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Thread: Latest Gallup Poll: Kerry leads Bush by 7 points!

  1. #1
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    [b]Kerry leads Bush in new poll[/b]
    Bush's approval numbers dip
    Tuesday, February 3, 2004 Posted: 1:38 AM EST (0638 GMT)

    (CNN) -- Sen. John Kerry, the front-runner among Democrats vying for their party's presidential nomination, leads President Bush in a head-to-head matchup, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.

    Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and retired Gen. Wesley Clark also emerge as formidable opponents, according to hypothetical matchups in the poll, which found a decline in Bush's approval numbers.

    The poll, based on interviews with 1,001 adult Americans, including 562 likely voters, was conducted in the days after the New Hampshire primary.

    The poll underscores both Kerry's momentum after his wins in New Hampshire and Iowa, and increased favorability among Democrats in general as they dominate political news with their primaries and steady criticism of Bush.

    The general election is slightly more than nine months away and Bush has yet to launch his campaign in earnest, meaning the poll numbers are all but certain to shift.

    When the 562 likely voters were asked for their choice from a Bush v. Kerry race, 53 percent of those picked Kerry, and 46 percent favored Bush.

    When that same group was asked to pick between Edwards and Bush, the numbers were 49 percent for Edwards and 48 percent for Bush. With a Bush/Clark face-off, Bush was favored by 50 percent of those surveyed and Clark, 47 percent.

    Howard Dean, the onetime front-runner in the Democratic field, had a poorer showing against Bush, 45 percent to 52 percent for the incumbent.

    The question of choice for president among likely voters had a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin or error was different for other questions, as some questions were posed to likely voters, others to just Democrats and others to all adults surveyed.

    Kerry was the overwhelming choice of registered Democrats for the presidential nomination. Support for Kerry as the Democratic nominee stood at 49 percent, compared to 14 percent for Dean and 13 percent for Edwards. The other Democratic candidates were in the single digits.

    The poll showed Bush's job approval rating at 49 percent among all the adults surveyed, the first time since he became president that his job approval has dipped below 50 percent. A month ago his rating was at 60 percent, as he enjoyed a spike in approval after the capture of Saddam Hussein.

    A majority of those polled now say they disapprove of Bush's handing of the economy, foreign affairs, the situation in Iraq and health care. The poll also showed the nation evenly divided -- 49 percent to 49 percent -- on the question of whether it was worth going to war in Iraq, marking the first time approval of the war has dropped below 50 percent.

    However, a majority of those polled -- 54 percent -- said they do not believe Bush deliberately misled the country on whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, while 43 percent said they believe there was deception.

    Despite the apparent rising fortunes of Democrats, the poll showed Bush enjoyed advantages over his rivals in several areas.

    For example Bush was seen as a stronger leader than Kerry -- 53 percent to 39 percent --and, despite Kerry's military service in Vietnam, more patriotic than the senator from Massachusetts, 49 percent to 34 percent.

    And,on the question of Iraq, more Americans trusted Bush than Kerry, 50 percent to 44 percent.

    CNN Polling Director Keating Holland contributed

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    Interesting.

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    note how voters trust Bush as more patriotic, better in national security and to handle Iraq.

    Tail it wasn't too long ago when Dean was in the lead of all these meaningless polls

    the Bush campaign hasn't even started in earnest, its a long road to the white house and im still not convinced that John Heinz Kerry can show in the heartland.

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    tail just to followup i don't think John Kerry is a bad man... but history is not on his side:

    No NON-SOUTHERN democratic candidate has won the general election since JFK

    No CONGRESS democratic candidate has won the general election since JFK

    Kerry has the same initials but we all can agree he doesn't have the charisma of JFK - that wife of his is good for a quote but the pickle queen isn't Jackie O. just like the election for 3rd grade class president at the end of the day this is nothing more than a popularity contest

    in the deep south, southwest, midwest and bible belt history has proven time and time again the John Kerry-type candidate will get creamed.

    those who do not learn from the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them.

