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Thread: Back to the mean with TOs

  1. #1
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    Back to the mean with TOs

    It's amazing to think we only recovered 2 fumbles last year.
    That was the 1st time in NFL history a team recovered less than 3 fumbles!
    Obviously the reason we were 31st in the NFL in takeaways.
    That is totally unacceptable from a Ryan defense & with the players we have up front. My god we have 3 1st round picks in our front 7.
    I remember so many games where we forced TOs & we had 3 guys around the ball & didn't come up with it.
    Can't imagine that happening 2 years in a row so things should get back to the mean & that alone can win you 3-4 games in 2014.

  2. #2
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    You also have to include that over the course of the season we forced a reasonable number of fumbles, and that fumble recovery by the defense is more or less a random outcome when a fumble is forced. Those are pretty critical to making the full impact of your post felt.

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    Overall we outperformed our wins expectancy, so that is a prime regression candidate on the negative side. We are very unlikely to go like 5-1 again in games decided by one TD or less.

    However mitigating negative point differential regression are things like the fumbles margin and improvement by Geno. Therefore I don't think one can automatically assume a W/L regression. Anyway thanks for bringing up the fumbles point, not many realize that.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Astoria View Post
    Overall we outperformed our wins expectancy, so that is a prime regression candidate on the negative side. We are very unlikely to go like 5-1 again in games decided by one TD or less.

    However mitigating negative point differential regression are things like the fumbles margin and improvement by Geno. Therefore I don't think one can automatically assume a W/L regression. Anyway thanks for bringing up the fumbles point, not many realize that.
    There's still room for improvement.

    6-0 in games decided by a TD or less

  5. #5
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    We forced a hell of a lot more than 2 fumbles. Ball wasn't bouncing our way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman Harris View Post
    We forced a hell of a lot more than 2 fumbles. Ball wasn't bouncing our way.
    Eh actually we only forced 11, which is tied for 28th with New England (12 recoveries), Arizona (10 with a TD) and Carolina (10). Only team that had less was Cleveland with 9, they recovered 7 with a TD.

    So yeah, all things considered we have some room to improve here.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te.../fumblesForced

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    I knew it was more than 2.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JCappy View Post
    Eh actually we only forced 11, which is tied for 28th with New England (12 recoveries), Arizona (10 with a TD) and Carolina (10). Only team that had less was Cleveland with 9, they recovered 7 with a TD.

    So yeah, all things considered we have some room to improve here.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te.../fumblesForced
    Wow, that stat actually backs up the fact that NE was INCREDIBLY lucky last year. They forced 11 fumbles but recovered 12.

  9. #9
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    There was an article in grantland about this. http://grantland.com/features/nfl-st...cting-success/

    The funny thing is, they had four factors that will affect teams and how they will regress to the mean. The Jets were among the luckiest in 2 (Point Diff, record in close games) among the unluckiest in 2 (turnover diff, def/st points allowed).

    I suspect that teams with young QBs have a tendency to lose more blowout games (and also have a worse TO diff), but I haven't studied it by any means. As everyone knows, the season comes down to one basic piece... can Geno Smith make the leap from worst statistical QB in the NFL to "middle of the pack" (middle of the pack would be 60% passing, 23 TDs 12 INTs, QB Rating of 85, 4000 yards passing (about 250/game).
    Given that he's young, even 20 Tds, 15 INTs, QB rating of 80 would make a huge difference. Since 2005 the Jets have had one season where they were even above average passing offense, and that was in 2006.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman Harris View Post
    I knew it was more than 2.
    We forced 11 but but only recovered 2.
    How about the fumbles that didn't go our way vs the Pats (Hill drop bounces off his foot directly to the Pats), Edelman fumbles twice bounces right back to him, Brady get ball knocked out bounces perfectly right back to him. We had some really sh*tty breaks last year.

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