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Thread: In case Geno doesn't pan out...Kiper's early QB ratings for 2015 Draft.

  1. #1

    In case Geno doesn't pan out...Kiper's early QB ratings for 2015 Draft.

    Soon after the 2014 NFL draft concluded, I released my "too-early" Big Board for the 2015 NFL draft, a ranking that includes players who will be underclassmen during the 2014 college football season. It goes without saying that these rankings are preliminary, as I have hundreds of hours of evaluation ahead for the 2015 class.

    A couple of important notes about the rankings below:

    This isn't a straight Top 10 QB list because I've split them into seniors and underclassmen. I think it's important to rank seniors alone since they are the only players I can guarantee will be a part of the 2015 NFL draft process.

    In some instances I've included more than 10 players; if two or three guys are extremely close on my board, I simply tacked on the names.

    With those parameters in mind, here's an early look at the top QB prospects in the 2015 draft class.

    Top 5 senior quarterbacks


    1. Bryce Petty, Baylor Bears: He put up exceptional totals last season and should be in line for a big senior year with plenty of offensive talent still on hand around him. Petty piled 4,200-plus passing yards and had a near-perfect 32-3 TD-INT ratio last season. The Baylor offense is always going to create numbers as long as coach Art Briles is around, but Petty has skills that go beyond a good offense.



    2. Sean Mannion, Oregon State Beavers: The tall QB had a breakthrough season in 2013, with 37 TD throws and 4,662 passing yards, but now he must attack defenses without the services of WR Brandin Cooks, who was taken by the Saints in Round 1 of the 2014 draft. Mannion is accurate, but he doesn't generate the velocity on his passes you'd expect for someone his size. That's the big question for me going into 2014.



    3. Braxton Miller, Ohio State Buckeyes: A gifted runner, Miller improved his mechanics and footwork going into the 2013 season, but it's clear he's still as much an athlete as he is a QB in the way that he doesn't yet consistently anticipate people coming open but instead too often relies on his ability to extend plays seemingly as long as he wants. Miller's passing totals have improved, but his ability to anticipate in the passing game will define whether he's considered a QB worth taking in the top half of the draft. If he goes later, the athletic credentials could have some believing he could play another position.



    4. Taylor Kelly, Arizona State Sun Devils: He was arguably better as a sophomore, but Kelly certainly wasn't bad in 2013. While he lacks above-average arm strength and relies a great deal on underneath and intermediate accuracy, Kelly is athletic and tough, and he runs well and has a quick release. He anticipates well and is willing to take hits to get the ball out to the best option.



    5. Hutson Mason, Georgia Bulldogs: He filled in admirably for Aaron Murray at the end of last season and will get his shot to start in 2014 with Murray now a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. Mason should be helped by a very good running game this season.

    Top 5 underclassmen quarterbacks


    1. Jameis Winston, Florida State Seminoles: I'll repeat my notes from the Big Board, which hold up a few weeks later. In regards to his 2014 season: "He'll anticipate better and move with better precision in the pocket, and he'll do so while again being surrounded by a ton of talent. The question is whether he'll mature and find a way to move past what I personally consider major character concerns. He's a great football prospect, but he has a great deal of work to do to prove he's a player worthy of leading an NFL franchise. Maybe 2014 shouldn't be his final year in Tallahassee."



    2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon Ducks: Through two seasons as a starter, Mariota has 61 TD throws and just 10 INTs. And even while I'd never consider him a run-first QB, when he does run he's dangerous, as evidenced by his near 1,500 yards and his 7.3 yards per carry average. Mariota could have been a top-10 pick in the 2014 draft, but a return to school will benefit him. He has all the athletic credentials and can be very accurate for stretches, but he needs to anticipate a little better and gain a little strength. He's well on his way to challenging to be the top pick in 2015.



    3. Brett Hundley, UCLA Bruins: Since he burst on the scene in 2012, Hundley has consistently impressed with his ability to drive the ball down the field with ease. He might have the best arm in this draft class, and I think he's a smart pocket mover with a sense of when to climb to evade pressure. He just needs to be better with ball placement, where he can be pretty inconsistent. Overall, he's a very good prospect.



    4. Connor Cook, Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans' offense isn't exactly built to show off a QB's ability, but Cook did manage to put up some pretty decent totals last year even as the MSU receivers struggled to consistently hang on to the ball. Cook has good size at 6-4 and can really run. He has a strong arm and will continue to get better. A sleeper to be a future first-rounder.



