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Thread: Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com

  1. #1
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    Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com

    Compiled by Mike Harris

    The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

    AFC East

    Code:
    Team	Rec	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
    NE	6-1	26.7%	11.6	32.4%	17.1%	9.9%	4.2%	17.1%	9.9%	63.6%	49.5%	27.0%	90.6%	3.6%
    NYJ	5-2	14.4%	10.3	9.7%	8.7%	6.6%	4.0%	30.2%	10.7%	29.1%	18.5%	40.9%	70.0%	-15.2%
    MIA	4-3	13.5%	9.3	0.9%	2.1%	2.4%	2.0%	12.8%	13.2%	7.3%	3.0%	26.0%	33.3%	16.7%
    BUF	0-7	-28.3%	2.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
    The table's off a little, here's a screen



    Playoff Scenarios
    This report lists the odds of each team

    * Reaching the Conference Championship Game
    * Winning the Conference Championship Game
    * Winning the Super Bowl

    Code:
      C. App	C. Win  SB Win
    NYG	50.3%	30.6%	16.0%
    KC	43.1%	23.6%	13.1%
    NE	41.1%	22.1%	12.0%
    PIT	36.6%	19.4%	10.4%
    PHI	32.7%	18.8%	10.3%
    ATL	46.0%	22.5%	9.6%
    GB	30.7%	14.4%	6.5%
    TEN	18.3%	8.8%	5.0%
    IND	17.2%	7.8%	3.8%
    NYJ	17.7%	8.0%	3.7%
    NO	17.7%	7.2%	2.8%
    BAL	14.2%	5.8%	2.6%
    MIA	5.7%	2.4%	1.2%
    TB	6.8%	2.0%	0.7%
    SEA	6.6%	1.9%	0.6%
    SD	2.7%	1.1%	0.5%
    HOU	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
    SF	1.8%	0.5%	0.2%
    WAS	1.7%	0.5%	0.2%
    CHI	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
    STL	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
    MIN	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
    DET	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
    OAK	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
    ARI	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
    JAC	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
    CLE	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
    CIN	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

  2. #2
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    Interesting... Would be cool to follow week to week for the last half of the season...

    It will obviously change drastically based on win/strength of opponent or loss/strength of opponent...

    Then factor in what your division and conference contenders did in that same week...

    I like it.

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    Giants as most likely to win the SB? Wow...

  4. #4
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    ... KC # 2 ??? ...











    l_j_r

  5. #5
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    i am actually predicting the giants to the SB this year.

    Steelers over Giants

    or

    Pats over Giants

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    The NFC sucks, and the Giants are hands down the best team in it. That's the only reason their odds are so high. We'll be okay -- we just need to keep winning.

  7. #7
    KC at #2 eliminates a ton of credibility

    Colts are faves in the AFC as long as Peyton is upright. If we had to go on the road and play one of the top AFC contenders, is there anyone you'd rather face less than Peyton? Maybe at Pittsburgh knowing our history there. NE doesn't even scare me slightly.

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    Its amazing that we're not even halfway through the season yet and a non-conference loss appears a significant road block to making the playoffs. The Jets odds drop 15% based on that loss.

    The Pats and Jets have 9 games left to play with the Pats playing the Colts, Stillers, Packers, Jets and Fins. And the Jets have almost as tough a schedule as well.

    There are a lot of stories left to write in this season and I doubt they involve 2 AFC East teams at 14-2.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by crasherino View Post
    Its amazing that we're not even halfway through the season yet and a non-conference loss appears a significant road block to making the playoffs. The Jets odds drop 15% based on that loss.
    Our odds are also affected by what the other teams did. So because New England won and their odds increased, our odds had to decrease. Same with Miami winning.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin View Post
    The NFC sucks, and the Giants are hands down the best team in it. That's the only reason their odds are so high. We'll be okay -- we just need to keep winning.
    I don't agree. The Saints will be the best team in the NFC at seasons end.

  11. #11
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    Tough to give this any credibility with KC at #2. And even though I'm a Pats fan, I can't agree that the Pats are 3 times more likely to win the SB than the Jets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzzsaw View Post
    Our odds are also affected by what the other teams did. So because New England won and their odds increased, our odds had to decrease. Same with Miami winning.
    I hear ya....but its like talking about "Magic Numbers" in July. A tad premature. Those odds will change siginficantly depending on what happens next week. If you want to talk odds of winning X in the last few weeks, sure, I'll read and listen. But less than half the season? Denver was 6-0 at this point last year.

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    the Jets just need to beat the Detroit Lions, that is all.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Austin View Post
    The NFC sucks, and the Giants are hands down the best team in it. .
    This boggles my mind. 3 of their 5 wins have come against dallas 1 win, carolina 1 win detroit 2 wins, Bears no offense line and the texans iffy so far. And now again this week they get a first time starting QB. How are they so good . I bet they don't even win the division.

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    Giants D has turned things around. Eli has a young and improving Receiving corp, decent backs and a gelled experienced O line. If they, mostly the aging O line can stay healthy they have a shot. Factor in a unusually weak NFC East and NFC in general, things could happen.
    Last edited by Apache 51; 11-05-2010 at 08:33 PM.

  16. #16
    wait a second, weren't the giaints cruising this time last season? how'd that turn out. the bottom line is they still have to play the games and what looks like easy games coming up make turn out to be buzzsaws.

  17. #17
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    so...you're sayin there's chance!

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