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Thread: Relevance Of Combine

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    Relevance Of Combine

    I don't follow the draft the way you guys do, so maybe you can lend some insight. I read the posts and see comments about how "this guy's draft slot will improve greatly AFTER THE COMBINE". It seems ridiculous to me that someone can have a 3-4 year college career, but then "shoot up the board" b/c of their combine results (i.e. Dwayne Robertson shooting up to #4, when he wasn't even 1st team All-Conference).

    I know it happens every year, but is there much validity to it? If so, please provide examples of players whose combine numbers placed them in a DESERVEDLY higher draft slot than they were pre-combine. Otherwise, I'll just hope some other team falls for this year's hype, allowing a true talent to fall to us @6.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OCCH View Post
    I don't follow the draft the way you guys do, so maybe you can lend some insight. I read the posts and see comments about how "this guy's draft slot will improve greatly AFTER THE COMBINE". It seems ridiculous to me that someone can have a 3-4 year college career, but then "shoot up the board" b/c of their combine results (i.e. Dwayne Robertson shooting up to #4, when he wasn't even 1st team All-Conference).

    I know it happens every year, but is there much validity to it? If so, please provide examples of players whose combine numbers placed them in a DESERVEDLY higher draft slot than they were pre-combine. Otherwise, I'll just hope some other team falls for this year's hype, allowing a true talent to fall to us @6.
    Shawne Merriman springs to mind.

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    You are certainly right about the hype. I think one reason that people place such stock in combine is that for a variery of reasons they think they can mould raw talent into the next super star. Teams I would think do get seduced by measureables over production, thinking that they can turn that monster into a great player via coaching and or situation.

    One has to be very wary of these guys as they can certainly bite you in the rump. I think the best use of this info is when you look at an already productive player and he has huge comine numbers as opposed to a guy that didn't do much in college but has the hue numbers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by doggin94it View Post
    Shawne Merriman springs to mind.

    his college teammate Vernon Davis was a bigger winner...

    everyone concentrates on 40's/BP/vert's/position workouts....the biggest value to the teams are the medical exams and interviews....

    many of these guys will have another chance to run or workout but only in rare instances will they undergo more MRI's, x-ray or orthopedic exams....

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by OCCH View Post
    I don't follow the draft the way you guys do, so maybe you can lend some insight. I read the posts and see comments about how "this guy's draft slot will improve greatly AFTER THE COMBINE". It seems ridiculous to me that someone can have a 3-4 year college career, but then "shoot up the board" b/c of their combine results (i.e. Dwayne Robertson shooting up to #4, when he wasn't even 1st team All-Conference).

    I know it happens every year, but is there much validity to it? If so, please provide examples of players whose combine numbers placed them in a DESERVEDLY higher draft slot than they were pre-combine. Otherwise, I'll just hope some other team falls for this year's hype, allowing a true talent to fall to us @6.
    Think of the combine like the SATs and a player's college career like grades. Some players had more help than others and may have looked better in college than they would in the NFL. The combine sorts out which player is the tallest, strongest, fastest, etc. Some small school players rocket upwards in the draft because even if they played great in college, no one was watching anyway. If it wasn't for the combine, Revis would have gone on day two. On the other hand, so would Dwayne Robertson.

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    Quote Originally Posted by James Hasty View Post
    Think of the combine like the SATs and a player's college career like grades. Some players had more help than others and may have looked better in college than they would in the NFL. The combine sorts out which player is the tallest, strongest, fastest, etc. Some small school players rocket upwards in the draft because even if they played great in college, no one was watching anyway. If it wasn't for the combine, Revis would have gone on day two. On the other hand, so would Dwayne Robertson.
    solid comparison though Revis didn't run at the combine last year...

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    Of course it's relevant. What the combine is good for is it's a neutral ground where all (Well, except for the ones who decide to skip it) work out and show what they have to offer to NFL Teams. Many people like Gholston, Harvey get to work out in Linebacker drills and prove weather or not they are fluid enough in their motions that they could handle covering somebody in the NFL. Some people prove to not be as good of an athlete as they were given credit for and fall down the draft board. Some other people prove to be a better athlete then given credit for and move up the draft board. Perhaps the most important part of the Combine however, is that each player stops by the NFL medics and gets a full extensive physical and the interview process with NFL teams.

    I know you're a bit skeptical of people who rise up the board because of this, but there are many cases where the player that rises up in workouts turns into a good NFL player. David Harris was seen as a mid rounder at this time last year until he proved that he was a better athlete then given credit for by running a 4.5 in the 40 yard dash, and those skills plus his athleticism made him one of the biggest impact rookies in the NFL last year.

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    listen to CBNY. the timed drills are not really the event - it's the interviews and medical exams that the combine is really about.

    also for the record i believe Drob did his rising after his pro day, not his combine.

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    bit is correct the interviews are most important. Forty times can move a RB or WR but have little relevance to other spots.

    Deangelo hall moved up a ton.........John Sullivan too........others off the top of my head.........Mike Mamula.........Merriman, Ware, and Ronnie Brown forty time got him the two slot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bongo59 View Post
    bit is correct the interviews are most important. Forty times can move a RB or WR but have little relevance to other spots.

    Deangelo hall moved up a ton.........John Sullivan too........others off the top of my head.........Mike Mamula.........Merriman, Ware, and Ronnie Brown forty time got him the two slot.