    5A. Kevin Hogan, Stanford Cardinal: He should take a step forward this season with another good O-line and several outstanding weapons in the passing game, but Hogan has a long windup on his release and needs to clean up some things mechanically. He's a very good athlete and should continue to improve.



    5B. Jacob Coker, Alabama Crimson Tide: He nearly beat out Winston to start at Florida State, and is the favorite to be the starter for Nick Saban's team in 2014. Coker moves well, has a big arm and, if he starts, will have big-time weapons in wide receiver Amari Cooper and tight end O.J. Howard.

  2. #2
    I really like kevin hogan from stanford, not as a top 5-10 guy, but as a late first, early second round pick who has tons of experience under center, running play action, and in a pro offense. He has excellent size and can also run (not RGIII running, but similar to aaron rogers and luck).

  3. #3
    Unless the underclassmen improve a good deal, then the class looks underwhelming. Not many quality pocket passers. A lot of read option guys. Everyone is high on Mariota (I guess his tape kind of looks like Colin Kappernick) but really hard to determine whether his game translates to the NFL (Should throw Brett Hundley in the mix of uncertain but potentially awesome NFL QBs). Not sure I'd want to roll the dice with an early pick on either of these guys.

    Unclear whether Jameis Winston will declare. I admit I was not too impressed with his performance against Auburn in the championship game. He played ok, but not amazing. I was expecting more from him. Will have to watch him more closely this season. Not sure if his character warrants an early 1st round pick unless he plays lights out this year.

    Connor Cook really impressed late in the season against Ohio State and Stanford. Not real sure how he was the rest of the season, but is worth looking at this season.

    I'm not holding out much hope for the rest of the fellas but one or two guys will probably solidify their candidacy and some sleeper candidate will emerge like a Bortles.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by wskelly View Post
    Unless the underclassmen improve a good deal, then the class looks underwhelming. Not many quality pocket passers. A lot of read option guys. Everyone is high on Mariota (I guess his tape kind of looks like Colin Kappernick) but really hard to determine whether his game translates to the NFL (Should throw Brett Hundley in the mix of uncertain but potentially awesome NFL QBs). Not sure I'd want to roll the dice with an early pick on either of these guys.

    Unclear whether Jameis Winston will declare. I admit I was not too impressed with his performance against Auburn in the championship game. He played ok, but not amazing. I was expecting more from him. Will have to watch him more closely this season. Not sure if his character warrants an early 1st round pick unless he plays lights out this year.

    Connor Cook really impressed late in the season against Ohio State and Stanford. Not real sure how he was the rest of the season, but is worth looking at this season.

    I'm not holding out much hope for the rest of the fellas but one or two guys will probably solidify their candidacy and some sleeper candidate will emerge like a Bortles.
    Mariota really does have NFL qualities - arm strength, size and decision making, plus the ability to run.

    With winston, he has such god given ability, and is surronded with so much talent on that team, its hard to judge him. Can he read defenses, audible, etc? Those are tough questions for him, plus all his off the field stuff.

    I think this is a much better class then 2014 was.

  5. #5
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    i would take mariotta right now over smith and vick

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by eaglenj View Post
    Mariota really does have NFL qualities - arm strength, size and decision making, plus the ability to run.

    With winston, he has such god given ability, and is surronded with so much talent on that team, its hard to judge him. Can he read defenses, audible, etc? Those are tough questions for him, plus all his off the field stuff.

    I think this is a much better class then 2014 was.
    I agree that Mariota has the arm strength and speed. He is a little underweight for his height which could put his running at risk of exposing him to injury. I admit that I don't watch enough PAC 12 to know if he is a good decision maker, but I'll take your word for hit. With that said, his style of play screams to me college QB in a system too reliant on screen passes. I'd like to see how he does having to make NFL level throws on a consistent basis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ucrenegade View Post
    i would take mariotta right now over smith and vick
    And you'd take Manziel over both of them, you'd take Tebow over both of them, etc.

    You're not exactly a shining beacon when it comes to judging QB's.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ucrenegade View Post
    i would take mariotta right now over smith and vick
    Yes, but you also thought Tebow was a viable QB . . .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Untouchable View Post
    And you'd take Manziel over both of them, you'd take Tebow over both of them, etc.

