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Thread: NYC Unemployment Rate....Not a Pretty Scene

  1. #1
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    From Last weeks' Daily News:

    [url=http://www.nydailynews.com/07-16-2004/business/story/212512p-183024c.html]http://www.nydailynews.com/07-16-2004/busi...2p-183024c.html[/url]

    When looking at the Productivy, Jobs, and economic figures in this country, it's like a freaking kalidescope. I always considered the NYC economic track to be a bellwhether of the overall U.S. picture. The positive U.S. numbers in comparison is saying otherwise.....

    My questions to you fellas are:

    What do you read from this? Is this a short-term post-911 hiccup?

    What does this say about NYC as a whole?....Rent/mortgage prices (As well the building of residential quarters) have skyrocketed because of the assumed demand for it here. But if people aren't finding jobs quite as easily, aren't we headed for a catosthropic housing bust in this city?

    You guys all know i'm considering applying to several top tier MBA programs next year. Here is a message board post by a 2001 MBA graduate who gives a scary (for me at least) picture of what things are like for freshly minted young professionals in this city (I remember LatinLawyer sharing similar stories).

    [quote][b]I'm posting this so that others can realize the truly horrific economy out there, certainly not helped by War Monger-No Weapons of Mass Destruction Found Uncle Bush. Suffice it to say that I'm a 2001 MBA graduate of a Top 15 bschool. That should cover a great deal of ground and a # of bschools.* Post 9/11, and since the beginning of 2002 I've been working at a number of Temp Jobs. Yes, I've been a Nomad for almost 3 years. Lawstudly, just like your law school buddy friends, I'm amongst the millions of unemployed lost-hope people out there who've been temping for a few years now, or not working at all.*

    According to the Bureau of Labor Stats, I'm employed and have been employed since Jan 2002, but in my opinion I've actually been unemployed for 3 years.* My fulltime MBA job offer was rescinded in Spring 2001, a few months before 9/11.* I landed a job in May just after graduating in PE.* Although it paid more than my pre-MBA job, it paid less than your typical MBA salary type job because by then the companies knew that the tables had turned and they have the upper hand in hiring.* Due to the economy, a # of other factors and restructuring and 9/11, I was laid-off in Dec 2001.* Since then, I've been a Temp Job Nomad, hopping from one company and assignment to another. Yes, I've tried to get permanent positions within each company I've temped in.* But the cos. are simply taking their sweet time interviewing a billion other equally qualified unemployed people. I've worked in IB, trading and financial services pre-MBA. Many firms and employment agencies alike have told me upfront that I'm overqualified without actually coming right out and saying it.*

    Right now, I'm temping in a top 5 IB.* You wonder why companies don't consider the temp pool first when hiring for a perm position?? I've wondered that myself. Well, in a nutshell the reason is that 1) although I've expressed my interest in perm spots to the HR dept, I've fallen through the cracks because they have so many other temps looking for perm 2) just like the other temps, I'm just a dispensable number because we basically go through the same 1 wk training program that perm hires do, but we don't get paid a real salary and medical insurance.* They can easily replace a temp with another. Sort of like just in time hiring. 3) Many firms force their temps to work temp for 6-8 months before even considering them for a perm spot, and that's even IF there's a perm position open after the 6-8 month probationary period. The firms don't want to pay the agencies the finders' fee if they can help it.* They add another 3 months probation to that if you become an perm employee.* 4) Many managers in the departments view temps as 2nd hand damaged goods who are only good enough for temp jobs. Their attitude is that we're obviously not good enough for a perm job because they can easily get candidates from employment agencies who ARE working in fulltime permanent jobs.* Their attitude is that if we were that good enough to find perm jobs we would have found them already.* 5) Despite the hideous, horrible economy, people and companies are NOT as forgiving as people assume.* The automatic assumption about temp and unemployed workers is that we are marginal, 2nd rate workers who probably deserved to get fired, laid off - whatever you want to call it, while 94% of the employable population is still working.* 6) I truly believe that the unemployment rate is more like 8-10% because people like me who have given up looking for a real (permanent) job are not counted in the employable population, as well as people who've gone back to school to avoid the horrible non-hiring environment, people who started their own businesses, women who became homemakers and mothers, etc..* *

    Getting ANY MBA type job has now become all but a Pipe dream, and I've begun to believe that I'll be temping for the rest of my pathetic life without medical insurance.* I've lost ALL hope. The only hope I may have left is winning the lottery (or megamillions) because although the odds are 1 in 80+ Million, you've got to be in it to win it. [/b][/quote]

  2. #2
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    This guy (the anti-Bush, unemployed MBA, NOT TerryBadway...just to be clear) is a total idiot.