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Feb 3 2004, 11:49 AM
    [b] it wasn't too long ago when Dean was in the lead of all these meaningless polls

    [/b][/quote]
    Bingo, bit.

    Kerry's popularity at this point -- while obviously critical to the Dem primaries -- is meaningless to the November election. No matter who the Dems put up there, I believe it will come down to how people feel about Bush by then rather than any love for the Dem candidate -- yet another election in which people vote against one candidate moreso than for the other.

    So much can happen between now and the election to affect voter's perception of Bush -- and I'm not even talking about negative campaigning, which promises to reach new lows on both sides. OBL could be captured...the economy could surge or tank (keep an eye on Soros)...wmd's (or their fate) could be found or administration's manipulation of intel could be revealed...another major terrorist act could occur here at home or more positive fallout from Sadaam's removal could occur in the MidEast (ie Syria, Iran coming clean a la Libya)...the list is endless.

    Whatever happens, this is going to be a campaign trail for the books, I'll tell you that....

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    Similar polls had Carter ahead of Reagan,Dukakis ahead of Bush I, Bush I ahead of Clinton, Gore ahead of Bush II. So it means very little.In fact, CLinton in his first run for the nomination didn't lock it up for a long time vs. Tsongas. Kerry has received tons of free press and spent a small fortune on primary ads while Bush hasn't done anything other than add to his campaign chest. Bush has made huge mistakes with this drunken sailor spedning spree and the immigration fiasco. But it's a long way to November.

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    but Kerry never LIED about reasons to go to war against an old enemy.

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    Kerry voted in favor of the war, and had access to much the same intelligence. And that was hardly the only reason to oust Saddam.

    A Tale of Two Reports
    David Kay and Lord Hutton.
    By Christopher Hitchens
    Posted Friday, Jan. 30, 2004, at 8:55 AM PT

    Those who love the Near East are fond of repeating the legendary anecdotes of one Nasreddin Hodja, a sort of Ottoman Muslim Aesop of the region with a big following among Greeks and Greek Cypriots as well as among Turks, Syrians, Lebanese, Iraqis, and others. On one occasion, this folkloric wise man went to the hammam, or Turkish steam bath. His undistinguished and modest demeanor did not recommend him to the attendants, who gave him brief and perfunctory attention before hustling him out to make room for more prosperous customers. They were duly astonished when he produced an enormous tip from under his robes, and when he paid a return visit some time later, they were waiting for him with the richest and warmest towels, the longest and most detailed rubdown, the finest oils, the most leisurely service of sherbet, a long soak, and the most obsequious attendants. As he departed, the old man dropped a few meager coppers into their outstretched palms and, when they began to protest, told them: "The last tip was for this time. This tip is for the previous time."

    So Saddam Hussein finally got his reward for all the unpunished times. Well, history doesn't move in a straight line, and irony is a dialectical hairpin. But if he really didn't have any stores of unlawful WMD, it was very dumb of him to act as if he still did or perhaps even to believe that he still did. And it seems perfectly idiotic of anybody to complain that we have now found this out (always assuming that we have, and that there's no more disclosure to come). This highly pertinent and useful discovery could only be made by way of regime change. And the knowledge that Iraq can be finally and fully certified as disarmed, and that it won't be able to rearm under a Caligula regime, is surely a piece of knowledge worth having in its own right and for its own sake.

