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Thread: Projected Offseason Plan

  1. #1
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    Projected Offseason Plan

    Time to spice up the morning. Since this projection includes free agency and the draft, I am posting in the general site.

    The projection includes the following assumptions:
    1) Even if Chad stays, he will not be ready to play this season, and will be the third quarterback on the depth chart. So, his decision does not affect this plan. For those of you who honestly think he will be ready, I think it is highly unlikely, and so, there is no way he is higher than third on the depth chart for next year.
    2) Jets will trade Abe, although we can debate on the compensation. But, unless the Chargers are willing to part with Rivers for him, then I don't think he is being traded for a player. Only possibility would be in a trade for Ramsey, if a pick is also included. Player for player trades, however, are very uncommon and difficult to pull off. Nor do I see us going after Brees, since his shoulder will bring back memories of Chad.

    So here goes:
    Free agent releases: Jets release: Fabini, Sowell, Kendall, Law. Renegotiate with Mawae, Martin, Coles, Robertson, and Ellis.
    1) Jets go after a veteran quarterback who will not be costly: They swing a trade for Patrick Ramsey for a 5th-6th round pick, or less likely Schaub for a 3rd. Why Ramsey for a 5th-6th if he will be cut anyway? Well, if he is cut, then you're competing against Miami, Detroit, etc., and you have to pay him more. Give a low-round pick, and he's yours for a reasonable price.
    2) Jets trade John Abraham to the Atlanta Falcons, for the 15th pick overall in the first round, one in front of Miami (alternative Minnesota at 17)
    3) Jets sign Ma'ake Kemoeatu to solidify the DT position. Jets resign Chris Baker at TE. Jets resign Pete Kendall for the veteran minimum. Jets sign Tom Ashworth. If Jets can't sign Baker, look for Christian Fauria to resurface with them.
    4) On draft day, Bush, Leinart and Young are off the board. Jets select Mario Williams with the 4th overall pick to replace John Abraham.
    5) With the 15th overall pick, the Jets select Demeco Ryans, OLB (unless for some reason, Cutler has dropped, but he likely won't last past Detroit at 9) Alternative: Chad Greenway, also would not rule out a TE like Vernon Davis here.
    6) With the 35th pick, Jets select best available offensive tackle: (winston justice, marcus mcneil, jonathan scott) or target Greg Eslinger to develop behind Mawae.
    7) With their third round pick, Jets select Brodie Croyle to develop behind Ramsey. If he is already gone, they target TE, WR, or guard/center. Target Charlie Whitehurst later in Round 4 or 5.

    Note that no high-round RB is selected in this scenario. Jets retain Martin, Houston, and Blaylock for this year... will likely have a high draft pick next year, as the team develops... target RB early in next year's draft when the team is much more developed, and Curtis is one year older.

    Possible downsides:

    1) They pass up the opportunity to take D'Brick, but Bellichick/Parcells teams have consistently passed up the opportunity to draft tackles early in the first round. Most recent example was Orlando Pace in 1997, trading down to get Farrior at 6). Matt Light was a second round pick for the Pats. This is also a decent draft for tackles through the second round, and Adrian Jones will continue to develop for the Jets as a left tackle. So we're really talking about a replacement for Fabini here at right tackle.
    2) They take a pass on Cutler, unless he falls to 15. Let's face it, here. He's high risk, high reward, sort of like Ryan Leaf. If we don't see the development from our quarterbacks in the next year, we could target qb high in round 1 next year, when Brady Quinn and Brohm are coming out. There is no way we are winning more than 6 games this year, even with the brightest scenarios. This is clearly a rebuilding year, and I'm not a darksider. Think of us like the Dolphins last year. It would be a miracle if we won 9 games, but playoffs...no. Not the first overall pick, but top 10 for sure.

    Always hard to predict what they will do, but fun nonetheless. Also incorporates some assumptions about draft philosophy and free agency that I think we will likely see with this front office. With so many needs, hard to imagine they will be trading up in this draft. Also could see them trading down, perhaps taking a D'Brick at 4, and then consummating a trade at 7 with San Francisco, who would select Cutler for them, and trade him back to the jets... Jets would then receive their 2nd round pick in return. That would be a great alternative, and would protect the Jets from a trade-down scenario where a team leap-frogs them to get Cutler. Noone would expect SF to take Cutler, so the Jets would be pulling a coup if they could swing such a trade with SF. In this latter scenario, the Jets would suddenly have two 1sts, and two 2nds, which would allow them to target tackle, TE, OLB/CB, and DE. Or if Cutler is gone, they keep D'Brick and draft defense at 15 with OLB like Ryans or Greenway.

    Comments?

