Results 1 to 15 of 15

Thread: For my fellow poll junkies

  1. #1
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    6,648
    Post Thanks / Like
    [b]A mathmatic look at the possible election results. Author unknown... [/b]

    There is an insane amount of blathering at this point as to the chances of Bush or Kerry of winning the electon. What is needed is a rational look at this race based on simple mathematics that shows why Bush has overwhelming odds in his favor to win.


    Currently, the election is being taken as 2000 redux, with Kerry playing the role of Gore. 2000 of course ended with a 271-267 decision for Bush in the electoral college, with who'd have thunk it ending with six states coming down to essntially a flip of the coin - Florida and New Hampshire for Bush and Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, and New Mexico for Gore.


    Since 2000, the decennial census has redistributed electoral votes so that those results today are now equivalent to 278-260 for Bush.


    That same reapportionment of votes makes Bush's tossup states worth 31 electoral votes, while Gore's are worth 29 votes.


    During this campaign, a number of states have been claimed as battleground states besides the above six. But really it all comes down to five additional states where at least two polls have shown both candidates ahead. Thus excluded are one shot wonders like Colorado, Maine and New Jersey. From Bush's colum, Ohio with 20 electoral votes, and from Gore's column, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Hawaii.


    Taken together, these eleven battleground states represent 132 electoral votes. Unfortunately for Mr. Kerry, they leave him certain of only 179 electoral votes, while Bush can count on 227 solid electoral votes. So out battlegrounds look like:


    Candidate Bush Kerry Tossup
    2000 Results 278 260

    Florida 27 27
    Pennsylvania 21 21
    Ohio 20 20
    Michigan 17 17
    Minnesota 10 10
    Wisconsin 10 10
    Oregon 7 7
    Iowa 7 7
    New Mexico 5 5
    New Hampshire 4 4
    Hawaii 4 4

    Remainder 227 179 132

    Need to Win 43 91



    Note that President Bush needs just 43 additional electoral votes to win, while Senator Kerry needs 91, because more of the Gore states are up for grabs in this election.


    The laws of mathematics dictate that 11 items can be selected in 2048 different combinations for two different outcomes (here a Bush or a Kerry victory) where the number of items selected for either outcome canbe any number between 0 and 11. This can be shown thusly:


    States Won Total Combinations
    0 1
    1 11
    2 55
    3 165
    4 330
    5 462
    6 462
    7 330
    8 165
    9 55
    10 11
    11 1
    Total 2048



    It can be shown that because Bush needs just 43 votes to win, he needs to win as few as 2 of the battleground states to take the election. Furthermore, every combination of states where Bush wins 7 of the 11 battleground states results in a Bush victory.


    On the other hand, because Kerry needs 91 votes to win, he needs a minimum of 5 battleground states to win. Only when Kerry wins a minimum of 10 of the 11 battleground states does every possible combination ensure a Kerry victory.


    Assuming for the moment that each of these 11 battleground states is equally likely to go for either candidate the chances of each man winning can be shown this way for Bush:


    States Total Winning Bush Chance of
    Bush Wins Combinations Combinations Winning
    0 1 0 0%
    1 11 0 0%
    2 55 3 5%
    3 165 46 28%
    4 330 203 62%
    5 462 422 91%
    6 462 457 99%
    7 330 330 100%
    8 165 165 100%
    9 55 55 100%
    10 11 11 100%
    11 1 1 100%
    Total 2048 1693 83%



    And it looks this way for Kerry:


    States Total Winning Kerry Chance of
    Kerry Wins Combinations Combinations Winning
    0 1 0 0%
    1 11 0 0%
    2 55 0 0%
    3 165 0 0%
    4 330 0 0%
    5 462 5 1%
    6 462 40 9%
    7 330 127 38%
    8 165 119 72%
    9 55 52 95%
    10 11 11 100%
    11 1 1 100%
    Total 2048 355 17%



    Some comments on these tables are necessary for explanation.


    Kerry's minimum opportunity for victory is to win all four of FL, PA, OH, and MI, and to one any one of MN, WI, OR, and IA - five states. More realisitically, it is readily obvious that Kerry only has a solid chance of winning when he hits the plateau of winning 8 of the eleven battleground states listed - the feat accomplished by Al Gore in 2000 - and remember he still lost, because he he won the wrong big states - he took Pennsylvania and lost Florida! With 8 battlegrounds, Kerry must win at least 3 of the big 4, FL, PA, OH, and MI, and 5 of the small 7. If FL is not one of the big 4 won (i.e. Kerry wins PA, OH, and MI), then Kerry must also win three of MN, WI, IA and OR, along with NM, HA, and NH - a difficult feat, and one that only gets Kerry 270-273 electoral votes.


