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Thread: " Jets ranked as NFL's fourth-most hopeless team ?... Can that be right ? " ? ? ?

  1. #1
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    Angry " Jets ranked as NFL's fourth-most hopeless team ?... Can that be right ? " ? ? ?

    Like each team's workout program, media coverage of the NFL offseason basically unfolds in three phases :

    1. Free agency.
    2. The draft.
    3. Listicles designed to pass the time till training camp.

    We're now full-on into the listicle phase, which means everything and anything gets ordered or ranked, whether it's according to fantasy value, secret superstars, or roster projections. Scoff at the simple-mindedness all you want, but if you weren't interested, you wouldn't be reading this. Thank you for reading this.

    Anyway, Mike Tanier of Sports on Earth last week created what he calls a Hope Index for all 32 NFL teams. The idea—in case something called the Hope Index wasn't self-explanatory enough for you—was to "put a number on hope and rank all 32 teams on hopefulness."

    And Your New York Jets came in at No. 29 in Having Hope, or No. 4 in Having No Hope, depending on one's view of things. Which seems ... off.

    Tanier's Jets take reads as follows:

    John Idzik still represents a "regime change" point, and Michael Vick combines with a repurposed Geno Smith to make a "new quarterback," but the bottom line is that the Jets lead the league in phrases that must be placed within quotation marks.

    Fine, yes. But No. 29 in Hope? Like, really?

    Tanier, the co-author of the always-excellent Football Outsiders Almanac, didn't just spitball these rankings. He created an actual methodology to quantify the whole shebang, which he described this way:

    "Hope" does not mean hope for a 2014 Super Bowl, but hope for a brighter future. Teams at the top of the list are either headed in the right direction, have already arrived there, or have beachfront summer homes in "right direction." Teams in the middle have at least installed the GPS and packed their bags. Teams at the bottom are not expected to win now and would have a hard time convincing anyone that they are poised to win later.

    Upon closer inspection, however, it's obvious that Tanier's criteria is stacked against the Jets. I say this not out of any whining sense of bias or unfairness. Rather, it's that Tanier's methodology does little to reward a team faced with the Jets' particular set of circumstances. (Tanier knows this, by the way. The Hope Index is meant to be a light snack of offseason analysis, not a hearty meal. "If you feel different," he writes at one point, "it does not reflect poorly on your intellect or sanity. Probably.")

    Here is what Tanier considered in compiling the Hope Index, and whether any of it applies to the Jets:

    • Recent Super Bowl appearances (No.)
    • Super Bowl quarterback (Nope.)
    • Super Bowl coach (Nuh-uh.)
    • Winning records, last five years (Yes!)
    * 2013 playoff appearance (Nah.)
    • 2013 Pro Bowl participants (Well, kind of.)
    • 2012 Pro Bowl participants (Kind of, sort of.)
    • Class of 2012 quarterback (Huh?)
    • New quarterback (Why?)
    • New coach (Come on.)
    • New regime (Nada.)
    • Drafting in top five and/or having multiple first-round picks (Nyet.)
    • Stuck in a tough division (At last. Now we're talking.)

    As you can see, most of the above criteria has absolutely nothing to do with whether the Jets might have "hope" for the future. And not just the Jets: As the Seahawks have demonstrated, recent history does nothing to determine a team's future success. Indeed, had there been a Hope Index prior to the 2012 season, the Seahawks likely would have ranked near the bottom, considering they had made one playoff appearance in their four previous seasons —and even had a losing record that year, to boot. And all the Seahawks have done since is win a division before winning the Super Bowl.

    As Jets fans know all too well, having Pro Bowl participants is indicative of nothing: Cornerback Antonio Cromartie was one of two Jets to make the Pro Bowl after last season (center Nick Mangold was the other). But Cromartie had played most of last season on a bad hip. It was actually one of the worst seasons of his career. His reward was to get cut.

    New coaches, new quarterbacks, and new regimes? That kind of stuff generates enthusiasm because there's always some promise in what's new and unknown. But as metrics, they don't signal anything, either.

    The Jets' biggest obstacle to "hope"—aside from the obvious uncertainty at quarterback, regardless of who starts between GenoMichaelSmithVick—is playing in the AFC East, where the Patriots will remain the gold standard for as long as Tom Brady can put on a helmet. This is undeniable.

    The Jets' moves this offseason don't figure to make them Super Bowl contenders. But fourth in the NFL in Having No Hope? Nah.

    > http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/201..._be_right.html

  2. #2
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    On the contrary, despite our recent troubles I think there is a ALOT of reason to be hopeful as a Jets fan.

    They make it sound like we're Bills, Browns, or Raiders fans.

  3. #3
    17 years as a math teacher...obviously knows what he is talking about regarding the NFL.

    http://www.sportsonearth.com/bio/mike_tanier

  4. #4

    " Jets ranked as NFL's fourth-most hopeless team ?... Can that be right ? " ...

    Not even worth a thread, you're better than this Kelly ~~~

    Cap space is not a factor? Having multiple firsts LAST YEAR is not a factor? (But it is if we had them this year?)

    Why is SB appearances a factor in determining future "hope"? Why do two new categories (SB QB and Coach) spawn from this already flawed item?

    The fact that his methodology is so astoundingly flawed makes me actually happy that we are ranked so low. We are doing something right, clearly, whereas Mike Tanier is not.

  5. #5
    The basic point of info is missed. Teams that are great have hope because of recent history, teams that are terrible have hope because of a total overhaul, teams in between, not so much. I'd be curious if there is in an actual connection between pro-bowl players on a losing team and future success.

