Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 41

Thread: ~ ~ ~ AFC Playoff Scenarios ~ ~ ~

  1. #1
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    dunwoody, ga ! !
    Posts
    14,604

    Arrow ~ ~ ~ AFC Playoff Scenarios ~ ~ ~

    Sunday, December 14, 2008
    AFC Playoff Scenarios

    The AFC East has its most competitive season since the first season of realignment in 2002. That year, the New England Patriots' two wins over the New York Jets gave them the AFC East title, while the Jets grabbed a wild card over the Dolphins on the strength of a superior within-division record. This year, there is the potential for the AFC East to go down into even further tiebreaker no-mans land. Three teams sit at 9-5 with two weeks to play; what's more, the Baltimore Ravens have the inside track towards the final wild-card spot, so it's win or go home for the AFC East foes. Here's how the schedules line up:

    NY Jets
    Week 16: at Seattle
    Week 17: vs Miami

    Miami Dolphins
    Week 16: at Kansas City
    Week 17: at NY Jets

    New England Patriots
    Week 16: vs Arizona
    Week 17: at Buffalo

    Each team has one sub-.500 team and one plus .500 team to play in the final weeks. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head play. The Patriots have split with both the Dolphins and the Jets, while the Jets bested the Dolphins in week 1. What matters, however, is the state of the tiebreakers at the end of the season. I feel it's best to break it down in terms of the various scenarios:

    Cliff's Notes version: 1) The Patriots need some help to get into the playoffs-- Even if they beat both the Cardinals and Bills, they need the Jets or the Dolphins to drop one of their week 16 games to make the playoffs. 2) The Monday night matchup between the Ravens and Cowboys is pivotal to the rest of the playoff picture. Should the Ravens prevail, it is unlikely that a 10-6 AFC East team will make the playoffs as a wild-card. 3) With few exceptions, the Dolphins-Jets game on December 28 will decide either the AFC East champion or the wild card should the Ravens lose both of their remaining games.

    Scenario 1: All three teams win in Week 16
    Sub-scenario 1a: Patriots lose to the Bills in week 17.
    In this case the winner of the Jets-Dolphins game would win the AFC East at 11-5, that game's loser and the Patriots would both be 10-6. Which team would win a wild-card berth? If there's a tie with the Ravens, the NFL wild-card tiebreaker rules stipulate that only one team per division can be in a tiebreaker, so the within-division rules would apply. If the Jets lost to the Dolphins, they would win a tiebreaker with the Patriots on Tiebreaker 2 (within-division play). If the Ravens beat the Jaguars, they would also win that tiebreaker. Should the Ravens lose to Jacksonville, they would match the Jets' 7-5 within-conference record, triggering "common opponents," of which the Jets and Ravens have four: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Oakland, and Miami. The Jets are 3-2 against these opponents while the Ravens are 4-1. In the less-likely tiebreaker matchup with the Colts, the Jets would lose on conference record.

    If the Dolphins instead lost, both they and the Patriots would be 3-3 in the AFC East. The next tiebreaker is record in common games. In this scenario, the 10-6 Dolphins lost to the Ravens and Texans, while the 10-6 Patriots lost to the Colts and Steelers... both teams are 10-4 in common games. The next tiebreaker is vs AFC record, and the Dolphins would be 6-6, beating the Pats' 5-7. They, of course, would not get very far in a tiebreaker against the Ravens, having lost to them in Week 7.

    Sub-Scenario 1b: Patriots defeat the Bills in Week 17.
    If the Jets win, they would grab the AFC East crown with a superior in-division record (5-1) to the Patriots (would be 4-2), and barring a complete collapse by the Colts AND Ravens, the Dolphins would be out of the playoffs. The Patriots, meanwhile, would lose a conference-record tiebreaker to the Ravens (8-4 to 7-5). If the Dolphins win, they too would be 4-2 within the division, but 8-4 in the conference, besting the Patriots' 7-5 to win the AFC East. In either scenario, the Patriots could face the Ravens in that conference record tiebreaker, and would miss the playoffs.

    Scenario 2: Everyone loses in Week 16.
    Sub-scenario 2a: Patriots lose to the Bills in Week 17, ending their season at 9-7. The Dolphins-Jets winner captures the AFC East at 10-5.
    If the Jets win, despite having the within-division tiebreaker edge over the Patriots, the Dolphins would miss the playoffs, perhaps because of their loss to Baltimore. This is also true for the Jets if they lose to the Dolphins, because of their common games record compared to Baltimore's, seen in 1a.

