above.

    But to say that good drafting has nothing to do with building a SB winner just sends the entire science into the abyss. It means that all these SB winners just happened to get "accidentally" lucky when they selected certain players through the draft.

    As a prime example, look at our success in 2009 and 2010. Call Tannenbaum incompetent if you will, but he did make some very good selections in the draft. Darrelle Revis, David Harris, Shon Greene (albeit for a short while), Brick, Nick, etc. It's also some great FA moves and trades like Kris Jenkins, Alan Faneca, Calvin Pace, Damien Woody, Richardson, etc. Although everyone might think the Jets morphed into a contender after the FA period of 2008, it was actually the combination of drafting, FA, and trades. Drafting, however, is what laid the groundwork for the Jets to go to back to back AFC Championships along with many other factors that fell right for the team.

  20. #140
    Quote Originally Posted by Charlie Brown View Post
    Right now Seattle!!

    Historically Pitsburgh
    +1

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