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Thread: The Early Poll Numbers Are In

  1. #1
    This is the Latest Poll Results from Rasmussen. It seems that Kerry didn't really pick up any ground at all. Maybe the American people aren't as stupid as the Democratic pundits thought. It seems like many people saw through Kerry's line of BS and realized that when you sift through all of his diharea (spell??) of the mouth the thing that was most aboundantly clear from the debates is that KErry will cut and run in Iraq.


    [url=http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm]http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidenti...acking_Poll.htm[/url]

    Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

    Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

    Presidential Ballot

    Bush 49.0%
    Kerry 45.4%
    Other 2.1%
    Not Sure 3.7%
    RasmussenReports.com



    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Sunday October 03, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%.

    These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday afternoon. As a result, just over two-thirds of the interviews were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate.

    Interviews conducted on Friday and Saturday show Kerry with a one-point bounce so far since the debate. However, in post-debate interviews, Bush still leads 49% to 46%.

    The debates did little to change voter perceptions of the candidates' political ideology. However, following the debate, there was an increase in the number who say finishing the mission in Iraq is more important than getting troops home as soon as possible.

    Six percent (6%)% of voters say they changed their minds following the debate. This includes 3% who are now voting for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided.

    A separate survey found Republican challenger John Thune with a narrow lead over Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota.




    The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the President ahead 213-169. Rasmussen Reports has recently released state election polls for Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Additional state election polls will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today. The Electoral College projection will be updated if appropriate.

    Rasmussen Reports Premium Members receive daily tracking updates for Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. They also receive weekly updates for 15 other states plus other supplemental information. A full year subscription is available for just $95.



    Fifty-four percent (54%) of Americans favor leaving U.S. soldiers in Iraq until that country's political situation is stabilized. Only 29% think we can win the War on Terror without first achieving a stable Iraq. A separate survey found that 52% of voters believe the War with Iraq is part of the broader War on Terror.

  2. #2
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    The gallup poll that you used on Friday about the debate seems to think otherwise with the race being tied...I guess grab for any poll that gives you the info you need at the time...

    [url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13240]http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13240[/url]

    GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

    PRINCETON, NJ -- The presidential election is roughly back where it was in August, with John Kerry and George W. Bush tied among likely voters, and with President Bush's job approval squarely at the midpoint of 50%. This marks a significant change from September, when three separate CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls showed Bush ahead of Kerry.

    Impact of First Debate

    There is little question that Thursday night's presidential debate has made a significant difference in the presidential race.

    Gallup's poll of debate watchers on Thursday night showed that Kerry was perceived as doing a better job than Bush by a 53% to 37% margin. In the latest poll, conducted Oct. 1-3, this perception of Kerry's stronger debate performance has expanded, no doubt fueled by post-debate media discussion and spin. Fifty-seven percent of the broad sample of all Americans now say Kerry did the better job in the debate, compared to only 25% who say Bush did the better job.

    Additionally, 71% of Americans say they watched or listened to the debate, while another 13% say they saw news coverage of the confrontation at the University of Miami.

    The Horse Race

    Prior to the debate, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters by an eight-point margin of 52% to 44%. Bush also had job approval ratings in the three September polls in the 52%-54% range.

    Now, in the new poll, Bush's post-Republican convention bounce has dissipated. The race is literally tied among likely voters, at 49% to 49%, and statistically tied among registered voters, with a slight 49%- 47% margin in Bush's favor. (Ralph Nader receives only 1% of the vote among both groups.)

  3. #3
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    Gallup andf Newseeks polls show a statisical dead-heat. Kerry clearly got some momentum.

    However, at this late stage, national polls are largely meaningless. It is the state-by-state polls that matter, and even those will likely fluctuate in the next few weeks.

    It is all about turnout on election day itself, it'll be another close one where anyone can win...like last time...

  4. #4
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by jets5ever[/i]@Oct 4 2004, 08:58 AM
    [b] Gallup andf Newseeks polls show a statisical dead-heat. Kerry clearly got some momentum.

    However, at this late stage, national polls are largely meaningless. It is the state-by-state polls that matter, and even those will likely fluctuate in the next few weeks.

    It is all about turnout on election day itself, it'll be another close one where anyone can win...like last time... [/b][/quote]
    I agree with this. There are so many polls that say different things. I try not to pay attention to polls, although its impossible because every newscast loves stats and polls. In this case, I was just asking chiefs to be consistent with the polls he is posting.

  5. #5
    [quote][i]Originally posted by 4th&Long[/i]@Oct 4 2004, 08:50 AM
    [b] The gallup poll that you used on Friday about the debate seems to think otherwise with the race being tied...I guess grab for any poll that gives you the info you need at the time...

    [url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13240]http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13240[/url]

    GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

    PRINCETON, NJ -- The presidential election is roughly back where it was in August, with John Kerry and George W. Bush tied among likely voters, and with President Bush's job approval squarely at the midpoint of 50%. This marks a significant change from September, when three separate CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls showed Bush ahead of Kerry.

    Impact of First Debate

    There is little question that Thursday night's presidential debate has made a significant difference in the presidential race.

    Gallup's poll of debate watchers on Thursday night showed that Kerry was perceived as doing a better job than Bush by a 53% to 37% margin. In the latest poll, conducted Oct. 1-3, this perception of Kerry's stronger debate performance has expanded, no doubt fueled by post-debate media discussion and spin. Fifty-seven percent of the broad sample of all Americans now say Kerry did the better job in the debate, compared to only 25% who say Bush did the better job.

    Additionally, 71% of Americans say they watched or listened to the debate, while another 13% say they saw news coverage of the confrontation at the University of Miami.