    Kerry's certain opportunity for winning only occurs with winning either 10 or 11 of the battleground states. The chances of this occuring if all states are considered equal is just 1%.


    Bush, on the other hand, has a minimum opportunity of victory by winning as few as 2 of the 11 battleground states - FL and one of either PA, OH, or MI. More realistically, Bush must win 3 battlegrounds to win, including at least Florida and any two other big or medium battlegrounds, or 4 battleground states to win - at least one of the big four, FL or PA or OH or MI, and any three of the smaller states. Provided that the big state won is not Michigan, and Bush wins either Minnesota or Wisconsin, plus any two other battleground states, he is certain of victory (with MI, he must win both MN and WI and either IA or OR).


    Bush's certain opportunity for winning occurs with winning at least any 7 of the 11 battleground states, which occurs in 27% of the total possible combinations. Bush is also morally certain of winning with any six of the 11 battleground states provided that it is not one of the five possible combinations where Bush wins all 4 of MN, WI, IA, and OR, and NH and HA, or any of the four combinations of ant 3 of MN, WI, IA, and OR, and all 3 of NM, NH, and HA. Including this moral certainty that these unlikely small state combinations will not occur, the chances that Bush will win 6 of the 11 battleground states is 50%.


    At the bottom line, Bush holds 83% of the possible combinations to victory, while Kerry holds just 17%, most of them extremely unlikely to occur.


    Moreover, given the way the polls appear to be leaning (Bush up in FL, MN, WI, IA, and NM), Bush is certain of victory even if he loses every other state, or even if he loses 1 or 2 of the other states listed above besides Florida.


    Last thoughts:
    1) The Kerry camp appears for a couple of weeks to have slowly been giving up on Iowa and Florida (especially Iowa, which they are constantly downplaying as being important). Not winning Iowa and Florida means Kerry must run the board on his remaining battlegrounds and drastically reduces his chances of being elected by collapsing the possible combinations of states for him to win.
    2) Lurking around the corner for Kerry are other unsecured states which simply further complicate his chances of winning. Biggest prize among these is New Jersey. But another potential nightmare for him is Maine with its multiplicity of opportunities for Bush - winning just the 2nd Congressional District, or the state and the 2nd CD, or the State and both Districts. Each little crack in the edifice of states won by Gore means more problems for Kerry and more opportunities for Bush to make it an early night.
    3) This anaylsis ignores Bush's opportunity to win with a tie in the House. Nevertheless, any tie would go to Bush, and the complicating factors of NJ, ME, and ME CD2 make for more opportunities for that to happen.


    All things being equal, though, barring a poll changing shocker later this week, Bush is going to win, and you can take that to the bank.

  2. #2
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    38,782
    Post Thanks / Like
    what does this thread say in 1 sentence or less:

    whoever wins Florida wins the election... again.

  3. #3
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    6,648
    Post Thanks / Like
    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Oct 28 2004, 03:26 PM
    [b] what does this thread say in 1 sentence or less:

    whoever wins Florida wins the election... again. [/b][/quote]
    Think of it like the draft. We know how much you love to analyze that. Theres alot of different scenarios

  4. #4
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    38,782
    Post Thanks / Like
    chiefs you should be nicer to me im the only one who reads your posts :P


    hence the election comes down to FLA again... Iowa is important but likely Bush... Mich is definately Kerry... NH goes to Kerry at the last minute JMO

    Missouri and Col are mysteries right now, could be Bush states.

    honestly i agree with the analysis but im taking it one step further by taking 2 out of the big 3 out of the equation right now

    Bush will LOSE PA
    Bush will WIN OHIO

    that's my gut instinct... my most trusted draft analysis tool

  5. #5
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    6,648
    Post Thanks / Like
    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Oct 28 2004, 07:57 PM
    [b] chiefs you should be nicer to me im the only one who reads your posts :P


    hence the election comes down to FLA again... Iowa is important but likely Bush... Mich is definately Kerry... NH goes to Kerry at the last minute JMO

    Missouri and Col are mysteries right now, could be Bush states.

    honestly i agree with the analysis but im taking it one step further by taking 2 out of the big 3 out of the equation right now

    Bush will LOSE PA
    Bush will WIN OHIO

    that's my gut instinct... my most trusted draft analysis tool [/b][/quote]
    I'm actually morew worried about Ohio then I am about Florida. I think Bush will take Florida. The economy there is on fire. I think Kerry might take Ohio. Thats where all these other scenario's would have to play out.

