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Thread: Analysis of the Latest Polls

  1. #1
    I've gotten to the point where I'm watching the polls like a sports competition. Real Clear Politics [url]www.realclearpolitics.com[/url] is probably the best site I've found for comprehensive details and analysis of all the current polls. Here are some of the recent National Poll results. At the moment when you take the average of the past few major polls Bush leads By 2.9%
    Rasmussen (3,000 LV)
    10/17 - 10/19
    BUSH 48% KERRY 47% Bush +1
    TIPP (796 LV)
    10/16 - 10/19
    BUSH 45% KERRY 45% TIE
    FOX News (1000 LV)
    10/17 - 10/18
    BUSH 48%KERRY 43% Bush +5
    CBS News (678 LV)
    10/14 - 10/17
    BUSH 47% KERRY 46% Bush +1
    CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)
    10/14 - 10/16
    BUSH 52% KERRY 44% Bush +8
    Time (865 LV w/leaners)
    10/14 - 10/15
    BUSH 48% KERRY 48% TIE
    Newsweek (LV)
    10/14 - 10/15
    BUSH 50% KERRY 45% Bush +5

    The national numbers look pretty good for Bush, but as we all know this election will come down to battleground states. Things are not as solid on that front.
    [img]http://www.jperspective.com/electoralmap.jpg[/img]

    Electoral Count: Bush 227 - Kerry 210* Toss Up 101

    At first glance the above electoral map appears to be almost completely red. Even with a huge advantage for Bush in terms of the number of states in the red column the total number of solid electoral votes for either candidate is very tight.

    Throughout the past year we've been hearing that the winner of the election will probably be the candidate that can win 2 of the 3 big toss up states. Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    At the moment based on recent polling Bush appears to have a slight lead in Florida and Kerry appears to have a slight lead in Pennsylvania. Ohio appears to be a toss up.

    If Bush were to win in Florida but lose in Ohio and Pennsylvania there are still some scenarios in which he could still win the election. In order to win the election a candidate needs to receive 271 electoral votes.

    Assuming no major surprises between now and election day, and assuming Bush wins Florida but loses Ohio and Pennsylvania. Based on the above map Bush would have 227 EV's + Florida's 27 EV's to total 254. He would then need to make up additional 17 EV's between to win the election. No single toss up state could deliver those 17 votes. Iowa (7) Minnesota(10) New Mexico (5) and Wisconsin (10) would be the remaining toss up states. Bush would need to win 2 out of 3 in Iowa(7), Minnesota(10) and Wisconsin(10). In this scenario New Mexico doesn't help.

    In another scenario which has Bush losing Florida but winning in Ohio, Bush would then need to win 3 out of 4 of the remaining toss up states.

    To conclude, it seems like November 2, should be an exciting day. I expect that the election will be very close. I think that in the end turnout will decide things in the critical toss up states. The Democrats have been very busy registering new voters. The Republicans have been doing the same. The question is which of these new groups of voters will actually turn out.

  2. #2
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    These polls mean very little if Bush can't win Florida and Ohio. Kerry probably takes PA. The math doesn't work any other way for Bush unless several "blue state's" current status isn't accurately reflected in the polls.

  3. #3
    i don't know about Ohio and FLA but i can tell you voters in philly are motivated, way more then they were to elect Ed Rendell... we are talking 85% Kerry 10% bush in the city... it also wouldn't surprise me if certain polling spots secretly stuffed the ballot, that's how badly people hate George Bush around here. No way Bush wins PA.

  4. #4
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by Bugg[/i]@Oct 20 2004, 05:54 PM
    [b] These polls mean very little if Bush can't win Florida and Ohio. Kerry probably takes PA. The math doesn't work any other way for Bush unless several "blue state's" current status isn't accurately reflected in the polls. [/b][/quote]
    Florida, Wisconsin (Gallup now has GWB up by 6% LV in that state: [url=http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-10-20-wisconsin-poll.htm)]http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselect...onsin-poll.htm)[/url] and Iowa put the President over 270 EV.

  5. #5
    For what it's worth, a guy on another forum says he's picked the winner every time since 1972 using his formula. He picked Clinton both times and Carter even though he didn't vote for "those cretins." Based on his formula, Bush will win.

  6. #6
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    check out [url]www.electoral-vote.com[/url]

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by HBJETFANBOB[/i]@Oct 21 2004, 10:23 AM
    [b] check out [url]www.electoral-vote.com[/url] [/b][/quote]
    [url]www.electoral-vote.com[/url] (left leaning) utilizes an average of past pollings. Therefore it is slow to reflect current trends and feelings.