    [b][i]David Kay and his colleagues in the post-1991 inspections met with every possible kind of evasion, deceit, and concealment. Then they had to watch as their most golden inside informers, the Kamel brothers, were lured back to Iraq by their father-in-law on a promise of safe conduct and put to death at once. Who would trust a word uttered by this gang, after that? It has since been established, by the Kay report, that there was a Baath plan to purchase weapons from North Korea, that materials had been hidden in the homes of scientists, and that there was a concealment program run by Qusai Hussein in person. This may look less menacing now that it has been exposed to the daylight, but there was no reason not to take it extremely seriously when it was presented as latent.[/i][/b]

    How come our intelligence agencies were so easily misled? This is an excellent question, which has lain upon the table ever since they left us defenseless in September 2001. The case for a thorough purge of the CIA would have been easier to make if the antiwar liberals had not gone on parroting the Langley line, which was to underestimate on some things and to overstate on others. The booby prize here goes (again) to Maureen Dowd, who in her column on David Kay on Jan. 29 said that the agency was "probably relying too much on the Arabian Nights tales of Ahmad Chalabi, eager to spread the word of Saddam's imaginary nuclear-tipped weapons juggernaut because it suited his own ambitions—and that of his Pentagon pals." As everyone with the slightest knowledge is well aware, the CIA was smearing and sabotaging Chalabi until the week of the fall of Baghdad and continues to do so. It remains, within the institutions of the U.S. government, the most devout opponent of regime change with the arguable exception of the Department of State.

    If you want another free laugh, or another glimpse of the tiny-minded literalism of the neutralists and isolationists, take a look at the other "scandal" that has just been exploded by Lord Hutton's inquiry in London. One of Tony Blair's advisers, Jonathan Powell, changed the wording of a report in the following way. It had originally read: "Saddam Hussein is willing to use chemical and biological weapons if he believes his regime is under threat." The Blairite alteration removed the last eight words. Since everything was a threat in Saddam's disordered mind, and since he had used such weapons in the past as weapons of aggression inside and outside his own borders, the only "politicization of intelligence" would have occurred if the eight words had been left in, to give the impression that he would only fight in self-defense. The excised phrase lingers on, as a reminder that the opponents of regime change also believed in the existence of the weapons.

    The British government's claim that such weaponry was deployable within "45" minutes is irrelevant from both sides, since if the weapons weren't there they couldn't be used at all, and if they were there they presumably existed in some condition of readiness. Many newspapers in London sold extra copies on the bannered "45 Minutes" headline and have been in a vengeful state ever since over their own credulity. That can't be helped. In this ontological argument, nobody claimed that there was no WMD problem to begin with. (German intelligence reported to Gerhard Schröder that Saddam was within measurable distance of getting a nuke: That didn't deter the chancellor in the least from adopting an utterly complacent approach.)

    It's been a few weeks since I have heard any new conspiracy theories about the suicide of Dr. David Kelly, who was himself a firm believer in "regime change" as the precondition for inspections. It has now been established that his identity was given away by Andrew Gilligan, a BBC journalist whose reportorial standards were a byword before he became famous. The most inventive theory I have heard this week is that Lord Hutton is an Ulsterman and that Gilligan is a republican-sounding kind of Irish name, and that this is all a subtext of the age-old struggle between Orange and Green. That'll do fine to keep the conversation going, as this ridiculous and paltry controversy recedes into the past.

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by jets5ever[/i]@Feb 3 2004, 11:47 AM
    [b] Interesting. [/b][/quote]
    Means nothing....once the media starts to dig into Kerry's record of pure hypocrisy and liberalism he'll drop like a rock.....just as dean did.

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by Come Back to NY+Feb 3 2004, 07:46 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (Come Back to NY @ Feb 3 2004, 07:46 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin--jets5ever[/i]@Feb 3 2004, 11:47 AM
    [b] Interesting. [/b][/quote]
    Means nothing....once the media starts to dig into Kerry&#39;s record of pure hypocrisy and liberalism he&#39;ll drop like a rock.....just as dean did. [/b][/quote]
    Sounds like wishful thinking on your part CBNY&#33;

    For the first time I actually sense some desperation from you.

