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Thread: Bad Day for the Draft Gurus

  1. #1
    While I am less than thrilled with our day one, I can see our defense playing much better if Hobson lives up to the second round value where we picked him. I think that we overpaid to move up but there was an early run on DTs and we got the highest rated guy at the position. The Askew pick was wierd but I didn't think that Sowell could gill Anderson's shoes either.

    On reflection, what upset me the most about the draft yesterday is that we passed on players that were rated higher than the guys that we took. Based on the value boards on many draft websites, the Bengals look much smarter than our FO. On further inspection, we weren't the only team that went well off the beaten path to find our players.

    Wayne Hunter did 37 reps of the 225lb bench press. A little raw but he should go at the top of round two. Nope, middle of round three. Taylor Jacobs should be a sure first rounder. He may slide to the bottom of round one because teams may prefer Kelley Washington. Nope, rounds two and three respectively.

    Usually the gurus seem to get it right. Sure, the Bengals or Cardinals will make a goofy pick but the draft will be somewhat close to what they expect. I am not sure if past drafts were closer because GMs listened to the gurus or because the gurus did their homework. For whatever reason, the mock drafts were way off this year. It was a bad day for the draft gurus because most GMs obviously didn't listen to them. They make their living evaluating talent just like the NFL front offices do. It will be interesting to see who was right when the players take the field.

  2. #2
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by James Hasty[/i]@Apr 27 2003, 08:34 AM
    [b] While I am less than thrilled with our day one, I can see our defense playing much better if Hobson lives up to the second round value where we picked him. I think that we overpaid to move up but there was an early run on DTs and we got the highest rated guy at the position. The Askew pick was wierd but I didn't think that Sowell could gill Anderson's shoes either.

    On reflection, what upset me the most about the draft yesterday is that we passed on players that were rated higher than the guys that we took. Based on the value boards on many draft websites, the Bengals look much smarter than our FO. On further inspection, we weren't the only team that went well off the beaten path to find our players.

    Wayne Hunter did 37 reps of the 225lb bench press. A little raw but he should go at the top of round two. Nope, middle of round three. Taylor Jacobs should be a sure first rounder. He may slide to the bottom of round one because teams may prefer Kelley Washington. Nope, rounds two and three respectively.

    Usually the gurus seem to get it right. Sure, the Bengals or Cardinals will make a goofy pick but the draft will be somewhat close to what they expect. I am not sure if past drafts were closer because GMs listened to the gurus or because the gurus did their homework. For whatever reason, the mock drafts were way off this year. It was a bad day for the draft gurus because most GMs obviously didn't listen to them. They make their living evaluating talent just like the NFL front offices do. It will be interesting to see who was right when the players take the field. [/b][/quote]
    If you really belive that GM's get even an ounce of opinion from the so called draft gurus, well then Mr Hasty, I have to question what you know of the drafting process. That has to be one of the silliest things that I have heard.

    Maybe the jets should fire their whole personnel and scouting department and buy 10 magazines and scour the internet. That way they could achieve "guru" acceptancy.

    That was a funny post

  3. #3
    Have you ever seen a draft where the picks strayed so far from what we though would happen?

    Do you think that no one in any front office reads Mel Kiper's book?

    I am not pretending to know why past drafts went pretty much according to plan. Usually, one or two guys drop but most players are selected in round where they are projects. For whatever reason, the gurus (Kiper, etc) were way off this year.

    It seems that some people didn;t do their homework this year. My point was that either the GMs or the gurus got it wrong in a big way. When the players suit up we will see who was right.

  4. #4
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by James Hasty[/i]@Apr 27 2003, 08:55 AM
    [b] Have you ever seen a draft where the picks strayed so far from what we though would happen?

    Do you think that no one in any front office reads Mel Kiper's book?

    I am not pretending to know why past drafts went pretty much according to plan. Usually, one or two guys drop but most players are selected in round where they are projects. For whatever reason, the gurus (Kiper, etc) were way off this year.

    It seems that some people didn;t do their homework this year. My point was that either the GMs or the gurus got it wrong in a big way. When the players suit up we will see who was right. [/b][/quote]
    Actually, this draft held perfect form through the first 12 picks or so. THAT was the unusual part of it. The dominoes fell EXACTY as even many of the so called pundits thought they would have.