    Sub-scenario 2b: Patriots beat the Bills, ending their season at 10-6.
    If the Jets win, they win the tiebreaker and the AFC East as in 1b. The Patriots cannot beat either the Ravens or the Colts in a tiebreaker, as discussed above. If the Dolphins win, both they and the Patriots would be 4-2 in the AFC East and 7-5 in the AFC. This moves towards the "strength of victory" tiebreaker. I calculate a .400 percentage for the Dolphins (58-87) and a .376 for the Patriots (55-91). Naturally this can change, but given the common victories the only outcomes that matter are the Chargers' last two games (TB and DEN) and the Chiefs' Week 17 game against the Bengals. Even if the Chargers lose both and the Chiefs win, it would not put the Patriots over the top.

    If there were a three-way tie for the wildcard between the Pats, Colts, and Ravens, the Colts would get the first spot by virtue of their sweep of the other two teams. The Pats and Ravens would depend on whether their loss came against the Cowboys-- meaning they beat the Jaguars and improve their conference record to 8-4, better than the Pats' 7-5; or, if the Jaguars are the Ravens' sixth loss. In this case the Patriots and Ravens have identical conference records at 7-5, and we move to common opponents. Both have played the Steelers, Colts, Dolphins, and Raiders, with the Ravens going 2-3 same as the Patriots. We then move to strength of victory, the winning percentage of teams beaten. Under this scenario (considering both factual and hypothetical games), the Ravens currently have a .399 to .383 edge over the Patriots. With too many variables to consider, this one is a toss-up.

    Scenario 3: Pats and Jets win in Week 17
    Sub-scenario 3a: Pats and Jets win in Week 16 (both finish 11-5), Dolphins Lose (9-7). The Jets win the AFC East on the division-games tiebreak. The Patriots' wild-card chances depend on the Ravens- if they also win twice, they beat the Pats on conference record.

    Sub-scenario 3b: Pats (11-5) and Dolphins (10-6) win in Week 16, Jets Lose (10-6). Obviously the Pats win the AFC East, but here the Jets win a wild-card tiebreaker with the Dolphins due to the head-to-head sweep. This would also put them at 8-4 within the AFC, which bodes well in a potential wild-card tiebreaker with the Ravens, should Baltimore lose to Jacksonville. If the Ravens instead lose to Dallas, (beating the Jags), they too would have an 8-4 conference record. Two wins over the Dolphins brings them equal with the Ravens at 4-1 in common games, and we would move to everybody's favorite: strength of victory. In the event the Colts lose to both Jacksonville and Tennessee, finishing at 10-6, they would have an equal conference record to the Jets in this case. Strength of victory would be invoked here, because in common games the Colts and Jets are both 3-2 against the Titans, Patriots, Chargers, and Bengals. (Thanks to reader Shomu for correcting me on that bit!)

    Sub-scenario 3c: Dolphins (10-6) and Jets (11-5) win in week 16, Patriots lose (10-6). With the Jets grabbing the AFC East, the Pats and Dolphins once again would have equivalent division records, but the Dolphins have the superior AFC record at 7-5. This would do them no good against the Colts or Ravens in a wild-card tiebreak however. Only the Jets would make the playoffs in this scenario.

    Sub-scenario 3d: Pats (11-5) win in week 16; Dolphins (9-7) and Jets (10-6) lose. With the Patriots grabbing the AFC East, the Jets would need help beating the Ravens in a wildcard tiebreaker, as in 3b.

    Sub-scenario 3e: Dolphins (10-6) win in week 16; Pats (10-6) and Jets (10-6) lose. Happy three-way party! The Jets win the AFC east with a superior record against the other two teams, while the potential Pats-Dolphins tiebreaker would need to go to "strength of victory," where the Patriots currently have the advantage. The Dolphins would need some help from the Chargers and Seahawks to have a chance to win this tiebreak. Then, of course, the winner would require the Ravens losing twice to make the playoffs.

    Sub-scenario 3f: Jets (11-5) win in week 16; Pats (10-6) and Dolphins (9-7) lose. With the Jets winning the AFC East, the Patriots need the Ravens to lose both in order to make the playoffs.