  6. #6
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    6,162
    Post Thanks / Like
    [quote][i]Originally posted by chiefst2000+Oct 29 2004, 08:36 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (chiefst2000 @ Oct 29 2004, 08:36 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-bitonti[/i]@Oct 28 2004, 07:57 PM
    [b] chiefs you should be nicer to me im the only one who reads your posts :P


    hence the election comes down to FLA again... Iowa is important but likely Bush... Mich is definately Kerry... NH goes to Kerry at the last minute JMO

    Missouri and Col are mysteries right now, could be Bush states.

    honestly i agree with the analysis but im taking it one step further by taking 2 out of the big 3 out of the equation right now

    Bush will LOSE PA
    Bush will WIN OHIO

    that&#39;s my gut instinct... my most trusted draft analysis tool [/b][/quote]
    I&#39;m actually morew worried about Ohio then I am about Florida. I think Bush will take Florida. The economy there is on fire. I think Kerry might take Ohio. Thats where all these other scenario&#39;s would have to play out. [/b][/quote]
    I recently heard Bush has a shot in NJ. Any truth to this? I can&#39;t help but think swing Jersey voters will be influenced by proximity to the get-out-the-fraud efforts in Philly. Must mean votes for Bush.

    Let&#39;s not forget that the LA Times had Bustamante beating Schwarzenegger until the day before the runoff. A highly visible and closely watched race - Bush was a little afraid of even stumping for Arnold, because it would have looked bad if Arnold lost. Then we saw an out and out landslide.

    My instinct - Bush takes FLA. Kerry takes PA. Ohio is anyone&#39;s game. Bush may score some less watched states, like MI, MN, or WI, NH. That may be what gets him there. If Kerry takes PA & OH: look out.

  7. #7
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    6,648
    Post Thanks / Like
    [quote][i]Originally posted by sackdance+Oct 29 2004, 09:39 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (sackdance @ Oct 29 2004, 09:39 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> [quote]Originally posted by chiefst2000@Oct 29 2004, 08:36 AM
    [b] <!--QuoteBegin-bitonti[/i]@Oct 28 2004, 07:57 PM
    [b] chiefs you should be nicer to me im the only one who reads your posts :P


    hence the election comes down to FLA again... Iowa is important but likely Bush... Mich is definately Kerry... NH goes to Kerry at the last minute JMO

    Missouri and Col are mysteries right now, could be Bush states.

    honestly i agree with the analysis but im taking it one step further by taking 2 out of the big 3 out of the equation right now

    Bush will LOSE PA
    Bush will WIN OHIO

    that&#39;s my gut instinct... my most trusted draft analysis tool [/b][/quote]
    I&#39;m actually morew worried about Ohio then I am about Florida. I think Bush will take Florida. The economy there is on fire. I think Kerry might take Ohio. Thats where all these other scenario&#39;s would have to play out. [/b][/quote]
    I recently heard Bush has a shot in NJ. Any truth to this? I can&#39;t help but think swing Jersey voters will be influenced by proximity to the get-out-the-fraud efforts in Philly. Must mean votes for Bush.

    Let&#39;s not forget that the LA Times had Bustamante beating Schwarzenegger until the day before the runoff. A highly visible and closely watched race - Bush was a little afraid of even stumping for Arnold, because it would have looked bad if Arnold lost. Then we saw an out and out landslide.

    My instinct - Bush takes FLA. Kerry takes PA. Ohio is anyone&#39;s game. Bush may score some less watched states, like MI, MN, or WI, NH. That may be what gets him there. If Kerry takes PA & OH: look out. [/b][/quote]
    The last 2 polls done in NJ showed the race here is a dead heat. I actually looked at the internals of this [url=http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=487]quinipiac[/url] Poll in NJ and the internals still seem to favor Kerry. I doubt Bush can pull out a win here but there is a chance.

  8. #8
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    I live here.
    Posts
    135
    Post Thanks / Like
    I can&#39;t imagine New York not being a swing state. There&#39;s a large contingent (at least in the county I&#39;m in) of Bush voters, but I&#39;m also seeing a lot of pro-Bush sentiment in Albany County. Naturally, the further south you go, the more Kerry supporters you&#39;ll see. But I could be wrong. What do the rest of you all think?

  9. #9
    Board Moderator
    Jets Insider VIP
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Location
    State Location Here
    Posts
    8,007
    Post Thanks / Like
    [quote][i]Originally posted by JetFan-68[/i]@Oct 29 2004, 10:19 AM
    [b] I can&#39;t imagine New York not being a swing state. There&#39;s a large contingent (at least in the county I&#39;m in) of Bush voters, but I&#39;m also seeing a lot of pro-Bush sentiment in Albany County. Naturally, the further south you go, the more Kerry supporters you&#39;ll see. But I could be wrong. What do the rest of you all think? [/b][/quote]
    I sold "Firefighters for Bush" t-shirts on Long Island and in Manhattan, and couldn&#39;t keep them in stock. Simply by wearing one to events (drills, parades, competitions, etc.) I&#39;d be literally inundated with people wanting to buy one. Sold over 500 in two months without trying. I still think we&#39;re hugely outnumbered by liberals, but if New Jersey can be considered in play (which is amazing in itself -- and troubling for Kerry), who the hell knows.

