Results 1 to 3 of 3

Thread: If the season ended today......

  1. #1
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Albany, NY
    Posts
    1,361

    If the season ended today......

    I found a playoff bracket on cbs sportsline I thought was interesting. If the season ended today we would be the 6th seed and play at Baltimore, then, if we won it would be at Indy.

    http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/playoffrace/bracket

  2. #2
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Albany, NY
    Posts
    1,361
    Add this read to your playoff reading. Talk about figuring out every angle.

    Prior to heading into the murky tiebreaker waters of the NFC (does ANYBODY want to make the playoffs in that conference?), I'll add another scenario for the AFC and it involves the red-hot Baltimore Ravens.

    Baltimore cannot clinch the AFC North title this week even though it can claim a three-game lead on Cincinnati with three games to go with a win and a Bengals loss. Since the Ravens and Bengals split their home-and-home series this year, the next tiebreaker step in divisional ties is division record and Cincinnati can still best Baltimore in that category. So...no division clinching scenario for Baltimore...at least not yet.

    However, the Ravens could clinch a playoff berth this week with a number of events going their way. If Baltimore wins at Kansas City, it would also need a Cincinnati loss, a NY Jets loss and a Denver loss AND Baltimore would need to clinch the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over the NY Jets. Here's how this breaks down in this installment of TIEBREAKERS 101 (it would be helpful to have our standings page open in a browser as you walk through these steps):

    * Baltimore win gets Ravens to 10-3. When assessing a team's ability to clinch a playoff berth, you need to assume it will lose the rest of its games (10-6 overall and 7-5 in the conference in this case) going forward and create a scenario where it's assured of at least the #6 seed.

    * At this point, there are nine teams that can get to 10-6 or better records and potentially deny Baltimore a playoff spot. They include NE and NYJ in the East, Baltimore and Cincy in the North, Indy and Jax in the South and SD, KC and Denver in the West. To get Baltimore in the playoffs this next week, we need to eliminate three teams' ability to either beat the Ravens outright or beat them in any tiebreaker.

    * A Baltimore win means a Kansas City loss and since the Ravens would have a head-to-head win against the Chiefs and the Chiefs couldn't catch the Ravens on conference record (6-6 at best for KC and 7-5 at worst for Baltimore), that should kick KC out of the mix. The only other saving possibility you have to consider is could KC still win the division with a loss this week, thus not needing to beat Baltimore in a tiebreaker. The answer is the Chiefs can still win the division at 10-6, but only if San Diego loses out and in this scenario for the Ravens we have Denver losing this week which means a San Diego win and KC can't win the division. So...bye bye KC. One down, two to go!

    * The Cincinnati loss, although it doesn't clinch the division title this week for Baltimore, is key here as a 7-6 Bengals squad would then have to win out to deny Baltimore the division title.

    * Since the Bengals would have to win out, that would include a win in Week 16 at Denver and, combined with a Denver loss at San Diego (also included in scenario above) would give the Broncos seven losses and they couldn't catch the Ravens. So...see ya Denver. Two down, one to go!

    * Next up, the NY Jets. The Jets play Buffalo at home and a loss in this scenario would get them to 7-6 (10-6 at best) and 5-5 in the conference (7-5 at best). The Jets and Ravens don't play each other this year.

    * Before we go down the tiebreaker steps between these two teams, let's see what happens if the Jets can win the AFC East to avoid the tie situation with Baltimore. The problem with that scenario is, although the Jets could win the division at 10-6 (with a New England loss or tie this week at Miami), that would then eliminate New England for Baltimore either on overall record or, if New England ends up 10-6 with the Jets and loses the tiebreaker to NY, the best conference record the Patriots would have is 6-6...not good enough to beat Baltimore at 7-5.

    * OK...back to Jets and Ravens. Since they would both end up at 10-6 overall and 7-5 in the conference in this scenario, the next tiebreaker step for Wild Card ties is record against common opponents. Under this situation, both teams would end up with 3-2 records against common opponents (Tennessee, Buffalo, Cleveland and Oakland).

    * So....the next step is a weird stat called "Strength of Victory" which simply means the winning percentage of the teams you have defeated this year. Baltimore currently owns a .463 to .405 SOV advantage at this point. If you look forward to SOV records with both teams ending up at 10-6 in this scenario, Baltimore would hold an 11-game edge at 57-63 to New York's 46-74. Depending on which other teams win or lose this week, there is a chance that Baltimore could mathematically clinch the SOV advantage at the end of the regular season. That would eliminate the Jets from the Ravens' path and down goes team number three!

    * To recap the situation, if Baltimore wins and Cincinnati loses and the Jets lose and Denver loses and Baltimore clinches Strength of Victory over the Jets then the Ravens will have clinched an AFC playoff berth. Whew! Hey....and that's just one team's chance to clinch in one scenario.

    Now....the NFC Wild Card is bound to get ugly. I'll get back to you later on Tuesday on that.

  3. #3
    JetsInsider.com Legend
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    50,788
    Quote Originally Posted by j e t s
    If the season ended today......
    ....I would want alot of my ticket money back.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us