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Thread: 5 Reasons to trade out of the top 6 in the draft

  1. #1
    All League
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    N.Attleboro, MA
    This was inspired by the rash of draft threads (as if we had anything else to talk about ).

    While everyone talks about moving up in the draft, I contend that, by and large, you are much better trading DOWN, especially if you are in the top 5 or 6. Here's why:

    1. Salary Structure - in the top 5 the structured payment for one of these guys is much higher than even mid to low end first rounders. Familiar case in point, the Jets paid more for Dwayne Robertson than the Pats did for their entire 10 man draft.... COMBINED. That includes Ty Warren who was selected only 9 slots down. This isn't a slam on the Jets, anyone who selected in that slot would have paid more for the player selected than the entire Pats draft. After the 6th and 7th slots, prices seem to drop rather quickly.

    2. The risk/value factor - given the high price a team pays in both dollars and cap numbers, there is a greater risk in having the player not meet the value of the money being laid out. Familiar example is again, DRob. While he didn't embarass himself in 2003, he certainly didn't turn out to be the instant impact player the Jets hoped for when they traded all those draft picks and money for him. So, while he certainly isn't a bust, he certainly didn't give the Jets the bang for their bucks and for that, he was a disappointment in 2003. This isn't a slam on the Jets, I would wager less than half of all top 5 picks produce on the field what they are paid in their first year. Just look at last year.

    1. Carson Palmer - on the bench
    2. Charles Rogers - on the IR
    3. Andre Johnson - impact WR
    4. D Robertson - adequate starting DT
    5 - I can't remember who this guy was - help me out here

    It looks like only one fully played up to the hype and the cost. In fact, compared to the rest DRob at least contributed. BUT the point remains, just because you pick high, doesn't mean you'll be instantly rewarded.
    That is the risk a every team takes when they pick that high. That fact is that more times than not the player WILL NOT deliver the expected impact.

    3. You get more value by trading down - Especially in a draft year like this one. Lately a lot of player personel guys were saying that about 20 players each year are truly worthy of a #1 pick - This year that number explodes to close to 35-40.

    4. Statics over the last several years have stated that chances of getting an all pro player in the first round is greater than in the second, which is greater than the 3rd, etc. That makes sense. What is interesting though, is that within the first round, the chances of getting a all pro player from the top third of the first round, the middle of the first round, and the bottom of the first round, are virtually EQUAL.

    5. The more picks you have the better chance you have of finding a significant contributor. To use a familiar example... again, Chicago with the 3 picks they got from the Jets picked their first team QB (Grossman), their starting DE (Haynes), and a DT(Scott) who would be slated to start if Chicago lets Traylor go and was part of the DT rotation. Would they have been better off with DRob and none of those players?

    If the Pats HAD made the trade, they would have had DRob - but they wouldn't have the #21 pick this year as well as the coveted #32. They wouldn't have had Eugene Wilson, and they wouldn't have had Dan Klecko.

    So given all that, one has to wonder why a team would want to pay the extra premium for a top 5 player, when they have an equal shot of getting an all pro later in the first round for a lot less money.

    BOTTOM LINE - If I'm holding a top 6 pick in this draft, I'm on the phone trying to get the best deal I can for this pick. Regardless of the great feeling I will get standing with my very talented and expensive player in April, my TEAM will probably be a lot better off, if I delay that photo a couple of hours or, even better, get to have a couple of photo ops late in the day.

  2. #2 Legend
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Originally posted by patsfanken@Mar 3 2004, 03:56 PM
    So given all that, one has to wonder why a team would want to pay the extra premium for a top 5 player, when they have an equal shot of getting an all pro later in the first round for a lot less money.
    ken this statement is based on what exactly?

    go to and look at top 5 selections, they have a roughly 50% chance of becoming an All-Pro

    the rest of the round they have a roughly 50% chance of busting out.

    there are 3 types of lies: lies damn lies and statistics

    i want to see a link that says that the chances of getting an allpro in the lower 2/3 of the round are equal to the top 1/3 of the round. everything i've ever read or seen speaks otherwise.

    by the way there's not a single DT prospect in this draft that's as complete a prospect as DRob was in 2003.

  3. #3
    pick 5 was Terence Newman to the Cowboys.

  4. #4
    All Pro
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Let me guess.......ah...ah..ah...because the Jets finally learned from their mistake with D. Robertson?


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