  10. #10
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    38,782
    Post Thanks / Like
    there are just too many poor urbanites and minorities in New York, New Jersey and PA for Bush to win those states - i can see him getting states like NH and iowa but nothing huge in the northeast...

    what these polls fail to take into account is likely record voter turnout - that helps the challenger every time.

  11. #11
    Hall Of Fame
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Location
    L.I. NY (where the Jets used to be from)
    Posts
    13,338
    Post Thanks / Like
    [quote][i]Originally posted by shakin318[/i]@Oct 29 2004, 11:24 AM
    [b] I sold "Firefighters for Bush" t-shirts on Long Island and in Manhattan, and couldn&#39;t keep them in stock. Simply by wearing one to events (drills, parades, competitions, etc.) I&#39;d be literally inundated with people wanting to buy one. Sold over 500 in two months without trying. I still think we&#39;re hugely outnumbered by liberals, but if New Jersey can be considered in play (which is amazing in itself -- and troubling for Kerry), who the hell knows. [/b][/quote]
    Hey, my neighbor has one of those bumper stickers, but I didn&#39;t see the shirts.

  12. #12
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    6,648
    Post Thanks / Like
    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti[/i]@Oct 29 2004, 10:55 AM
    [b] there are just too many poor urbanites and minorities in New York, New Jersey and PA for Bush to win those states - i can see him getting states like NH and iowa but nothing huge in the northeast...

    what these polls fail to take into account is likely record voter turnout - that helps the challenger every time. [/b][/quote]
    I doubt the monorities are going to turn out in any large numbers to support Kerry. He&#39;s no Clinton . Bush is polling much better with minorities this time around. He got just 7% of the black vote in 2000. This time he&#39;s polling at around 20%.

  13. #13
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Posts
    4,530
    Post Thanks / Like
    Check this out-do your own red/blue map

    [url=http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm]http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm[/url]

  14. #14
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Philly
    Posts
    38,782
    Post Thanks / Like
    [quote][i]Originally posted by chiefst2000[/i]@Oct 29 2004, 11:30 AM
    [b]
    I doubt the monorities are going to turn out in any large numbers to support Kerry. He&#39;s no Clinton . Bush is polling much better with minorities this time around. He got just 7% of the black vote in 2000. This time he&#39;s polling at around 20%. [/b][/quote]
    why are the Bush voters so motivated to show up all of a sudden? i frankly see alot of likely Bush pollers sitting at home that day cause their man hasn&#39;t done a great job... they can have whatever circus in the media in the days before the election but unless it&#39;s binladin or worse it will not register.

    Bush still has a 47% approval rating, that&#39;s garbage heading into an election... turnout on the day always favors the challenger - these are rules of thumb over the years of US general elections...

    from where i am sitting there seem to be legions of motivated voters from the armchair and in internet polls but day of the event will get turnout percentages not seen for decades... that cannot be good for Bush.

    voting in a city and suburbia is often more convenient location-wise for those in Rural areas - simple numbers and proximity - exactly the type of areas Bush will have to steal to win states like FLA, OH and PA

  15. #15
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    6,648
    Post Thanks / Like
    [quote][i]Originally posted by bitonti+Oct 29 2004, 12:21 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>[b]QUOTE[/b] (bitonti @ Oct 29 2004, 12:21 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-chiefst2000[/i]@Oct 29 2004, 11:30 AM
    [b]
    I doubt the monorities are going to turn out in any large numbers to support Kerry. He&#39;s no Clinton . Bush is polling much better with minorities this time around. He got just 7% of the black vote in 2000. This time he&#39;s polling at around 20%. [/b][/quote]
    why are the Bush voters so motivated to show up all of a sudden? i frankly see alot of likely Bush pollers sitting at home that day cause their man hasn&#39;t done a great job... they can have whatever circus in the media in the days before the election but unless it&#39;s binladin or worse it will not register.

    Bush still has a 47% approval rating, that&#39;s garbage heading into an election... turnout on the day always favors the challenger - these are rules of thumb over the years of US general elections...

    from where i am sitting there seem to be legions of motivated voters from the armchair and in internet polls but day of the event will get turnout percentages not seen for decades... that cannot be good for Bush.

    voting in a city and suburbia is often more convenient location-wise for those in Rural areas - simple numbers and proximity - exactly the type of areas Bush will have to steal to win states like FLA, OH and PA [/b][/quote]
    You haven&#39;t been watching the polls. The Bush voters are behind him big time. Kerry voters mostly say they&#39;re voting against Bush not for Kerry. (yourself included.) No one knows for sure what will happen on Election day. Best we can do is make educated guesss based on the polls.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us