    First off, he says he went to a "top 15 B-school". Sorry to break it to him, but there are about 50 schools that consider themselved "top 15", I would really doubt that he was from a legit program. That being said, his inability to find a job in NYC (with a solid degree) is hard to believe, unless he has other "unemployable" qualities, like a weak resume, etc.

    Although the last few years have seen a tough job market in NYC, i know that in the last 6 months, all of the top I-banks and brokerage firms are booming, and if this guy is legit, he should have no problem landing a job (instead of temping at a "top 5 I-bank).

    Newsflash to this guy, but as of about 2 months ago, CSFB was hiring folks directly out of B-schools, starting salary around 250k. Plus bonus.

    So to answer your question, no, I don't think that there's a job shortage in NYC, if you play your cards right, you'll be fine.

  3. #3
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    Terry, I always peruse the online state and federal jobs. There's alot of job's available for people with bachelor degrees. Maybe they don't start you out at $50,000 a year, but they are a foot in a door, and the benefits are excellent. My wife got her state job, that way. Sent in the application fee, took the test, got the job. She works hard, doesn't make alot of money, but like I said the benefits and pension/savings plan are excellent. As soon as I finish, I plan on taking every federal exam I can get my hands on.

    We want to re-locate to Virginia. I have total confidence we will both land permanent positions.

    Don't really know what to say about the NYC angle, because I've never lived there, or worked there.

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    What ever your poltical beliefs, for too long, Democrats think they can make NYC a soup-to-nuts gold-plated social saftety net with never-ending social services, and Republicans like Bloomberg think you can create a Manhattan Disneyworld for the rich. Problem is, they both use the financial sector as the cash cow to finance their crazy schemes. And financial services other than an address doesn't physically have to be in Manhattan in an age fo computers. The idea that businesses, new or old, will be attracted to a place where the cost of everything is way out of whack with the rest of the country is ludicrous.

    NYC isn't a belleweather for fthe economy. With every boom and bust of Wall Street, fewer of the jobs come back. You cannot continually tax people and expect them to pay more for everything no matter how much polticians want to spout gibberish and hype. If you don't have a healthy middle class tax base, this will at some point get unsustainable. Guiliani, for all his faults, understood that middle class outer borough people are the backbone of New York. You cannot in good conscience send you kids to most public schools, so the calculus is obvious-when the realty taxes plus private/paraochial school tuition gets close to the cost of realty taxes elsewhere with good public schools, middle class people move. It happened in the 1960s and 70s, and it's on the verge of happening again.

    The bubble realty market cannot go on forvever.And if it's going to squeeze out hard-working guys like Terry B, that's not a good thing. But TB may find himself in Florida, the Carolinas, Georgia, Colorado, Nevada. And truth be told, the quality of life in those places might be better.

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    [quote][b]What ever your poltical beliefs, for too long, Democrats think they can make NYC a soup-to-nuts gold-plated social saftety net with never-ending social services, and Republicans like Bloomberg think you can create a Manhattan Disneyworld for the rich. Problem is, they both use the financial sector as the cash cow to finance their crazy schemes. And financial services other than an address doesn't physically have to be in Manhattan in an age fo computers. The idea that businesses, new or old, will be attracted to a place where the cost of everything is way out of whack with the rest of the country is ludicrous.

    NYC isn't a belleweather for fthe economy. With every boom and bust of Wall Street, fewer of the jobs come back. You cannot continually tax people and expect them to pay more for everything no matter how much polticians want to spout gibberish and hype. If you don't have a healthy middle class tax base, this will at some point get unsustainable. Guiliani, for all his faults, understood that middle class outer borough people are the backbone of New York. You cannot in good conscience send you kids to most public schools, so the calculus is obvious-when the realty taxes plus private/paraochial school tuition gets close to the cost of realty taxes elsewhere with good public schools, middle class people move. It happened in the 1960s and 70s, and it's on the verge of happening again. [/b][/quote]

    Bugg I agree with your viewpoints for the most part....

