European ensemble mean and operational in agreement of a tropical cyclone around this time for s Florida. It shows below avg pressures on the Mean, and while the ladder shows a well developed cyclone. Safe to say I am confident on a tropical cyclone hitting the conus for me to interrupt with this post. I post only when I am confident.
Some global models indicate a tropical cyclone hitting s Florida including Keys and or Miami in the next 10 days. Alert for travelers.
With a positive Madden Julian Oscillation taking place, I would somewhat agree with your assessment. However you seem to completely favor the European vs NAM models. Right now I think that it is too soon to call this one.