    Scenario 4: Pats and Dolphins win in Week 17.
    Sub-scenario 4a: Pats (11-5) and Jets (10-6) win in Week 16, Dolphins Lose (10-6). As the Pats win the AFC East, the Jets and Dolphins finish with identical division (4-2) and conference (7-5) records. Common opponents is the next tiebreaker, and the Dolphins would be 9-3 (subtract the games against the Jets, Ravens, and Texans), which beats the Jets' 7-5 (subtract the games against the Dolphins, Titans, and Bengals). However, unless the Ravens lose both games, the Dolphins will be staying home in January.

    Sub-scenario 4b: Pats (11-5) and Dolphins (11-5) win in Week 16, Jets Lose (9-7). This is not a good scenario for this Jets fan. The Dolphins win the AFC East due to the within-conference tiebreaker. The Patriots would need the Ravens to lose one game, or the Colts to lose two, to make the playoffs.

    Sub-scenario 4c: Dolphins (11-5) and Jets (10-6) win in week 16, Patriots lose (10-6). While the Jets would win the tiebreaker over the Patriots, they once again would need the Ravens to lose both their games in order to make the playoffs.

    Sub-scenario 4d: Pats (11-5) win in week 16; Dolphins (10-6) and Jets (9-7) lose. With the Patriots grabbing the AFC East, the Dolphins would need help the Ravens to lose twice.

    Sub-scenario 4e: Dolphins (11-5) win in week 16; Pats (10-6) and Jets (9-7) lose. The Patriots would need the Ravens to lose twice to make the playoffs.

    Sub-scenario 4f: Jets (10-6) win in week 16; Pats (10-6) and Dolphins (10-6) lose. Another three way tie, this time a true nightmare! With each team 2-2 against the others, the next tiebreaker is division record. The Patriots would get knocked out of the three-way for their inferior 3-3 record, the Jets and Dolphins, who would have identical conference records (7-5). The Dolphins would win the AFC East on the strength of their record against common opponents. The Jets would then win the wildcard tiebreaker against the Patriots due to conference record, but would need help, since they cannot beat the Ravens in a tiebreaker.

    Scenario 5: Bills and Jets win in Week 17
    Sub-scenario 5a: Pats (10-6) and Jets (11-5) win in Week 16, Dolphins Lose (9-7). This is a clear scenario. The Patriots would still need the Ravens to lose twice to make the playoffs.

    Sub-scenario 5b: Pats (10-6) and Dolphins (10-6) win in Week 16, Jets Lose (10-6). It's the three-way tie nightmare!!! Actually this isn't so bad, as the Jets win the AFC East because they would be 3-1 against the other two teams. The Dolphins would win the wild-card tiebreaker because of a superior conference record, and would need two Ravens losses to make the playoffs.

    Sub-scenario 5c: Dolphins (10-6) and Jets (11-5) win in week 16, Patriots lose (9-7). Another easily stratified result, with the Dolphins hoping for help from the Jaguars and Cowboys against the Ravens.

    Sub-scenario 5d: Pats (10-6) win in week 16; Dolphins (9-7) and Jets (10-6) lose. The Jets would win the AFC East due to the superior Division record, while the Patriots need two Baltimore losses to make the playoffs.

    Sub-scenario 5e: Dolphins (10-6) win in week 16; Pats (9-7) and Jets (10-6) lose. The Jets win the head-to-head tiebreak on common opponents, while the Dolphins need help from the Cowboys and Jaguars in the wild card.

    Sub-scenario 5f: Jets (11-5) win in week 16; Pats (9-7) and Dolphins (9-7) lose. It takes quite the scenario for someone to win the AFC East by two games. The Dolphins would still hold any wild-card tiebreak over the Patriots on conference record. Two other teams can finish at 9-7: the Ravens (who beat the Dolphins) and the Texans (who lost to the Ravens). Only the Jets make the playoffs here.

    Scenario 6: Bills and Dolphins win in Week 17
    Sub-scenario 6a: Pats (10-6) and Jets (10-6) win in Week 16, Dolphins Lose (10-6). Happy threeway party, with a resolution identical to 4f-- Dolphins win the AFC East and the Jets have the wild-card tiebreaker over the Patriots, assuming the Ravens lose twice.