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by tailgators+Feb 3 2004, 09:55 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (tailgators @ Feb 3 2004, 09:55 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> [quote]Originally posted by -Come Back to NY@Feb 3 2004, 07:46 PM
    [b] <!--QuoteBegin--jets5ever[/i]@Feb 3 2004, 11:47 AM
    [b] Interesting. [/b][/quote]
    Means nothing....once the media starts to dig into Kerry&#39;s record of pure hypocrisy and liberalism he&#39;ll drop like a rock.....just as dean did. [/b][/quote]
    Sounds like wishful thinking on your part CBNY&#33;

    For the first time I actually sense some desperation from you. [/b][/quote]
    Desperate? :o nice try..... ;)

    Desperate is guys like Terry McClueless of the donkey party saying the President was AWOL when he was honorably discharged. desperate are people reaching out to morons like michael moore-on for material. Desperate is CNN reporting all day long on the Honorable discharge papers ffrom the President and reciting an article from the NY Times that dates back to 7/2000 stating GWB made up all required time in the guard (after spending the summer working on a political campaign) as is allowed by the National Guard yet it is nowhere on the front page of their site&#33;

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by Come Back to NY+Feb 3 2004, 10:07 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (Come Back to NY @ Feb 3 2004, 10:07 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> [quote]Originally posted by -tailgators@Feb 3 2004, 09:55 PM
    [b] [quote]Originally posted by -Come Back to NY@Feb 3 2004, 07:46 PM
    [b] <!--QuoteBegin--jets5ever[/i]@Feb 3 2004, 11:47 AM
    [b] Interesting. [/b][/quote]
    Means nothing....once the media starts to dig into Kerry&#39;s record of pure hypocrisy and liberalism he&#39;ll drop like a rock.....just as dean did. [/b][/quote]
    Sounds like wishful thinking on your part CBNY&#33;

    For the first time I actually sense some desperation from you. [/b][/quote]
    Desperate? :o nice try..... ;)

    Desperate is guys like Terry McClueless of the donkey party saying the President was AWOL when he was honorably discharged. desperate are people reaching out to morons like michael moore-on for material. Desperate is CNN reporting all day long on the Honorable discharge papers ffrom the President and reciting an article from the NY Times that dates back to 7/2000 stating GWB made up all required time in the guard (after spending the summer working on a political campaign) as is allowed by the National Guard yet it is nowhere on the front page of their site&#33; [/b][/quote]
    CBNY, your desperation is evident&#33;

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by tailgators+Feb 3 2004, 10:24 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (tailgators @ Feb 3 2004, 10:24 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> [quote]Originally posted by -Come Back to NY@Feb 3 2004, 10:07 PM
    [b] [quote]Originally posted by -tailgators@Feb 3 2004, 09:55 PM
    [b] [quote]Originally posted by -Come Back to NY@Feb 3 2004, 07:46 PM
    [b] <!--QuoteBegin--jets5ever[/i]@Feb 3 2004, 11:47 AM
    [b] Interesting. [/b][/quote]
    Means nothing....once the media starts to dig into Kerry&#39;s record of pure hypocrisy and liberalism he&#39;ll drop like a rock.....just as dean did. [/b][/quote]
    Sounds like wishful thinking on your part CBNY&#33;

    For the first time I actually sense some desperation from you. [/b][/quote]
    Desperate? :o nice try..... ;)

    Desperate is guys like Terry McClueless of the donkey party saying the President was AWOL when he was honorably discharged. desperate are people reaching out to morons like michael moore-on for material. Desperate is CNN reporting all day long on the Honorable discharge papers ffrom the President and reciting an article from the NY Times that dates back to 7/2000 stating GWB made up all required time in the guard (after spending the summer working on a political campaign) as is allowed by the National Guard yet it is nowhere on the front page of their site&#33; [/b][/quote]
    CBNY, your desperation is evident&#33; [/b][/quote]
    just as long as you believe...that&#39;s fine by me. 270 days &#39;till victory for GWB&#33; :D

  14. #14
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    TG.....I don&#39;t think Kerry has a snowballs chance in hell of beating Bush.....