    The scary thing is that a person considering professional studies has to come to grips with the reality that there is a hell of a lot of competition out there. And if you're gonna commit over $100K towards "learned" studies, the possibility of ending up like that disgruntled MBA Grad (That I mentioned in the first post) is not out of the question.....

    Now, Big Al was right on when he mentioned that IB's were on a hiring spree over the past year. I currently have an indirect link to that field (I work for a high-yield research & data mining shop), and It's becoming quite clear that trend won't continue.....

    As a born in bred New Yorker, I have a real fear of what direction this city is headed (This isn't nessecarily Bloombergs' fault). There's a great deal of unemployed talent here, the cost of living (And inflation in general) is blowing away disposable income increases.

    And what pissess me off more than anything are these companies...CB Richard Ellis, Vornado Realty, Forest City Enterprises, Trump....etc..etc........There're whoring high-rise after 1/2 capacity high rise down our throat, and forcing the smaller landlord to raise rent prices based on the supposed "Area Based average market price". There have to be more 30 year olds with roomates in this city than anywhere else in the world. And outside of all that we still have a horrible homeless situation.

    I just wanted to vent guys. I'm sure the Non-New Yorkers probably can't understand my disappointment, but I just wanted to see how you all felt about it. As well get away from the politics for a second..

    TB

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    Bloomberg's fault is may be too pointed, but it's his viewpoint, which too many "movers and shakers" share. If you just getting started, you aren't dropping $2500 a month or $1 million on a Manhattan apartment. There's no real entry level for housing. You can't comtinually price talented young people out of housing and think long-term it won't hurt the City. Young educated people who want to work hard are how you get small startups once they get experience. And to chase or ignore them is stupidity. With broadband, why be here unless you want to get taxed to death, or give up driving up to your office?


    Look, IBM isn't going to sprout fully-formed in this expensive enviroment. Bill Gates started in a garage. Companies spring up from young people who get experience and start out on a shoestring and grow. Those companies aren't going to locate here, and the expense involved mitigates them starting here. Young companies and the people who work for them will go somewhere else. Bloomberg babbles on about Broadway plays, restaurants and cultural institutions, which when you're starting a business are nice, but not what matters at all.

  7. #7
    Tom The Nader Fan™
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by TerryBadway[/i]@Jul 24 2004, 10:43 PM
    [b] I just wanted to vent guys. I'm sure the Non-New Yorkers probably can't understand my disappointment, but I just wanted to see how you all felt about it. As well get away from the politics for a second..

    TB [/b][/quote]
    It is frustrating, Terry. I grew up in NJ, in a town that I can't afford to buy a house in. But I don't blame the government, or the system.

    I made alot of bad decisions in my life.

    I'm starting to compensate late in life, for all the squandered opportunities when I was younger. Sometimes things happen for the best, even though at the time we think we blew it.

    I got no problem leaving New Jersey. I think I'm gonna be real happy in Virginia. I know I keep saying I'm gonna leave, but I could never get my wife to agree. Well, thank god her friends moved to Virginia, and she gets all these glowing reports, and now she wants to go.

    We both know it aint gonna get much better for us if we stay in NJ. We could do better. Alot better, in another state. And so I'm just plugging away, banging out the credits, so I can get my BA and get a job with the Federal Reserve, or something. Anything to get a foothold in Virginia. And we're gone.

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    [quote][b]It is frustrating, Terry. I grew up in NJ, in a town that I can't afford to buy a house in. But I don't blame the government, or the system.

    I made alot of bad decisions in my life.

    I'm starting to compensate late in life, for all the squandered opportunities when I was younger. Sometimes things happen for the best, even though at the time we think we blew it.

    I got no problem leaving New Jersey. I think I'm gonna be real happy in Virginia. I know I keep saying I'm gonna leave, but I could never get my wife to agree. Well, thank god her friends moved to Virginia, and she gets all these glowing reports, and now she wants to go.