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by phillyjet
    Possible downsides:

    1) They pass up the opportunity to take D'Brick, but Bellichick/Parcells teams have consistently passed up the opportunity to draft tackles early in the first round. Most recent example was Orlando Pace in 1997, trading down to get Farrior at 6).

    yeah and look how that turned out. crappy.

    take great offense to the thinking they will only win 6 games. Every year teams go from worst to first.

    cancel the entire season?

    they can't approach the offseason thinking they won't win until 2009. They have to try to win as soon as possible, the only thing rebuilding guaruntees is the stigma of being a perennial loser.

    also Mario Williams < Johnny Abe so that's a downgrade.

    the QB solutions you are presenting are kinda wishy washy. Croyle will be gone in the second, possibly high second. Schaub doesn't look like he's available. Ramsey flat out sucks he's going to get cut and gibbs is never wrong about QBs.

    Comparing Cutler to Ryan Leaf is baseless.

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    Hard to say that had we drafted Pace, we would have been any better off. But, at the same time, it is evidence of a track record in personnel for Tannenbaum's mentors. And I'm not saying they should tank the season. But, let's face it, the chances that they get to .500 are going to be slim. I'd be as happy as the next person if they proved me wrong. But, I would compare the Jets to the Fins and the Browns this past offseason, and those teams didn't have $12 million in dead cap money invested in a qb who will likely not play a snap next season.

  4. #4
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    Offense first

    I don't post often, but I do monitor the board often. It would seem to me the following scenario would make sense:

    1. Trade our #2 to Atlanta for Schaub. (Ramsey is an interception machine who gets rattled under pressure. And he will be under pressure - Our O-line will not be that good next year.)

    2. Trade Abraham for pick(s). Will get a low #1 or high #2 I IMO.

    3. Trade down with a team that covets Cutler/Brick from the #4 pick and get a #1 and high # 2 in return. (and maybe a mid rounder somewhere...)


    We have our quarterback and 3 picks in the first two rounds - two #1's and a #2.

    With the the first #1 we take best avail Tackle.

    With second #1 take either Deangelo (if avail) or best avail corner/linebacker.

    With our #2 take best avail Offensive Guard. / or if we take Deangelo then corner/linebacker

    Sign a vet retread to back up Schaub. Have them comptete during camp, if Schaub can't get it done draft a top QB in '07.


    For round 3 - if we already have Deangelo - draft O-line again, if not, look RB, maybe D.

    Naturally, sign a vet or two to compete for the O-line.

  5. #5
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    abraham for schaub and a 4th rounder, draft ferguson.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by bitonti
    yeah and look how that turned out. crappy.

    take great offense to the thinking they will only win 6 games. Every year teams go from worst to first.

    cancel the entire season?

    they can't approach the offseason thinking they won't win until 2009. They have to try to win as soon as possible, the only thing rebuilding guaruntees is the stigma of being a perennial loser.

    also Mario Williams < Johnny Abe so that's a downgrade.

    the QB solutions you are presenting are kinda wishy washy. Croyle will be gone in the second, possibly high second. Schaub doesn't look like he's available. Ramsey flat out sucks he's going to get cut and gibbs is never wrong about QBs.

    Comparing Cutler to Ryan Leaf is baseless.

    exactly, teams do go from rags to riches failry quickly, so rebuilding in 06 shouldn't be a problem... it makes it that much easier to contend in 07

  7. #7
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    Id be really upset if the draft went like that. I hate the idea of us taking Mario WIlliams. He is a monster, but DE is still not our biggest area of concern, despite the fact that we lose Abe.

    I hope in that scenario we either take the Brick, Ngata or trade down.

  8. #8
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    don't disagree that teams can have quick turnarounds. But, most teams are not facing what we are facing right now. We don't have a quarterback, and our offensive skill positions, particularly on offense, are lacking. Add to that, a new offensive and defensive system, and a young staff, and you are asking too much for this turn-around. Sure, they would love to win 10 games next year, but let's be realistic here. I would consider 6-10 or 7-9 real progress if they were in every game, and they played tough.

    If you look at those teams who have made a quick turn-around, most have had key pieces in place and continuity in their coaching staff. The Seahawks had Hasselback and Alexander. The Steelers last year had a bruising defense, a great offensive line, and a running game so that they could shield the development of Roethlisberger. Meanwhile, teams like the niners and Browns are still circling the drain for a reason. They will continue to get better, but they will take more time, sort of like Cincinatti, which took a couple of years to reach the playoffs. We are more like them than the few teams who have made a quick turn-around.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brick Tamland
    Id be really upset if the draft went like that. I hate the idea of us taking Mario WIlliams. He is a monster, but DE is still not our biggest area of concern, despite the fact that we lose Abe.