    You're not exactly a shining beacon when it comes to judging QB's.
    Browns should be shopping for a new QB next year.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by wskelly View Post
    Unless the underclassmen improve a good deal, then the class looks underwhelming. Not many quality pocket passers. A lot of read option guys. Everyone is high on Mariota (I guess his tape kind of looks like Colin Kappernick) but really hard to determine whether his game translates to the NFL (Should throw Brett Hundley in the mix of uncertain but potentially awesome NFL QBs). Not sure I'd want to roll the dice with an early pick on either of these guys.

    Unclear whether Jameis Winston will declare. I admit I was not too impressed with his performance against Auburn in the championship game. He played ok, but not amazing. I was expecting more from him. Will have to watch him more closely this season. Not sure if his character warrants an early 1st round pick unless he plays lights out this year.

    Connor Cook really impressed late in the season against Ohio State and Stanford. Not real sure how he was the rest of the season, but is worth looking at this season.

    I'm not holding out much hope for the rest of the fellas but one or two guys will probably solidify their candidacy and some sleeper candidate will emerge like a Bortles.
    Auburn was stealing signs from FSU during the entire first half.

    Once FSU figured it out, Winston and the offense outscored Auburn by like 20 points in the second half. If not for blatant cheating, FSU's offense would have slaughtered Auburn and Winston would have had a bigger game than he did.

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    I'm actually shocked Winston gets such consideration.

    I don't know college football at all- all I know is he talks country and stole crab legs and is immature. That's actually enough for me to not draft him as my QB - it sounds like Vince Young/Ryan Leaf stuff. Does a billion dollar corporation hire him to lead it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Untouchable View Post
    And you'd take Manziel over both of them, you'd take Tebow over both of them, etc.

    You're not exactly a shining beacon when it comes to judging QB's.
    manziel yes

    tebow only over smith

    and just because i think tebow is a good QB doesn't mean I am wrong the rest of my life.

    besides they are just opinions.

    as far as manziel and mariotta it is close not sure who i would want first.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ucrenegade View Post
    manziel yes

    tebow only over smith

    and just because i think tebow is a good QB doesn't mean I am wrong the rest of my life.

    besides they are just opinions.

    as far as manziel and mariotta it is close not sure who i would want first.
    True, but it also destroys ANY credibility you may have on the subject and really eliminates any reason for someone to take what you say seriously. For anyone to come to the conclusion that Tebow was a good QB, or could become a good QB, is completely laughable.
    Last edited by sec.101row23; 06-10-2014 at 10:10 AM.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Chrebet_The_Man View Post
    Auburn was stealing signs from FSU during the entire first half.

    Once FSU figured it out, Winston and the offense outscored Auburn by like 20 points in the second half. If not for blatant cheating, FSU's offense would have slaughtered Auburn and Winston would have had a bigger game than he did.
    You think Auburn was up in the first half just because they knew FSU's signals? It wasn't the fact that Winston played poorly in the first half?

  15. #15
    A scout's write-up on how he evaluates QBs: http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2014-...marcus-mariota

    Regarding QuarterBacks
    These are the 4 Aspects of QuarterBacking that I focus on in my Scouting Reports:

    1 ~ Processing Speed
    2 ~ Precision
    3 ~ Pocket Presence
    4 ~ FirePower

    Processing Speed is my measure for a Player's capacity to Rapidly Read & React to the dynamically developing Tactical LandScape. This Capacity is crucial to the success of all 22 Players on the Field, but above all to the QuarterBack. Diagnostic Acuity supports this and is also crucial, but Knowledge without Processing Speed is fatal.

    Precision speaks above all to Mechanics: A QuarterBack's consistency with his Stance, his Set Up, and his Delivery. I refer to consistent Accuracy in the Short & Intermediate Zones, where the best Offenses all make their Bread & Butter. In breaking it down, I'm looking at Timing, Placement, and Leading Receivers to DayLight.

    Pocket Presence is all about how the QuarterBack responds to Pressure. Precision against mediocre Defenses or within simple Schemes matters not, if a QuarterBack mentally locks up under genuine Pressure against the better Defenses in The Only Games That Really Matter. Frankly, I'm not entirely sure that I even need this Category, because I strongly suspect that how a QuarterBack handles Pressure is far less about Testicular Fortitude than it is about Processing Speed.

    FirePower is another Category that I am ambivalent about including, for it is simply DownField Precision. Furthermore, I don't consider it anywhere near as Short & Intermediate Precision, because DownField Precision makes for lovely HighLight Footage, but it's Short & Intermediate Precision that Moves The Chains and wins Championships.

