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Thread: Very Long Breakdown of the Bills Matchup

  1. #1

    Very Long Breakdown of the Bills Matchup

    Buffalo has played much better since their bye week posting a 3-2 record with a one point loss to Indianapolis and a three point loss to the Chargers. They have a 2-4 record away from home and only 3 of their 7 losses have been by more than 3 points this season. The team was blown away by Chicago and New England and lost to the Jets by 8 points earlier this season. Their biggest margin of victory was 14 against Green Bay and 3 of their wins have been by 5 points or less.

    Offense:

    JP Losman has played better of late. The team adjusted its offense somewhat to try to protect him from his awful offensive line running more 3 and 5 step drops rather than 7 step drops where he has no time to setup and look down the field. He is playing much safer and in his last 5 games is completing 64.6% of his passes for an average of only 146 yards a game. He has 6 Tds and 4 Ints and been sacked 14 times.

    The Bills running game is anemic. Willis McGahee is banged up and been ineffective since his return. Anthony Thomas has replaced him as the full time 3rd down back to help protect Losman better. In his two games back since injury McGahee has carried 28 times for only 89 yards. He had one big run against the Jags for 30 yards. Without that he is only averaging 2.2 YPC. He has a knack for finding the end zone though and has scored 3 times in the last two weeks. Thomas won’t carry much with McGahee back. He does average a few catches a game.

    The Bills WRs are led by Lee Evans who has dynamic speed and the ability to take over games, very similar to former Jet Santana Moss. He is Losman’s favorite target and very hard to contain. The rest of their WRs are nothing special. Josh Reed just returned from injury and is usually good for 4 receptions a game, though mainly of the short variety. Peerless Price is at the end of his career and in the last 5 weeks hasn’t had more than 25 yards receiving in any game. Roscoe Parish is a fast guy that can do a lot with the ball once its in his hands. Jet fans will remember him from the first Bill/Jet game and he has seen some balls thrown his way the last two weeks. He is a very feast or famine guy, but can change a game.

    Overall the offense is asked to do very little. The only have 67 first downs in the last 5 weeks which is an average of 13.4 per game. That is the worst in the NFL. The Jets average 18 a game by comparison. In their 5 game streak the offense has produced 17 scoring drives for 91 points. 10 Tds and 7 FGs. Of those drives 6 have begun in the opposing teams territory. 12 drives have begun beyond the Buffalo 30 yard line. Only 5 drives have been from deep inside their own territory over their 5 game run.

    Defense:

    The defense relies on the “bend but don’t break” philosophy and tries to create turnovers to keep the game in check. Opposing QBs are completing 67.7% of their passes in the last 5 games and 64.8% on the season, which is near the bottom of the NFL. The teams are averaging about 210 YPG against them. The team features a strong pass rush getting to the QB 10 times in the last 5 games an 32 times this season. Their front 4 is a handful. Chris Kelsay has 5 sacks and Aaron Schobel 9.5. The team just lost starting LB Angelo Crowell for the season. He and London Fletcher both factored prominently in the pass defense, so its up to Fletcher to play even better than he has to make up for the loss. Nate Clements can make plays on the ball in the secondary. The rest of that unit is a work in progress. They team has intercepted 3 passes and only given up 4 Tds through the air since their bye week.

    The run defense is equally bad. As is often the case with great pass rushers they can be overaggressive and overpursue plays at time. Teams are averaging 4.8 YPC and 5.9 in the last 5 games giving up 4 TDs on the ground. To give an idea of how bad they are the Houston Texans gained 188 yards on only 28 carries against them.

    This defense can create havoc. Along with the Ints they are great at stripping the ball from the opposing team. Teams have fumbled 8 times in the last 5 games against the Bills which is a staggering number. That is what is keeping them in games. If they don’t create turnovers they are climbing a huge uphill battle against the opposing team.

    Special Teams:

    This is a big area of strength for Buffalo. KR Terrance McGee is explosive. He was injured in the San Diego game and could miss the game this week which is a major blow to the Bills. The team is averaging more than 25 yards per kick return. They average over 12 yards a punt return and almost 18 a game in their last 5. Both their FG kicker and punter are near the top of the NFL and the coverage teams are near the top of the league. In the previous 5 games teams are averaging 17.8 yards per KR and 5.9 yard per punt return.