    I hope in that scenario we either take the Brick, Ngata or trade down.
    You hate the idea of drafting the next Julius Peppers/Richard Seymour?? It is thinking like this that keeps this franchise from ever becoming elite. YOU NEVER PASS ON THIS KIND OF PLAYER. We are going to have alot of picks in this draft; more than enough to address the offensive line or even defensive tackle, if don't sign one in free agency.

    DRAFT THE MONSTER!

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by phillyjet
    Time to spice up the morning. Since this projection includes free agency and the draft, I am posting in the general site.

    The projection includes the following assumptions:
    1) Even if Chad stays, he will not be ready to play this season, and will be the third quarterback on the depth chart. So, his decision does not affect this plan. For those of you who honestly think he will be ready, I think it is highly unlikely, and so, there is no way he is higher than third on the depth chart for next year.
    2) Jets will trade Abe, although we can debate on the compensation. But, unless the Chargers are willing to part with Rivers for him, then I don't think he is being traded for a player. Only possibility would be in a trade for Ramsey, if a pick is also included. Player for player trades, however, are very uncommon and difficult to pull off. Nor do I see us going after Brees, since his shoulder will bring back memories of Chad.

    So here goes:
    Free agent releases: Jets release: Fabini, Sowell, Kendall, Law. Renegotiate with Mawae, Martin, Coles, Robertson, and Ellis.
    1) Jets go after a veteran quarterback who will not be costly: They swing a trade for Patrick Ramsey for a 5th-6th round pick, or less likely Schaub for a 3rd. Why Ramsey for a 5th-6th if he will be cut anyway? Well, if he is cut, then you're competing against Miami, Detroit, etc., and you have to pay him more. Give a low-round pick, and he's yours for a reasonable price.
    2) Jets trade John Abraham to the Atlanta Falcons, for the 15th pick overall in the first round, one in front of Miami (alternative Minnesota at 17)
    3) Jets sign Ma'ake Kemoeatu to solidify the DT position. Jets resign Chris Baker at TE. Jets resign Pete Kendall for the veteran minimum. Jets sign Tom Ashworth. If Jets can't sign Baker, look for Christian Fauria to resurface with them.
    4) On draft day, Bush, Leinart and Young are off the board. Jets select Mario Williams with the 4th overall pick to replace John Abraham.
    5) With the 15th overall pick, the Jets select Demeco Ryans, OLB (unless for some reason, Cutler has dropped, but he likely won't last past Detroit at 9) Alternative: Chad Greenway, also would not rule out a TE like Vernon Davis here.
    6) With the 35th pick, Jets select best available offensive tackle: (winston justice, marcus mcneil, jonathan scott) or target Greg Eslinger to develop behind Mawae.
    7) With their third round pick, Jets select Brodie Croyle to develop behind Ramsey. If he is already gone, they target TE, WR, or guard/center. Target Charlie Whitehurst later in Round 4 or 5.

    Note that no high-round RB is selected in this scenario. Jets retain Martin, Houston, and Blaylock for this year... will likely have a high draft pick next year, as the team develops... target RB early in next year's draft when the team is much more developed, and Curtis is one year older.

    Possible downsides:

    1) They pass up the opportunity to take D'Brick, but Bellichick/Parcells teams have consistently passed up the opportunity to draft tackles early in the first round. Most recent example was Orlando Pace in 1997, trading down to get Farrior at 6). Matt Light was a second round pick for the Pats. This is also a decent draft for tackles through the second round, and Adrian Jones will continue to develop for the Jets as a left tackle. So we're really talking about a replacement for Fabini here at right tackle.
    2) They take a pass on Cutler, unless he falls to 15. Let's face it, here. He's high risk, high reward, sort of like Ryan Leaf. If we don't see the development from our quarterbacks in the next year, we could target qb high in round 1 next year, when Brady Quinn and Brohm are coming out. There is no way we are winning more than 6 games this year, even with the brightest scenarios. This is clearly a rebuilding year, and I'm not a darksider. Think of us like the Dolphins last year. It would be a miracle if we won 9 games, but playoffs...no. Not the first overall pick, but top 10 for sure.

    Always hard to predict what they will do, but fun nonetheless. Also incorporates some assumptions about draft philosophy and free agency that I think we will likely see with this front office. With so many needs, hard to imagine they will be trading up in this draft. Also could see them trading down, perhaps taking a D'Brick at 4, and then consummating a trade at 7 with San Francisco, who would select Cutler for them, and trade him back to the jets... Jets would then receive their 2nd round pick in return. That would be a great alternative, and would protect the Jets from a trade-down scenario where a team leap-frogs them to get Cutler. Noone would expect SF to take Cutler, so the Jets would be pulling a coup if they could swing such a trade with SF. In this latter scenario, the Jets would suddenly have two 1sts, and two 2nds, which would allow them to target tackle, TE, OLB/CB, and DE. Or if Cutler is gone, they keep D'Brick and draft defense at 15 with OLB like Ryans or Greenway.