    The OP said deservedly, which I'm assuming he meant that their higher draft slot was justified by their performance in the NFL.
    Last edited by JohnnyHector; 01-29-2008 at 10:33 PM. Reason: typo

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    Matt Jones

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    Quote Originally Posted by Monsterxman View Post
    Matt Jones
    Matt Jones draft stock was rising well before the combine....he was outstanding at the Senior Bowl.....

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    Mario Williams teammate at DE...he plays for the Niners

    He really started at the senior bowl but the combine but him a bit higher....loved him and wished the Jets picked him

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    Quote Originally Posted by OCCH View Post
    I don't follow the draft the way you guys do, so maybe you can lend some insight. I read the posts and see comments about how "this guy's draft slot will improve greatly AFTER THE COMBINE". It seems ridiculous to me that someone can have a 3-4 year college career, but then "shoot up the board" b/c of their combine results (i.e. Dwayne Robertson shooting up to #4, when he wasn't even 1st team All-Conference).

    I know it happens every year, but is there much validity to it? If so, please provide examples of players whose combine numbers placed them in a DESERVEDLY higher draft slot than they were pre-combine. Otherwise, I'll just hope some other team falls for this year's hype, allowing a true talent to fall to us @6.
    Revis.
    Harris.

    Mario Williams(Best combine EVER)
    Patrick Willis
    Julius Peppers
    Demarcus Ware?

    2 categories to me that answer your question.
    1)Players that are good yet need to answer a specific question. For example people had Revis lower thinking he was slow, when in fact" he never ran the 40. Harris was not thought to be 4.5 fast--But as the combine showeed hes pound for pound faster then vilma.

    2)Beast. Good players that just put up monster numbers

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kerry Rhodes View Post
    Revis.
    Harris.

    Mario Williams(Best combine EVER)
    Patrick Willis
    Julius Peppers
    Demarcus Ware?

    2 categories to me that answer your question.
    1)Players that are good yet need to answer a specific question. For example people had Revis lower thinking he was slow, when in fact" he never ran the 40. Harris was not thought to be 4.5 fast--But as the combine showeed hes pound for pound faster then vilma.

    2)Beast. Good players that just put up monster numbers
    I guess my point is, how can these guys play football for YEARS, but we "don't really know anything about them until we see them run in a straight line"

    Although I do understand what guys like Bit and CBNY are saying about the interviews and what not . . . hadn't thought about that . . .

    I guess I'd just rather go with the "known commodity", than get caught up in the hype of some player whose combine shows "tremendous upside", yet was considered a mid-rounder throughout his collegiate career! JMO

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    On a related note (and I guess this is my overall question anyway), would you say the combine more often CORRECTLY raises a player's draft slot to where they rightfully belong, or more often INCORRECTLY allow players with physical skills to get drafted higher than their NFL production pans out to be.

    (I'm assuming it's the latter of the two . . .)

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    Quote Originally Posted by OCCH View Post
    On a related note (and I guess this is my overall question anyway), would you say the combine more often CORRECTLY raises a player's draft slot to where they rightfully belong, or more often INCORRECTLY allow players with physical skills to get drafted higher than their NFL production pans out to be.

    (I'm assuming it's the latter of the two . . .)
    Read about Mike Mamula for the answer. The combine turned a mediocre college player into an early first round draft pick that became....a far less than mediocre NFL player.

    Incidentally, in a more painful twist, the Eagles traded up from 12 to 7 to grab him. The Bucs, after sliding down to 12, had to settle for a DT with off-the-field issues. Warren something....Rapp...Tapp...SAPP! Yeah, Warren Sapp.

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    I think the combine can weed out players as much as over pump them. We've have a few guys in the past, the one corner from Oregon a few years back. (Browner perhaps?) that everyone and their dog seemed to have up pretty high, then he ran his 40's and had to be timed with a sun dial.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Come Back to NY View Post
    his college teammate Vernon Davis was a bigger winner...

    everyone concentrates on 40's/BP/vert's/position workouts....the biggest value to the teams are the medical exams and interviews....

    many of these guys will have another chance to run or workout but only in rare instances will they undergo more MRI's, x-ray or orthopedic exams....
    Davis was already expected to be a top 10 pick. He had the highest average YPC of any starting TE by a large margin (one of the highest of ANY receiver too) and third most yards for a TE in the nation in an awful offense and his yearly improvements had him projected at around 150% of Marcedes Lewis' senior production if Vernon hadn't declared. If Vernon had stayed for his senior year, we might have been looking at a record-setter for TE production in a college career.

    The combine confirmed his amazing athleticism, but everyone already new he had that. He was one of Maryland's best power lifters, had a 40 inch vertical (42 at the combine) and ran a 4.41 (4.38 at the combine, 4.32 practice before the combine) during the 2005 spring workouts.

    He also had a terrific interview, which if anything cemented himself as the 49ers' pick because Mike Nolan LOVES choirboys.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
    I think the combine can weed out players as much as over pump them. We've have a few guys in the past, the one corner from Oregon a few years back. (Browner perhaps?) that everyone and their dog seemed to have up pretty high, then he ran his 40's and had to be timed with a sun dial.
    Brandon Browner, Oregon State

    6'4 220 lbs corner that ran a 4.42 according to OSU coaches and did a terrific job against the hardcore Pac-10 passing game.

    "The Answer to the TO's and Moss' types"

    Clocked a 4.63 at the combine and his stock dropped through the bottom.

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