    The malaise that follwed was not far off any other draft, if you have foillowed them closely. And NO, I do not belive the FO's read Kiper's draft guides, unless they want bathroom reading to laugh

  5. #5
    Only a fool would believe that people in the front office of NFL team do not read what guys like Mel Kiper write.

    Sure, they read them. After all, it is not only free advice from another source, but, "Do you think that anyone is so arrogant as to think that maybe they could not possibly miss something that someone else could pick up?"

    But, on the other hand, each NFL team pays big money to their own people to acquire the best of the best. Each team will most certainly listen to the advice of the "people that they pay" before ever taking the advice of the arm-chair experts out there.

    But don't be a fool; of course they read what these guys say; if only to reinforce what they already know.

  6. #6
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by Evsbabes[/i]@Apr 27 2003, 09:20 AM
    [b] Only a fool would believe that people in the front office of NFL team do not read what guys like Mel Kiper write.

    Sure, they read them. After all, it is not only free advice from another source, but, "Do you think that anyone is so arrogant as to think that maybe they could not possibly miss something that someone else could pick up?"

    But, on the other hand, each NFL team pays big money to their own people to acquire the best of the best. Each team will most certainly listen to the advice of the "people that they pay" before ever taking the advice of the arm-chair experts out there.

    But don't be a fool; of course they read what these guys say; if only to reinforce what they already know. [/b][/quote]
    Totally silly. If they choose to just use them to just "reinforce" what they already know. Again, why pay their own people.

    Yeah, and I also beleive that The FO listens to posters on internet boards about what pick to make.

    Do you know where the so called "pundits" get a lot of their advice? They follow what college coaches tell them, for the most part.

    Do you also want to know where they also get some of their info? From agents. Some odf these so called pundits have very tight relationships with agents. Seem a little seedy to you? Well it is.

    Pro personnel scouts laugh at those guys. Robert Irsay was right when he said "Mel Kiper? Who is Mel Kiper? My mailman knows more than Mel Kiper"

  7. #7
    I believe most of the nfl teams have copies of the major guides and use them. Not for the player evaluations but tidbits like what
    a coach or teamate may have said about a player. These guy compile a lot of info on a player if they repeat something they heard you can be sure aa nfl FO will check it out. If Kiper,Dave teThomas, Ourlads, Gosselin, or someone like that prints a negaative comment about a person they will check it out.

  8. #8
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    The NFL fron offices read this stuff just to make sure they don't miss anything. But Kiper is an entertainer first and foremost. No one's perfect. But I suspect that Kiper is a lot more secure in his job than scouts, which allows him to be more outrageous than the pros. When Kiper screamed that Jeff Lageman and Jim Harbaugh were terrible picks, there was no cost to him when they turned into solid pros. I can remember him praising the Jets for taking Reggie Rembert , a WR from West Viriginia years ago, in the 2nd round, and the guy was a total waste. Again-no cost to him.

    The whole thing is at it's core an educated crapshoot. I'm sorry to break it to you, but don't really pretend that anyone posting here, no matter how well-read and researched, knows better than the pros. You may very well be capable of being a pro scout, but you aren't one. And even those pros can make mistakes.

    And frankly, with the 2 guys from Michigan, may be Bradway wanted to play chalk after getting burned with poor little Bryan"Lil Abner" Thomas of UAB. He could be learning how this works a little better with each draft.

  9. #9
    Compared to the budget, expertise, and manpower that any of the pro teams bring to bear on the scouting effort, these so called Draft gurus are a joke.


    I don't know if any of you guys caught last Friday's USA Today's sport section. There was a side bar titled: Jet's cover all the bases in talent search.

    It said:

    A Glance at the numbers behind the New York Jets' preparation for this weekend's NFL draft.

    Size of personnel department (scouts, administrators, staff): 16
    Miles traveled: 350,000
    Player prospects scouted: 1,100
    Total reports on all prospects: 4059

    ------------

    I don't know why they chose the Jet's. Probably typical of any of the teams.

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