    The Horse Race

    Prior to the debate, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters by an eight-point margin of 52% to 44%. Bush also had job approval ratings in the three September polls in the 52%-54% range.

    Now, in the new poll, Bush's post-Republican convention bounce has dissipated. The race is literally tied among likely voters, at 49% to 49%, and statistically tied among registered voters, with a slight 49%- 47% margin in Bush's favor. (Ralph Nader receives only 1% of the vote among both groups.) [/b][/quote]
    Yikes, I didn't see the Gallup Poll this Morning. The good news is that expectations are down for Bush in the next two debates. Hopefully his performance will improve some. He needs to hammer home the fact that Kerry will cut and run in Iraq.

  6. #6
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    I think Bush just needs to hold his own in the Town Hall debate. No one is expecting much. Although, if Kerry's "unclear" message becomes more evident to people, Kerry could pull ahead. Should be interesting, but the only poll that counts is Nov. 2

  7. #7
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    More importantly, Missouri, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio are all still trending to Bush. If that holds, Kerry has to pull off a miracle to win the Electoral College. Which makes all this polling beside the point. Still, there's a month to go.

    One prediction-Cheney, for all his unfair "bogeyman" reputation, will make Edwards look like a callow child. But I doubt it will make much difference either way.

  8. #8
    Polls: Kerry won debate
    Bush post-convention lead 'erased'
    Sunday, October 3, 2004 Posted: 9:30 AM EDT (1330 GMT)



    President Bush and Sen. John Kerry faced off Thursday in the first of three presidential debates.


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    (CNN) -- A majority of Americans believe Sen. John Kerry won the first presidential debate of the 2004 campaign, putting him in a virtual tie with President Bush, according to polls released Saturday by Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times.

    Newsweek reported that Thursday's debate in Miami, Florida, had "erased the lead" that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have held over Kerry and running mate Sen. John Edwards since the Republican National Convention in New York.

    Newsweek's post-convention poll had Bush leading among registered voters 54 percent to 43 percent. Its post-debate poll had 47 percent choosing Kerry-Edwards, and 45 percent for Bush-Cheney. Two percent said they would vote for Ralph Nader and his running mate, Peter Camejo.

    The Newsweek survey polled more than 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

    Newsweek's post-debate poll showed 61 percent of respondents said Kerry won, 19 percent said Bush won and 16 percent said they were undecided.

    The poll also found 56 percent said Kerry did better than expected in the debate while 11 percent said the same for Bush.

    In the Los Angeles Times poll, 54 percent of 725 respondents surveyed declared Kerry the winner of the debate, compared with 15 percent who said Bush won.

    Before the debate, a Los Angeles Times poll showed Kerry with a one percentage point lead over Bush, and after the debate Kerry's lead increased to two points. Those margins are well within the poll's margin of error -- plus or minus four percentage points.

    The debate was the first of three match-ups between Kerry and Bush.

    Vice President Dick Cheney and his Democratic challenger, John Edwards, will debate in Cleveland, Ohio, on Tuesday. (Full story)

    On Friday, the second presidential debate will take place in St. Louis, Missouri, followed by the final debate on October 13 in Tempe, Arizona.

  9. #9
    Seems to me like Senator Kerry may just be starting to peak @ the right time. I wouldn't be too surprised if by November 2nd he wins pulling away.

  10. #10
    If Kerry wins it will renew my faith in the American People.

  11. #11
    frankly i think PA is the most important swing state, and people here are energized for Kerry.

    i know Philly is different from Altoona but remember Ed Rendell was the mayor of Philly and now he's the democratic governor of PA.

    If Kerry can take the 21 EV's here it would be KEY. Philly voter turnout will be very sizable, based on the voter registration efforts and absentee ballots handed out for MONTHS

  12. #12
    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Oct 4 2004, 01:28 PM
    [b] frankly i think PA is the most important swing state, and people here are energized for Kerry.

    i know Philly is different from Altoona but remember Ed Rendell was the mayor of Philly and now he's the democratic governor of PA.

    If Kerry can take the 21 EV's here it would be KEY. Philly voter turnout will be very sizable, based on the voter registration efforts and absentee ballots handed out for MONTHS [/b][/quote]
    Polls have PA as a statistical dead heat. It will be a key state. So will Ohio. Flofida seems to be leaning toward Bush so he will need either PA or Ohio to win. If Kerry takes any two of those three states he should win.

  13. #13
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Oct 4 2004, 01:28 PM
    [b]
    but remember Ed Rendell was the mayor of Philly and now he's the democratic governor of PA.

    [/b][/quote]
    Ahh yes, our fearless leader who'd rather appear weekly on the Eagles post-game show than run our state in any meaningful way. :D

    Here's to you Eddy, for almost letting the state school system go on strike that would've let a semester of mine go straight down the toilet, tuition check and all. Seriously though, he DID step in at the 11th hour and bring that whole mess to an end so I guess the dude's alright and I should give him props. But democrat or not, no Eagles fan should even be put in charge of taking care of their own kids, let alone a state.

  14. #14
    [quote][i]Originally posted by jets5ever[/i]@Oct 4 2004, 08:58 AM
    [b] Gallup andf Newseeks polls show a statisical dead-heat. Kerry clearly got some momentum.

    However, at this late stage, national polls are largely meaningless. It is the state-by-state polls that matter, and even those will likely fluctuate in the next few weeks.

    It is all about turnout on election day itself, it'll be another close one where anyone can win...like last time... [/b][/quote]
    Thank you! You are 100% correct.

    I didn't see Kerry gaining much in the battleground states.

    However, something tells me that many more Democrats than are expected will vote and vote for Kerry come election day.


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