    Overall:

    This is a game where the Jets should hold an advantage. The Jet defense is playing very well and the Bills offense is miserable. Willis McGahee has been a Jet killer in his career averaging 116 yards per game. If the team can reverse that trend it will be very hard for Buffalo to do anything consistently in the game. Being overaggressive with blitz calls could hurt the Jets. The Bills are basically a big strike team. Leaving someone on an island with Lee Evans or Roscoe Parish could result in a big gainer for a TD if the rush doesn’t get to Losman.

    The Jet offensive line basically shut down the pass rush of the Bills early on this year keeping Chad basically untouched and has been a strong point all year of the team. Keep Chad upright and he should tear the defense up. Coles, Cotchery and Baker all could have big games. Houston and Washington could be called on alot to wear them down and keep them honest. As long as the team protects the ball they should be fine.

    If McGee is healthy it could be a bad situation for the Jets if Nugent has one of those days where nothing reaches beyond the 10. While the Bills coverage team is good Justin Miller should do very well and I would think get at least one big runback if the Bills can put up some points to be forced to kickoff. The punting game is going to feature 2 guys who don’t let teams return much and should be an even matchup.

    This is a game where the Jets should win. Buffalo was basically eliminated from the playoffs last week with a tough loss at home to the Chargers. That can have a bad effect on a team. They could show up and just go through the motions, especially with a game being on the road. Im not sure if this team has the same fire to beat the Jets the way the Dolphins do, who really hate the Jets. I would think if the team jumps out to a quick lead the Bills could pack it in. Even if they don’t and the Jets protect the ball the Jets should win comfortably. It will be a physical game and is certainly not a gimme, but I think most people will like the Jets this week. 24-13.

  2. #2
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    Jesus....Jason..thanks for the write up..I will have to read it in the morning..I'm crashing...I had to thank you first though..

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    Quote Originally Posted by bill parcells
    Jesus....Jason..thanks for the write up..I will have to read it in the morning..I'm crashing...I had to thank you first though..
    Ditto. I can't wait to read this tomorrow. I've bet and won a decent amount of money on the Jets the last two weeks, but I'm not as confident this week...

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    Outstanding, thanks

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    Nice assessment. Thanks. This is indeed a game the Jets should win.

  6. #6
    well researched and written assessment! Thanks for the good read!!!

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    Great post Jason....my vote for most underrated poster

    how can this thread only get 4 replies and make it to the 4th page...oh thats right we had to make room for more late night threads and kenyan watering holes

  8. #8
    Thank yee, Jason. As Borat would say, "very niiice"

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    Good work. I'm trying to absorb it but it's too late for my brain to engage, so here's my short version...


    McGahee will run for 125 yards and 1 TD.
    Chad will pick apart the Bills secondary for 2 TDs.
    The Jets will sack the crap out of Losman and strip him at least once.
    Special teams will be interesting on both sides of the ball.

    Jets win 27-17.

    Any questions?

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    Good job Jason and right on. This game scares me. They'd like nothing better than to crash our post season party. I know the Bills team very well since I get stuck watching them nearly every week. They have been playing very well as of late and actually could have won that Charger game. They've let JP loose and actually try to win rather than try not to lose. As I said this game scares me, of course part of that is that I'll never hear the end of it out here if they win and I have a ton of $$ bet on our Jets. Go Green !!

  11. #11
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    Excellent write up. Thanks.

    You right about the wildcard tiebreakers, by the way. But I guess you already knew that.

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    Great write up, particularly the part about the Fins

  13. #13
    Thanks for the feedback guys.

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    If McGahee is banged up then our chances of winning go up a lot. He has killed us in the past. I think our blitzing will give Losman fits.

    Nice job, Jason.

  15. #15
    as a bills fan, i have to say that assessment was pretty objective and dead-on about our team.

    here's to a good game!

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    You don't get alot of attention around these parts Jason, but you are a very good poster. You know your football. Great breakdown of Buffalo.