    We both know it aint gonna get much better for us if we stay in NJ. We could do better. Alot better, in another state. And so I'm just plugging away, banging out the credits, so I can get my BA and get a job with the Federal Reserve, or something. Anything to get a foothold in Virginia. And we're gone. [/b][/quote]

    We talked about this a little before brother(In the Jetmo days ;) ). I think our situations mirror each others somewhat. I'm 29 yo now, and just finishing my alternative transcript bachelors degree. When I was younger I was blessed with a good deal of talent and earned myself a baseball scholarship to a pretty solid University. Within 3 years I completely Blew-It by spending more time drinking/smoking/hooking-up instead of hitting the books. And that's why I've had to bust-my-azz the past 2 years working 50 hours a week and handling 17-18 credits per semester. Hopefully the grad school ad-coms will be touched by my story....

    You'll do well in VA my brother. You're witty, sharp, and have strong opinions that you easily articulate. I don't always agree with you, but you always have my ear (eyes). Good luck in that venture, and good luck on finishing up your studies....

  9. #9
    i will say this much

    it's definately a buyer's market for labor there can be absolutely NO denying that.

    Big Al NYC when you say "if this guy is legit" that really translates into "if this guy knows someone"

    there are many more qualified applicants then positions... especially if you are looking on the high end

    i agree that if you want a job right now you can have a job, however it is now more unlikely to be the job of your dreams than ever.

    _i don't blame the president_

    but the current unemployment figures don't tell the whole story. housing Costs, debt and working hours are rising while quality of life continues the fall - this is a "broad generality" statement there are always exceptions -

    im talking about man on the street walking up to HR deptartments dropping resumes - it's tough out there.

  10. #10
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    One of the main problems with todays world is that we all want the "dream job," which is very respectable. This especially holds true for kids coming out of college, even myself. Since I am currently paying a lot of money to go to school, I feel I should be entitled to the most amazing jobs around. The reality is there arent that many amazing jobs out there, yet there are so many people looking for them.

    I know kids who didnt go to college who are happier than college grads simply because the non-graduate can have any job and not feel burdended to get an amazing job, but one where he/she can pay the bills. Whereas the college grad feels pressure to get their moneys worth by getting a great job. The reality is, most of those great jobs we see on TV or in magazines dont really exist in the excess amount that society portrays them.

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by TerryBadway[/i]@Jul 25 2004, 12:33 AM
    [b] You'll do well in VA my brother. You're witty, sharp, and have strong opinions that you easily articulate. I don't always agree with you, but you always have my ear (eyes). Good luck in that venture, and good luck on finishing up your studies.... [/b][/quote]
    Thank you, Terry. That means alot to me. I wish you nothing but the best, too.

    [i]You got your passion you got your pride
    But don't you know only fools are satisfied?
    Dream on, but don't imagine they'll all come true
    When will you realize
    Vienna waits for you
    [/i] -Billy Joel

    [img]http://www.imericaonline.com/thinks/i_am/archives/love_ny_more.jpg[/img]
    She never loved me, back ;)

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    [quote][b]One of the main problems with todays world is that we all want the "dream job," which is very respectable. This especially holds true for kids coming out of college, even myself. Since I am currently paying a lot of money to go to school, I feel I should be entitled to the most amazing jobs around. The reality is there arent that many amazing jobs out there, yet there are so many people looking for them.

    I know kids who didnt go to college who are happier than college grads simply because the non-graduate can have any job and not feel burdended to get an amazing job, but one where he/she can pay the bills. Whereas the college grad feels pressure to get their moneys worth by getting a great job. The reality is, most of those great jobs we see on TV or in magazines dont really exist in the excess amount that society portrays them. [/b][/quote]

    Your points have a lot of merit Brody. The late 90's was an era where some college grads where getting BMW's for bonuses, and back office folks could make six figures at the right start-up. And freshly minted MBA were getting signing bonuses after year one of their studies. Those days are "OVER".

    However, since then education costs are going up 6% annually. SIX PERCENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE PAY HAS BEEN STAGNANT. You gotta understand that a guy coming out of a top 50 b-school or law school not only wants to find a dream job, they also need a job that will help repay that $100K commitment they made over the past 2 years.

    The typical professional student forgoes 2 years of income + tution costs + Living costs. Hopefully the conditions change over the next few years in NYC. If not, like Bugg hinted to earlier, there're hot markets elsewhere in the country. Salt Lake City, here I come :lol:

  13. #13
    all the hot tech jobs are in Calcutta - thank you Ronald reagan for abolishing anti-Trust laws ;)

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Jul 25 2004, 02:57 PM
    [b] all the hot tech jobs are in Calcutta - thank you Ronald reagan for abolishing anti-Trust laws ;) [/b][/quote]
    Because MBA are looking for tech jobs?