    Sub-scenario 6b: Pats (10-6) and Dolphins (11-5) win in Week 16, Jets Lose (9-7). This easy result leaves the Dolphins as the AFC champs, and the Patriots needing help from Dallas and Jacksonville to make the playoffs.

    Sub-scenario 6c: Dolphins (11-5) and Jets (10-6) win in week 16, Patriots lose (10-6). With the Dolphins safely winning the AFC East, the Jets would be the ones winning the rights to hope for two Baltimore losses in order to make the playoffs.

    Sub-scenario 6d: Pats (10-6) win in week 16; Dolphins (10-6) and Jets (9-7) lose. The Dolphins win the AFC East based on conference record while the Patriots wait for the Ravens' results.

    Sub-scenario 6e: Dolphins (11-5) win in week 16; Pats (9-7) and Jets (9-7) lose. With the Dolphins winning the AFC East, the Patriots can't match the Jets' conference record in this scenario. A Jets-Ravens tiebreaker matchup would go to common opponents, with the Ravens winning.

    Sub-scenario 6f: Jets (10-6) win in week 16; Pats (9-7) and Dolphins (10-6) lose. This final scenario gives the Dolphins the AFC East on common oppnents, while the Jets hope for two Ravens losses.

    Conclusions
    I believe those are all the iterations, if there are others please let me know. We are aided by the lack of parity in the AFC, since only two other teams (the Colts and Ravens) have a shot at the wild-card. How important is the week 17 showdown at the Meadowlands? Well, it depends on the fates of all three AFC East teams in week 16, as well as the result of the Monday Night Football game between the Ravens and Cowboys on December 22. Should the Ravens prevail, all else being equal the Dolphins-Jets game will likely decide the AFC East, and the loser will miss the playoffs. The only exceptions are 3b and 4a (Pats win twice, and the winner of the Dolphins-Jets game loses in week 16). The Patriots, meanwhile, need some help next week to have hope of winning the AFC East- every title scenario for them involves either the Jets or Dolphins losing in week 16.

    > http://www.immaculateinning.com/2008...scenarios.html

  2. #2
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Manhattan, NY
    Posts
    9,932
    Quote Originally Posted by kelly View Post
    Sunday, December 14, 2008
    AFC Playoff Scenarios

    The AFC East has its most competitive season since the first season of realignment in 2002. That year, the New England Patriots' two wins over the New York Jets gave them the AFC East title, while the Jets grabbed a wild card over the Dolphins on the strength of a superior within-division record.
    > http://www.immaculateinning.com/2008...scenarios.html
    Interesting stuff, except the Jets won the division over NE on a tie-breaker, not the other way around.

  3. #3
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Shamokin PA
    Posts
    5,713
    thats alot of ****ing reading.. let me sum it up

    when the jets win out.. we will have the 3rd seed

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey Z 6 View Post
    thats alot of ****ing reading.. let me sum it up

    when the jets win out.. we will have the 3rd seed

    Thanks for your summary.

    I was looking for the cliff notes...

  5. #5
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    1,082
    my head hurts

  6. #6
    Does the game matter to the Cardinals? If not, no way he risks getting Warner hurt.

    So pats go 11-5...we have to win out.

  7. #7
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    dunwoody, ga ! !
    Posts
    14,604
    Quote Originally Posted by BrianNY View Post
    my head hurts
    ~ ~ then wear a helmet . . . i do

  8. #8
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Boynton Beach, Florida
    Posts
    6,187
    Quote Originally Posted by kelly View Post
    ~ ~ then wear a helmet . . . i do

    Which head

  9. #9
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Shamokin PA
    Posts
    5,713
    Quote Originally Posted by kelly View Post
    ~ ~ then wear a helmet . . . i do
    who gets a picture like this taken of them?!?

  10. #10
    JetsInsider.com Legend
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Electric Avenue
    Posts
    26,683
    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey Z 6 View Post
    who gets a picture like this taken of them?!?
    It's painfully obvious that "Kelly" is a fraud.

    "Kelly" has yet to ever answer a simple direct question ever asked. Ever. Did I mention ever?