  6. #6
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    These guys are big time players in sports reporting and handicapping. Not.

  7. #7
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    I'm surprised they dont take into account the level of play of rookies. eg having a DROY plus a different player earning DROM out of a new regimes first draft would definately give a franchise room for some hope.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by CraigFL View Post
    I'm surprised they dont take into account the level of play of rookies. eg having a DROY plus a different player earning DROM out of a new regimes first draft would definately give a franchise room for some hope.
    Yeah, I was thinking this too, I would think the fact that the Jets be among the NFL leaders in rookie snaps and rookie starts in 2013 would be a pretty damn reason for hope in 2014, also it's truly odd to reward a team for a QB drafted in 2012 and 2014, but not 2013.

  9. #9
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    Wow, I used to respect Mike Tanier when he was writing for the NYT and doing the weekly NFL picks. This is pathetic. By his criteria the Seahawks would have had no hope last year, and didn't we have multiple first round picks last year?

  10. #10
    Fourth most hopeless team? Please. Yes, no SB appearances, but since 2000 we've had a .504 winning percentage, with 9 winning seasons and 4 losing seasons (plus two 8 win seasons) and one division championship. Weve been in the playoffs 6 times with 6 playoff wins and made 2 conference championship games.

    I can tell you right now off the top of my head that the Bills, Dolphins, Browns, Bengals, Jacksonville, Oakland, Kansas City, Cowboys, Redskins, Vikings, and Lions would be envious of our position.

  11. #11
    I wonder where Tanier comes on the hopeless bum writer list?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harrier View Post
    I wonder where Tanier comes on the hopeless bum writer list?
    1. Mehta
    2. Cimini
    3. Tanier

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by TJ View Post
    1. Mehta
    2. Cimini
    3. Tanier
    I'd consider Gary Myers at 3, another Mehta disciple.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by K-Met57 View Post
    17 years as a math teacher...obviously knows what he is talking about regarding the NFL.

    http://www.sportsonearth.com/bio/mike_tanier


    I see how you added that up....there.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by kennyo7 View Post
    Fourth most hopeless team? Please. Yes, no SB appearances, but since 2000 we've had a .504 winning percentage, with 9 winning seasons and 4 losing seasons (plus two 8 win seasons) and one division championship. Weve been in the playoffs 6 times with 6 playoff wins and made 2 conference championship games.

    I can tell you right now off the top of my head that the Bills, Dolphins, Browns, Bengals, Jacksonville, Oakland, Kansas City, Cowboys, Redskins, Vikings, and Lions would be envious of our position.
    How can you forget Zona and TB. I would say any team in Florida is pretty hopeless with the exception of the Heat. Basketball has always been the biggest sport down there. Not sure I would put KC or the Cowboys on that list though. We are not on the bottom 10 IMO.

  16. #16
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    Right. This is an April Fools joke - right? No credible person with any statisical and research training could cook up such a joke. Absolutely no validity. So lets pick some random categories to make a list and make some news. unbelievable.

  17. #17
    According to ESPN's 2013 "Future Rankings" we were 32nd. It's all BS.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Harrier View Post
    I wonder where Tanier comes on the hopeless bum writer list?
    Coincedentally he's also ranked 4th on the hopeless bum list after Mehta, Cimini and Jason Whitlock.

  19. #19
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    Well if Mike Tanier of Sports on Earth yes so, then I really am stating to get worried. Reminds me of sports illustrated, but even more ignorant.
    I remember my ex-wife getting me a subscription, trying to win the sweepstakes. The worst magazine ever. Trying to specialize in every sort at the same time, and even worse, doing t monthly.
    If this guy knew anything about football, and the circumstances surrounding each team, he might think differently. The Jets won 8 games with the worst offense in the NFL, in it's first year of the WCO. Add to that pitiful starting position, a rookie QB, and then take away our biggest RB playmaker after half a game, and add to that a laundry list of injuries at WR, and you have the recipe for disaster.
    Now add 8 new starters on defense, and let's take our top 10 CB, and make him the worst CB in the league next to the worst rookie CB on the other side.
    Now imagine that team wining 8 games.

    Now add to that Decker, a healthy Kerley, Amaro, and CJ, plus the experience of the QB that had a great last 4 games.
    Add Pryor, and whoever steps up at CB and the immense improvement of Coples, plust the upside of all the FAs, and rookies.

    We may be one year away from serious contention, but we are very close. In fact if things go the way we hope that contention could very well be now.

  20. #20
    I dunno, I guess I can understand most of the factors if you are assessing hope rather than probability of success. He's really just measuring how much fans can assume a team will have success using the laziest factors. If your team was good last year then you're probably expect your team will be good this year. If your team is breaking out of an old mold and taking a new direction or drafting big names in the first round then you are probably hopeful that the new style will pay off in a big way. If you drafted a QB a couple years ago then you're hopeful that he's hitting his stride in the gold-or-garbage third year. In other words, what's the reason to be excited about what a team is doing?

    You would expect to see teams at the bottom who are in the midst of a slow, methodical rebuild (like us) along with teams that had middling results and those who just seem to be on autopilot (like the Raiders). You would expect the top end to be fleshed out with the teams with the best and worst records because the best have those playoff performances and probowlers while the worst pick up points for draft opportunities and playing in tough divisions. However, when you look at the actual rankings and rationale it's pretty clear the rankings were extremely arbitrary and just based on personal opinion. That made it look like a repackaging of every other ranking story out there rather than trying to do something fun or interesting to fill time until training camp.

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