    And what does anti-trust have to do with outsourcing?

  15. #15
    Guys,

    As TerryBadway has eluded to before....I do have some perspective on this. I went to a decent law school and my bro went to a TOP 5 Business school. I started out in a ****ty 35K a year law job...it sucked but I learned and moved on...since then (1997) I have moved from job to job and currently make close to 6 figures...(Hard climb). My brother graduated NYU Business school and had a signing bonus and everything in 2000 when the market collapsed. The firm he was going to work for withdrew his offer and poof....he was stuck in the temp cycle...good news for my bro was that in 2003 he found a temp to perm job at a canadian interactive marketing company downtown and then just about a month ago left there to work for DELOITTE TOUCHE...making 6 figures....it was hell on him for about three years but then he had networked sufficiently to get a great job with a huge company.

    The economy for everyone has been crap but I think it is coming back on track. I dont think it will ever be like the pre-2000 economy of booming IP companies BUT in a way we need to learn that companies cannot be sold on "potential" alone...we need to see sales/productivity not just "when we start we will....."

    I am lucky and so is my bro...but now a days you'd better have a degree from a good school or some other defining feature. Now a days, everyone goes to college...so you have to seperate from the crowd. We are both bilingual and we have a very professional outlook and presentation..so I think we do well to fit in the corp. structure of any company.

    As I told Sea Captain McCallister, you should not go law school if you dont have connections. With an MBA, dont get one if

    1) You have no business connections
    2) Its a cheap MBA (from a non-top 20 school)
    3) You cant afford to temp for a 1-3 yr period.

    Its just not worth it.

    Lets all be real....

    LL

    Big UP's to my main man Terry Badway...Hey Jet Mo, good luck in Virginia...will you be rooting for the Expos?

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by Tom The Nader Fan™+Jul 24 2004, 11:04 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (Tom The Nader Fan™ @ Jul 24 2004, 11:04 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin--TerryBadway[/i]@Jul 24 2004, 10:43 PM
    [b] I just wanted to vent guys. I&#39;m sure the Non-New Yorkers probably can&#39;t understand my disappointment, but I just wanted to see how you all felt about it. As well get away from the politics for a second..

    TB [/b][/quote]
    It is frustrating, Terry. I grew up in NJ, in a town that I can&#39;t afford to buy a house in. But I don&#39;t blame the government, or the system.

    I made alot of bad decisions in my life.

    I&#39;m starting to compensate late in life, for all the squandered opportunities when I was younger. Sometimes things happen for the best, even though at the time we think we blew it.

    I got no problem leaving New Jersey. I think I&#39;m gonna be real happy in Virginia. I know I keep saying I&#39;m gonna leave, but I could never get my wife to agree. Well, thank god her friends moved to Virginia, and she gets all these glowing reports, and now she wants to go.

    We both know it aint gonna get much better for us if we stay in NJ. We could do better. Alot better, in another state. And so I&#39;m just plugging away, banging out the credits, so I can get my BA and get a job with the Federal Reserve, or something. Anything to get a foothold in Virginia. And we&#39;re gone. [/b][/quote]
    TTNF,

    You will love life in VA&#33;&#33;&#33; Be sure to take up Bass Fishing when you get there. They have some of the best fishing on the East Coast. I promise you will like it.

  17. #17
    Heres my 2 cents,

    When I graduated in &#39;98 the job market was booming. I had no experience on my resume yet recruiters were calling me like crazy. That kind of hot job market is very unusuall and only comes around once in a generation. In 2001 and 2002 the jobs market was terrible. I was looking to change directions with my career and the outlook was dismal. I probablly sent out hundreds of applications with allmost no callbacks. It was pretty depressing. The thing is that a terrible market was to be expected as the natural counter balance to the unsustainable jobs market of the late 90&#39;s. What goes up must come down. When the stock market bubble burst and to a smaller extent when 9/11 happened it killed the job markets.

    Now heres the good news. Over the past 6-8 months the jobs markets have been coming back steadily. This is the best that could be expected given the circumstances.

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