  11. #11
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    dunwoody, ga ! !
    Posts
    14,604
    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey Z 6 View Post
    who gets a picture like this taken of them?!?
    Mikey Z 6 , hi
    fyi : one of my friends took the photo just to prove to my mom that i DID WEAR a helmet.
    cheers !
    kelly ~ ~

  12. #12
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    dunwoody, ga ! !
    Posts
    14,604
    Tuesday December 16, 2008 2:30PM; Updated: Tuesday December 16, 2008 2:30PM
    Dom Bonvissuto > INSIDE THE NFL
    NFL Playoff Projections, Week 16

    It's a scene that's played out on many TV shows, movies and commercials. Normal Guy stands at crowded bar. Normal Guy spots Gorgeous Girl across the room. Eye contact is established. Coy smiles are exchanged. But as Normal Guy makes his way over to introduce himself, Muscle Man boyfriend emerges with a drink for Gorgeous Girl. Normal Guy is left to ponder what might have been.

    In the crowded bar that is the NFL playoff picture, the Carolina Panthers might find out what it's like to be Normal Guy. The Panthers can see the big prize, homefield advantage in the NFC, and can claim it Sunday with a win over the Giants. But should the Panthers lose to the Giants, then lose again at New Orleans in the season finale, Carolina would be in jeopardy of missing the postseason all together and have to watch the Bucs, Falcons or Cowboys have all the fun.

    Below, we break down the playoff picture two ways: 1) As though the season ended today; and 2) As though the season will play out the way we predict it will. We will continue to do this weekly until the playoff field is set.

    (We use the NFL's official tiebreaker procedures to determine seeding. If you have any questions or comments, please email us.)

    ~ ~ ~ AFC

    ~ ~ New York Jets (9-5)

    If The Playoffs Started Today: In; No. 3 seed (win tiebreaker with New England and Miami on three-way, head-to-head)
    Remaining Schedule (Projected Results): at Seattle (W); vs. Miami (W)
    Final Projected Record: 11-5; No. 3 seed
    Extra Point: The cross-country trip this week is not a gimme, but get past it and we like the Jets' chances in a home game against the Dolphins in the final week.

    ~ AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
    Scenario No. 1 seed No. 2 seed No. 3 seed No. 4 seed No. 5 seed No. 6 seed

    If Playoffs Started Today Tennessee Pittsburgh NY Jets Denver Indianapolis Baltimore

    SI.com Projections Tennessee Pittsburgh NY Jets Denver Indianapolis Baltimore

    > http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...-16/index.html

  13. #13
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    dunwoody, ga ! !
    Posts
    14,604
    Quote Originally Posted by Boynton Beach Jets View Post
    Which head
    Boynton Beach Jets, hi ~ ~ well , if you have to ask . .

  14. #14
    Hall of Fame
    Charter JI Member

    Join Date
    May 1999
    Posts
    16,458
    Penis

  15. #15
    All League
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    2,566
    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey Z 6 View Post
    thats alot of ****ing reading.. let me sum it up

    when the jets win out.. we will have the 3rd seed
    I think the Jets win both games in near blow outs. I mean Seattle will score, and so will the Dolphins, but the Jets will control the clock and the game. And Farve looks like the week 5 Farve throwing for TD's and less INT's.

    I know this because, well Santa said so.

  16. #16
    Veteran
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Greenwich Village, NY
    Posts
    2,231
    Is there any way we can clinch this week? We win and the other 2 lose work?

  17. #17
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Manhattan, NY
    Posts
    9,932
    Quote Originally Posted by Lawyers, Guns and Money View Post
    Is there any way we can clinch this week? We win and the other 2 lose work?
    No. If the Jets win this week, and lose next week, then Miami wins the division (Miami is ahead on the 2nd or 3rd tiebreaker). Baltimore will be no worse than 9-6 if they lose and will beat the Jets in a tiebreaker (I believe), and the Colts will be 10-5 if they lose.

  18. #18
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    dunwoody, ga ! !
    Posts
    14,604

  19. #19
    Hall Of Fame
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    LI
    Posts
    20,857
    Kelly - as a Christmas present to some of us here, can you post a pic of you holding a sign that says "Kelly hearts the Jets"? Please?

  20. #20
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Fairfield County, CT
    Posts
    6,870
    Quote Originally Posted by kelly View Post
    Sunday, December 14, 2008
    AFC Playoff Scenarios

    The AFC East has its most competitive season since the first season of realignment in 2002. That year, the New England Patriots' two wins over the New York Jets gave them the AFC East title, while the Jets grabbed a wild card over the Dolphins on the strength of a superior within-division record.
    Why bother reading that tome when its wrong in the second sentence.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Follow Us