    Also, by there own admission, they were not satisfied with the results of their methodology so they completely changed it to produce the results they are hoping for.

    Keep watching it though... over the next week, it will turn red again.

  8. #8
    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Oct 20 2004, 06:11 PM
    [b] wouldn't surprise me if certain polling spots secretly stuffed the ballot, that's how badly people hate George Bush around here. No way Bush wins PA. [/b][/quote]
    You are right. In Philly, the voter turnout is probably over 100%. A lot of fraud in Philly. It's a damn shame this Stalinist crap goes on in our cities. Me and my wife will both pull the lever for Bush though. I'll put our two legal votes against the dems stuffed ballot boxes any day!

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    [quote][i]Originally posted by HBJETFANBOB[/i]@Oct 21 2004, 10:23 AM
    [b] check out [url]www.electoral-vote.com[/url]

    What did I tell ya.... [/b][/quote]
    Uh Oh... dont look now...


    [url=http://www.electoral-vote.com/]http://www.electoral-vote.com/[/url]

  10. #10
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    Apparently there has been a virtual tsunami of new voter registrations involving young people and poorer people, led by the DNC. These polls are conducted largely using land-based phone lines. Many, many young people who are now registered to vote don't have land lines and rely solely on cell phones. These people may not be captured in these polling results. It bears watching...these polls could have higher error margins that we think, and thus, Kerry's chances may be even betetr than they indicate, and his chances seem OK even without that potential benefit....who knows? Turnout is the thing.


    I predict another close election, followed by bitter court battles, rampant and unsubstantiated allegations of voter intimidation from both sides, predominantly by the democrats, multiple re-count requests, etc. I don't think it will be "finished" on November 2nd, sadly....

  11. #11
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    So, my Conservative Friends, if Kerry wins the election by a small margin, with a single swing state being the difference, will we see Republican lawsuits and recount requests and Supreme Court Cases, or will the Republicans "Get Over It" as so many of you wished the Democrats would have in 2000?

    :lol: :blink: :lol:

  12. #12
    [quote][i]Originally posted by Warfish[/i]@Oct 22 2004, 11:17 AM
    [b] So, my Conservative Friends, if Kerry wins the election by a small margin, with a single swing state being the difference, will we see Republican lawsuits and recount requests and Supreme Court Cases? [/b][/quote]
    You can count on it.

  13. #13
    [quote][i]Originally posted by Warfish[/i]@Oct 22 2004, 11:17 AM
    [b] So, my Conservative Friends, if Kerry wins the election by a small margin, with a single swing state being the difference, will we see Republican lawsuits and recount requests and Supreme Court Cases, or will the Republicans "Get Over It" as so many of you wished the Democrats would have in 2000?

    :lol: :blink: :lol: [/b][/quote]
    Where we might have trouble in it the circumstance where maybe an elector decides not to give his vote to Bush or some wacky thing like that.

  14. #14
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by Warfish[/i]@Oct 22 2004, 11:17 AM
    [b] So, my Conservative Friends, if Kerry wins the election by a small margin, with a single swing state being the difference, will we see Republican lawsuits and recount requests and Supreme Court Cases, or will the Republicans "Get Over It" as so many of you wished the Democrats would have in 2000?

    :lol: :blink: :lol: [/b][/quote]
    I think "get over it" is an oversimplification. I can see that people would be disappointed, since it was such a close election and they despise George Bush. I will be disappointed if Kerry wins. However, I think the "get over it" line has more to do with the utterly false whines about Bush "stealing" the election. Only a fool believes that, or an ignoramus. I can understand people being pissed that Bush won, but the notion that he stole the election or that 60,000 black people in Florida were "disenfranchised" or whatever is absurd. It was a close, bitterly fought, and tense election and Bush won fair and sqaure. People need to at least admit that, yet many Democrats cling to absurd conspiracy theories. "Get over it" is in response to that nonsense...and doens't mean they have no right to be disappointed since their guy lost...anyone whose candidate loses is going to be bummed.

  15. #15
    An important thing to remember is that it was Bush and not Gore who was the petitioner in 2000. He was the one who sought relief from the courts.

  16. #16
    [quote][i]Originally posted by valleyjet[/i]@Oct 22 2004, 11:43 AM
    [b] An important thing to remember is that it was Bush and not Gore who was the petitioner in 2000. He was the one who sought relief from the courts. [/b][/quote]
    What color Kool Aid were you drinking when you came up with this one?