    Please note, if you will: I list FirePower last of the 4 Attributes I value most...and don't list 40 Speed at all.

    Beyond this point, my Fellow FootBall Fanatics, you will find a lengthy Dissertation about QuarterBacks. Should you wish to take a look, I will of course be honored. But should you wish to spare yourself, the actual Scouting Report is far below!!

    Yon Rambling Dissertation

    Arm Strength is vastly overrated, and scrambling ability, while exciting, is ultimately worse than useless, because History makes it clear that noteworthy Scramblers, over the years ~ and indeed, the same could be said about the thousands of QuarterBacks who've failed despite a great Arm ~ ultimately fail to focus all their energy on QuarterBacking.

    Mobility, alike, is vastly overrated. Steve Young is the only Scrambler who ever won a Super Bowl, and he won it because he was on a great team, because Barry Switzer can't coach at the NFL level or the CowBoys would've rolled the Miners again in 1994, and because he eased up on the scrambling. He became a QuarterBack.

    Mind you: I'd hardly suggest that Arm Strength isn't nice to have...But the temptation to let'er rip ~ and to relying on that Capacity ~ can have a crippling effect on developing those skills that most matter, deep in the Heart of Winter.

    And often they have been.

    Countless times, in fact.

    And don't get me started on Scrambling.

    Processing Speed and an insatiable Work Ethic, producing that relentless Devotion to mastering every possible Aspect of the Job ~ the Aspects I've listed above ~ and Balls are what ultimately win Championships.

    It's not as easy as simply counting the Rings, because Fortune & Circumstance play a large part in the Fates of Men.

    And it sure as Hell isn't racking up gaudy Statistic during the regular Season. It's the Capacity and the Will to do the thousands of little things that put one's team in the best position to win, day in and day out ~ and doing them well ~ that is the ultimate measure of any QuarterBack, albeit one ~ ironically ~ that's impossible to quantify.

    It's the ability to Read & React with Speed & deadly Accuracy against the nastiest, wiliest Defenses on the Planet, deep in the Heart of Winter...and the Will to dedicate Years to intensive Training & Study in order to be able to.

    That ~ and his willingness to Use The Whole Pig ~ is what once separated Tom Brady from the Pack.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by sec.101row23 View Post
    True, but it also destroys ANY credibility you may have on the subject and really eliminates any reason for someone to take what you say seriously. For anyone to come to the conclusion that Tebow was a good QB, or could become a good QB, is completely laughable.
    but yet people were saying ramsey,ratliff,and others could be good why don't they lose credibility why is it only people who think tebow is? like i said one opinion doesn't mean I shouldn't be able to post my opinions anymore.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ucrenegade View Post
    but yet people were saying ramsey,ratliff,and others could be good why don't they lose credibility why is it only people who think tebow is? like i said one opinion doesn't mean I shouldn't be able to post my opinions anymore.
    You can post them, just don't expect anyone to lend any credibility to them. The fact that you still think that Tebow is better than Geno just proves how poor you are at evaluating a QB.

  18. #18
    Dont win for Winston LOL

  19. #19
    I called Carr being the top SR and I am calling Devin Gardner this year. Not sure why people are jumping off that train. Devin Gardner, Sean Mannion, and Braxton Miller are my 1 2 3 in this SR class. Cole Stoudt, Garrett Grayson, Andrew Manley, and Nick Montana are the only other guys I would even watch. As far as underclass guys. Winston, Kiel, Lunt, Hogan, Driskel(yes I like him), Dak Prescott, Huntley, Mariota, and Cook are my top ten.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamers View Post
    I called Carr being the top SR and I am calling Devin Gardner this year. Not sure why people are jumping off that train. Devin Gardner, Sean Mannion, and Braxton Miller are my 1 2 3 in this SR class. Cole Stoudt, Garrett Grayson, Andrew Manley, and Nick Montana are the only other guys I would even watch. As far as underclass guys. Winston, Kiel, Lunt, Hogan, Driskel(yes I like him), Dak Prescott, Huntley, Mariota, and Cook are my top ten.
    That is a horrid senior class in your rankings. Gardner couldn't hit a WR that was open 10 yards in front of him, he has absolutely no pocket presence. Mannion doesn't have the arm, McCarron version 2.
    Miller is a long shot, I don't think the football smarts are there but he is an intriguing prospect.

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