    Comments?
    I like!

  11. #11
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    forget atlanta trading #15 and 7 mill for ABE.

  12. #12
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    Hey Phillyjet,
    Are you devilsjets on nfldraftcountdown.com?

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    I don't post on nfldraftcountdown, so it's not me.

    With regards to Patman's claim that Atlanta would not be a trading partner for Abe, I wouldn't rule them out. If the Jets franchise Abe, they will likely allow him and his agent the opportunity to identify potential trading partners. Abe makes his offseason home in the Atlanta area, so if he had his choice, he'd probably be there. And last I checked, they could use Abe on the defensive side of the ball. Abe's value at 15 will far surpass all of the defensive players still left at that spot.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by phillyjet
    I don't post on nfldraftcountdown, so it's not me.
    Ok, someone is plagiarizing then. I just saw the exact same plan with the same title on one of their forums.

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    That would be funny. Didn't think plagiarizing me was worth the time of day.

  16. #16
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    hey Jet Fanatic,

    Not sure what you're talking about. Went over to nfldraftcountdown and to their forums, and found a post on a mock offseason by devilsjets this afternoon. It isn't remotely similar, except for the fact we both agree that we will trade Abe, and we agree on some of the cuts. Beyond that, there is nothing similar about the two posts. He has us swinging multiple trades and drafting Winston Justice and Manny Lawson in the first round. How is that similar or plagiarizing this plan?

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by phillyjet
    There is no way we are winning more than 6 games this year, even with the brightest scenarios. This is clearly a rebuilding year, and I'm not a darksider. Think of us like the Dolphins last year. It would be a miracle if we won 9 games, but playoffs...no. Not the first overall pick, but top 10 for sure.
    I also take offense to this assumption. Have you seen how easy our schedule is?? True we have a lot of changes to the organization on all levels. It may be a rebuilding year, but there's no way we lose 10 games to the bottom-feeders that we play next season. If you look at our upcoming games, I can definately see us going 9-7 and squeaking into the playoffs. Either way its an exciting time to be a Jets fan.

  18. #18
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    Philly Jet

    I love your offseason scenario. As Ive said many times before, Championship teams are built inside out and DEFENSE wins championships. This years draft has a ton of studs available on the OL and on D. I totally agree wiyh getting mario williams with #4. IMO hes one of the top 3 prospects available (along with Bush and D'Brick) and unlike Cutler, Young, and Leinart he is an ELITE prospect. Those guys are all average at best and dont warrant a top 5 pick.
    I also like taking the best available LB with our second 1st round pick. We are likely to go to a hybrid 3-4/4-3 and will need some good LBs to play, and this years draft has a number of stars that will go in the first day. Anyone who thinks we already have good LBs is delusional. Outside of Vilma there are no stars. Barton is OK when healthy but everyone else flat out SUCKS.

    also Mario Williams < Johnny Abe so that's a downgrade.
    You must be high if you think this. J Abe is an undersized speed rusher who finally played all 16 games in a contract year. Mario Williams is an absolute freak of nature. At 6'7 295 lbs and a 4.75 fourty, he is a rare specimen that is hard to come by in the NFL, he has an incredible motor, his coaches glow over his work ethic, can pass rush as well as disrupt running games.And Unlike Abe , Williams can play end in either a 3-4 or 4-3. Sure he hasnt proven anything yet in the NFL, but what rookie has? IMO this kid is going to be a star. He will redefine the DE position. We MUST get him!
    Last edited by kennyo7; 02-19-2006 at 05:16 PM.

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    Kendall

    You lost me when you said sign Kendall for NFL minimum. The guy deserves a little respect for center for Mawae. That's not easy to do. And when he was learning on the job and the NY media crucified him, he took it like a man. It won't work if we don't respect our vets man. Imagine rookies seeing this BS and saying to myself, I'm not volunteering for anything. This organization sucks.

  20. #20
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    RMJK,

    Understood what you are saying about Kendall. I love the guy as a player, and would love to see him back here. But, face it, he's a guard, who's getting near his mid-30's. He will not be commanding the big salary anymore. He's had his pay-day. I'd be surprised if he gets much above the vet minimum, maybe a couple hundred thousand signing bonus. It's just the reality for his position and his age. Not disrespecting him the player. He would still be an important piece.

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