  17. #17
    [quote][i]Originally posted by chiefst2000+Oct 22 2004, 11:46 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (chiefst2000 @ Oct 22 2004, 11:46 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-valleyjet[/i]@Oct 22 2004, 11:43 AM
    [b] An important thing to remember is that it was Bush and not Gore who was the petitioner in 2000. He was the one who sought relief from the courts. [/b][/quote]
    What color Kool Aid were you drinking when you came up with this one? [/b][/quote]
    Look up the record for yourself dude.

    Once again we can count on you to illustrate that ignorance is a dangerous thing. <_<

  18. #18
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by jets5ever+Oct 22 2004, 11:38 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (jets5ever @ Oct 22 2004, 11:38 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Warfish[/i]@Oct 22 2004, 11:17 AM
    [b] So, my Conservative Friends, if Kerry wins the election by a small margin, with a single swing state being the difference, will we see Republican lawsuits and recount requests and Supreme Court Cases, or will the Republicans "Get Over It" as so many of you wished the Democrats would have in 2000?

    :lol: :blink: :lol: [/b][/quote]
    I think "get over it" is an oversimplification. I can see that people would be disappointed, since it was such a close election and they despise George Bush. I will be disappointed if Kerry wins. However, I think the "get over it" line has more to do with the utterly false whines about Bush "stealing" the election. Only a fool believes that, or an ignoramus. I can understand people being pissed that Bush won, but the notion that he stole the election or that 60,000 black people in Florida were "disenfranchised" or whatever is absurd. It was a close, bitterly fought, and tense election and Bush won fair and sqaure. People need to at least admit that, yet many Democrats cling to absurd conspiracy theories. "Get over it" is in response to that nonsense...and doens&#39;t mean they have no right to be disappointed since their guy lost...anyone whose candidate loses is going to be bummed. [/b][/quote]
    That is exactly what I am talking about: Will there be claims from the Republicans/Bush Campiagn that Kerry "Stole" the election, that the Dems perpetrated "Voter fraud" or "disenfranchisement" or any f the other terms the Dems threw around in 2000?

    If the election is as close as 2000, but goes the dems way, will the Republicans do the same things the Dems did in 2000, or no? And as a side question, will Republican posters "let it go" as they have consistently asked the Dem posters here to do?

  19. #19
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by valleyjet+Oct 22 2004, 11:49 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (valleyjet @ Oct 22 2004, 11:49 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> [quote]Originally posted by chiefst2000@Oct 22 2004, 11:46 AM
    [b] <!--QuoteBegin-valleyjet[/i]@Oct 22 2004, 11:43 AM
    [b] An important thing to remember is that it was Bush and not Gore who was the petitioner in 2000. He was the one who sought relief from the courts. [/b][/quote]
    What color Kool Aid were you drinking when you came up with this one? [/b][/quote]
    Look up the record for yourself dude.

    Once again we can count on you to illustrate that ignorance is a dangerous thing. <_< [/b][/quote]
    Uh Chiefs, he is right. :lol:

    BOTH parties took their claims to court in 2000. Bush sued to stop the recounts and Gore sued to have the recounts. BOTH parties used and manipulated the legal system to defend their position on the contested results.

  20. #20
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    [quote][i]Originally posted by valleyjet[/i]@Oct 22 2004, 11:43 AM
    [b] An important thing to remember is that it was Bush and not Gore who was the petitioner in 2000. He was the one who sought relief from the courts. [/b][/quote]
    Valleygators,

    You are absolutely correct. Gore requested a recount that was illegal and unconstitutional. The Florida Supreme Court outrageously allowed it to proceed. Bush merely wanted the election to be certified legally. The US Supreme Court struck down the illegal ruling of the Florida Supreme Court, and reverted the election results to the ones legally certified earlier, the way it has always been done. Gore, not Bush, wanted to change the way election results are certified and the way recounts are done. He cherry-picked the counties, and never requested a full, state-wide recount, for some reason. Justice Breyer, who wrote the dissenting opinin in Bush v Gore, admitted openly that what the Florida Supreme Court did was illegal and unconstitional. Look it up. He said that he felt that the recount requested by Gore should be allowed to proceed anyway, due to the "highly-charged political atmosphere" involved. So, law, schmaw, this recount helps my guy, so I want it to proceed.

    Had Gore succeed in his recount efforts, he likely would have lost anyway. Had he won, using an illegal and unconstitutional method, he truly would have been the "Court-Appointed" President. Gore undermined our democratic process, and so did the Florida Supreme Court, and Breyer desparately tried to. It&#39;s LAUGHABLE to me that Democrats can still make claims about Bush "stealing" an election he won by the rules and an election that Gore tried to steal. You should read the dissenting opinion in the Florida Supreme Court case...it&#39;s the most blistering dissent I have ever read, and the points in it are irrefutable, if one is mature enough to use logic.

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