    The thing that Buffalo is capable of doing is making big plays on all 3 of their units. They have big play ability on offense, defense and special teams. Their special teams scare me and their speedy wideouts present a big challenge for us.

    I think that The Bills are much better than the last two teams that we faced. The Jets don't match up well with Buffalo and our games with them are always tight.

    We got outplayed at the line of scrimmage the last time we played them. Their offense generated 500 yards and we were in the 275 range.

    The difference in that 28 to 20 victory by the Jets was the Bills 3 turnovers. We had none. Those 3 turnovers led to points for us. We had a defensive touchdown on one of those turnovers, where Victor Hobson actually stepped out of bounds and Buffalo botched a field goal attempt.

    There were some key point swings in that game. I was pleased with the way that the Jets fought back in that game because Buffalo jumped on us early and almost knocked us out quickly.

    This is going to be a tough game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by YJF
    You don't get alot of attention around these parts Jason, but you are a very good poster. You know your football. Great breakdown of Buffalo.

    The thing that Buffalo is capable of doing is making big plays on all 3 of their units. They have big play ability on offense, defense and special teams. Their special teams scare me and their speedy wideouts present a big challenge for us.

    I think that The Bills are much better than the last two teams that we faced. The Jets don't match up well with Buffalo and our games with them are always tight.

    We got outplayed at the line of scrimmage the last time we played them. Their offense generated 500 yards and we were in the 275 range.

    The difference in that 28 to 20 victory by the Jets was the Bills 3 turnovers. We had none. Those 3 turnovers led to points for us. We had a defensive touchdown on one of those turnovers, where Victor Hobson actually stepped out of bounds and Buffalo botched a field goal attempt.

    There were some key point swings in that game. I was pleased with the way that the Jets fought back in that game because Buffalo jumped on us early and almost knocked us out quickly.

    This is going to be a tough game.
    we were a much different team back then...moreso than them. Also, despite all this line of scrimmage domination by Buffalo, don't discount the fact that we won on the road. That was absolutely huge. Also, the domination was overblown. Other than the 1st quarter, the Jets moved the ball pretty easily and when they had to. A lot of their yards were in garbage time, as well. We pretty much own them here in the Meadowlands.

    Despite the Bills mediocre rubn for the last decade, it amzes me (and I sound like a broken record) how Many Jets fans still fear playing them.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by LesterLyles
    we were a much different team back then...moreso than them. Also, despite all this line of scrimmage domination by Buffalo, don't discount the fact that we won on the road. That was absolutely huge. Also, the domination was overblown. Other than the 1st quarter, the Jets moved the ball pretty easily and when they had to. A lot of their yards were in garbage time, as well. We pretty much own them here in the Meadowlands.

    Despite the Bills mediocre rubn for the last decade, it amzes me (and I sound like a broken record) how Many Jets fans still fear playing them.
    The Bills did have a chance at the end of the game to beat us. Thats probably the best argument against my theory that the team may give up after last weeks loss. All season Buffalo has tried to climb back into games when it seemed hopeless. They did it against us. They did it last week against San Diego. Knock them down they seem to get back up.

    I agree about the Bills always being overblown as contenders, but this is probably the best squad, despite the record, since the Doug Flutie team that did ok(1999?).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jason423
    The Bills did have a chance at the end of the game to beat us. Thats probably the best argument against my theory that the team may give up after last weeks loss. All season Buffalo has tried to climb back into games when it seemed hopeless. They did it against us. They did it last week against San Diego. Knock them down they seem to get back up.

    I agree about the Bills always being overblown as contenders, but this is probably the best squad, despite the record, since the Doug Flutie team that did ok(1999?).
    The Bills have had alot of chances at the end of games and they have kept games close because of their ability to make big plays on offense, defense and special teams. They've scored on big plays on all 3 units this year.

    They could get dominated at the line of scrimmage all game and then get a big return, defensive play or a long gainer on offense.

    What sticks out for me with Buffalo is their team speed. They have alot of it. They are a much faster team than the Jets are.

    The Jets need to control the line of scrimmage and play some power football.

  20. #20
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    Nice write up Jason.

    I'm hoping for each unit to score at least once though.

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