    Maybe I&#39;m right or maybe I&#39;m wrong.....at this point no one really knows.....but.....if you&#39;re willing to make a friendly wager I&#39;ll be more than happy to oblige.

    Say.....something to the effect of you putting the signature of my choice { something to the effect of how our 2nd term president won because he really was the better man } at the end of your posts for a specified period of time and I of course would put whatever { politically relevant and tasteful } signature you&#39;d want about Kerry or Bush if Kerry indeed won.

    Lemme know what you think.

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by Come Back to NY+Feb 3 2004, 07:46 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (Come Back to NY @ Feb 3 2004, 07:46 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin--jets5ever[/i]@Feb 3 2004, 11:47 AM
    [b] Interesting. [/b][/quote]
    Means nothing....once the media starts to dig into Kerry&#39;s record of pure hypocrisy and liberalism he&#39;ll drop like a rock.....just as dean did. [/b][/quote]
    note that the only one bashing Kerry right now is DEAN

    that&#39;s cause the GOP wants Kerry to win

    he ripe to be creamed in a general election

    [b]tail[/b] if you make a bet with MD JET be sure to make the same one with me... i&#39;d vote for Kerry but MD JET is right when he says Kerry doesn&#39;t have a snowball&#39;s chance in hell of beating Bush.

  16. #16
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti+Feb 4 2004, 01:17 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (bitonti @ Feb 4 2004, 01:17 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> [quote]Originally posted by -Come Back to NY@Feb 3 2004, 07:46 PM
    [b] <!--QuoteBegin--jets5ever[/i]@Feb 3 2004, 11:47 AM
    [b] Interesting. [/b][/quote]
    Means nothing....once the media starts to dig into Kerry&#39;s record of pure hypocrisy and liberalism he&#39;ll drop like a rock.....just as dean did. [/b][/quote]
    note that the only one bashing Kerry right now is DEAN

    that&#39;s cause the GOP wants Kerry to win

    he ripe to be creamed in a general election

    [b]tail[/b] if you make a bet with MD JET be sure to make the same one with me... i&#39;d vote for Kerry but MD JET is right when he says Kerry doesn&#39;t have a snowball&#39;s chance in hell of beating Bush. [/b][/quote]
    My bet ceiling is 25 cents.

    bit... weren&#39;t you the same guy who said Chad would be out for the season?

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by tailgators[/i]@Feb 4 2004, 02:06 PM
    [b] My bet ceiling is 25 cents.

    [/b][/quote]
    That&#39;s all well and good.....but.....I didn&#39;t ask to wager ca&#036;h { although I wouldn&#39;t be against it }.....

    It was just a friendly signature wager.....let&#39;s say 1 year in duration.....

    Whaddya say ?.....Wouldn&#39;t you be proud to put something like " President Bush is a great man and deserved to beat the Limousine Liberal Kerry in the general election " .....or something similar to that at the end of your posts.....

    You IN or OUT ?.....

  18. #18
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by MARYLAND JET+Feb 4 2004, 02:29 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (MARYLAND JET @ Feb 4 2004, 02:29 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin--tailgators[/i]@Feb 4 2004, 02:06 PM
    [b] My bet ceiling is 25 cents.

    [/b][/quote]
    That&#39;s all well and good.....but.....I didn&#39;t ask to wager ca&#036;h { although I wouldn&#39;t be against it }.....

    It was just a friendly signature wager.....let&#39;s say 1 year in duration.....

    Whaddya say ?.....Wouldn&#39;t you be proud to put something like " President Bush is a great man and deserved to beat the Limousine Liberal Kerry in the general election " .....or something similar to that at the end of your posts.....

    You IN or OUT ?..... [/b][/quote]
    The signatures I&#39;d have you post are too vulgar for this site.

  19. #19
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by tailgators[/i]@Feb 4 2004, 02:37 PM
    [b] The signatures I&#39;d have you post are too vulgar for this site. [/b][/quote]
    LOL.....I guess I&#39;ll take that as a NO.

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